Backup PG

[RandomFan]

There were a few things I disagree with in Hollinger's 2 part Athletic articles, but this part about the backup PG I agree with.

-- Hollinger: I think the Hawks know better than we do what Hunter’s outlook is, but they need another big wing with size if they can’t count on him. And maybe even if they can. That would be my top priority this offseason, having somebody who can slide between the three and four and have a halfway decent chance of guarding the Khris Middletons and Tobias Harrises of the world in playoff games. Somebody like Otto Porter Jr. could be pretty good in that role if his health checks out; Nic Batum could be a good fit too.

I would worry less about backup point guard with that midlevel exception because it maxes out as an eight-minute role in a playoff game, and Bogdanovic (or Kris Dunn; remember him?) could cut into that further. I think the Hawks should look at using either the biannual or minimum exception for a decent caretaker (but somebody who is still better than Evan Turner, let’s not get crazy) and leave it at that. They could also re-sign Williams with Bird rights, by the way.

Finally, it’s also possible they take a point guard at No. 20. There are a few who could be on the board in that range, but I don’t see how you can count on a player taken that late to be a rotation piece on a good team.

[sturt]

To no one in particular...

 

Why does is it so typical recently that media fail to comprehend that the Hawks have $8m in cap space (just short of the MLE) that they can use ahead of signing JC (... and $13m if for some reason Dunn opts out)?

 

[Final_quest]

I think of Mario Chalmers, Rondo, and Schröder.  You can have a rookie PG on a playoff team.  I would rather have a vet, but I would give the right rookie a chance.  

I disagree with Hollinger that it is an 8 minute role.  Trae was playing 34-36 minutes.  And Lou would play with Trae at times.  Easily at least 14 minutes/game, maybe 18.  

[RandomFan]

2 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

I think of Mario Chalmers, Rondo, and Schröder.  You can have a rookie PG on a playoff team.  I would rather have a vet, but I would give the right rookie a chance.  

I disagree with Hollinger that it is an 8 minute role.  Trae was playing 34-36 minutes.  And Lou would play with Trae at times.  Easily at least 14 minutes/game, maybe 18.  

The only reason Lou played that much is because Dre and Cam were injured, meaning Bogi and Huerter had to help cover SF minutes, which in turn opened minutes at SG where Lou played some. 

I said this weeks ago, but in a playoffs condensed rotation of only 8 or 9 players, with a hard max of 10, then a backup PG is almost an afterthought for us since we already have a 9 man rotation without adding a single player to our roster. Especially when the backup PG duties can be handled by Bogi and K'Von for 8 to 14 mpg in the playoffs. 

However, we do need a decent backup PG for the regular season to help keep Trae fresh and for injury insurance. But spending big, or even moderately, on a backup PG seems like a waste of resources to me. Unless this is gonna be a combo guard with enough size and defense to get minutes along side Trae.

Otherwise, being back Dunn and/or Lou, draft a rookie and let's roll. 

 

[niremetal]

5 hours ago, sturt said:

To no one in particular...

 

Why does is it so typical recently that media fail to comprehend that the Hawks have $8m in cap space (just short of the MLE) that they can use ahead of signing JC (... and $13m if for some reason Dunn opts out)?

 

As I understand it, since the projected cap next year is $112M, it's closer to $4-5M after accounting for Collins' cap hold ($12.4M) and the incomplete roster holds ($1.85M), right? And even then, we'd have to renounce our Bird rights and cap holds on literally everyone else--Lou, Mays, and Knight, most notably--to have access to that meager cap space. Even Snell's Bird rights might be useful if another team that's over the cap is interested in him. I think the amount we can spend on the MLE is also lower if we choose to rely on cap space (although I admit I'm fuzzy on that point). All in all, I don't think we can't get anyone much better than what we'd be renouncing with that money.

Edited July 16, 2021 by niremetal

[sturt]

So happy for that link. Thank you @niremetal... I'd not seen the spotrac "manage team" tool yet, and I'm just guessing since it's a beta release, not many others have either.

It's accurate, but it's a little misleading if you just look at the numbers at face value without digging in.

Here's what I find... (apologies to those of you squinting to see on a phone... you really need an actual computer to view, and even then, you'll want to click on the image to enlarge)

 

 

[Final_quest]

14 hours ago, RandomFan said:

The only reason Lou played that much is because Dre and Cam were injured, meaning Bogi and Huerter had to help cover SF minutes, which in turn opened minutes at SG where Lou played some. 

I said this weeks ago, but in a playoffs condensed rotation of only 8 or 9 players, with a hard max of 10, then a backup PG is almost an afterthought for us since we already have a 9 man rotation without adding a single player to our roster. Especially when the backup PG duties can be handled by Bogi and K'Von for 8 to 14 mpg in the playoffs. 

However, we do need a decent backup PG for the regular season to help keep Trae fresh and for injury insurance. But spending big, or even moderately, on a backup PG seems like a waste of resources to me. Unless this is gonna be a combo guard with enough size and defense to get minutes along side Trae.

Otherwise, being back Dunn and/or Lou, draft a rookie and let's roll. 

 

We have seen leads go up in smoke when Trae sits.  To me K'Von and Bogi are not the answer.  We should have strength at backup PG.  Plus Trae usually does not play 40 minutes.  It's usually 34-36 minutes.  Too much time to be at a disadvantage.  

I'm amazed at the support for Dunn.  He looked like he wasn't a pro in the 78 minutes he played last year.  I would be content with bringing Lou back if nothing better materializes.  

[AHF]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

So happy for that link. Thank you @niremetal... I'd not seen the spotrac "manage team" tool yet, and I'm just guessing since it's a beta release, not many others have either.

It's accurate, but it's a little misleading if you just look at the numbers at face value without digging in.

Here's what I find... (apologies to those of you squinting to see on a phone... you really need an actual computer to view, and even then, you'll want to click on the image to enlarge)

 

 

Good stuff, @sturt

[sturt]

35 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

We have seen leads go up in smoke when Trae sits.  To me K'Von and Bogi are not the answer.  We should have strength at backup PG.  Plus Trae usually does not play 40 minutes.  It's usually 34-36 minutes.  Too much time to be at a disadvantage.  

I'm amazed at the support for Dunn.  He looked like he wasn't a pro in the 78 minutes he played last year. 

 

[RandomFan]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

We have seen leads go up in smoke when Trae sits.  To me K'Von and Bogi are not the answer.  We should have strength at backup PG.  Plus Trae usually does not play 40 minutes.  It's usually 34-36 minutes.  Too much time to be at a disadvantage.  

I'm amazed at the support for Dunn.  He looked like he wasn't a pro in the 78 minutes he played last year.  I would be content with bringing Lou back if nothing better materializes.  

I'm amazed at what people seem to have been expectimg from Dunn after coming off a major injury and lengthy layoff. 

Also, let's not pretend we are gonna replace the offensive efficiency of Trae when he sits with, well...anyone really. The guy is one of the most devastating offensive forces in the game. It shouldn't be a shock that the offense is drastically less good when Trae is out. 

As I said, we need a regular season backup PG, but I'm less than convinced we need one in the playoffs. 

[bleachkit]

17 hours ago, Final_quest said:

I think of Mario Chalmers, Rondo, and Schröder.  You can have a rookie PG on a playoff team.  I would rather have a vet, but I would give the right rookie a chance.  

I disagree with Hollinger that it is an 8 minute role.  Trae was playing 34-36 minutes.  And Lou would play with Trae at times.  Easily at least 14 minutes/game, maybe 18.  

Also too, what if Trae gets hurt? You need someone that can get it done while he's on the mend. Also it would allow us to load manage Trae and not completely concede those games. It's an important role. 

[JayBirdHawk]

4 hours ago, bleachkit said:

Also too, what if Trae gets hurt? You need someone that can get it done while he's on the mend. Also it would allow us to load manage Trae and not completely concede those games. It's an important role. 

If nothing else, tired of seeing the team struggle when Trae sits.

[Gray Mule]

Back up PG?  I still want Tyrese Haliburton.  I know the chances are very dim that the Hawks can do a trade with the Kings.  Still, the Kings need many things to happen for them to improve.

There are so many good guards in this draft.  Perhaps one of them can make us better.  We still have many guards on our roster.  Mays, Goodwin, Dunn and Williams.  With Nate and his new slate of assistant coaches coming on board, perhaps we already have our back up PG.

As usual, Squawk posters have so many questions that must be answered before we open a new season.

[Spud2nique]

52 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

Back up PG?  I still want Tyrese Haliburton. 

I know. I think he would look good in a Hawks uni. There is still hope though as he plays for the Kings, a franchise that hasn’t made the wisest choices in the last 15 years.. or ever.

[sturt]

Starting from the standard that says "acquire the player who is most capable of replicating what you get from the PG position when Trae Young is on the floor"... and... "it's a priority for the player to contribute in a big way immediately"... here are the legit candidates from my perspective:

Free agency

• Kevin Pangos (Zenit St. Petersburg)
• Derrick Rose (NYK)
• Patty Mills (SAS)

(Not included: Cory Joseph, who I see as more of a bus driver back-up, but who likely will be available after being cut on 8/1; Alex Caruso, who I feel too sure will be able to attract bigger money than we'll be able to offer.)

Trade

• Derrick White (SAS) ...somewhat of a reach because would require a third team--can't acquire him with cap space, so would have to trade Dunn+Bruno for a ~ $13m player, who we then could flip in a trade w/ SAS using trade exception

(Not included: I've had visions of converting KCP into a Lou Williams kind-of option, but have to be pragmatic and acknowledge that that's not at all likely. He might be capable, but I don't imagine that anyone in the front office wants to experiment right now.)

Draft

• Jared Butler (Baylor) ...not feeling very confident that he'll be available at #20--thinking that most who have had him on their boards in the 20s only had him there b/c of the health concern, which seems to be fading as a concern now

(Not included: Several... but of those who would seem most striking, Davion Mitchell might be at the top of that list, and though I was high on him initially, I've evolved to the conclusion that he's not developed well-enough as a PnR lead, and whoever our #2 is, he's going to need to hit the ground immediately, and be a fairly complete asset.)

 

Thoughts:

• I remain very conflicted about putting a rookie into such a key role for us, given the consequences to our anticipated assault on the promised land. So, I don't feel good about handing that to Butler. At least, not right away.

 

• At the same time, I don't feel good about handing the role to a Rose or Mills for just one year. Assuming Kirschner accurately reported his conversation with Schlenk, TS also appears to want to stop the revolving door in that slot of the depth chart. Also, where Mills is concerned, it bothers me that he's not going to get much of a break b/c of his Olympics participation.

 

• Trading for White is complicated, and too, it seems unrealistic to anticipate that about $50m of our payroll would be invested in two point guards beginning in 22-23. So, if you did go get him, you'd almost certainly be weighing trade offers next off-season anyhow.

 

• That leaves Pangos, who meets the eye test and is likely affordable, but are you really totally sure that he would make the transition from Europe so smoothly? Similar to Butler, it's easier to pencil him into the #3 PG, and let him force himself into the #2 than it is to just presume the best. But would he sign if he wasn't getting a commitment to the #2 slot? Don't think so.

 

Conclusion: There is no clear-cut best option. So, to become married to one is probably to be self-deceived.

It would matter in a big way what trade offers I get for the #20 pick, because there is definite merit in beginning to develop a cache of Europeans that can supplement the roster in the next few years as we anticipate getting late draft picks--much as SAS did so successfully for so long.

What's my ideal if I could assume the best within some realm of possibility? I can't even say that with any certainty, because while White is the surest thing in the list, he's also the most expensive, the most complicated to acquire, and too, he's had quite a few nagging injuries that have kept him off the court. And again, need more information on what trade offers for #20 would be.

Turning those thumb screws tighter, I think I have to come back to Derrick Rose and be content with the next surest high-impact option who is unfortunately only a short-term solution. And then, I have to either draft someone I intend to eventually supplant him... maybe Butler, or maybe I could land McBride in the 2nd round... or try to persuade Pangos to be a temporary #3 with the expectation that he takes over sooner or later.

But obviously, I'm perplexed how best to approach it.

[Spud2nique]

2 minutes ago, sturt said:

Free agency

• Kevin Pangos (Zenit St. Petersburg)
• Derrick Rose (NYK)
• Patty Mills (SAS)

This is like saying would you like chocolate, vanilla or octopus flavored ice cream . But good info Stu.

5 minutes ago, sturt said:

That leaves Pangos, who meets the eye test

[Spud2nique]

If Pangos makes the Hawks I’m calling Schlenk or whomever for a tryout. 

[Spud2nique]

If with the 0.02% chance that Pangos becomes a Hawk, things might get awkward around here. 

[sturt]

To no one in particular...

Please never ever string someone along in a conversation about player x, y or z as-if you've seen the player play, only to reveal 9 posts into the conversation that you've never actually watched until that 9th one, and even then, had only watched a single 3 minute clip that, in all, showed about 3 three-point shots, and 2 of something else.

That's not nice. That's actually really not nice. Borders on disrespectful.

Nah. I take that back. It is disrespectful.

Care about a topic enough to actually investigate it and gather intel before you presume to engage someone and pretend you're already well-informed. Because for those of us who assume the best in you, it can feel very much like we're the Charlie Brown to your Lucy.

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, sturt said:

To no one in particular...

Please never ever string someone along in a conversation about player x, y or z as-if you've seen the player play, only to reveal 9 posts into the conversation that you've never actually watched until that 9th one, and even then, had only watched a single 3 minute clip that, in all, showed about 3 three-point shots, and 2 of something else.

That's not nice. That's actually really not nice. Borders on disrespectful.

Nah. I take that back. It is disrespectful.

Care about a topic enough to actually investigate it and gather intel before you presume to engage someone and pretend you're already well-informed. Because for those of us who assume the best in you, it can feel very much like we're the Charlie Brown to your Lucy.

That’s pretty specific. F that good lookin x, y or z. How dare he form an opinion about a player that quickly and how dare he not see it as you do. He must be wrong.