It's never too early ... next season's Hawks team ...

[Guest]

Some assumptions on my part: (2021/2022 cap will be $112 million and we have $102 million tied up, including John Collins' cap hold of $12 million, and Kris Dunn's opt in of $5 million)

1. We resign John Collins.  I'm not concerned about the contract details for this discussion.  I am assuming we can make moves, taking into account only his $12 million cap hold, until we resign him to whatever amount it takes - probably $25 million a year at the most, hopefully. 

2. Lou Williams does not return.  We move on from him or he retires.  (again, my assumption)  

3. Tony Snell does not return.  He gets a better offer than we care to give him, if we are interested.

4. Solomon Hill returns on a one-year, $3 million contract.  Jack-of-all-trades at both forward spots. 

5. Cam Reddish is back, healthy, and making good progress offensively during the summer and camp.

6. Kris Dunn opts in.

7. So, we have 12 players committed to:

Trae, Bogi, Huerter, Dre', Cam, Capela, JC, Okongwu, Gallo, Solo, Dunn, Bruno

8. I am assuming the roster cap will return to 15 players instead of the pandemic level of 17.

Therefore, I believe we will only have $5 million to offer free agents or use in trades, along with our first and second round draft choices next year (which includes a cap hold of about $2 million for our 20th pick), and OKC's lottery protected first round draft choice in 2022 (I won't assume using other draft assets at this point in the discussion).  Bruno's salary is roughly $2 million to also use towards a trade, if needed, assuming we want to keep the other 11 players I've listed above.

I don't pretend to know the nuances of vet min contracts, mid-level exceptions, etc., that might also be available to us.  But, as far as I can tell (See ... I at least tried to do a little research before just speculating unintelligently!!) it seems that once we sign Collins (and go over the cap to do so), we would then have the mid-level exception of about $10 million, as well as a bi-annual exception of about $4 million.  Enough to get some vet back-ups, I suspect.   

Thus, what are our needs? 

1. A a solid, veteran back-up point guard who can run the offense, with or without great defense (since we will have good defense already with Cam, Huerter, and Okongwu on the second team, along with Gallo)?

2. A big, back-up veteran center to help us with the beasts in the league we will encounter if we move onto higher rounds in the playoffs?

3. What do we do with Goodwin, Knight, Bruno, and Mays?

4. Do we draft for specific positions or just best player available in the first and second rounds?

Please don't rip me a new one!  I'm probably the second oldest Squawker after Gray Mule.  Thanks.  
 

[sturt]

Glad I read this. I've been mistaking JC's qualifying offer for his cap hold forever.

So, assuming a cap of $112m, that takes us down from about $13m in space to about $8m in space... significant, because any team with an MLE (~9m) can beat us on salary.

 

[NBASupes]

I want to sign Shane Larkin 

[Jdawgflow]

TJ McConnell

Solo

Taj

[warcore]

Definitely want Solo back for the vet min. He's given us a lot. None more significant than giving Nerlens the shoulder. Teams need guys like that. 

I'd like to use our first on a PG or a C with size. 

[Spud2nique]

My top 10 fits for need and depth on the bench:

Ibaka (depending on price)

Norman Powell

Dragic

Patty Mills

Will Barton

Josh Hart

Derrick Rose

Doug McDermott

TJ McConnell

Gorgui Dieng

 

[sturt]

14 hours ago, LongTimeFan said:

1. We resign John Collins.

...check.

But with the caveat that we use that ~$8m of cap space first.

And. I don't rule out a trade rather than signing one or more free agents with it.

14 hours ago, LongTimeFan said:

2. Lou Williams does not return. 

3. Tony Snell does not return.

...check.

14 hours ago, LongTimeFan said:

4. Solomon Hill returns on a one-year, $3 million contract.  Jack-of-all-trades at both forward spots. 

Think this is an open question whether Solo returns. I'd be more inclined to say he's one option, but there will be a handful of similar players worthy of Schlenk's consideration.

Whoever that player is that fills that slot in the third column of the depth chart, it seems more likely than not that he'll make the same that Solo did this season -- ie, the minimum.

14 hours ago, LongTimeFan said:

5. Cam Reddish is back, healthy, and making good progress offensively during the summer and camp.

...check.

And plausibly, back before the end of the upcoming PHI playoff series.

14 hours ago, LongTimeFan said:

6. Kris Dunn opts in.

Likely.

But also won't be surprised if, after opting in, Dunn and his $5m contract are part of a trade.

From where I sit, Dunn's value to this team was not only severely diminished by his injury problems, but arguably just as much by McM becoming head coach. I'm inclined to think that LP was someone more amenable to using the third string guys, whereas McM only wants to do that if injuries in the rotation force him into it.

While by today's standards $5m isn't anything onerous, the objective I believe Schlenk will work toward is to fill that third column with player making the minimum or close to it... and in so doing, where Dunn is concerned, include him and his contract in the pursuit to upgrade the backup PG slot.

 

15 hours ago, LongTimeFan said:

7. So, we have 12 players committed to:

Trae, Bogi, Huerter, Dre', Cam, Capela, JC, Okongwu, Gallo, Solo, Dunn, Bruno

Yes, but not "committed" on Solo. And both Dunn and Bruno arguably seem to be trading pieces for Schlenk to use in his quest to fill the back-up PG.

(Aside: As a proud member of the Bru Cru, I remain adamant that the team should keep him and develop him, but if they're not going to do that, then free Bruno, by all means. Let him go somewhere where they will do that. He's a good guy. He's a talented guy. He deserves so so much better than how this has turned out so far for his career. The team that takes seriously his development will reap serious benefit. Hopefully that's still ATL, but right now it doesn't look that way.)

 

14 hours ago, LongTimeFan said:

8. I am assuming the roster cap will return to 15 players instead of the pandemic level of 17.

Right. Technically, the difference as I understood it (and feel free to correct me, of course) is that the 2-way player contracts were temporarily expanded to allow those players to play more games, and that that will go back to normal in 21-22.

15 hours ago, LongTimeFan said:

Therefore, I believe we will only have $5 million to offer free agents or use in trades, along with our first and second round draft choices next year (which includes a cap hold of about $2 million for our 20th pick)

That looks right, except that as I understand it, you don't have to apply that $2m for your FRP as a "hold." You can sign that player (assuming we draft one) later, which effectively takes that number up to something in the $7m neighborhood.

Here's how I have it right now, fwiw:

 

[Thomas]

10 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

TJ McConnell

Possibly the perfect get for us. He is 29 and at 3.5 mil this season that just ended for them. Great hustle and actually has some solid skilz. 

[Gray Mule]

I wish - I wish - I wish.

Baseball has a minor league system and the major league has some control of all these minor league players.  NBA has the G League.  I want it to be like baseball's minor league.  NBA teams could then have somewhere to develop their future players and not worry and fret over losing them before they are ready for the NBA.

Hawks have players right now that should be in the G League next season.  This is the reason I want the NBA to fix this so that more teams can avail the minor league to a "Grow your own" young team.  G League players, after being there for a set period of time and not on a NBA roster, would become free agents and any one could sign them.  This would prevent a NBA team from holding on to too many talented players while other teams couldn't compete.

I wish the NBA would fix this.  Every NBA team has a G League team.  

Edited June 4, 2021 by Gray Mule

[Jdawgflow]

7 minutes ago, Thomas said:

Possibly the perfect get for us. He is 29 and at 3.5 mil this season that just ended for them. Great hustle and actually has some solid skilz. 

We need TJ!

[Atlantaholic]

McConnel or Rose as backup PG please. Also, wouldn't hurt to add another C. Still not sold on OO being the solution at backup C. 

[sturt]

15 hours ago, LongTimeFan said:

Thus, what are our needs? 

1. A a solid, veteran back-up point guard

...check.

Then, the follow-up is how we obtain that piece.

I'm a broken record that you don't fill such a critical role by depending on the #20 or lesser draft pick in any given draft.

Now, you might have done that if you weren't in full-on "NBA title contender mode." But because you most definitely are in that mode, you have to land someone who you have serious reason to have confidence will deliver at least what LouWill has given us.

So, if you look to free agency, seems we can throw about $7-$8m at it.

If you look to trade, then conceivably, you might package Dunn's $5m and Bruno's $2m, and end up with space to accommodate a player with a 21-22 salary in the $14m neighborhood.

Then, the follow-up to that is... what are your requirements and preferences?

I'm also a broken record that LouWill has proven me wrong, and that rather than taking the perspective that you fill the #2 PG slot with someone who counterbalances Trae's defensive weaknesses, instead, it's best to fill it with someone who mirrors his offensive strengths--and even if that someone has only been an occasional PG and mostly been deployed at SG.

Me, I also would hope we'll end up with someone who we can have some confidence will occupy that role for the next 2-3 seasons, so we have that part of the depth chart firm and avoid the situation where each year there's the question of how well the new PG will fit.

So, who then?

In the free agency pool, I've said like Patty Mills. I now also like Derrick Rose, and how could you not after what we just watched both on the court and in the interview room after the games.

And I've said I'm very intrigued with first-team All Euroleague Kevin Pangos, who I still have as a pet cat after all these years, and albeit having only played a handful of summer league games for us a long, long time ago. Always nice when you can say to yourself, "I was right about that guy." I'm cautious not to get too excited about him because I don't trust my ability to project how well he would perform in the NBA, but that caution would be tossed to the wind if Schlenk--who I do trust--were to sign him. Pangos passes the amateur scout eye-test, and at the same time, seemingly could be obtained at a very reasonable salary.

In the trade pool, that's a developing situation, of course. There will be teams who we'll learn in the next few weeks, if not days, are turning over their roster... some we expect, some that we don't, if this year is like most.

I look for "value stocks"... where a player has shown he's capable of performing at a high level, but has underperformed to some degree, as well as where a team seems inclined to let go of a player for cap space concerns, giving some added leverage in the trade so we don't have to part with as much as we otherwise would. So, all of that logic has led me to some affection for us to replace one GA basketball prodigy (LouWill) with another... ie, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

But there certainly could be other options that will become apparent soon enough.

[Jdawgflow]

TJ 

Solo Taj

done with offseason

[sturt]

16 hours ago, LongTimeFan said:

Thus, what are our needs? 

2. A big, back-up veteran center to help us with the beasts in the league we will encounter if we move onto higher rounds in the playoffs?

 

Yes and no.

Yes, there is a beast in Philly.

But no, I'm not persuaded that McM is going to give any serious minutes to anyone at the 5 beyond Capela and Okongwu, regardless, so I'm not inclined to think it qualifies as a "need." Broken record... the takeaway of not pursuing Dieng at all is that it's been more of a priority to some of us than to McM and Schlenk. 

But, obviously, like any other slot in the depth chart, you want to fill every one of those with the best possible talent at the best possible price.

A Dewayne Dedmon reunion would be wonderful to imagine, for instance, but he turned some heads with his 16 game audition in MIA... seems likely to be too pricey for Schlenk to justify, but who knows.

I could, though, imagine a reunion with our old friend Mike Muscala, who could truly be considered a back-up at both the 4 and the 5 (... as you could with Dedmon, too).

If you get either of those, I'd love to keep developing Bruno. But you knew that.

And what about Knight? I'd love to imagine we could re-sign Knight to another 2-way, and this time with the Skyhawks ostensibly back in full operation, develop him as well. In fact, just plan to re-sign Mays too, and commit to seriously developing Bruno, Knight and Mays in College Park this year... along, perhaps with this year's 1st and 2nd round picks whoever those end up being.

[sturt]

16 hours ago, LongTimeFan said:

3. What do we do with Goodwin, Knight, Bruno, and Mays?

Knight, Bruno, and Mays... see above.

Goodwin remains an option for the 3rd PG role, and probably has an upper hand because he's been here now for two seasons.

[sturt]

16 hours ago, LongTimeFan said:

4. Do we draft for specific positions or just best player available in the first and second rounds?

 

At #20, there's likely to be a tier of players that are at approximately equal talent level, and not just one BPA that stands out... but then again, if you are fortunate enough to find someone in free fall, dropping down the draft inexplicably like a John Collins once did... absolutely, grab that guy.

If it happens to be a PG, great, but regardless, presume that no matter whether that player is or isn't a PG, he's ticketed for the 3rd string in your depth chart, and probably some significant time in College Park playing beside your 2nd rounder, plus your two-ways and maybe Bruno.

 

My preference... being ever conscious of the economics component and conserving your contractual control over talent... is to draft a Eurostash, since the first year for the 20th drafted player is so likely otherwise on this championship-contending roster to just be wasted otherwise. Rather, let the player spend at least one more year in Europe, effectively then punting the asset so that his contract clock begins at a point where he's ostensibly more developed and, concurrently, when you might have a better opportunity for him to compete for actual minutes at some point during a season.

 

And. Given that Gallo's place on the roster will be a question mark automatically next off-season (given his relatively low guarantee), if you can draft a Eurostash that mirrors a lot of what Gallo brings to the table, then all the better.

 

Does this draft have such a guy? Well, yes, it does.

If Alperen Şengün (Turkey) comes tumbling down the draft board, then you grab him.

More likely, though, the prime options are going to be Filip Petrušev (from BogBog's hometown of Belgrade, and who played at Gonzaga before going back this past season) and Roko Prkačin (Croatia, where "the other" Bogdanovic is from).

[HawkingAwesome]

oustide of a back up center idk

 

 

[thecampster]

17 hours ago, LongTimeFan said:

Some assumptions on my part: (2021/2022 cap will be $112 million and we have $102 million tied up, including John Collins' cap hold of $12 million, and Kris Dunn's opt in of $5 million)

1. We resign John Collins.  I'm not concerned about the contract details for this discussion.  I am assuming we can make moves, taking into account only his $12 million cap hold, until we resign him to whatever amount it takes - probably $25 million a year at the most, hopefully. 

2. Lou Williams does not return.  We move on from him or he retires.  (again, my assumption)  

3. Tony Snell does not return.  He gets a better offer than we care to give him, if we are interested.

4. Solomon Hill returns on a one-year, $3 million contract.  Jack-of-all-trades at both forward spots. 

5. Cam Reddish is back, healthy, and making good progress offensively during the summer and camp.

6. Kris Dunn opts in.

7. So, we have 12 players committed to:

Trae, Bogi, Huerter, Dre', Cam, Capela, JC, Okongwu, Gallo, Solo, Dunn, Bruno

8. I am assuming the roster cap will return to 15 players instead of the pandemic level of 17.

Therefore, I believe we will only have $5 million to offer free agents or use in trades, along with our first and second round draft choices next year (which includes a cap hold of about $2 million for our 20th pick), and OKC's lottery protected first round draft choice in 2022 (I won't assume using other draft assets at this point in the discussion).  Bruno's salary is roughly $2 million to also use towards a trade, if needed, assuming we want to keep the other 11 players I've listed above.

I don't pretend to know the nuances of vet min contracts, mid-level exceptions, etc., that might also be available to us.  But, as far as I can tell (See ... I at least tried to do a little research before just speculating unintelligently!!) it seems that once we sign Collins (and go over the cap to do so), we would then have the mid-level exception of about $10 million, as well as a bi-annual exception of about $4 million.  Enough to get some vet back-ups, I suspect.   

Thus, what are our needs? 

1. A a solid, veteran back-up point guard who can run the offense, with or without great defense (since we will have good defense already with Cam, Huerter, and Okongwu on the second team, along with Gallo)?

2. A big, back-up veteran center to help us with the beasts in the league we will encounter if we move onto higher rounds in the playoffs?

3. What do we do with Goodwin, Knight, Bruno, and Mays?

4. Do we draft for specific positions or just best player available in the first and second rounds?

Please don't rip me a new one!  I'm probably the second oldest Squawker after Gray Mule.  Thanks.  
 

If you're gonna ask this question, you'll need some pretex.

Active Cap                                                            $93,496,087

Predicted LT Threshold                             about $138,000,000

2021-22 Cap Holds

Tony Snell    29    SG    Bird                                     $18,567,857     
Louis Williams    34    SG    Bird                              $15,200,000     
John Collins    24    PF    Restricted Bird                  $12,411,906     
Brandon Goodwin    25    PG    Restricted Early Bird     $2,126,991     
Solomon Hill    30    SF    Non-Bird                       $1,669,178     
Nathan Knight    24    PF    Restricted Non-Bird    $1,474,611     
Skylar Mays    24    SG    Restricted Non-Bird        $1,474,611

So the first part of the game you need to play is who stays and for how much.

Also, Dunn has a $5 million option that could come off the active cap.

[sturt]

By the way, just in discussion with other NBA teams' fans, I've come to the realization that Snell's popular enough that there's palpable interest in doing a SnT for him that would either send back to us talent we'd want, or more likely a draft pick and a trade exception.

How much will Snell be able to get on the open market, and for a team that has a crying need for a deadeye 3 point shooter at a wing?

Probably merits its own thread, and I don't really want to detour this one. But just to throw out a number, I'm going to say $8-$10m based on what I saw spent last off-season and assuming a league cap at $112m.

[JayBirdHawk]

Soooo...is there a possibility we look to move Gallo? Just asking.

18 hours ago, LongTimeFan said:

Trae, Bogi, Huerter, Dre', Cam, Capela, JC, Okongwu, Gallo, Solo, Dunn, Bruno

I have the bolded as the most likely roster spots opening night, so that's 9 players plus the #20 pick

PG: Trae

SG: Bogi, Huerter

SF: Hunter, Cam

PF: Collins, Gallo

C - Capela, Okongwu

So we need a backup PG, SF/PF  and a PF/C

Dunn and Bruno can be moved in trade, Solo is a vet min if he returns, Snell is a SnToption to a team over the cap, that 50% shooting from 3 is eye candy.