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Jalen Johnson (Josh Smith)


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17 minutes ago, marco102 said:

That's not what a sacred cow is though.  Basically a sacred cow can do no wrong, no matter how terrible they are.  

The players in front of Jalen are John Collins, Gallo, Hunter and Reddish (You can argue Huerter and Bogi too).  Of those players, which should not have a rotation spot ahead of Jalen? 

It can be argued that Hunter and Reddish's ceilings are just as high, if not higher than Jalen's.   Gallo is a vet and if Jalen proves he's better than Gallo then we have something cooking, but I don't expect a raw rookie to come in right away and contribute what Gallo does. 

To me, there are no sacred cows.  The Hawks just have a very deep team and for those of us excited about Jalen, we understand that we have other young talented players too. 

I'm super excited for Jalen and hope he leaps frogs everyone his first year, because that's great for the Hawks.  I just don't see that happening his first year and that doesn't mean I don't see the potential in Jalen. 

I'm super excited to see what he becomes, but I'm just excited to see what Cam, Dre, Hunter, OO, Cooper, and JC become too. 

Floors and Ceilings are a tough conversation.

Hunter's ceiling is not much higher than he showed in the beginning of last year. Best case scenario, he's a 20 ppg/7/4 player with great defense. Worst case is he's a 12/5/2 player. The gap between best and worst case for him is much more narrow than Cam.

Worst case for Cam is closer to 10/5/1 but best case is 25/8/4.  Ceiling Cam is better than Ceiling Hunter due to better drive, dish, scoring potential. But Cam is less developed, harder to harness.

Jalen's floor is very similar to Cam but his ceiling is really an unknown and if I had to guess its closer to 27/10/5.  That's a ceiling, a potential. Don't everyone go nuts.  JJ needs a lot more development than both Cam/Hunter and will take 2 years to start sniffing his potential. But of all 3 he's got the best body and best skills at 19. It means a hill of beans but its a thing. If all 3 came out this year and all 3 played a single season of college basketball (all 30 games), Jalen goes #1, Cam goes 5, Hunter goes 8 or 10 ish....but that's not how it played out.  Hunter came out after a few seasons, Cam 1 season 2 years ago and is a better known product, Jalen now with limited film. Jalen's ceiling is highest but floor is lowest (although I would guess least likely).

IMHO, Jalen ends up the best of the group but I could just as easily be wrong. 4 years from now they'll probably be rated JJ tops, Cam 2nd, Hunter 3rd and it'll be such a tight grouping if all on the same team it won't matter. If JJ reaches his defensive potential, I'd never want to play against those 3 on the floor at the same time. It would be madness.

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6 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Floors and Ceilings are a tough conversation.

Hunter's ceiling is not much higher than he showed in the beginning of last year. Best case scenario, he's a 20 ppg/7/4 player with great defense. Worst case is he's a 12/5/2 player. The gap between best and worst case for him is much more narrow than Cam.

Worst case for Cam is closer to 10/5/1 but best case is 25/8/4.  Ceiling Cam is better than Ceiling Hunter due to better drive, dish, scoring potential. But Cam is less developed, harder to harness.

Jalen's floor is very similar to Cam but his ceiling is really an unknown and if I had to guess its closer to 27/10/5.  That's a ceiling, a potential. Don't everyone go nuts.  JJ needs a lot more development than both Cam/Hunter and will take 2 years to start sniffing his potential. But of all 3 he's got the best body and best skills at 19. It means a hill of beans but its a thing. If all 3 came out this year and all 3 played a single season of college basketball (all 30 games), Jalen goes #1, Cam goes 5, Hunter goes 8 or 10 ish....but that's not how it played out.  Hunter came out after a few seasons, Cam 1 season 2 years ago and is a better known product, Jalen now with limited film. Jalen's ceiling is highest but floor is lowest (although I would guess least likely).

IMHO, Jalen ends up the best of the group but I could just as easily be wrong. 4 years from now they'll probably be rated JJ tops, Cam 2nd, Hunter 3rd and it'll be such a tight grouping if all on the same team it won't matter. If JJ reaches his defensive potential, I'd never want to play against those 3 on the floor at the same time. It would be madness.

So to get to the overall point I was arguing.  Who are the sacred cows that shouldn't be in front of Jalen his first year as a rookie? 

That shouldn't be a tough conversation.  There are none. 

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1 minute ago, marco102 said:

So to get to the overall point I was arguing.  Who are the sacred cows that shouldn't be in front of Jalen his first year as a rookie? 

That shouldn't be a tough conversation.  There are none. 

I'm not sure sacred cow but unrealistic. Especially defensively, Jalen has a long way to go. He'll play the 4 more than anything and he's 19. these are grown ass men out there. Imagine Gallo backing down Jalen. The kid is strong but Gallo tossing his butt out or a Julius Randle elbow might send him into the front row. You saw the benefit a few pounds and footwork made for Huerter last year. Jalen needs that same patience. He's got to develop that muscle memory.

So as good as he looked offensively, these pro types are going to eat him alive at the defensive end (much like what happened to Okafor). That alone will keep others in front of him on principal.

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12 minutes ago, marco102 said:

That's not what a sacred cow is though.  Basically a sacred cow can do no wrong, no matter how terrible they are.  

The players in front of Jalen are John Collins, Gallo, Hunter and Reddish (You can argue Huerter and Bogi too).  Of those players, which should not have a rotation spot ahead of Jalen? 

It can be argued that Hunter and Reddish's ceilings are just as high, if not higher than Jalen's.   Gallo is a vet and if Jalen proves he's better than Gallo then we have something cooking, but I don't expect a raw rookie to come in right away and contribute what Gallo does. 

To me, there are no sacred cows.  The Hawks just have a very deep team and for those of us excited about Jalen, we understand that we have other young talented players too. 

I'm super excited for Jalen and hope he leaps frogs everyone his first year, because that's great for the Hawks.  I just don't see that happening his first year and that doesn't mean I don't see the potential in Jalen. 

I'm super excited to see what he becomes, but I'm just excited to see what Cam, Dre, Hunter, OO, Cooper, and JC become too. 

Agree with all of this.  This draft was an A+ in my book.  Great upside draft picks at both spots.  But that doesn't mean that the only thing preventing Jalen from becoming the team's best player is if the guys ahead of him unfairly receive preferential treatment.  I am excited about nearly everyone on this roster coming into this season.  Trae is a superstar already in my books but still has room to grow.  Bogi was a monster in the second half; if he could do that for a full season you are talking about a very high impact player and an All-Star.  Huerter has grown every year and showed breakout potential by winning us a game in the playoffs which is especially great for him since assertiveness has been something that has kept him efficient but also potentially held him back.  Cam has huge upside and after a brutal season of underperforming and injuries he looked like an emerging star in the playoffs against top level competition.  He is someone who has looked like he is on the verge of a breakthrough at the end of each of his two seasons and now needs to bring that consistently.  I feel like his ceiling is All-NBA but the more likely outcome is a plus two-way wing which is still great.  JC has likewise continued to layer on new elements to his game over time and could have one or a few All-Star seasons in him.  Hunter delivered like an All-Star until he got hurt last year and even hurt made an impact when he was available in the playoffs.  How can you not be pumped about his potential?  OO was our best defensive weapon against the league's MVP and showed big growth over the season and into the playoffs.  He has a big injury to overcome but he looks like he can excel as a modern big and versatile defender.  Gallo and Cap are who they are (don't think there is a lot of untapped upside for either) but that is impact rotation pieces.  Cap was arguably our second best player during the regular season and could make a case for an All-Star appearance if he can repeat that league leading performance.  Gallo took a while to get going but was obviously valuable for this team as one of our first guys off the bench.

The fact that all of these guys have big upsides and are proven impact NBA players doesn't make them sacred cows - it just means they are exciting young players.  They do likely limit the number of minutes available to a rookie but that isn't a slam against Jalen or an indictment of management unreasonably favoring the vets.  Reality is that most rookies aren't ready to win games like someone who has a few years under their belt.  

I think the board is super excited about Jalen and Cooper but that doesn't mean we won't have differing views if we start to talk about how fast the rookies will come "online" or how their potential stacks up against our existing players.  The difference is that we have a better idea of our returning players because they are battle tested and have proven something against NBA competition whereas our rookies are completely untested and so a bit more of a Rorschach test.  

I won't speak for anyone else but I pump the brakes when I hear talk about Jalen or Cooper being better than anyone on our team not so much because of what their theoretical upside looks like (it is very exciting for both of them) but moreso because I think our guys fall on the  high end of that spectrum for NBA players in general and they are all (at least in my eyes) proven "hits" against NBA competition.  So I need to see the rookies get meaningful time against similar competition before I'm going to make comparisons.  That isn't a lack of excitement because I'll be on the edge of my seat when they come into games.  

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4 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I'm not sure sacred cow but unrealistic. Especially defensively, Jalen has a long way to go. He'll play the 4 more than anything and he's 19. these are grown ass men out there. Imagine Gallo backing down Jalen. The kid is strong but Gallo tossing his butt out or a Julius Randle elbow might send him into the front row. You saw the benefit a few pounds and footwork made for Huerter last year. Jalen needs that same patience. He's got to develop that muscle memory.

So as good as he looked offensively, these pro types are going to eat him alive at the defensive end (much like what happened to Okafor). That alone will keep others in front of him on principal.

 

Preach.  Very few rookies are ready to dominate on day 1.  Every rookie deserves patience and time to develop.

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3 minutes ago, AHF said:

 

I think the board is super excited about Jalen and Cooper but that doesn't mean we won't have differing views if we start to talk about how fast the rookies will come "online" or how their potential stacks up against our existing players.  The difference is that we have a better idea of our returning players because they are battle tested and have proven something against NBA competition whereas our rookies are completely untested and so a bit more of a Rorschach test.  

 

I may steal that. That's a real good way to say that.

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1 hour ago, marco102 said:

That's not what a sacred cow is though.  Basically a sacred cow can do no wrong, no matter how terrible they are.  

The players in front of Jalen are John Collins, Gallo, Hunter and Reddish (You can argue Huerter and Bogi too).  Of those players, which should not have a rotation spot ahead of Jalen? 

It can be argued that Hunter and Reddish's ceilings are just as high, if not higher than Jalen's.   Gallo is a vet and if Jalen proves he's better than Gallo then we have something cooking, but I don't expect a raw rookie to come in right away and contribute what Gallo does. 

To me, there are no sacred cows.  The Hawks just have a very deep team and for those of us excited about Jalen, we understand that we have other young talented players too. 

I'm super excited for Jalen and hope he leaps frogs everyone his first year, because that's great for the Hawks.  I just don't see that happening his first year and that doesn't mean I don't see the potential in Jalen. 

I'm super excited to see what he becomes, but I'm just excited to see what Cam, Dre, Hunter, OO, Cooper, and JC become too. 

 

42 minutes ago, AHF said:

Agree with all of this.  This draft was an A+ in my book.  Great upside draft picks at both spots.  But that doesn't mean that the only thing preventing Jalen from becoming the team's best player is if the guys ahead of him unfairly receive preferential treatment.  I am excited about nearly everyone on this roster coming into this season.  Trae is a superstar already in my books but still has room to grow.  Bogi was a monster in the second half; if he could do that for a full season you are talking about a very high impact player and an All-Star.  Huerter has grown every year and showed breakout potential by winning us a game in the playoffs which is especially great for him since assertiveness has been something that has kept him efficient but also potentially held him back.  Cam has huge upside and after a brutal season of underperforming and injuries he looked like an emerging star in the playoffs against top level competition.  He is someone who has looked like he is on the verge of a breakthrough at the end of each of his two seasons and now needs to bring that consistently.  I feel like his ceiling is All-NBA but the more likely outcome is a plus two-way wing which is still great.  JC has likewise continued to layer on new elements to his game over time and could have one or a few All-Star seasons in him.  Hunter delivered like an All-Star until he got hurt last year and even hurt made an impact when he was available in the playoffs.  How can you not be pumped about his potential?  OO was our best defensive weapon against the league's MVP and showed big growth over the season and into the playoffs.  He has a big injury to overcome but he looks like he can excel as a modern big and versatile defender.  Gallo and Cap are who they are (don't think there is a lot of untapped upside for either) but that is impact rotation pieces.  Cap was arguably our second best player during the regular season and could make a case for an All-Star appearance if he can repeat that league leading performance.  Gallo took a while to get going but was obviously valuable for this team as one of our first guys off the bench.

The fact that all of these guys have big upsides and are proven impact NBA players doesn't make them sacred cows - it just means they are exciting young players.  They do likely limit the number of minutes available to a rookie but that isn't a slam against Jalen or an indictment of management unreasonably favoring the vets.  Reality is that most rookies aren't ready to win games like someone who has a few years under their belt.  

I think the board is super excited about Jalen and Cooper but that doesn't mean we won't have differing views if we start to talk about how fast the rookies will come "online" or how their potential stacks up against our existing players.  The difference is that we have a better idea of our returning players because they are battle tested and have proven something against NBA competition whereas our rookies are completely untested and so a bit more of a Rorschach test.  

I won't speak for anyone else but I pump the brakes when I hear talk about Jalen or Cooper being better than anyone on our team not so much because of what their theoretical upside looks like (it is very exciting for both of them) but moreso because I think our guys fall on the  high end of that spectrum for NBA players in general and they are all (at least in my eyes) proven "hits" against NBA competition.  So I need to see the rookies get meaningful time against similar competition before I'm going to make comparisons.  That isn't a lack of excitement because I'll be on the edge of my seat when they come into games.  

Two great posts.

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44 minutes ago, AHF said:

Agree with all of this.  This draft was an A+ in my book.  Great upside draft picks at both spots.  But that doesn't mean that the only thing preventing Jalen from becoming the team's best player is if the guys ahead of him unfairly receive preferential treatment.  I am excited about nearly everyone on this roster coming into this season.  Trae is a superstar already in my books but still has room to grow.  Bogi was a monster in the second half; if he could do that for a full season you are talking about a very high impact player and an All-Star.  Huerter has grown every year and showed breakout potential by winning us a game in the playoffs which is especially great for him since assertiveness has been something that has kept him efficient but also potentially held him back.  Cam has huge upside and after a brutal season of underperforming and injuries he looked like an emerging star in the playoffs against top level competition.  He is someone who has looked like he is on the verge of a breakthrough at the end of each of his two seasons and now needs to bring that consistently.  I feel like his ceiling is All-NBA but the more likely outcome is a plus two-way wing which is still great.  JC has likewise continued to layer on new elements to his game over time and could have one or a few All-Star seasons in him.  Hunter delivered like an All-Star until he got hurt last year and even hurt made an impact when he was available in the playoffs.  How can you not be pumped about his potential?  OO was our best defensive weapon against the league's MVP and showed big growth over the season and into the playoffs.  He has a big injury to overcome but he looks like he can excel as a modern big and versatile defender.  Gallo and Cap are who they are (don't think there is a lot of untapped upside for either) but that is impact rotation pieces.  Cap was arguably our second best player during the regular season and could make a case for an All-Star appearance if he can repeat that league leading performance.  Gallo took a while to get going but was obviously valuable for this team as one of our first guys off the bench.

The fact that all of these guys have big upsides and are proven impact NBA players doesn't make them sacred cows - it just means they are exciting young players.  They do likely limit the number of minutes available to a rookie but that isn't a slam against Jalen or an indictment of management unreasonably favoring the vets.  Reality is that most rookies aren't ready to win games like someone who has a few years under their belt.  

I think the board is super excited about Jalen and Cooper but that doesn't mean we won't have differing views if we start to talk about how fast the rookies will come "online" or how their potential stacks up against our existing players.  The difference is that we have a better idea of our returning players because they are battle tested and have proven something against NBA competition whereas our rookies are completely untested and so a bit more of a Rorschach test.  

I won't speak for anyone else but I pump the brakes when I hear talk about Jalen or Cooper being better than anyone on our team not so much because of what their theoretical upside looks like (it is very exciting for both of them) but moreso because I think our guys fall on the  high end of that spectrum for NBA players in general and they are all (at least in my eyes) proven "hits" against NBA competition.  So I need to see the rookies get meaningful time against similar competition before I'm going to make comparisons.  That isn't a lack of excitement because I'll be on the edge of my seat when they come into games.  

I'm embarrassed I didn't mention Huerter in my post.  I'm such a Huerter stan.   It's getting to be too much talent for me just to list without having to go back and proof to make sure I included everyone.

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23 hours ago, AHF said:

I don't know if Jalen has all the physical tools that Josh Smith did - will have to watch more of him to truly assess.  But what I do love in this comparison is that Josh had Grand Canyon sized holes in his game that with his stubborn nature were ultimately were his undoing as a player.  I don't see any real holes in Jalen's game.  Not that he is amazing at everything at this point but I don't see the glaring weaknesses that would make the parallel to Josh Smith really complete.  Because as great as Josh was at so many things, his jumper and insistence on emphasizing jump shooting overshadows every one of his gifts.

It is so early in Jalen's career that I'm not really putting expectations on him at this point.  He is a very exciting upside talent that could be a huge value pick for the Hawks.  I'm just eager to see him come along.

I can't fully agree there. I think people forget Josh became mid range shawty for a reason.

The issue was the timing in which he took his 3's. Admittedly it was a momentum killer. We as fans didn't make it better because we didn't give him a chance to develop that because of how good the rest of his game was.

That constant us vs him battle he had going on is what created the rift. Ultimately shortened his career because he refused to ease gaining a 3pt shot with grace.

He had the midrange down pack though.

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Someone asked if Jalen should be ahead of other guys on the depth chart right now.  I'm not saying he should get PT over anyone currently.  What does feel off for me was the reaction to the post that he could be better than Hunter, Reddish, and Huerter. 

I have seen this board react to summer league play of 1st rounders, 2nd rounders, and undrafted players and posters will give some crazy hype without much reason.  Jalen comes out and I honestly can't remember a summer league rookie on our team looking that good.  It was the WAY he got his buckets and played.  Some guys have put up stats, but this dude looked like a mixture of Josh Smith and John Collins.  He played so clean and smooth.  Completely in control.  It feels like the inverse of the blind hope that gets applied to other guys when they flash any potential in summer league.  More like irrational lowering of expectations and discarding how he looked.  To apply a term like Rorshach test to a guy who beasted like Jalen means you are going to an extreme degree to minimize what we saw.  Basically says his showing means absolutely nothing.

I will believe in a crude eye test until I see others make Jalen look ordinary.  Same with Cam.  This will be his 4th year to demonstrate his potential if you count Duke.  So far he has a pretty bad track record of living up to the hype.  Could be tons of flaws in my point of view.  I'm only sharing my reactions on a fan message board.  My take right now is Jalen >>> Cam.  

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I think Jalen will be productive in his minutes right off the bat, but it's obvious his role will be cleanup duty and injury replacement right off the bat. With a short offseason, and Covid protocols still enforced in full, it will mean he will likely get plenty of opportunities as it's likely injuries are a big theme this year just like they were last year. 

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1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

Someone asked if Jalen should be ahead of other guys on the depth chart right now.  I'm not saying he should get PT over anyone currently.  What does feel off for me was the reaction to the post that he could be better than Hunter, Reddish, and Huerter. 

I have seen this board react to summer league play of 1st rounders, 2nd rounders, and undrafted players and posters will give some crazy hype without much reason.  Jalen comes out and I honestly can't remember a summer league rookie on our team looking that good.  It was the WAY he got his buckets and played.  Some guys have put up stats, but this dude looked like a mixture of Josh Smith and John Collins.  He played so clean and smooth.  Completely in control.  It feels like the inverse of the blind hope that gets applied to other guys when they flash any potential in summer league.  More like irrational lowering of expectations and discarding how he looked.  To apply a term like Rorshach test to a guy who beasted like Jalen means you are going to an extreme degree to minimize what we saw.  Basically says his showing means absolutely nothing.

I will believe in a crude eye test until I see others make Jalen look ordinary.  Same with Cam.  This will be his 4th year to demonstrate his potential if you count Duke.  So far he has a pretty bad track record of living up to the hype.  Could be tons of flaws in my point of view.  I'm only sharing my reactions on a fan message board.  My take right now is Jalen >>> Cam.  

 

You know what it is, man?

It's the big elephant in the room.  We felt that we NEEDED Cam to not only be good, but very good, in order to justify the trade of "that dude in Dallas" for Trae Young + 1st rd pick ( Cam Reddish ).

That's part of the reason why people go so hard for Cam, and sell him very high on his potential.  It is our best interest that Cam becomes the player that people think he can be.  If he does, we become an elite team for the next 3 - 5 years minimum.

But the things you pointed out, are right on the money:

  • He didn't live up to expectations at Duke ( injury or no injury )
  • He had a rookie year in which, by analytic standards, he was very bad, despite showing promise after the All-Star break
  • And he had a 2nd year that also didn't start out that hot, even before he got hurt.

So now it's year 4.  He arguably have 3 wings on this team ( Bogi, Hunter, Huerter ) that the organization trusts.  And he has another hybrid 3/4 guy that could take minutes from him in Jalen Johnson.   This is the make or break year for him. 

To me, he doesn't have to be great.  He just needs to be consistent and a plus player on the floor.  No more sub 40% FG for the season.  No more sub 33% 3FG shooting.  Just be solid across the board.

Jalen Johnson, to me, is fantastic.  Can score at all 3 levels.  Can defend 1- 4 if need be.  And can create for others, a trait that neither Cam nor Hunter have in their offensive games yet.  If Jalen shows that he can consistently knock down long jumpers, it's going to be IMPOSSIBLE to keep him out of this lineup, in favor of guys who are off and on.  He just brings too many skills to the table.

You know . . that gives me an idea for a thread topic.

 

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Cam has underwhelmed so far but that's based on him. Not his potential which is off the charts. 

Cam offensive ceiling is Norm Powell. He's been performing closer to a terrible day Norm Powell than Powell outside of the playoffs. 

Defensively, Cam is inconsistent as well. He moves and covers ground like Danny Green but lacks the discipline Green has. It took Green going into his 3rd season to figure it our defensively. Danny was a 4 year college player. If Cam figures it out this year, that would probably be right on time. He also has tremendous perimeter versatility like Ben Simmons. He just doesn't have Ben's strength and body maturity. He's never going to have Ben's size but he needs to be a great size for his frame. 

Cam's right now outside of flashes is a rotational player impact wise. His talent screams star if he's consistent. Cam isn't a versatile offensively player but having tremendous skill,  being a bucket and scoring a lot in limited touches is extremely valuable to an offense impact wise. Especially one like ours. Cam's movement off the ball was a strength we saw Nate use that LP didn't bother as we saw with Bogi. 

Hunter of all three is the most limited scorer but he's the most polished scorer. He can shoot, pass, dribble, post up, and he has really good intelligence where he doesn't make stupid mistakes like the others. Hunter lack of tremendous skill, bigger hands, and off ball movement with a Kawhi mentality of wanting to analyze the game when he touches the ball kinds hurts him as a #4 or #5 option. That said, his defensive value for us is 2nd to only Capela. Even with Cam defensive potential, Hunter ability to guard 1-4 is a massive game changer for us. Hunter has shown time and time again that he's one of the most valuable defenders in the NBA even if no one knows outside of Atlanta.

 

JJ has tremendous potential and I see him more as a 4 than a 3. I can see why he's so appealing offensively as a swingman in general. Once he can showcase a reliable jumpshot, there is no question he is established as a 3 level scorer. He can also pass it and pass it extremely well for a 4 considering his age and experience. 

For JJ, shooting, off ball movement, off ball IQ, discipline when not involved or frustrated, and emotional intelligence is what defines him. A player that also comes to mind when I think about JJ is a young Rasheed Wallace. He's not quite as good as a rookie Sheed but the potential is enormous. 

 

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5 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Cam offensive ceiling is Norm Powell.

Dude I’m a Norman dude UCLA dude.. not really but loved him from the start but that’s not Cam’s ceiling. It’s gotta be PG13  ceiling wise and I know that’s high but you know Cam’s got it. The confidence and consistency has to show up this year and I know you can’t control injuries but he needs to stay healthy and play at least 65 games this year imo.

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