No Extension for John Collins

[Diesel]

I said it when we picked up Gallo.   We don't pick up a player that good to play BU.  He may start off as a BU while we showcase Collins but if we can flip Collins for a Superstar then watch him move. 

Superstar is relative.  It could be Giannis.  It could be Harden.  It could be Embiid.  Right now... We're at the prom... and we have money for two after the prom.  We have a date, but if we haven't promised her that we would be leaving with her.

 

 

[NBASupes]

17 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

@NBASupesWhat are some hard line numbers you want to see from JC that would qualify as him "earning it" in your book?

I need to see the impact. The numbers are fine if they stay the same in some areas but passing, shooting, and defense has to improve as well as impact on winning. Those things improve and he's an impact in the playoffs, pay that man. 

[RedDawg#8]

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

I need to see the impact. The numbers are fine if they stay the same in some areas but passing, shooting, and defense has to improve as well as impact on winning. Those things improve and he's an impact in the playoffs, pay that man. 

I know, but you like advanced stats. What were numbers before and where do you want them to go?

I dont know which advanced stats you deem as valid so I want you to choose.

 

[NBASupes]

17 minutes ago, LucastheThird said:

The team proved his value for him. 

 

https://soaringdownsouth.com/2019/12/21/atlanta-hawks-john-collins-suspension-ended/#:~:text=In the 2019-20 season,and 4-21 without him.

 

 

 

During the 25 game stretch without JC we went 4-21, a 16% winning average. 

 

With JC, we went 16-26, a 38% win average. 

 

That is impact. Proven impact. PAY THE MAN!

No it's not. We had injuries mainly to Kevin. Cam was ass in the 1st half of the season. Jabari was our 2nd best player. Our depth was insanely bad. Our centers were horrendous and we played the toughest stretch of games in that period. We could have won 5 of those games with JC and Kevin playing but expecting more than that is insane considering the circumstances. 

[NBASupes]

Just now, RedDawg#8 said:

I know, but you like advanced stats. What were numbers before and where do you want them to go?

I dont know which advanced stats you deem as valid so I want you to choose.

 

I want to see more impact on winning possession by possession. 

Better defense, especially at the 4. 

Better defense in space. 

Much better passing as someone who gets so many touches. He has so many empty touches. He's a PPP killer. That literally bothers me so much. 

Being impactful when the big you are going against is bigger and more athletic than you. He has to shoot it better with contested, 26% from contested three is not going to cut it. The reason why guys like Issac limits JC with ease is because he's limited to a degree. Close to 80 percent is assisted. His shooting is at it's better when wide open. Doesn't create well or pass well. 

 

I am not expecting him to be much better in most of these areas. I am expecting him to shoot the ball much better contested. I remember Moose really improved at this in contract year and considering JC's work ethic and will to improve, I want to see him take a major leap in this area. 

I ultimately see JC as a 8.5 overall which is currently what he is. I really want to see him become more of a shooter and more consistent so he's in that lane of Tobias Harris long term. Right now, he's just a shade below that due to his defense just not being any good as a 4. 

His lack of versatility on both ends is my biggest pet peeve. 

[LucastheThird]

27 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

No it's not. We had injuries mainly to Kevin. Cam was ass in the 1st half of the season. Jabari was our 2nd best player. Our depth was insanely bad. Our centers were horrendous and we played the toughest stretch of games in that period. We could have won 5 of those games with JC and Kevin playing but expecting more than that is insane considering the circumstances. 

Let's dig even deeper into the 4 wins we had without JC. 

 

Nov 5 vs Spurs 108-100

Trae - 29 points, 13 assists

Jabari Parker - 19 points, 8 rebounds

D. Hunter - 16 points, 8 rebounds

 

Nov 12 vs Nuggets 125-121

Trae - 42 points, 11 assists

Jabari Parker - 20 points, 9 rebounds

Alex Len - 17 points, 7 rebounds

 

Dec 2 vs Warriors 104-79

Trae - 24 points, 7 assists

D. Hunter - 18 points, 4 rebounds

Damian Jones - 16 points, 8 rebounds

 

Dec 8 vs Hornets 122-107

Trae - 30 points, 9 assists, 7 rebounds

Jabari Parker - 19 points, 7 rebounds

Vince Carter - 17 points

 

We needed someone on the team to step up into JC's production and be Trae's Robin. It was either Jabari or Hunter, but they both were inconsistent (way more understandable for a rookie Hunter). More often than not, Trae was left without a running mate during this stretch. This is JC impact, we couldn't win without a monster game from Trae. 

Edited November 27, 2020 by LucastheThird

[hawkster911]

Nuking the details.  Sign JC to whatever Schlenk deems feasible. 
 

Schlenk found value for JC (#19 pick) + package players/pick and flip for a superstar. 
 

A superstar coming to ATL...that would be the ultimate GM master planning to pair with Trae.  Bet!
 

 

[AHF]

8 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Prove it more than let him walk. Let him prove it. Harrell had a shot to prove his worth, he lost value. Let him prove it but it can backfire on him. Playoffs big forwards in the east is a different monster even compared to the west. 

Durant

Giannis

Siakam

Harris Simmons 

Tatum

Turner

Bam Bam

When healthy Jon Issac who been a torn in JC side. 

 

7 hours ago, NBASupes said:

 his constant shit the bed performances when he's matched up to the best of his position. 

Let's see how these compare:

John Collins BASELINE - Career Averages

16.2 ppg

.571% FG%

8.8 rpg

 

Kevin Durant (Max Contract)

20 ppg on 81% FG%, 9.5 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.0 bpg - Above career average for ppg, FG% and rpg

Pascal Siakam (Max Contract)

Below career averages in ppg and fg% but better than Siaka in FG%, 3pt%, rpg and bpg

Tobias Harris (>$33M per) /Ben Simmons (Max Contract)

Above career average for ppg and FG% - right on par for rpg.  Way better than Harris in scoring efficiency and rebounding.

Below career averages for scoring and above in rebounding.  Better than Simmons in FG%, 3pt%, rpg.  Simmons obviously the much better playmaker.

Jayson Tatum (Max Contract)

On par re career average in ppg, above in fg% and below in rpg.  Much higher fg% and rpg than Tatum.

Myles Turner ($18M per)

Better than Turner in scoring, scoring efficiency and rebounding (by large margins on the scoring side).  Above career averages in rpg and fg%.  Below career avg in ppg.

Bam Adebayo (Max Contract)

Below career averages in everything but better than Bam as a scorer in every way.  Surprisingly equal in blocks in these matchups.

So the conclusions I have from these:

(a) JC was a more efficient scorer than every single opponent in these matchups.

(b) if you add these all up, he is very close to his career averages (except in fg% where he is higher).

(c) Where JC lags behind these largely Max contract players in these stats is his contribution as a playmaker.

If JC's H2H performance is the benchmark for his contract and most of these guys are earning $30M+, it gives his agent plenty of room to make arguments he should be well above $20M.

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

 

Let's see how these compare:

John Collins BASELINE - Career Averages

16.2 ppg

.571% FG%

8.8 rpg

 

Kevin Durant (Max Contract)

20 ppg on 81% FG%, 9.5 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.0 bpg - Above career average for ppg, FG% and rpg

Pascal Siakam (Max Contract)

Below career averages in ppg and fg% but better than Siaka in FG%, 3pt%, rpg and bpg

Tobias Harris (>$33M per) /Ben Simmons (Max Contract)

Above career average for ppg and FG% - right on par for rpg.  Way better than Harris in scoring efficiency and rebounding.

Below career averages for scoring and above in rebounding.  Better than Simmons in FG%, 3pt%, rpg.  Simmons obviously the much better playmaker.

Jayson Tatum (Max Contract)

On par re career average in ppg, above in fg% and below in rpg.  Much higher fg% and rpg than Tatum.

Myles Turner ($18M per)

Better than Turner in scoring, scoring efficiency and rebounding (by large margins on the scoring side).  Above career averages in rpg and fg%.  Below career avg in ppg.

Bam Adebayo (Max Contract)

Below career averages in everything but better than Bam as a scorer in every way.  Surprisingly equal in blocks in these matchups.

So the conclusions I have from these:

(a) JC was a more efficient scorer than every single opponent in these matchups.

(b) if you add these all up, he is very close to his career averages (except in fg% where he is higher).

(c) Where JC lags behind these largely Max contract players in these stats is his contribution as a playmaker.

If JC's H2H performance is the benchmark for his contract and most of these guys are earning $30M+, it gives his agent plenty of room to make arguments he should be well above $20M.

These numbers aren't telling, it don't tell me shit! Let's look at the facts: 

Bam/JC

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!/?PlayerID=1628381&VsPlayerID=1628389

JC numbers with Bam on the court drop tremendously. 

Bam is more productive when JC is off the court but he's more effective when JC is on the court. 

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!/?PlayerID=1628389&VsPlayerID=1628381&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season

Siakam/JC

JC was more effective with Siakam on the court

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!/?PlayerID=1628381&VsPlayerID=1627783&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season

Siakam was just as effective with JC on or off the court

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!/?PlayerID=1627783&VsPlayerID=1628381&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season

JC is more productive than Turner while Turner productivity drops with JC on the court. A win for JC. 

JC and Tatum stats are strange. Both are more productive when both on are the court but both are far less productive when the other is off the court. 

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!/?PlayerID=1628381&VsPlayerID=1628369&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!/?PlayerID=1628369&VsPlayerID=1628381&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season

Both JC and Simmons were both much better with the other on the court than the other way around. Horford gave Collins a lot of issues. 

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!/?PlayerID=1628381&VsPlayerID=1627732&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season

 

 

 

[LucastheThird]

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

These numbers aren't telling, it don't tell me shit! Let's look at the facts: 

Bam/JC

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!/?PlayerID=1628381&VsPlayerID=1628389

JC numbers with Bam on the court drop tremendously. 

Bam is more productive when JC is off the court but he's more effective when JC is on the court. 

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!/?PlayerID=1628389&VsPlayerID=1628381&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season

Siakam/JC

JC was more effective with Siakam on the court

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!/?PlayerID=1628381&VsPlayerID=1627783&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season

Siakam was just as effective with JC on or off the court

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!/?PlayerID=1627783&VsPlayerID=1628381&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season

JC is more productive than Turner while Turner productivity drops with JC on the court. A win for JC. 

JC and Tatum stats are strange. Both are more productive when both on are the court but both are far less productive when the other is off the court. 

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!/?PlayerID=1628381&VsPlayerID=1628369&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!/?PlayerID=1628369&VsPlayerID=1628381&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season

Both JC and Simmons were both much better with the other on the court than the other way around. Horford gave Collins a lot of issues. 

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/#!/?PlayerID=1628381&VsPlayerID=1627732&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season

 

 

 

That tells me that his only contemporary who gave him issues is Bam. Nobody else gave him trouble and they are all max players. He is on their level and you just proved it. 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

38 minutes ago, LucastheThird said:

Let's dig even deeper into the 4 wins we had without JC. 

 

Nov 5 vs Spurs 108-100

Trae - 29 points, 13 assists

Jabari Parker - 19 points, 8 rebounds

D. Hunter - 16 points, 8 rebounds

 

Nov 12 vs Nuggets 125-121

Trae - 42 points, 11 assists

Jabari Parker - 20 points, 9 rebounds

Alex Len - 17 points, 7 rebounds

 

Dec 2 vs Warriors 104-79

Trae - 24 points, 7 assists

D. Hunter - 18 points, 4 rebounds

Damian Jones - 16 points, 8 rebounds

 

Dec 8 vs Hornets 122-107

Trae - 30 points, 9 assists, 7 rebounds

Jabari Parker - 19 points, 7 rebounds

Vince Carter - 17 points

 

We needed someone on the team to step up into JC's production and be Trae's Robin. It was either Jabari or Hunter, but they both were inconsistent (way more understandable for a rookie Hunter). More often than not, Trae was left without a running mate during this stretch. This is JC impact, we couldn't win without a monster game from Trae. 

 

Also this nugget about Trae.

The Hawks were 0 - 36 this season, when Trae was ( +1 ) or below on the floor.

[AHF]

6 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

These numbers aren't telling, it don't tell me shit! Let's look at the facts: 

 

Bear in mind that I gave almost nothing but facts in my post.  I'm not sure you are aware of it, but you get very charged up discussing JC.  Lines like the "don't tell me shit!" are the norm in your responses to people on this subject.  

Appreciate the additional data you posted but I'm not seeing a clear pattern that he shrinks against these opponents even after looking through your links.  

Again, I'm fine with TS waiting until next summer to resign JC if they don't find agreement on his price.  That will give us more data on better par.  By that, I mean that pretty much every one of these opponents has had a ton more support on their teams which makes life easier for them on both sides of the court.  Nobody can ignore Embiid when deciding how to guard Simmons/Harris but they could easily do that when facing the frontcourt of the Hawks last year.  Playing against the Hawks meant scouting for Trae first and JC second with everyone else a distant afterthought.  Next year, teams won't be able to key on either of these guys in the same way. 

[mrhonline]

1 hour ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

The Hawks were 0 - 36 this season, when Trae was ( +1 ) or below on the floor.

As Trae goes...so go the Hawks.

[JTB]

5 hours ago, Diesel said:

I said it when we picked up Gallo.   We don't pick up a player that good to play BU.  He may start off as a BU while we showcase Collins but if we can flip Collins for a Superstar then watch him move. 

Superstar is relative.  It could be Giannis.  It could be Harden.  It could be Embiid.  Right now... We're at the prom... and we have money for two after the prom.  We have a date, but if we haven't promised her that we would be leaving with her.

 

 

 

collins won’t be enough to land a superstar alone so that ain’t going to happen.

 

[AHF]

40 minutes ago, JTB said:

 

collins won’t be enough to land a superstar alone so that ain’t going to happen.

 

We've got the pieces if someone wants to move a superstar.  Collins wouldn't be enough alone but if there is a firesale he could be the centerpiece of a deal.

[NBASupes]

4 hours ago, AHF said:

Bear in mind that I gave almost nothing but facts in my post.  I'm not sure you are aware of it, but you get very charged up discussing JC.  Lines like the "don't tell me shit!" are the norm in your responses to people on this subject.  

Appreciate the additional data you posted but I'm not seeing a clear pattern that he shrinks against these opponents even after looking through your links.  

Again, I'm fine with TS waiting until next summer to resign JC if they don't find agreement on his price.  That will give us more data on better par.  By that, I mean that pretty much every one of these opponents has had a ton more support on their teams which makes life easier for them on both sides of the court.  Nobody can ignore Embiid when deciding how to guard Simmons/Harris but they could easily do that when facing the frontcourt of the Hawks last year.  Playing against the Hawks meant scouting for Trae first and JC second with everyone else a distant afterthought.  Next year, teams won't be able to key on either of these guys in the same way. 

I meant his numbers against those guys directly. I was too indirect in my statement and part of the reason I went to sleep after this post for hours as I was tired.

Edited November 27, 2020 by NBASupes

[JTB]

30 minutes ago, AHF said:

We've got the pieces if someone wants to move a superstar.  Collins wouldn't be enough alone but if there is a firesale he could be the centerpiece of a deal.

Yeah that I agree with 

 

[terrell]

On 11/25/2020 at 5:14 PM, JayBirdHawk said:

We have discussed a small ball line where Collins is at C with Gallo at PF. 

 

Ugg.......Free ticket to the rack..lol

[terrell]

On 11/26/2020 at 11:06 AM, NBASupes said:

Who's going to give a 6'10 225 PF who plays limited defense and can't create his own shot a monster offer?

[NBASupes]

10 minutes ago, terrell said:

Leon Rose isn't your normal Knicks GM and they got Toppin