Dispelling the juggernaut myth.

[RedDawg#8]

Philly is built different. They are the best team in the East top to bottom. Nets are the most talented by far. And the Bucks have the biggest chip on their shoulder and most to prove.

 I aint scared either, but that doesn't change the fact that they are flat out better teams than us. 

NY has the style of play that will translate perfectly to the postseason without them having to switch anything up or turn up their intensity. They come ready as is for postseason basketball. That's an advantage.

Miami knows the drill. They've been there and done it already. They have positioned themselves all season and turned it up another notch here lately. They are no going out in round 1 without a dogfight.

 

[macdaddy]

22 minutes ago, KB21 said:

The core of this team hasn't tasted the playoffs yet,

I agree.  This can't be overlooked.  I have high hopes but I'll be ok with getting some good playoff experience.  

[kg01]

11 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I agree.  This can't be overlooked.  I have high hopes but I'll be ok with getting some good playoff experience.  

That's the part that stinks about how (relatively) open the East is this year.  We probably lack the experience to take advantage of it so we should be ok(ish) with simply getting experience this year no matter how long the run lasts.

That said, I hope the players/coaches don't have that settling mindset.  Go 'head and shock the world, boise.

I'll be happy either way .. but best believe I'm keeping a list of folks who aren't here now but who'll, all of a sudden, pop up if we get eliminated ...

I'm just saying, it'd be bonkers if I was rolling through peoria and in plainview of everyone, I just start trashing the team.

[KB21]

28 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Nice avatar. Who did you lose the bet to?

I saw MJ play 90% of his games. Give me LeBron Raymone James.

AHF.

[JayBirdHawk]

Hawks in 4! 

[macdaddy]

I think the players are confident.

[MarylandHawk]

4 hours ago, thecampster said:

Running some basic numbers against teams winning percentages. Based on current record, here are the expected records of the top 4 teams in each conference in an 82 game season.

 

Philly 55

Brooklyn 54

Milwaukee 53

Atlanta 46  (*under Nate - 57, under LP - 32) - IE, Atlanta's winning percentage under Nate would net them the top spot in the East this year, tied for 2nd in the league.

 

Utah 58.5

Phoenix 57

Clippers 55

Denver 54

 

Point being that all of the top 4 seeds in this year's playoffs would have finished with a worse record than the 2014-2015 Atlanta Hawks, a team that was smoked 0-4 by the Cleveland Cavaliers.

There is no juggernaut. Brooklyn has underperformed expectations. Milwaukee and Philly both have flaws. Utah/Phoenix are both beatable.

The Hawks have beat every team in this list at least once this year except Utah. Both games played without BB, 1 without Trae.

 

There is no juggernaut. All of the top 4 seeds in the East are susceptible to an upset in the 1st round (everyone should be terrified of playing Washington). The likely path for the Hawks lines up like this

Round 1 Miami

Round 2 Philly

Round 3 Mil/Brooklyn

Round 4  one of Utah, Pho/LAC.

 

I am not saying we will win it all but the only teams with the same or better winning percentages this year compared to the % under Nate is Utah/Pho. This is very doable as long as we stay healthy.

 

 

I like your line of thinking. 

[AHF]

2 hours ago, KB21 said:

Relative to the Hawks, this is a hungry team, but these players are short on playoff experience.  Capela, Gallo, Lou, and Solomon are your only guys with playoff experience.  The core of this team hasn't tasted the playoffs yet, and it is likely that the young guys will not yet understand what kind of effort and focus is needed to win in the playoffs.  

This does give us a lower floor for sure but we see some young teams excel.  After their string of high lottery picks, Oklahoma made it to the WCF with their top 5 in minutes being 21, 21, 22, 22 and 24.  Now I'm sure their prior year's playoff experience was helpful but we are older / more experienced on a minutes weighted basis.  

[sturt]

I'm wearing it.

Call me Eeyore.

Mods, let them all call me Eeyore, with no penalty.

I'm a 2020-21 playoff pessimist.

I see a team that does perceive itself mentally--though they'll deny it in words--as having achieved their goal for the year. Trae's "we're not done" following the WAS win, for example, was not especially convincing. At all. To me, anyhow. It was the obligatory thing to say, and it was an after thought. I'm inclined to believe that's not a one-off, but rather a sense that permeates the locker room.

I see a team composed of individual players who, far more typically than not, don't know what they don't know, and until they know it, they won't be able to advance... don't know the playoff grind, haven't experienced first-hand the different refereeing style of the post-season, and just do not have the maturity that most successful teams have. Still in development.

I see a team led by a coach that is experienced and hungry, but who himself is also fighting some residual demons from his previous coaching stops. He certainly is one of the NBA's best, though one is right to wonder if his philosophies are congruent with this weird circumstance where he has so so so much more depth than he's likely ever had on any playoff roster... and thus, even putting aside those residual demons, it's a valid question whether he'll maximize the ammunition he has at his disposal.

(And repeating myself... none of that bothers me... it's preseason 2021-22.)

 

The only way I see that script flipping is if the NBA and its playoff franchise locations' municipalities embrace what we just learned from the CDC yesterday, and accordingly, allow big crowds into the arenas from the git-go.

If our guys are to, in effect, skip a grade in this NBA playoff school... they're going to need to ride an emotional wave as has rarely been seen in the city of Atlanta.

[lethalweapon3]

"Awww, Pooh."

~t1gg3r

[RedDawg#8]

11 minutes ago, sturt said:

I'm wearing it.

Call me Eeyore.

Mods, let them all call me Eeyore, with no penalty.

I'm a 2020-21 playoff pessimist.

I see a team that does perceive itself mentally--though they'll deny it in words--as having achieved their goal for the year. Trae's "we're not done" following the WAS win, for example, was not especially convincing. At all. To me, anyhow. It was the obligatory thing to say, and it was an after thought. I'm inclined to believe that's not a one-off, but rather a sense that permeates the locker room. 

I see a team composed of individual players who, far more typically than not, don't know what they don't know, and until they know it, they won't be able to advance... don't know the playoff grind, haven't experienced first-hand the different refereeing style of the post-season, and just do not have the maturity that most successful teams have. Still in development.

I see a team led by a coach that is experienced and hungry, but who himself is also fighting some residual demons from his previous coaching stops. He certainly is one of the NBA's best, though one is right to wonder if his philosophies are congruent with this weird circumstance where he has so so so much more depth than he's likely ever had on any playoff roster... and thus, even putting aside those residual demons, it's a valid question whether he'll maximize the ammunition he has at his disposal.

(And repeating myself... none of that bothers me... it's preseason 2021-22.)

 

The only way I see that script flipping is if the NBA and its playoff franchise locations' municipalities embrace what we just learned from the CDC yesterday, and accordingly, allow big crowds into the arenas from the git-go.

If our guys are to, in effect, skip a grade in this NBA playoff school... they're going to need to ride an emotional wave as has rarely been seen in the city of Atlanta.

I disagree with paragraph (1). Kevin let it be known that they have been talking about winning out, and that they are striving for homecourt. JC said something similar about how Washington was a huge MUST WIN game for them to accomplish the bigger picture. Coach Nate let it be known that the team wanted to win it's way in to the playoffs and not wait for anyone else to lose. Everything aligns that the team is not satisfied with anything right now and that getting in was a goal, but they have more goals to reach before it's said and done. Trae isn't the best interviewee, I woudn't put much stock in his dry responses.

I agree with paragraph (2). This is a very underrated assessment. Our main core has never tasted the playoffs and will be in for a wake up call. The good news is, they sprinkled in playoff seasoned vets amongst each position group. Lou, Snell, Solo, Gallo, Clint all have multiple years in the playoffs. 

Long story, I think the piece about crowds is huge. Trae in particular feeds off of the energy of fans and would absolutely thrive under the big lights. I partly think that has something to do with his season, playing in front of empty arenas has taking a little bit of the juice from his sails. (I combined euphemisms and used it wrong intentionally). 

 

 

[hawkzlova123]

At the end of the day it's the same basketball just intensity is increased just keep playing the same way

[REHawksFan]

The inexperience is the only question mark I have heading into the 1st round of the playoffs.  I honestly believe the Hawks are the best team and will be the best team in any 4/5 matchup.  The question is whether the moment is too big for them.  Maybe it is.  Maybe it isn't. 

I do not however buy into the whole playoff boogieman thinking where teams that lack experience are automatically overwhelmed by the big bad playoff experience and end up limping out of it in the first round.  I think that's hogwash. 

Yes, some teams get blown out. But I think it's more likely a scenario that most teams making their first playoff appearance are doing so as the far inferior team.  They squeak into the playoffs and end up as a bottom seed against a much better team that also has playoff experience.  And so yes, they mostly end up getting overwhelmed and losing. 

But I really don't think the reasoning is the lack of playoff experience as much as it is being the inferior team. But that isn't the case with these Hawks.  Maybe in the 2nd round it would be.  But not the 1st.  I just don't think the lack of experience is in and of itself a reason to be pessimistic.  It's just an unknown.   

[macdaddy]

The 2500 generated some buzz in the arena.  I think there's going to be close to 8000 for playoff games.  That should be enough to make some noise.  Not the same i know but it will help.

 

[Gray Mule]

Regular season.  Playoffs.  They are exactly the same, yet they are so different.  In the regular season, win or lose, go on to the next opponent.  In the playoffs, win or go home.  And you must play the same team, over and over until that series is over.

Pressure.  Playoff pressure is much more.

How the players hold up under all this will go a long way.  Atlanta Hawks believe.  They are just as good as any other team they may meet.  Yet, how easy it would be for the wheels to fall off and our buggy crash.  On the other hand, our opponent must face the same problems.  Their buggy can crash.

Our goal this season: 1- Make the playoffs.  2- Go as far as we can.  Earn experience and make any opponent pay for giving us little respect.  As usual, it's us against the world.

GO ATL HAWKS !!

[ATLHawks3]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

The 2500 generated some buzz in the arena.  I think there's going to be close to 8000 for playoff games.  That should be enough to make some noise.  Not the same i know but it will help.

 

With the new CDC guidelines for vaccinated people, I wonder if the NBA will allow more fans in the stands if they're vaccinated? Hell, offer some people special discounts on tickets in order to fill those seats up.

[Spud2nique]

5 minutes ago, ATLHawks3 said:

With the new CDC guidelines for vaccinated people, I wonder if the NBA will allow more fans in the stands if they're vaccinated? Hell, offer some people special discounts on tickets in order to fill those seats up.

Or food like more hot dogs ...don’t mind me I’m just hungry  

[thecampster]

@sturt @RedDawg#8 @macdaddy

To the above discussion, I believe there is one xfactor not being discussed.  The week off from games is going to give Nate 3-5 practices to work on some things he's seen, to include Hunter/Dunn in the new dynamic and get Gallo/Hunter/Huerter/Trae all with their legs under them to get back on track shooting outside.  That week off is going to do wonders for the older teams, but its been just what Nate has been looking for. I'm hoping to see an improvement in half court defense as Nate will get to implement some things. There's a lot that can happen in that week, most of which (IMHO) favors the Hawks...especially in a matchup with New York.

[bird_dirt]

I'm pretty stoked about this team. Before the season started, I guessed they'd end up as high as a 6 seed, and since Nate took over and righted the ship, they've exceeded expectations. 

Proud of how they've finished the regular season. They're already ahead in my book, so any noise in the playoffs is gravy to me.

I wanted serious playoff experience this year, to be ECF contenders next season, and Championship series contenders for the next few years after that.

If health favors this team, they can do it over the long haul. They're so young and already so good, when they mature, they could be something really special. 

[MarylandHawk]

8 hours ago, sturt said:

I'm wearing it.

Call me Eeyore.

Mods, let them all call me Eeyore, with no penalty.

I'm a 2020-21 playoff pessimist.

I see a team that does perceive itself mentally--though they'll deny it in words--as having achieved their goal for the year. Trae's "we're not done" following the WAS win, for example, was not especially convincing. At all. To me, anyhow. It was the obligatory thing to say, and it was an after thought. I'm inclined to believe that's not a one-off, but rather a sense that permeates the locker room.

I see a team composed of individual players who, far more typically than not, don't know what they don't know, and until they know it, they won't be able to advance... don't know the playoff grind, haven't experienced first-hand the different refereeing style of the post-season, and just do not have the maturity that most successful teams have. Still in development.

I see a team led by a coach that is experienced and hungry, but who himself is also fighting some residual demons from his previous coaching stops. He certainly is one of the NBA's best, though one is right to wonder if his philosophies are congruent with this weird circumstance where he has so so so much more depth than he's likely ever had on any playoff roster... and thus, even putting aside those residual demons, it's a valid question whether he'll maximize the ammunition he has at his disposal.

(And repeating myself... none of that bothers me... it's preseason 2021-22.)

 

The only way I see that script flipping is if the NBA and its playoff franchise locations' municipalities embrace what we just learned from the CDC yesterday, and accordingly, allow big crowds into the arenas from the git-go.

If our guys are to, in effect, skip a grade in this NBA playoff school... they're going to need to ride an emotional wave as has rarely been seen in the city of Atlanta.

I think home court is the difference between your pessimist view and a more optimistic view that we are the most under rated team in the playoffs hat will surprise people by how far we advance.  I literally think it will come down to who wins the 50/50 balls in a 7 game series between us and NY or MIA.