No Extension for John Collins

[capstone21]

I would do the 4 year 90 - 100 million range ... I think his consistency and yearly improvement has earned him 25 per.

 

[DS5]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

4/80 median

4/90 max 

I've been pretty firm on this. 

What do you suggest when JC inevitably says no to that deal? Just let him walk? 

 

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

But is he? I know on Hawksquawk, it's not a debate and one I dont care enough to make. Neither are changing the tide for me. But if we went to RealGM, who would they choose? Would it be 100 to zero for JC? 

Are you really using realgm as reference? You already alluded to it, but they don't know much about the hawks there. Some of the dumbest posts can be found there, specially with regards to the Hawks players. 

[JayBirdHawk]

6 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Stop it! I am not okay with Hayward contract. I think he's massively overpaid and it is bad GMing to give him that contract. But I knew he could get that as he's a big wing. 

I think you forgot you said awhile back that YOU would be willing to pay Hayward $30 mil a year if he opted out. 

[NBASupes]

3 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I think you forgot you said awhile back that YOU would be willing to pay Hayward $30 mil a year if he opted out. 

I dont recall saying I was okay with it as a good move. If the comparison was would I rather do that than give that money to JC, than yes off the principal that I'll rather pay a big wing over an one dimensional big man any and everyday if that big lacks playmaking and defense.

But that's a bad deal no matter how you slice it

[NBASupes]

3 hours ago, DS5 said:

What do you suggest when JC inevitably says no to that deal? Just let him walk? 

 

Are you really using realgm as reference? You already alluded to it, but they don't know much about the hawks there. Some of the dumbest posts can be found there, specially with regards to the Hawks players. 

Prove it more than let him walk. Let him prove it. Harrell had a shot to prove his worth, he lost value. Let him prove it but it can backfire on him. Playoffs big forwards in the east is a different monster even compared to the west. 

Durant

Giannis

Siakam

Harris Simmons 

Tatum

Turner

Bam Bam

When healthy Jon Issac who been a torn in JC side. 

[gurpilo]

I think is sad discussing what is worth one of our young up and coming players. He did not have a real shot to prove he can contribute to win, team was really bad.He has shown enough on the offensive end to think he will, I agree he has some defensive flaws but he has elite offensive and rebounding potential. Hawks were much better team with him than without him, nearly .400 team, that is why I think with this year roster this team is going to win a lot

Soon we will know, my bet is that John is a 20/10, 2nd option on a playoff team that win more games than they lose. Going from last year 0,400 with John to 0,500 with this squad might be reasonable.

And growing....

Edited November 27, 2020 by gurpilo

[NBASupes]

10 minutes ago, gurpilo said:

I think is sad discussing what is worth one of our young up and coming players. He did not have a real shot to prove he can contribute to win, team was really bad.He has shown enough on the offensive end to think he will, I agree he has some defensive flaws but he has elite offensive and rebounding potential. Hawks were much better team with him than without him, nearly .400 team, that is why I think with this year roster this team is going to win a lot

Soon we will know, my bet is that John is a 20/10, 2nd option on a playoff team that win more games than they lose. Going from last year 0,400 with John to 0,500 with this squad might be reasonable.

And growing....

I just think there is a lot of disingenuous behavior when it comes to JC. We love mentioning we was 2-23 without him but going into that stretch considering where Cam and Hunter was, Kevin was dealing with injuries and we all knew it was the toughest part of our schedule for the season,  we would have won 7-9 games with JC and Parker off of the bench but we still had major weaknesses as Travis put a tank squad around our young players. We weren't going to win that many games. 

I feel like Squawkers love pointing out what JC brings and our poor play but excuse his constant shit the bed performances when he's matched up to the best of his position. Trae doesn't have that history. He performs when the lights are bright. He without question is a core piece. He without question is valuable. But is he a legit foundational piece, I don't see it.

Edited November 27, 2020 by NBASupes

[mrhonline]

For me, the hard call would be whether to offer John 5 years or 4 years on the extension.

You can only designate 5-yr contracts to two players, and we all know Trae is getting one of those. Giving John 5 years would likely mean the Hawks could negotiate less AAV on the deal, but would have to trade him if Cam reaches his potential. Not the end of the world, but worth factoring in.

Personally, I'd give him 4 years and then pay him more annually. You could do the "first-year max, then decrease the full 8%" that Hollinger suggested. Ends up as $99M.

1	2	3	4
$28.10	$25.85	$23.60	$21.36

John seems like a smart guy who'd invest that upfront $ well.  You could even add incentives on to the last three years of the deal.

[marco102]

1 hour ago, mrhonline said:

For me, the hard call would be whether to offer John 5 years or 4 years on the extension.

You can only designate 5-yr contracts to two players, and we all know Trae is getting one of those. Giving John 5 years would likely mean the Hawks could negotiate less AAV on the deal, but would have to trade him if Cam reaches his potential. Not the end of the world, but worth factoring in.

Personally, I'd give him 4 years and then pay him more annually. You could do the "first-year max, then decrease the full 8%" that Hollinger suggested. Ends up as $99M.

1	2	3	4
$28.10	$25.85	$23.60	$21.36

John seems like a smart guy who'd invest that upfront $ well.  You could even add incentives on to the last three years of the deal.

I suggested the five year contract with max salary the first yar with 8% declining salaries.

28,000,000.00

25,760,000.00

23,699,200.00

21,803,264.00

20,059,002.88

5 years about $120 million.  My previous suggestion of 5 years $135 was using the wrong cap numbers.

@NBASupes

Quote

The Designated Rookie Rule:

The designated rookie rule allows a team to sign a player entering the fourth year of his rookie scale contract to a longer extension than usual. NBA contracts are typically limited to five total years, which means a player with one season left on his rookie contract could only get four new years tacked onto that deal. However, the designated rookie rule allows a team to give a player five new years on an extension, for a total of six years.

There is no performance criteria required for a player to qualify as a designated rookie — his team just has to make the determination that he’ll be a designated player. The starting salary in a designated rookie extension must be worth at least 25% of the cap, which is typically the maximum salary for a player with fewer than seven years of NBA experience. In some cases, a player’s max can exceed 25%, but that’s getting into Rose rule territory, so we’ll put it on the back-burner for now.

The designated rookie rule only applies to a player who signs an extension before the final year of his rookie contract. If a player finishes his rookie contract, then signs a new five-year contract with his team when he hits restricted free agency, it may ultimately look the same as a designated rookie extension in terms of years and dollars, but he wouldn’t technically be considered a designated rookie.

This may be another reason the Hawks wait to sign John until after the season.  They can only give John a five year contract after the season, if he's not a designated rookie.  Again, you can have multiple five year extensions, but you can only designate two players, who can sign the max in the 4th year.  I think John qualifies as someone we may wait until after the season to sign a five year contract (not necessarily the max, but a five year contract) and if Cam starts living up to our higher expectations, you'll designate him, before he gets to restricted free agency. Trae's a foregone conclusion.

Edited November 27, 2020 by marco102

[JayBirdHawk]

6 hours ago, NBASupes said:

I dont recall saying I was okay with it as a good move. If the comparison was would I rather do that than give that money to JC, than yes off the principal that I'll rather pay a big wing over an one dimensional big man any and everyday if that big lacks playmaking and defense.

But that's a bad deal no matter how you slice it

Well, you did. This wasn't the comparison discussion. I asked you straight up....if Hayward opted out, how much would you be willing to pay him....$30 mil you said, because big wing  something something. 

[bleachkit]

TS has said they have begun discussions with JC's representation. That means they are probably going to get a deal done at some point. No rush though, may as well wait and see how this group looks together.

[NBASupes]

6 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Well, you did. This wasn't the comparison discussion. I asked you straight up....if Hayward opted out, how much would you be willing to pay him....$30 mil you said, because big wing  something something. 

I don't recall saying that honestly. I recall it was in comparison. Can you find where I said it. I looked for it and couldn't find it. Maybe you have better search than me. 

[mrhonline]

11 minutes ago, marco102 said:

This may be another reason the Hawks wait to sign John until after the season.  They can only give John a five year contract after the season, if he's not a designated rookie.  Again, you can have multiple five year extensions, but you can only designate two players, who can sign the max in the 4th year.  I think John qualifies as someone we may wait until after the season to sign a five year contract (not necessarily the max, but a five year contract) and if Cam starts living up to our higher expectations, you'll designate him, before he gets to restricted free agency. Trae's a foregone conclusion.

If you wait until next year to sign John, then he can get $120M over four years from another team. So, I think if you want a five-year deal with him this year, you gotta get closer to $140M.  I'm just speculating with numbers, though.

Hollinger's latest article is interesting for those of you with a sub to The Athletic. He talks about the value of that 5th year to non-glamour markets:

Quote

NBA fans sometimes underestimate the difference between operating in the five or six glamour markets and everywhere else. Memphis is not Miami. In the former, snagging All-NBA talent in free agency is mostly a pipe dream. In the latter, it’s a viable strategy.

As a result, that changes the entire approach. Cap space is worth less and contracts are worth more. Sometimes going out extra years on a player contract is okay, because at least you can make trades with a contract. Conversely, having cap space you can’t give away is a far worse situation.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Just now, NBASupes said:

I don't recall saying that honestly. I recall it was in comparison. Can you find where I said it. I looked for it and couldn't find it. Maybe you have better search than me. 

No you said it straight up to a question I asked because no one though Hayward would opt out. This wasnt a November conversation. It was awhile back.

@Peoriabird then called you on it, saying you were ok paying Harrell $22 and Hayward $30, but not JC. 

[NBASupes]

4 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

No you said it straight up to a question I asked because no one though Hayward would opt out. This wasnt a November conversation. It was awhile back.

@Peoriabird then called you on it, saying you were ok paying Harrell $22 and Hayward $30, but not JC. 

It clearly matters when this conversation took place. 30 million is more like 25 million if the cap is 115 and going to 125 in 2022. Right now, the cap isn't that high. It's 109 and under this percentage, Hayward is clearly overpaid. 

Edited November 27, 2020 by NBASupes

[marco102]

4 minutes ago, mrhonline said:

If you wait until next year to sign John, then he can get $120M over four years from another team. So, I think if you want a five-year deal with him this year, you gotta get closer to $140M.  I'm just speculating with numbers, though.

Hollinger's latest article is interesting for those of you with a sub to The Athletic. He talks about the value of that 5th year to non-glamour markets:

 

Yeah, you're right. I'd def take the four year max in that case, if I were John.

[NBASupes]

I hope Atlanta passes on an early extension if the price is anywhere where you guys think it can be. He hasn't proven shit to me for that type of deal. 

[NBASupes]

Honestly, Harrell is a great comparison, he looked like a no brainer to get a big payday and laid a stinker in the playoffs. Let JC earn his deal. If he's a max cat, he will prove it. 

[RedDawg#8]

@NBASupesWhat are some hard line numbers you want to see from JC that would qualify as him "earning it" in your book?

Edited November 27, 2020 by RedDawg#8

[LucastheThird]

28 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Honestly, Harrell is a great comparison, he looked like a no brainer to get a big payday and laid a stinker in the playoffs. Let JC earn his deal. If he's a max cat, he will prove it. 

The team proved his value for him. 

 

https://soaringdownsouth.com/2019/12/21/atlanta-hawks-john-collins-suspension-ended/#:~:text=In the 2019-20 season,and 4-21 without him.

 

Quote

In the 2019-20 season, the Atlanta Hawks are 2-3 with John Collins and 4-21 without him.

 

 

During the 25 game stretch without JC we went 4-21, a 16% winning average. 

 

With JC, we went 16-26, a 38% win average. 

 

That is impact. Proven impact. PAY THE MAN!