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Official Game Thread: Hawks at Celtics


lethalweapon3

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12 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

LeBron is 6'8.5... BAREFOOT. With shoes, he's 6'10

To get an accurate height, you take ones height BAREFOOT.  The listed heights are supposed to be their ACTUAL height. The whole "with shoes" crap was pushed by agents to make their clients sound taller. But clearly some these heights are still wrong. Ben Simmons is not 6'11", if you think he is, you're blind. 

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3 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

To get an accurate height, you take ones height BAREFOOT.  The listed heights are supposed to be their ACTUAL height. The whole "with shoes" crap was pushed by agents to make their clients sound taller. But clearly some these heights are still wrong. Ben Simmons is not 6'11", if you think he is, you're blind. 

:ahf2:

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4 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

His teammates aren't solid enough for Trae to play like John Stockton.  Trae has to be Allen Iverson.

Trey Iverson.

Just FWIW - Trae's rookie year scoring efficiency is not far off from Iverson's career high.  Trae's scoring this year is way more efficient than anything Iverson ever did.  I think Iverson gets overrated due to the strong defensive teams that were built around his game.  I think Trae can be significantly more impactful than Iverson offensively.  (For example, while Philly was never among the league leaders offensively I think Trae can lead a team that is.)

4 hours ago, bleachkit said:

What exactly is meant by the term "aggressive"?  That he's taking a lot shots? Again, I don't think there is statistically significant correlation between turnovers and number of shots. 

It isn't a huge gap and lives right on the fuzzy edge of statistical significance (in particular, using his 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons the gap does not qualify using a 0.05 standard but is very close such that similar results over a slightly larger sample size will flip that to statistically significant).

2020-21 

20+ FGA:  4.4 TO average

<20 FGA:  4.18 TO average

 

2019-20

20+ FGA:  5.0 TO average

<20 FGA:  4.48 TO average

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2 hours ago, AHF said:

Just FWIW - Trae's rookie year scoring efficiency is not far off from Iverson's career high.  Trae's scoring this year is way more efficient than anything Iverson ever did.  I think Iverson gets overrated due to the strong defensive teams that were built around his game.  I think Trae can be significantly more impactful than Iverson offensively.  (For example, while Philly was never among the league leaders offensively I think Trae can lead a team that is.)

It isn't a huge gap and lives right on the fuzzy edge of statistical significance (in particular, using his 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons the gap does not qualify using a 0.05 standard but is very close such that similar results over a slightly larger sample size will flip that to statistically significant).

2020-21 

20+ FGA:  4.4 TO average

<20 FGA:  4.18 TO average

 

2019-20

20+ FGA:  5.0 TO average

<20 FGA:  4.48 TO average

Let's take a closer without using 20FGA as an arbitrary boundary and with assists this year...

Date          OPP          FGA         AST       TO

12/23        CHI           12             7            4

12/26        MEM        24             9            2

12/28        DET          13             6            3

12/30        BKN          18            11          5

01/01        BKN          21             7           3

01/02        CLE           16            10          6

01/04        NY             22            14          8

01/06        CHA           9              3            7

01/09        CHA           19           10          5

01/11         PHI            19           8            0

01/15        UTAH         11           7            2      

01/16        POR           23           11          5

01/18        MIN            8            13           6

01/20        DET            26          10           2

01/22        MIN            22          5             7

01/26        LAC            23          5             3

01/27        BKN           22          14           3

01/29        WSH          18           5            2

02/01        LAL            15           16          7

02/03        DAL            18            9           4

02/06       TOR             15           13         7

02/10       DAL              22          15         3

02/12       SA                15           3          2

02/13       IND               9            14         3

02/15       NY                16            8         4

02/17       BOS              20           8          8

 

 

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11 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Let's take a closer without using 20FGA as an arbitrary boundary and with assists this year...

Date          OPP          FGA         AST       TO

12/23        CHI           12             7            4

12/26        MEM        24             9            2

12/28        DET          13             6            3

12/30        BKN          18            11          5

01/01        BKN          21             7           3

01/02        CLE           16            10          6

01/04        NY             22            14          8

01/06        CHA           9              3            7

01/09        CHA           19           10          5

01/11         PHI            19           8            0

01/15        UTAH         11           7            2      

01/16        POR           23           11          5

01/18        MIN            8            13           6

01/20        DET            26          10           2

01/22        MIN            22          5             7

01/26        LAC            23          5             3

01/27        BKN           22          14           3

01/29        WSH          18           5            2

02/01        LAL            15           16          7

02/03        DAL            18            9           4

02/06       TOR             15           13         7

02/10       DAL              22          15         3

02/12       SA                15           3          2

02/13       IND               9            14         3

02/15       NY                16            8         4

02/17       BOS              20           8          8

 

 

No matter what line you draw it goes s down as the shot attempts go down.  I broke it down 4 different ways with the same trend.  When you break it down every 5, etc. the gap is smaller but still there.

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3 minutes ago, AHF said:

No matter what line you draw it goes s down as the shot attempts go down.  I broke it down 4 different ways with the same trend.  When you break it down every 5, etc. the gap is smaller but still there.

The game where he had zero turnovers, he took nineteen shots. It looks like turnovers are more closely tied with higher assists than shot attempts.

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3 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

The game where he had zero turnovers, he took nineteen shots. It looks like turnovers are more closely tied with higher assists than shot attempts.

You can correlate those and see if that is a stronger connection.  I used this season and last to have a more meaningful number of games.

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18 hours ago, NBASupes said:

:ahf2:

Cheer up, supes.  Maybe they'll start playing in socks only?

18 hours ago, bleachkit said:

Pritchard is gonna be good. 

You're missing me, bleachk.  I'm not saying the guy's not good, I'm saying a lot of detractors describe Trae in a way that actually matches this Pritchard kid.

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2 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Cheer up, supes.  Maybe they'll start playing in socks only?

You're missing me, bleachk.  I'm not saying the guy's not good, I'm saying a lot of detractors describe Trae in a way that actually matches this Pritchard kid.

Do hockey players have their listed height taken in their skates? Or football players in their cleats? Just wondering.

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20 hours ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Right. Other players get the continuation on way less clear  instances. Refs have swallowed their whistles a lot on Trae and he is still making teams pay. 

Yep.   Unfortunately the general public has slapped him with no defense/foul baiter and it's just so wrong.   

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https://www.clnsmedia.com/jeff-teague-lineup-decision-emblematic-of-growing-brad-stevens-dilemma/

Jeff Teague has already been figured out in Boston. I thought it was quite entertaining how Celts fans thought losing Hayward and signing Teague and Thompson qualified as a successful offseason.

That team has a solid core of Brown, Tatum, Walker, and Smart. But beyond that they have are lacking in depth.

And speaking of height in shoes, let's not mention how they have to hide the 5'11 Walker on defense. But you wont hear that narrative the same way you hear people use it against Trae, who is taller.

https://sports.yahoo.com/kemba-walker-reveals-real-height-023258431.html

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3 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

https://www.clnsmedia.com/jeff-teague-lineup-decision-emblematic-of-growing-brad-stevens-dilemma/

Jeff Teague has already been figured out in Boston. I thought it was quite entertaining how Celts fans thought losing Hayward and signing Teague and Thompson qualified as a successful offseason.

This was plain comical.  Folks, including ol' Scalabrine on NBARadio, spoke of Thompson as if that was some tremendous signing.

The guy Scalabrine literally said signing Thompson was a coup.  Like, huh?

The best thing is how Dan E. strAinge says their problems are shooting and interior defense ... but apparently wasn't high on Myles Turner (who literally solves/helps both those issues).

They may get back at us tonight, they may not.  But while you watch Capela/Collins feasting down low and Trae getting to the rim unfettered, just remember how easily they could've obtained Turner and probably Doug McDermott for a guy they lost for nothin' (the TPE is nothin' til you do somethin' with it).

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2 hours ago, kg01 said:

This was plain comical.  Folks, including ol' Scalabrine on NBARadio, spoke of Thompson as if that was some tremendous signing.

The guy Scalabrine literally said signing Thompson was a coup.  Like, huh?

The best thing is how Dan E. strAinge says their problems are shooting and interior defense ... but apparently wasn't high on Myles Turner (who literally solves/helps both those issues).

They may get back at us tonight, they may not.  But while you watch Capela/Collins feasting down low and Trae getting to the rim unfettered, just remember how easily they could've obtained Turner and probably Doug McDermott for a guy they lost for nothin' (the TPE is nothin' til you do somethin' with it).

Boston never ceases to amaze me. The only thing, and I mean only thing, that keeps me from outright publicly clowning those bums, is the fact that good or bad, they tend to always have our number.

If that ever starts to change, Im on them like Peo on LP lol

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On 2/17/2021 at 5:25 PM, lethalweapon3 said:

maxresdefault.jpg

“I liked Beard Club for Men so much… I bought the company!”

 

I didn’t have many wild NBA preseason predictions, except for this one:

Danny Ainge, quietly, is preparing for his exit from Boston.

Ainge doesn’t wait for rumors to swell before he decides he wants to spend more time with family. You’ll recall the Phoenix Suns were just six weeks into the 1999-2000 season, doing just fine at 13-7 when Ainge, then their 40-year-old coach and the newest inductee of the Oregon Sports Hall of Fame, said he wasn’t “jumping ship.” He was “diving overboard,” he insisted, “to save his family,” leaving his still-young star backcourt of Jason Kidd and Penny Hardaway on deck, scratching their heads, without a paddle.

Danny righted the ship back home, then rowed his boat ashore at Boston, his legendary old team from the 1980s, to preside over basketball ops in 2003. He turned the tide for the Celtics with some celebrated maneuvers in 2007’s offseason. Since Boston earned its last banner in 2008, he has swung one big offseason deal after another to keep the C’s afloat. My hunch is, he sees it’s time to set sail again.

Ainge moved his family to the tidy suburb of Wellesley, Massachusetts upon harpooning the Celtics executive gig. But his soul screams, “West Coast Guy.” A three-sport high school All-American at Eugene High in Oregon, Ainge tantalized scouts as a collegian in Provo, Utah. Perhaps while playing with the Blue Jays in Toronto while studying at Brigham Young, he realized basketball might grant him more personal agency to move about. But he couldn’t complain about getting drafted by Larry Bird’s Celtics in 1981.

After getting traded away in 1989, Ainge remained on West Coast teams – the Kings, the home-state Blazers, the Suns, for the balance of his NBA career. He retired in 1995 as a Sun, and after a spell as a TNT analyst he returned to run Phoenix’s team as its head coach the following season.

He’s had his share of health issues, notably mild heart attacks in 2009 and in 2019, and you could do a lot worse than hanging around Beantown when you’re in need of top-notch medical care. But there’s this feeling, on my end, that Danny left his heart somewhere within 750 miles or so of San Francisco.

It’s impressive that, as a GM/PBO for nearly 20 years with the same team, Ainge has never had to fire a head coach. Jim O’Brien sparred with Ainge’s roster re-shuffling before pulling an Ainge himself and resigning in the midst of the 2003-04 season. John Carroll finished out that season as an interim, then Ainge hired TV analyst Doc Rivers.

Rivers endured feisty rookie guard Rajon Rondo, hung on long enough to win his ring with The Three Amigos, and looked on sadly as the plan to hand the leadership torch over to Rondo, a four-time All-Star, went up in flames as his pupil suffered through one debilitating injury after another. Shortly after one in the middle of 2012-13 quashed Rajon’s season and the Celtics’ title dreams, Doc and Danny finagled a trade that sent the coach to the Clippers.

And then, there’s Coach Brad. The former Final Four wayfaring Butler U. coach, Brad Stevens has been at the helm since 2013. His Celtics could never quite get past LeBron James’ Cavaliers in the conference finals, then came up short in 2020’s conference finals against LeBron’s old coach, Erik Spoelstra, when the Miami heat made it out of the East to face James’ Lakers last season.

While banners ultimately matter for this franchise, the Celtics haven’t had a 50-win season since 2017-18, Stevens’ peak season derailed by Kyrie Irving’s injury a mere month before the playoffs arrived. Percentagewise, it’s not looking likely they’ll be in the ballpark this season, either.

The path to championship contention has been rocky this season for the Celtics. They have their current Big Three edition (Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum) together finally, now that Walker is working his way through injury management for his knee and Tatum is withstanding his personal bout with COVID. But Marcus Smart has been out all this month due to a strained calf, while Daniel Theis injured his finger midway through a bad loss at Washington, pressing Tristan Thompson (how is that man not 30 yet?) and the semi-sized Semi Ojeleye into extended frontline minutes.

Boston (14-13) inched back above .500 with a relieving 112-99 win here at TD Garden, against a Denver Nuggets team also initiating a back-to-back, last night. But as they make a quick turnaround to face the struggling Atlanta Hawks tonight (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, NBC Sports Boston) and on Friday, inching above .500 in the Eastern Conference is not where Ainge, Stevens, and the Celtics’ fanbase wish to be.

Ainge has been quick to shield his coach from the sour dispositions overheard on Boston tahk radio. “We’re not playing with the passion that we need,” Ainge acknowledged to Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe a few days ago, adding, “I think that’s on the players. And the players on the team are on me.”

“This was a team that was put together by me,” Ainge continued. The extent of Boston’s offseason, in a nutshell, was trading away Stevens’ former Butler star Gordon Hayward for not much more than a trade exception that’s unlikely to be used, coming away with Payton Pritchard and Aaron Nesmith in the Draft, dispatching Enes Kanter to Portland for some second-rounders, and adding Hawks two-timer Jeff Teague and Thompson to patch up the roster holes. That doesn’t scream, “GM of a conference finalist going full-bore to push his club over the hump into The Finals.”

“We’re not playing with enough consistency and,” (trigger warning, Hawks fans: here comes The U Word!) “urgency, and it’s my job to look to see what we can do to improve the team, but that’s always much harder than improving from within.”

Those comments are intended to comfort Celtic fans and take some heat off of Coach Brad (a little heat around Boston right now would be nice). But, as has been well documented around here, Ainge rarely ever makes a splash before the NBA Trade Deadlines arrive. While the Celtics strive to achieve full health and, indeed, improve from within, my guess is that Ainge sees his marathon of pulling Boston’s strings has run its course.

Having gone 5-10 over the past month, Boston got back into the win column by handling business at home yesterday against a Nuggets team that itself was without some key pieces – Paul Millsap, Will Barton, Monte Morris, P.J. Dozier, Gary Harris. The C’s resorted to letting Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray (combined 68 points, but 12 TOs) have at it while neutralizing their teammates’ abilities to chip in. Given that Denver had to overplay guys like Zeke Nnaji, R.J. Hampton and Facundo Campazzo while saving up bodies for the Wizards today, the victory for the Celts, while resounding, wasn’t terribly reassuring.

Even a series sweep as a gift from the sputtering Hawks is unlikely to win over hahts and minds up in what used to be known as Brady Country. The Celts will swing south next week, visiting the Pelicans and then the Mavs one day before arriving at State Farm Arena. Everyone wants to see a strong finish by this team before Brown (career-highs of 26.0 PPG, 3.4 APG, 55.7 2FG/41.5 3FG/75.2 FT shooting splits), a fixture of the summertime protests here in Atlanta, returns home once more, for a likely spot in the All-Star Game. The building of positive momentum up the conference standings, regaining parity with the Bucks, Nets and Sixers, need not wait for the second-half schedule to commence.

Much has been made of the Celtics’ offensive ills, characterized by excessive iso-ball (5th in isolation play frequency, but 5th-worst with 41.3 eFG% on those plays, barely better than Atlanta’s 39.4%) and poor finishing around the basket.  Finally heeding former Celtic Dominque Wilkins’ pleas, Boston swung the ball from side-to-side last night.

They produced decent looks, particularly outside the three-point line above the arc (Brown was 5-for-9 from this variable range). Brown turned over the ball a season-high seven times, and Tatum suffered through a poor perimeter shooting night. But they and many Celtics were especially good getting deep in the paint and scoring (17-for-20 within 7 feet vs. DEN, as per bball-ref). Without guys like Millsap around to be a bother, Boston did a better job of reading the defense while penetrating, producing opportunities to score or create for teammates.

Lloyd Pierce has left the Hawks to spend more time with family, too, but just momentarily. Pierce’s second child is on the way, leaving head coaching duties to Nate McMillan, who split last year’s season series versus Stevens while coaching Indiana. Whether or not Nate Mac turns around the Hawks’ fortunes during their stay in Boston, if Atlanta (11-16; 1-7 this month) continues their string of lagging starts and dragging finishes, as evidenced in Monday’s 123-112 flop in New York, LP may soon wind up with more family time than he anticipated.

Struggling coaches, like Pierce and Stevens, offer up the old secret recipe of “We got good looks, we’re just not hitting shots!”, and “Our opponents just couldn’t seem to miss!”, with a few added herbs and spices, during increasingly dour press conferences. For the Hawks, sitting around and waiting to see find out what kind of shooting day their opponents will have is not getting the job done.

The only teams near Atlanta, with their 11.0 opponent TO% this month, are the Jazz and the Suns. But those teams (now) have high-caliber defenders around the perimeter (Conley, CP3 and Bridges), no longer just relying on Donovan Mitchell and Devin Booker to step it up and force tough shots on that end. Those teams are winning, although I bet Phoenix would have liked a second-half stop or two last night against Brooklyn to keep their winning streak alive.

If Cam Reddish (four steals, total, and 1.9 D-Rebs/game in 8 February starts) is no longer in the business of producing turnovers and getting stops, then he must at least be capable of staying in front of his man when his opponent’s handling the rock.

Reddish, Trae Young and Kevin Huerter must entice Boston’s backcourt ballhandlers to settle for, “Oh, heck, why not?” contested jumpers and rely on C+C Muscle Factory members John Collins and Clint Capela to limit opportunities for putbacks and second-chances. They’ll get somewhat of a break tonight, as Walker sits and a rested Teague (DNP vs. DEN) starts with assistance from the eager-beaver rookie Pritchard (7 assists, 1 TO vs. DEN; 42.4 3FG% this month), but adherence to defensive principles remains the same. Tony Snell (sore Achilles) is available to help out as well.

At the other end, shooting one’s way out of a slump occasionally entails going 1-for-4 on threes, not 2-for-8 in games like Reddish had on Monday. You’re not getting out from under sub-20-percent perimeter shooting by lofting seven or eight chances every game, as was the case for Cam in the last two losses, extending Atlanta’s record to 0-7 when he takes more than five 3FG attempts (1-2 last season, the losses in blowout fashion versus the Bulls and Cavs).

As he demonstrated by fumbling away Atlanta’s last chance at getting off the mat to seize the lead in New York, Cam is over-dribbling and not electing to pass the ball much. Zero games with four or more assists, while shooting as wretched as he has been, is the definition of a “Ball Stopper”. To cut down on the “BS”, Reddish must understand with his open looks that there’s a reason he’s as open as Narragansett Bay, and he must commit instead to more intentional drive-and-kick action, aided by teammates getting open for passes, helping Atlanta’s offense (52.4 February eFG%, 23rd in NBA and just above Boston’s 51.3%) avoid another day of doomed dormancy.

Cam’s on a streak of eight games with at least one assist, but as Huerter understands (5.0 APG, 1.6 TOs/game, 1.3 SPG and 41.5 3FG% in February) coming away with a paltry one or two assists, and few defensive stops or transition buckets, is insufficient. Red Velvet hasn’t done much of late with his own green light (8-for-30 from the field in last 3 games, incl. 4-for-20 on threes), but at least he gets the hint that if his shot isn’t falling, he has to do more for his team than just keep firing away until it does.

Ainge has exhausted what once seemed to be a treasure trove of other teams’ first-round picks, moves that cemented his “Trader Danny” reputation. Brown himself arrived as a result of the Nets getting thirsty for KG and Paul Pierce in 2013. Tatum came by way of the Sixers’ thirst to move up and take Markelle Fultz, Philly dangling Sacramento’s fumbled 2017 pick as bait.

The Celtics have all of their own future first-rounders in tow, but with the organizational bent against tanking (don’t have anybody recalling the big chase back in the day for Tim Duncan), it’s unlikely to see much of that bearing fruit, not in the form of out-the-box future stars. With eleven Celts under contract for next season, Theis being the most noteworthy exception, with Stevens locked down under a multi-year contract extension, with his middling team over-the-cap and hard-capped, and with Giannis locked down for the foreseeable future, I don’t get the sense Ainge wants to hang around much longer to see things play out.

Danny (and eldest son Austin, current Celtics player personnel chief) look West and see a younger son, Tanner, serving as a county commissioner in Provo. Cooper Ainge tried his luck as a walk-on at BYU. Youngest son Crew went to play ball at Utah State before returning to The Bay State to finish his college years at hometown Babson College. Yet another BYU grad, Danny’s nephew was with the G-League’s SLC Stars, waived last week only after injuring his foot in the Glubble.

The Celtics, anchored by passing local legends Tom Heinsohn, KC Jones, Frank Ramsey and John Havlicek, seem to have been the only reason Ainge ever came East, and the organization, with its waning lore, appears to be the only thing still tethering his family to this coast. The destiny is near-manifest.

Out in L.A., LeBron and AD aren’t going anywhere, and you can best believe the wannabe contenders in the Western Conference are willing to do what it takes to get on the defending champion Lakers’ level, and quickly. Portland always feels like they’re a couple pieces away, maybe they’ll seek to demote Neil Olshey and entice Oregon’s prodigal son home. Phoenix is on the come-up, maybe they’ll find room to give Ainge a second chance to make a first impression. Utah would move whatever Ainge perceives as heaven and earth to get him in their front office. Perhaps the Clippers want to saddle up to the table with Boston again, for more of a front-office-oriented swap this time around?

He’s no longer the Young Man he was when he left his prior NBA job. But don’t be too surprised if Danny Ainge jumps on the urge to Go West.

 

Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3

Postscript!

~br0k3ncl0ck

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