John Collins(Max)


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4 minutes ago, sillent said:

I've seen scrubs get moved for worst. It sounds like you think John is a scrub or that Travis isn't shrewd at doing his job.

It's not as difficult as you're making it out to be. If John peaked now he would still be serviceable in 2yrs for alot of teams in need.

I don't think JC is a scrub. I'd value him at $22M. That's not a scrub at all. But a $22M player on a $28M and rising contract is not a good deal, no matter how shrewd your GM is. 

And that's precisely why TS offered 90M imo. He knows JC isn't worth the max (which was the subject of this thread btw). 

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From what I've read, a 4 year max from another team puts John at 4 years $117 million with is an average of about $28 million per year.  Travis was rumored to offer John 4 years $90 million or an average of about $22.5 million per year. A difference of about $5.5 million per year.  

That's not going to make or break the decisions on Cam and Hunter.

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18 minutes ago, marco102 said:

I second Jaybird from what I've been reading it's always 25% flat unless it's the supermax.

Standards:

0-6 years 25% max 

7-9 years 30% max

10+ years 35% max 

 

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14 minutes ago, marco102 said:

From what I've read, a 4 year max from another team puts John at 4 years $117 million with is an average of about $28 million per year.  Travis was rumored to offer John 4 years $90 million or an average of about $22.5 million per year. A difference of about $5.5 million per year.  

That's not going to make or break the decisions on Cam and Hunter.

I don't see how that works. 25% of 112M is 28M so that would be the starting not the avg salary

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19 minutes ago, marco102 said:

From what I've read, a 4 year max from another team puts John at 4 years $117 million with is an average of about $28 million per year.  Travis was rumored to offer John 4 years $90 million or an average of about $22.5 million per year. A difference of about $5.5 million per year.  

That's not going to make or break the decisions on Cam and Hunter.

JCs 4 yr max from another team assuming $112 salary cap and 5% raises.

Yr 1 $28,

Yr 2 $29.5

Yr 3 $30.8

Yr 4 $32.4

Total $120.6 

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23 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I don't think JC is a scrub. I'd value him at $22M. That's not a scrub at all. But a $22M player on a $28M and rising contract is not a good deal, no matter how shrewd your GM is. 

And that's precisely why TS offered 90M imo. He knows JC isn't worth the max (which was the subject of this thread btw). 

TS offered him 90mil because he wants to keep all of his young studs on reasonable contracts. He knows Trae will be the head of the snake as far as contracts.

Believe me if John and Trae were our only 2 stars TS would've had no problem giving JC a max. 

At this point though I think we all want the same thing and I think you get my point that it won't hurt as much either way.

90mil type of contract means John stays long term.

Max or near max means John might be part of trade talks in a few yrs.

30mil might not be nothing during that time like stated above by one of our squawkers because of TV ratings/salaries going up as a whole. Who knows even a max now may be a discount by that time.

Either way it's still a great time to be a Hawks fan and I'm sure Travis and John will come to good terms of agreement.

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Probably already posted in the other thread,  but from Hollingers free agents article:

If you’re looking for earth-shattering free-agent moves, this might not be your year. If you’re looking for starting-caliber role players and maybe-stars of tomorrow, however, the class of 2021 is loaded with them. As the Aug. 3 beginning of free agency draws closer on the league calendar, teams and agents are lining up for what should be a busy season. The shortness of contracts in this era of the CBA basically ensures a big chunk of the league hits free agency every year.

Alas, the more flexible rules on extensions also ensure most of the league’s A-listers are less likely than ever to become free agents. Only three 2021 All-Stars can become free agents next month, and two of them — Kawhi Leonard and Chris Paul — may sign extensions before they ever hit the market. There will be no swarms of NBA executives twiddling their thumbs in crowded three-star hotels in the Hamptons this summer.

Nonetheless, there are a lot of starting-caliber players available this summer, and several intriguing restricted free agents who could end up in lower-scale bidding wars.

This gives rise to the vexing question: What, exactly, are these players worth on a contract? And which ones should teams target first?

Fortunately, I have a tool to help answer that question. (To help, I should emphasize: Issues such as contract length and future growth/aging curves are pretty complex variables before you ever get into the issues of player fit and personalities and all the rest.)

I call this tool BORD$ (Big Ol’ Rating Dollars), and it’s designed to answer a simple question: How much value can we expect a given player to deliver for next season? I based this on two variables: the expected quality of the players’ minutes, and how many minutes we’d expect the player to play on an average team.

A complete summary of BORD$ is still available here, although I should warn I’ve tweaked some of the input variables since a year ago. That was partly by necessity: One of the biggest inputs (PI-PM) is no longer available because the author (Jacob Goldstein) was hired by an NBA team. Props to Jacob, and also how dare an NBA team hire somebody who created a stat.

While I was at it, I decided to clean house on the other inputs too. RAPTOR is no longer part of this version — there were two other variables I liked a bit better for the purposes of this project. Somewhat relatedly, PER is only one-eighth of the rating now, because I just don’t need the ballast of its year-to-year stability as much.

Instead, I made the executive decision to promote two other ratings formulas that have come online in the past year and, frankly, map to the eye test better than most of what I’ve seen previously.

The first is Kostya Medvedovsky’s “DARKO” rating, which continues the analytics tradition of naming ratings formulas after not-so-great players. More importantly, DARKO is designed to evaluate players over longer time periods than one season, making it great for a project like this one that is mostly trying to predict future value from past results.

The second is BBall Index’s “LeBron” rating, which deviates a wee bit from the tradition I mentioned above. Concocted by Krishna Narsu and a gent with the nom de guerre “Cranjis McBasketball,” LeBron is pretty similar to the dearly departed PI-PM in that it combines luck-adjusted on-off ratings with box score data to produce a rating for reach player.

While we’re here, one other change: I did not include playoffs this time around. I was skittish about doing this a year ago too because there are just too many players who aren’t included at all in a playoff data set. While this likely undervalues the occasional playoff outperformer (say, Reggie Jackson) or overvalues a few bigs who get wiped off the floor in the postseason (paging Mr. Kanter), in the aggregate, I think this is the best way to evaluate across a field of 500-ish players, only a small fraction of whom receive meaningful playoff minutes.

Now, on to the fun stuff. Today I’m ranking and analyzing my top 20 players in this free-agent class by BORD$. Note that I’ve included every player who could become a free agent, so, for example, Kawhi Leonard and Chris Paul (who have player options) both make the list.

I’ll also be breaking down these lists in much more depth by each position next week, but I wanted to kick this off with the A-list.

Finally, note that my BORD$ formula is only a projection of the value a player will deliver for next season and for that reason may not be the optimal salary to bid on a younger or older player on a multiyear deal.

For example, one presumes the youngest free agent this summer — the Lakers’ 21-year-old Talen Horton-Tucker — would have a significant premium on his BORD$ projection in any multiyear deal, based on rosier projections for 2022-23 and 2023-24. Similar but opposite, the 36-year-old Paul’s projected value would presumably decline sharply on deals that go too far into the future, and a longer contract would have to take that into account.

(Exhales) … now. With all that out of the way, here are the 20 potential free agents who matter the most, and what BORD$ projects they’ll deliver next season:

3. John Collins, PF, Hawks (restricted): $25,595,936

A max contract for John Collins would start at $28 million a year; right now BORD$ suggests he’s almost but not quite worth it. Of course, rival teams trying to grenade Collins out of Atlanta are unlikely to parse such distinctions, which is why overpays on offer sheets can happen in restricted free agency.

Fortunately, Atlanta is in a pretty good position when one sizes up the market. The teams with max cap room either don’t really need a power forward (New York) or aren’t trying to win this year (Oklahoma City), with one possible exception: San Antonio. The Spurs are rebuilding around their young guards and will have max cap room but only have one big (lumbering center Jakob Poeltl) in the pipeline and are losing Rudy Gay, Trey Lyles, Gorgui Dieng and DeMar DeRozan to free agency.

Barring a toxic offer sheet from the Spurs, this may come down to a staring contest between Collins and the Hawks. In the end, it’s strongly in the interests of both parties to get a long-term deal done. A max deal for Collins would be four years, $125 million, and I don’t see that one happening sans an outside offer sheet. However, something in the neighborhood of $100-110 million strikes me as a likely endpoint.

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22 hours ago, TRW said:

I believe we resign John Collins regardless. The kid is too valuable and can't be let go for nothing. Hopefully we will find a way to sign him without paying max money. If all else fails, we would be foolish to not give him the max. If things don't work put in a year or too I'm sure their would be other suitors who would love to trade for him. Trust In Travis Schlenk.

Agreed. In my mind at least, it's a foregone conclusion that Collins re-signs with us - it's merely a matter of it will be for max money or not. I don't believe it will be for max, but it will likely be close. Max or not, I don't think for a second he won't be lacing up his sneakers for the "A" come the start of next season in our rightful quest for the title.

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/clutchpoints.com/hawks-news-trae-youngs-new-tattoo-has-a-massive-luka-doncic-connection/amp/

Does this photo remind y'all of anyone we may know?

I know this article is trying to link Trae to Luka but this tat should clear everything up about just how important JC is to this team. Chemistry is key and this tat is a loud and proud way of showing it.

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What in the world kind of off-the-wall connecting of the dots are you trying to shoehorn in here on us? 

🧐 🙀

Also, ClutchPoints is the National Enquirer of the NBA. Avoid at all costs. 

Edited by RandomFan
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44 minutes ago, RandomFan said:

What in the world kind of off-the-wall connecting of the dots are you trying to shoehorn in here on us? 

🧐 🙀

Also, ClutchPoints is the National Enquirer of the NBA. Avoid at all costs. 

That lion just looks real familiar. I think I've seen something similar on a player before lol

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Smart people, educate me.

Does this mean that they could not agree on a contract before FAgency began? 

Schlenk said his goal was to get a deal done before he hit the market. Is this the front office throwing in the towel saying, "if you think you can find more money, be my guest, but we aren't budging past this number"? 

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1 hour ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Smart people, educate me.

Does this mean that they could not agree on a contract before FAgency began? 

Schlenk said his goal was to get a deal done before he hit the market. Is this the front office throwing in the towel saying, "if you think you can find more money, be my guest, but we aren't budging past this number"? 

They cannot extend him now. It has to be when the new league year start at FAcy. What Schlenk said was that they'll offer/negotiate a deal at the start of FAcy in lieu of having him try and find a deal which they'll match.

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