Dispelling the juggernaut myth.

[thecampster]

Running some basic numbers against teams winning percentages. Based on current record, here are the expected records of the top 4 teams in each conference in an 82 game season.

 

Philly 55

Brooklyn 54

Milwaukee 53

Atlanta 46  (*under Nate - 57, under LP - 32) - IE, Atlanta's winning percentage under Nate would net them the top spot in the East this year, tied for 2nd in the league.

 

Utah 58.5

Phoenix 57

Clippers 55

Denver 54

 

Point being that all of the top 4 seeds in this year's playoffs would have finished with a worse record than the 2014-2015 Atlanta Hawks, a team that was smoked 0-4 by the Cleveland Cavaliers.

There is no juggernaut. Brooklyn has underperformed expectations. Milwaukee and Philly both have flaws. Utah/Phoenix are both beatable.

The Hawks have beat every team in this list at least once this year except Utah. Both games played without BB, 1 without Trae.

 

There is no juggernaut. All of the top 4 seeds in the East are susceptible to an upset in the 1st round (everyone should be terrified of playing Washington). The likely path for the Hawks lines up like this

Round 1 Miami

Round 2 Philly

Round 3 Mil/Brooklyn

Round 4  one of Utah, Pho/LAC.

 

I am not saying we will win it all but the only teams with the same or better winning percentages this year compared to the % under Nate is Utah/Pho. This is very doable as long as we stay healthy.

 

 

[NBASupes]

We are the least respected team in the east. Everyone wants to play us in the 4th or 5th seed. It's our job to dominate that matchup, win a series, and do what Miami did last year and get to the NBA finals from the mid seed position. 

[Final_quest]

The lack of a juggernaut makes this the most wide open field in years.  We truly have a chance.  I’m not expecting a finals run, but the top of the field is weak.  
Did anyone watch the Heat vs Sixers?  Philly ain’t it.  

[AHF]

I would caution against leaning too hard into regular season winning % and using that as a proxy for championship odds.  Teams like the Memphis Grizzlies (of Gasol's hayday), the Utah Jazz, the Phoenix Suns (both today and previously), etc. seemed to always fall short versus the teams with the superstars.  

If the Lakers get healthy, watch out.  Very tough for a 2016 Hawks team type of balanced squad to compete against a LeBron led team in the playoffs.  There is a reason his teams have been in the finals almost every years regardless of whether they were the best in the conference in the regular season (like last year) or middle of the pack (like the 2018 Finals appearance from a team seeded 4th in the East).

I think our current team is better positioned long-term (and hopefully as soon as this year) for better playoff success because we have more elite talent on the roster.  The fact that TS has added a host of quality depth (which we've badly needed) is icing on that cake.

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

I would caution against leaning too hard into regular season winning % and using that as a proxy for championship odds.  Teams like the Memphis Grizzlies (of Gasol's hayday), the Utah Jazz, the Phoenix Suns (both today and previously), etc. seemed to always fall short versus the teams with the superstars.  

If the Lakers get healthy, watch out.  Very tough for a 2016 Hawks team type of balanced squad to compete against a LeBron led team in the playoffs.  There is a reason his teams have been in the finals almost every years regardless of whether they were the best in the conference in the regular season (like last year) or middle of the pack (like the 2018 Finals appearance from a team seeded 4th in the East).

I think our current team is better positioned long-term (and hopefully as soon as this year) for better playoff success because we have more elite talent on the roster.  The fact that TS has added a host of quality depth (which we've badly needed) is icing on that cake.

LeBron playoff factor is massive. He plays a lot more minutes and he's more locked in. Playoff LeBron is just a massively better player than RS LeBron 

[Gray Mule]

Truth.  We get very little respect.  Yet, you can bet you're sweet patooty that there is not one NBA team that is chomping at their bits to play Atlanta in the playoffs.

Truth is, the Hawks may fold up like a cheap napkin when the playoffs begin.  After all, how much experience do any of our key players have in the NBA playoffs?  And, remember, Nate has a terrible reputation as a playoff coach.  Does this all add up to an easy sweep?

Before all of us Squawk members go off the deep end, remember this.  This team believes.  They are talented.  Perhaps the most talented Hawk team in recent history.  When things go right, we are capable of winning everything.  Let this sink in.  We are this good.  Odds are, we will not.  Doesn't mean we won't.  Just means it's not likely.  Recent history, we couldn't.  Wasn't even in last season's bubble.  This season, we're in the playoffs and anything is possible, even if it's not probable.

GO ATL HAWKS !!

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

LeBron playoff factor is massive. He plays a lot more minutes and he's more locked in. Playoff LeBron is just a massively better player than RS LeBron 

And RS LeBron is no slouch either.  Generational players are the guys who accumulate multiple rings.  Jordan, LeBron, Timmy, Shaq, etc.

[NBASupes]

12 minutes ago, AHF said:

And RS LeBron is no slouch either.  Generational players are the guys who accumulate multiple rings.  Jordan, LeBron, Timmy, Shaq, etc.

The best RS player of all time to me. Then again, LeBron is the best I've seen play the game 

[Final_quest]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

And RS LeBron is no slouch either.  Generational players are the guys who accumulate multiple rings.  Jordan, LeBron, Timmy, Shaq, etc.

Well, none of the superstars in the East have shown they can get it done without Lebron or Steph Curry as teammates.  Who do you see as the team in the East that fits your description?  The Nets seem like they have the most star power, but we've seen a lot of paper champions fold in the playoffs.  

[Atlantaholic]

Yup, this is the most wide open the East (and west) has been probably since just after MJ retired. Of course the asterisk here is if we get a completely healthy Nets team with two perennial MVP candidates playing side by side alongside Kyrie Irving. So, yea. They are the favorites by a mile IMO, though not unbeatable because of their lack of depth and defense.

[sturt]

Seemingly pivotal to any discussion in this vein is the referee factor.

Just sayin.

[Wretch]

Fans look past the physicality of the NBA, because "non-contact" sport and all.  It's obviously not the handsy, bruising, half-court slog fest of the NBA of yore, but it's still a thing.  Especially in the playoffs where every possession means something.  The stakes are higher so the energy is higher.  Like those waning moments of regular season games when a 10 point lead in the final minute somehow gets uncomfortably close... 

Let's also not toss out the fact that the game is called differently.  It's debatable whether or not this should be a thing, but we all know it is.  Refs swallow that whistle on more than a few key plays and the entire momentum of the game changes.

When these factors come into play, the game slows down to a grind.  This is when the stars take over, and when the efficient role players and super-subs become heroes (Danny Green, Robert Horry, etc.).  In years past, Squawkers would downplay the need for a star.  Now that we have one, you'll see exactly what it means.  Sure we've had guys in the past that could hit big shots.  I'd rather have those guys and a star (or two) that regularly make the big plays.

On the topic at hand...

What I worry about most is staying focused.  When this team is on and locked in, we can beat anybody - like we were beating the brakes off of the Clippers before we just got complacent.  We can't lose focus if we get down by double digits or if we go up by double digits.  If they can stay focused, I really do like their chances against most of these teams.  Nobody scares me offensively in that regard, but there are some teams that play tough defense that worry me.

2 minutes ago, sturt said:

Seemingly pivotal to any discussion in this vein is the referee factor.

Just sayin.

Literally was just thinking (and posted) the same thing lol

[kg01]

12 minutes ago, Wretch said:

Literally was just thinking (and posted) the same thing lol

It's really a shame that a series could literally be decided by nothing more than how the refs decide to call the game(s).

On paper, the Hawks out-talent both NYK and MIA but that could literally not matter.  Doesn't seem right but I hope the team understands what they'll be facing and will respond accordingly.

I can imagine them losing the first game+ as they adjust then we'll see what happens from there.

[High5]

A lot of these teams have dealt with injuries and COVID, as well as being veteran teams that just don’t care that much about the regular season. Comparing regular season win percentages isn’t that useful.

[macdaddy]

I haven't been paying attention to the Nets honestly but if the big 3 there are truly healthy they are winning the east.   If not sixers will. 

Go Hawks!

Although i like how we matchup with the Sixers so we'd have a chance if we get that far.

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

The best RS player of all time to me. Then again, LeBron is the best I've seen play the game 

Jordan>Lebron

Unless you never saw Jordan play then I can understand I guess.

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, NBASupes said:

We are the least respected team in the east.

In the entire playoffs I’d argue. 

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, thecampster said:

Round 4  one of Utah, Pho/LAC.

Can’t count out the Nuggets and Lakers.

[KB21]

Relative to the Hawks, this is a hungry team, but these players are short on playoff experience.  Capela, Gallo, Lou, and Solomon are your only guys with playoff experience.  The core of this team hasn't tasted the playoffs yet, and it is likely that the young guys will not yet understand what kind of effort and focus is needed to win in the playoffs.  

[NBASupes]

16 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Relative to the Hawks, this is a hungry team, but these players are short on playoff experience.  Capela, Gallo, Lou, and Solomon are your only guys with playoff experience.  The core of this team hasn't tasted the playoffs yet, and it is likely that the young guys will not yet understand what kind of effort and focus is needed to win in the playoffs.  

Nice avatar. Who did you lose the bet to?

31 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Jordan>Lebron

Unless you never saw Jordan play then I can understand I guess.

I saw MJ play 90% of his games. Give me LeBron Raymone James.