Kevin Huerter and Hawks begin talks on contract extension

[macdaddy]

32 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

The big question with extending these young mid round picks is, how much more are they gonna develop through the life of the contract? I like what I've seen from Huerter on that end, his numbers on the surface don't show big jumps of development but his game has grown so much especially on the defensive end this past season under Nate. I hope we can keep him. 

The thing for me is that even slightly overpaid wings who can shoot are moveable in the future.  Young ones that also have tools like Kvon and defensive size are even easier to move if we don't want him anymore at some point.   We paid Baze $19m and Huerter has a lot more tools.  

[Atlantaholic]

5 hours ago, macdaddy said:

The thing for me is that even slightly overpaid wings who can shoot are moveable in the future.  Young ones that also have tools like Kvon and defensive size are even easier to move if we don't want him anymore at some point.   We paid Baze $19m and Huerter has a lot more tools.  

I think the Baze deal was 17M, but it shouldn't be a reference for anything. It was an abysmal contract that made no sense at the time and even less a couple of years into the deal.

[JeffS17]

9 hours ago, Atlantaholic said:

The big question with extending these young mid round picks is, how much more are they gonna develop through the life of the contract? I like what I've seen from Huerter on that end, his numbers on the surface don't show big jumps of development but his game has grown so much especially on the defensive end this past season under Nate. I hope we can keep him. 

The question is really how deep into Ressler's pocket is his hand going to reach.  We have so much drafted talent free agency is no longer an option for us.  It's trades and paying guys using bird rights to go over the cap.  You really just don't want to overpay so high that the contract is hard to move if needed, but I don't really see that happening with Kev.  I think he's going to get 18 per easily.

[bleachkit]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

The question is really how deep into Ressler's pocket is his hand going to reach.  We have so much drafted talent free agency is no longer an option for us.  It's trades and paying guys using bird rights to go over the cap.  You really just don't want to overpay so high that the contract is hard to move if needed, but I don't really see that happening with Kev.  I think he's going to get 18 per easily.

As long as we are winning, it's all good.

[macdaddy]

16 hours ago, Atlantaholic said:

I think the Baze deal was 17M, but it shouldn't be a reference for anything. It was an abysmal contract that made no sense at the time and even less a couple of years into the deal.

My point being that contract wasn't an albatross or that hard to move.   Kevin will be easy to move if we want to in the future as long as he's in the reasonable range for someone with his tools.   I think anything under 20 per is going to look reasonable in a couple years

[AHF]

On 9/29/2021 at 12:06 PM, macdaddy said:

My point being that contract wasn't an albatross or that hard to move.   Kevin will be easy to move if we want to in the future as long as he's in the reasonable range for someone with his tools.   I think anything under 20 per is going to look reasonable in a couple years

It wasn't hard to move as long as you are trading one albatross type deal for another.  It is easy to take on garbage like Evan Turner who got paid $18.6M to play 19 games while putting up 3.3 points on 37% shooting for a nice set of negative metrics like his negative win shares or -5.4 BPM (Allen crapped the bed Crabbe looks good by comparison).  And he came with a bad attitude to boot.  That isn't an albatross for a team that isn't trying to win but becomes a much harder thing deal with when you are trying to compete.  The only way you move those deals is to find another negative value asset and hope things are better after that shuffle or to attach assets like draft picks to get someone to take those things.

I think you underestimate how much damage would have been done if we traded away someone to pick up an Evan Turner type player today or anytime in the next few years.

That said, I have wayyyyyy..................aayyyyyyyyy............aaayyyyyyyyyyy more confidence in Huerter to be a positive impact player who earns at least most of his money that I was about Baze or Turner.

[JayBirdHawk]

Still waiting....

Quote

Kevin Huerter, Hawks: Fresh off a surprise trip to the Eastern Conference finals, Atlanta backed up the Brinks truck with extensions for Trae Young (a five-year max that could reach $207 million), John Collins (five years, $125 million), and Clint Capela (two years, $46 million). Next in line is Huerter, who hasn’t quite lived up to the admittedly lofty billing of being the Klay Thompson to Young’s Stephen Curry in Travis Schlenk’s “Warriors East” roster construction, but who’s been a rock-solid off-guard who can handle the ball, create his own shot, drain pull-up 2s (51.6 percent last season) and catch-and-shoot 3s (39.3 percent for his career), and hold his own defensively.

He can also punish mismatches, as he showed repeatedly in Game 7 of the second round against Philly, when he tortured Seth Curry on his way to a game-high 27 points to help the Hawks knock off the top-seeded Sixers:

 

Just about every team in the league could use a player like Huerter in its wing rotation. At issue, though, is how much the Hawks themselves do, with Bogdan Bogdanovic in place and 2019 lottery picks De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish up for extensions of their own next summer. Will Atlanta just pay Huerter now—that Derrick White four-year, $73 million number looms large—to keep the good vibes rolling, or will they let Huerter roll into restricted free agency?

I keep saying both Reddish and Hunter have a ton of work to do to command those early extensions next offseason or they'll be rolling in RFAcy too.

https://www.theringer.com/2021/9/27/22687625/the-eight-big-questions-looming-over-nba-training-camps

[JayBirdHawk]

Hollinger and his EEV.

Kevin Huerter, Hawks (19th pick), EEV: four years $85 million

This might be on the high side for how people look at Huerter, but he’s a starting-caliber wing who offers some secondary creation ability in addition to his shooting. That skill set costs a pretty penny on the open market, especially when attached to a young player. The Hawks’ salary situation is at the point that they will face some hard decisions in the next two years on which young players to pay — even if they’re willing to go into the tax. However, Huerter has accomplished more than Atlanta’s other young wings and would still have trade value even after he’s signed. Overall, this is the non-max extension that I think has the best chance of happening.

 

https://theathletic.com/2871355/2021/10/06/hollinger-evaluating-contract-extensions-for-deandre-ayton-collin-sexton-and-rest-of-the-2018-class/

 

[JeffS17]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Hollinger and his EEV.

Kevin Huerter, Hawks (19th pick), EEV: four years $85 million

This might be on the high side for how people look at Huerter, but he’s a starting-caliber wing who offers some secondary creation ability in addition to his shooting. That skill set costs a pretty penny on the open market, especially when attached to a young player. The Hawks’ salary situation is at the point that they will face some hard decisions in the next two years on which young players to pay — even if they’re willing to go into the tax. However, Huerter has accomplished more than Atlanta’s other young wings and would still have trade value even after he’s signed. Overall, this is the non-max extension that I think has the best chance of happening.

 

https://theathletic.com/2871355/2021/10/06/hollinger-evaluating-contract-extensions-for-deandre-ayton-collin-sexton-and-rest-of-the-2018-class/

 

I wouldn't pay $85M in an early extension, but I would pay it if he plays well this season, improves a bit... we'll also know how Cam and Hunter are panning out by next offseason (Cam consistency? Hunter health?) so from a GM perspective it makes a lot of sense to make Heurter prove his worth this year.  I feel like Heurter is a nice locker room presence though (basing this off one article I read about him always willing to stay late and feed guys who are working on their shots) so who knows, maybe we pay him. 

[marco102]

 

https://theathletic.com/2880448/2021/10/12/life-after-game-7-for-kevin-huerter-includes-added-strength-and-a-possible-new-contract-with-the-hawks/

Quote

Life after Game 7: Kevin Huerter focused on next step of growth and a possible new contract with the Hawks

 

Kevin Huerter is the reason The Process in Philadelphia is currently on life support. Without Huerter scoring 27 points on 10-of-18 shooting against the 76ers in Game 7 of the East semifinals and lifting the Hawks into the 2021 Eastern Conference finals, who knows if Ben Simmons requests a trade and if he’s the clear scapegoat as to why Philadelphia did not realize its potential.

Throughout Game 7, Huerter took advantage of his smaller matchup against Seth Curry and got wherever he wanted on the floor, particularly inside the arc, finishing 8-of-14 inside the perimeter. Huerter’s performance helped the Hawks win their first Game 7 on the road. His life has changed just a bit since that night in Philadelphia.

“It was in the biggest moment, but it felt like it was my turn with how our team was rolling and how someone different was stepping up,” Huerter said. “The attention that came after that game, I mean, people can finally pronounce my last name. That was nice to see on TV and afterwards on social media.”

The next step for Huerter is to continue improving his ability to score at the rim. He wants to become a three-level scorer, but he’s still a below-average finisher inside the restricted area. He only made 59 percent of his attempts last season, but he’s continued to increase his effectiveness slightly each season. This offseason, Huerter worked extensively on improving his finishing moves at the rim as his next step of growth, and he wants to become one of the league’s best 3-point shooters, which he believes he can achieve.

“I want to become a more complete player,” Huerter said. “I can get up to an elite-level shooter. I can get up to being a 40 percent 3-point shooter. I’ve said it the last couple of years. It’s still a goal of mine, and I know it’s obtainable. Shooting it better percentage-wise from 3, getting to the basket and becoming more of a three-level scorer. Obviously defensively, I took a step forward last year. I want to become someone who’s reliable where you can switch me onto the opposing team’s best player and you’re not losing much.”

He's shown improvement in both his finishing and three point shooting in the preseason.   

[marco102]

Quote

With just days to go until the deadline, Huerter has faith he’ll have a new contract soon.

“I’m as confident as ever,” Huerter said. “I think both sides are saying the right things and want to get something done. Obviously, once you put pen to paper, you never truly know. I’m trying to let my agent and Travis handle it as much as they can. It can be something that goes right up until one of the last days. I hope it doesn’t. Hopefully, we can get something done freaking tomorrow. I’m as confident as I’ve ever been. I think both sides want to get something done. It’s obviously just coming up with the right value.”

I hope they do get something done.  

[thecampster]

I love me some Kevin but his numbers just don't justify anything over $15 million.  His per 36 last year was basically 14/4/4 with a PER of 12.1.

He's a 4 year - $60 million player right now (early extension numbers anyway).  Anything over $70mil will be an overpay IMHO.

The only stipulation here is Hunter's knees.  If Hunter isn't a long term solution, they'll need to lock up Kev.

[marco102]

9 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I love me some Kevin but his numbers just don't justify anything over $15 million.  His per 36 last year was basically 14/4/4 with a PER of 12.1.

He's a 4 year - $60 million player right now (early extension numbers anyway).  Anything over $70mil will be an overpay IMHO.

The only stipulation here is Hunter's knees.  If Hunter isn't a long term solution, they'll need to lock up Kev.

Right now he is, but considering the salary cap increases, I think I'd go up to 5 year $85 million contract with him. I'm not sure if you can do a five year extension before the season though. 

[JeffS17]

2 hours ago, thecampster said:

I love me some Kevin but his numbers just don't justify anything over $15 million.  His per 36 last year was basically 14/4/4 with a PER of 12.1.

He's a 4 year - $60 million player right now (early extension numbers anyway).  Anything over $70mil will be an overpay IMHO.

The only stipulation here is Hunter's knees.  If Hunter isn't a long term solution, they'll need to lock up Kev.

Heurter should fire his agent if he can only get him $15M/year.  Usage has held his numbers back as much as anything else.  We saw what Kev can do when he torched seth curry in that game 7 to help us make the ECF.  His defense is way better than pretty much all the guys hes being compared to in similar salary ranges.  

I really hope we aren't trying to be that stingy with our money -- there's only 1 ball on offense but you need 5 (4 since trae is on the floor) solid defenders to make noise late in the playoffs and kev is developing into a really nice 2way player.  He's also versatile in that he can ball handle, play 2 or 3, come off the bench, start, etc.  Not to mention the upcoming TV deal and expansion in the cap, and the fact guys like Duncan Robinson (who is a turnstile on defense) is getting 18M per.  $15M is such a low ball for Kev imo I think $17-18 is fair and if he is super money-motivated he can probably fetch close to $20M/year on the open market

[Guest]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/32388022/the-la-clippers-guard-terance-mann-agrees-two-year-22-million-contract-extension

This might give some perspective on what Kevin's contract could be.  Seems our guy is worth quite a bit more than $11 million per year.  $16 - $18 would be my guess on his extension parameters.  

 

[thecampster]

1 hour ago, LongTimeFan said:

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/32388022/the-la-clippers-guard-terance-mann-agrees-two-year-22-million-contract-extension

This might give some perspective on what Kevin's contract could be.  Seems our guy is worth quite a bit more than $11 million per year.  $16 - $18 would be my guess on his extension parameters.  

 

You get more per year (a bit) when you sign shorter term. 

[thecampster]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

Heurter should fire his agent if he can only get him $15M/year.  Usage has held his numbers back as much as anything else.  We saw what Kev can do when he torched seth curry in that game 7 to help us make the ECF.  His defense is way better than pretty much all the guys hes being compared to in similar salary ranges.  

I really hope we aren't trying to be that stingy with our money -- there's only 1 ball on offense but you need 5 (4 since trae is on the floor) solid defenders to make noise late in the playoffs and kev is developing into a really nice 2way player.  He's also versatile in that he can ball handle, play 2 or 3, come off the bench, start, etc.  Not to mention the upcoming TV deal and expansion in the cap, and the fact guys like Duncan Robinson (who is a turnstile on defense) is getting 18M per.  $15M is such a low ball for Kev imo I think $17-18 is fair and if he is super money-motivated he can probably fetch close to $20M/year on the open market

Per 36 doesn't really get affected by usage. It normalizes your numbers over a 36 minute playing sample. PER is a similar stat.  I'm using projected stats, not realized.

[thecampster]

A list of shooting guards with similar PPG and PER numbers to Kevin.  Let me know how many of these guys you would pay 1/2 of a max salary to.

24	Kelly Oubre Jr.GS
25	Gary Trent Jr.POR/TOR
26	Devonte' GrahamCHA
27	Kendrick NunnMIA
28	Josh JacksonDET
29	Duncan RobinsonMIA
30	Shake MiltonPHI
31	Alec BurksNY
32	Seth CurryPHI

[mrhonline]

 

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	MP	PER	TS%	3PAr	FTr	ORB%	DRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%		OWS	DWS	WS/48		OBPM	DBPM	VORP
1	Kevin Huerter	2020-21	22	69	2126	12.2	.541	.528	.088	2.0	9.7	16.3	1.9	0.7	9.4	17.2		1.9	1.7	.080		-0.7	0.1	0.8
2	Furkan Korkmaz	2020-21	23	55	1062	12.8	.544	.634	.193	1.8	9.8	11.1	2.2	0.8	9.1	20.5		0.6	1.5	.092		-0.3	0.1	0.5

 

Thought this was an interesting comparison. Huerter is obviously the better player (playmaker, defender), but how much more? Furkan just re-signed for 3 years, $15M.

[thecampster]

35 minutes ago, mrhonline said:

 

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	MP	PER	TS%	3PAr	FTr	ORB%	DRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%		OWS	DWS	WS/48		OBPM	DBPM	VORP
1	Kevin Huerter	2020-21	22	69	2126	12.2	.541	.528	.088	2.0	9.7	16.3	1.9	0.7	9.4	17.2		1.9	1.7	.080		-0.7	0.1	0.8
2	Furkan Korkmaz	2020-21	23	55	1062	12.8	.544	.634	.193	1.8	9.8	11.1	2.2	0.8	9.1	20.5		0.6	1.5	.092		-0.3	0.1	0.5

 

Thought this was an interesting comparison. Huerter is obviously the better player (playmaker, defender), but how much more? Furkan just re-signed for 3 years, $15M.

Per 36 for Korkmaz is 17 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.8 apg on 40.1% FG%, 37.5% 3FG%.

Per 36 for Huerter is 13.9 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 4.1 apg on 43.2% FG%, 36.3 3FG%.

 

I wouldn't argue against Huerter having the better defense, upside and intangibles.  But like you said, Korkmaz just signed for 3 years at 5mil per season. People are so eager to spend other people's money. Giving Kevin 18 or 20 per is madness.