Official Game Thread: Hawks at heat (Sunday)

[MarylandHawk]

3 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Who knew my rant would be the stick that broke the camels back. 

Yeah don’t get get Trae traded with your rants. Lol. 

[MarylandHawk]

4 hours ago, terrell said:

Look, I’ve always been on the Luka side of "the trade" but the fallout of not getting Luka is just beginning..

Heads will roll trying to make Trae work here. LP will be fired, Collins will likely be traded, and probably some other dire consequence (maxing Trae early) before we accept that he's just not a plausible (not impossible I guess…) best player for a contender. That's my stance..Again, I hope Im wrong..

I hope you are wrong too. The worst thing you can do now though is to pull the plug on your whole plan out of fear. I always knew Loyd wouldn't be the coach that took us all the way unless he did something extraordinary. Schlenk is following the golden state blue print all the way.  Loyd was a development coach like Mark Jackson and they cut their ties as soon as all the players they drafted were developed. This is just the next step in the plan that came a little early. 

[MarylandHawk]

5 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

It doesn't matter who they think they are.  The only thing that matters is who they are when healthy.  Even what they are now is of less importance unless you think they'll always be without Hunter, Bogi, etc... 

They were a top 10 NBA team that didn't know how to close out games.  They were still learning that.  I'll not argue that point.  They were 9-8 in games where Trae and Hunter both played and probably should have been 12-5 in those games.  So?  Young teams blow leads while they are learning how to win.  They were still winning enough to be above .500 which would put them as a Top 4 seed today in the East.  

That's my point.  Trae IS a winning player and it's not Trae that's causing them to lose as much as they are.  So I'm a bit baffled with all the "move on from Trae" and "he's not a winner" and "worst team in the NBA with him" talk.  There's an actual reason for their play of late and it coincides exactly with Hunter getting hurt.  

Closet trolls?

[bleachkit]

4 hours ago, macdaddy said:

Who would have thought taking the second best player in a historically strong draft would lead to this much destruction?   We're doomed!!!

Third best. SGA has officially past him.

[JayBirdHawk]

3 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Third best. SGA has officially past him.

Let me know when teams start doubling SGA or picking him up full court for an entire game.

[bleachkit]

Just now, JayBirdHawk said:

Let me know when teams start doubling SGA or picking him up full court for an entire game.

Check out SGA's numbers this year, watch his film. He's really, really good.

[JayBirdHawk]

6 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Check out SGA's numbers this year, watch his film. He's really, really good.

Does that discount my point about how he is defended by other teams. That matters.

[bleachkit]

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Does that discount my point about how he is defended by other teams. That matters.

Do you have ESPN insider? Kevin Pelton, who is an excellent basketball writer, wrote about the Hawks. Would like to read it.  https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/30986229/next-atlanta-hawks-trae-young

[JayBirdHawk]

3 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Do you have ESPN insider? Kevin Pelton, who is an excellent basketball writer, wrote about the Hawks. Would like to read it.  https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/30986229/next-atlanta-hawks-trae-young

Don't do BSPN.

[bleachkit]

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Don't do BSPN.

Ugh. Kevin Pelton is actually really good.

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, MarylandHawk said:

Hang in there brother. Trae is an amazing, unique all world talent and he has that has fiery competitive spirit which can’t easily be replaced. He will make everyone eat crow sooner or later. I am with Trae til the end and wont turn on him even if we don't win. I still love the Hawks first and foremost but Trae is special. He will get it done. 

He's been excellent under Nate so let's see if it was just a bad fit with LP or that Trae is the problem.

[REHawksFan]

6 hours ago, bleachkit said:

Do you have ESPN insider? Kevin Pelton, who is an excellent basketball writer, wrote about the Hawks. Would like to read it.  https://www.espn.com

 

Where are the Atlanta Hawks headed after firing head coach Lloyd Pierce on Monday?

Pierce paid the price for the Hawks' slide in the standings after a promising start to a season that began with playoff expectations. Hit hard by injuries, Atlanta has gone 4-11 since starting the season 10-9 to drop to 11th in the Eastern Conference.

Can the Hawks get back into one of the spots in this year's inaugural NBA play-in tournament? And in the big picture, how competitive can an Atlanta team built around guard Trae Young be in years to come? Let's take a look.

 

---

Pierce never got a chance to integrate newcomers

This was supposed to be the season Atlanta's four-year rebuild under president and general manager Travis Schlenk paid playoff dividends. Pierce kicked off those expectations almost a year ago, before NBA play was suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

"We're going to level up," Pierce told reporters last March. "This team is a playoff team, and I told our guys. We're a playoff team. The guys in that room that will be back here understand that. Now it's about understanding what that means. We know it."

Those comments came before the Hawks' offseason spending spree. Entering free agency with more cap space than any other team, Atlanta aggressively added veterans, signing guards Kris Dunn and Rajon Rondo and forward Danilo Gallinari before making an offer sheet to restricted free agent Bogdan Bogdanovic that the Sacramento Kings chose not to match.

Unfortunately, injuries have prevented those newcomers from making an impact. Dunn never played a second for Pierce due to ankle surgery, while Bogdanovic has been sidelined since mid-January by an avulsion fracture in his knee. The relatively healthier players from this group have missed 14 (Rondo) and 12 (Gallinari) games; neither has been typically effective when on the court. Combined, the four players have contributed just 0.5 win above replacement level by my WARP metric.

Despite those injuries, Pierce still had the Hawks sixth in the East at the end of January before a miserable month of February. Atlanta didn't perform quite as poorly in the month as the team's 4-11 record would indicate. The Hawks were outscored by 4.0 points per game in that stretch, which would typically translate to between five and six wins on average instead of the four they got. Atlanta lost a pair of games by one point, missing out on wins that could have saved Pierce his job for a little longer.

---

Hawks poised for turnaround

Replacing Pierce is a favorable situation because no matter who's at the helm, Atlanta is likely to benefit from better luck the rest of the season. If the Hawks merely play to their break-even point differential, a .500 record would be an improvement the rest of the way. Atlanta is also likely to get healthier at some point. Bogdanovic could return after the All-Star break with starting small forward De'Andre Hunter -- out all of February after knee surgery -- due back at some point in April.

Thanks to those factors, FiveThirtyEight's projections have the Hawks more likely than not (55%) to make the playoffs. Projections using ESPN's Basketball Power Index are a bit more pessimistic on Atlanta's chances but still give them a 42% chance of reaching the play-in tournament and an 18.5% chance at the playoffs.

Naturally, a new head coach can make the biggest impact at the defensive end of the court. The Hawks' offense has been steadily above average during the month of February, but their defensive rating slipped from 22nd in the league on a per-possession basis entering February to 27th during their slump. The loss of Hunter, the team's best perimeter defender, has played a key role there.

---

Does Atlanta have contending core?

Let's take a step back from the rest of this season. The larger animating question for the Hawks heading into a decision on whether to trade John Collins before he hits restricted free agency this summer is whether they have the right core in place to compete in the East.

EDITOR'S PICKS

• 

  Keeping these Lakers together won't be cheap

• 

  NBA Power Rankings: Luka snaps Brooklyn's streak; Miami stays hot

 

In addition to hurting the team on the court this season, the injuries have also made it more difficult to answer that question. On paper, the newcomers would have propped up a second unit that failed Atlanta in 2019-20. In practice, the team remains heavily dependent on Young's presence to create efficient offense. With him on the bench, the Hawks' offensive rating drops by 13.6 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA Advanced Stats.

With Hunter looking like the 3-and-D contributor the Hawks traded up to draft No. 4 overall in 2019 prior to his injury, Atlanta's starting lineup showed great promise. When Hunter was on the court with Young, Collins and new starting center Clint Capela, the Hawks' lineups ranked in the 98th percentile league-wide with a plus-14.0 net rating, per Cleaning the Glass. If that holds up, Atlanta can feel good about re-signing Collins and staying the course.

 

Alas, that net rating was compiled in a 426-possession sample, and the Hawks won't likely get Hunter back on the court before the trade deadline. So they'll be going on incomplete information as they make a decision on possible Collins trades.

Besides showing tangible progress in the rebuilding process, making the playoffs would also be illuminating about where Atlanta's budding stars stand. Can Young hold up in the playoffs when defenses scheme to take the ball out of his hands on offense and target him in the pick-and-roll defensively? Can the Hawks finish games with both Collins and Capela on the court?

It's easy to understand why Atlanta feels urgency to turn this season around. It's less clear a coaching change was necessary to do so.

[bleachkit]

50 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

 

Where are the Atlanta Hawks headed after firing head coach Lloyd Pierce on Monday?

Pierce paid the price for the Hawks' slide in the standings after a promising start to a season that began with playoff expectations. Hit hard by injuries, Atlanta has gone 4-11 since starting the season 10-9 to drop to 11th in the Eastern Conference.

Can the Hawks get back into one of the spots in this year's inaugural NBA play-in tournament? And in the big picture, how competitive can an Atlanta team built around guard Trae Young be in years to come? Let's take a look.

 

---

Pierce never got a chance to integrate newcomers

This was supposed to be the season Atlanta's four-year rebuild under president and general manager Travis Schlenk paid playoff dividends. Pierce kicked off those expectations almost a year ago, before NBA play was suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

"We're going to level up," Pierce told reporters last March. "This team is a playoff team, and I told our guys. We're a playoff team. The guys in that room that will be back here understand that. Now it's about understanding what that means. We know it."

Those comments came before the Hawks' offseason spending spree. Entering free agency with more cap space than any other team, Atlanta aggressively added veterans, signing guards Kris Dunn and Rajon Rondo and forward Danilo Gallinari before making an offer sheet to restricted free agent Bogdan Bogdanovic that the Sacramento Kings chose not to match.

Unfortunately, injuries have prevented those newcomers from making an impact. Dunn never played a second for Pierce due to ankle surgery, while Bogdanovic has been sidelined since mid-January by an avulsion fracture in his knee. The relatively healthier players from this group have missed 14 (Rondo) and 12 (Gallinari) games; neither has been typically effective when on the court. Combined, the four players have contributed just 0.5 win above replacement level by my WARP metric.

Despite those injuries, Pierce still had the Hawks sixth in the East at the end of January before a miserable month of February. Atlanta didn't perform quite as poorly in the month as the team's 4-11 record would indicate. The Hawks were outscored by 4.0 points per game in that stretch, which would typically translate to between five and six wins on average instead of the four they got. Atlanta lost a pair of games by one point, missing out on wins that could have saved Pierce his job for a little longer.

---

Hawks poised for turnaround

Replacing Pierce is a favorable situation because no matter who's at the helm, Atlanta is likely to benefit from better luck the rest of the season. If the Hawks merely play to their break-even point differential, a .500 record would be an improvement the rest of the way. Atlanta is also likely to get healthier at some point. Bogdanovic could return after the All-Star break with starting small forward De'Andre Hunter -- out all of February after knee surgery -- due back at some point in April.

Thanks to those factors, FiveThirtyEight's projections have the Hawks more likely than not (55%) to make the playoffs. Projections using ESPN's Basketball Power Index are a bit more pessimistic on Atlanta's chances but still give them a 42% chance of reaching the play-in tournament and an 18.5% chance at the playoffs.

Naturally, a new head coach can make the biggest impact at the defensive end of the court. The Hawks' offense has been steadily above average during the month of February, but their defensive rating slipped from 22nd in the league on a per-possession basis entering February to 27th during their slump. The loss of Hunter, the team's best perimeter defender, has played a key role there.

---

Does Atlanta have contending core?

Let's take a step back from the rest of this season. The larger animating question for the Hawks heading into a decision on whether to trade John Collins before he hits restricted free agency this summer is whether they have the right core in place to compete in the East.

EDITOR'S PICKS

• 

  Keeping these Lakers together won't be cheap

• 

  NBA Power Rankings: Luka snaps Brooklyn's streak; Miami stays hot

 

In addition to hurting the team on the court this season, the injuries have also made it more difficult to answer that question. On paper, the newcomers would have propped up a second unit that failed Atlanta in 2019-20. In practice, the team remains heavily dependent on Young's presence to create efficient offense. With him on the bench, the Hawks' offensive rating drops by 13.6 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA Advanced Stats.

With Hunter looking like the 3-and-D contributor the Hawks traded up to draft No. 4 overall in 2019 prior to his injury, Atlanta's starting lineup showed great promise. When Hunter was on the court with Young, Collins and new starting center Clint Capela, the Hawks' lineups ranked in the 98th percentile league-wide with a plus-14.0 net rating, per Cleaning the Glass. If that holds up, Atlanta can feel good about re-signing Collins and staying the course.

 

Alas, that net rating was compiled in a 426-possession sample, and the Hawks won't likely get Hunter back on the court before the trade deadline. So they'll be going on incomplete information as they make a decision on possible Collins trades.

Besides showing tangible progress in the rebuilding process, making the playoffs would also be illuminating about where Atlanta's budding stars stand. Can Young hold up in the playoffs when defenses scheme to take the ball out of his hands on offense and target him in the pick-and-roll defensively? Can the Hawks finish games with both Collins and Capela on the court?

It's easy to understand why Atlanta feels urgency to turn this season around. It's less clear a coaching change was necessary to do so.

Thanks!

[REHawksFan]

Regarding the decision to trade JC or not......I think the Hawks pretty much have to play out the season and then make a decision on JC in the summer.  I say that for several reasons:

1.  It is true that they will not get equal value in return for JC and likely wouldn't get a player back that is anywhere close to JC's production; 
2. They don't have anyone on the roster to fill JC's minutes, let alone his production. At one point some thought Gallo could start but none of us wants that.  At one point we surmised that Hunter could play some 4, but he's hurt.  Bottom line, unless they are willing to go with OO at the 4 full time and have a rotation of Capela / OO / Gallo at the 4 and 5 the rest of the year, there's just no way to trade JC.  
3. Trading JC would make the team lesser in the short term and would, in effect, be punting on the season.  But that is at odds with firing LP which signaled an all in on this year.  If anything, I could see TS trying to be aggressive and trading for another piece to add to the core.  

I think the firing of LP combined with the injury and roster situation in general signals pretty clearly that they aren't trading JC.  Only way around that would be if they got some Godfather offer for JC but I'm not sure how such a deal is even possible at this point.