Kevin Huerter and Hawks begin talks on contract extension

[JeffS17]

We'll see what Kev gets but I really don't see him inking a $15M/yr with us.  Per 36 doesn't impact usage by the way, just normalizes minutes.  Every time Kev shares the court with Cam and Cam is shooting 10 bricks that's taking away opportunities for Kev.  Same for all the other guys that have to get touches on our team.  JC had the same issue but still got paid.

[JTB]

Huerter will be a hawk for a long time. Bogi on the other hand will not be. 

[bleachkit]

4 hours ago, thecampster said:

Per 36 for Korkmaz is 17 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.8 apg on 40.1% FG%, 37.5% 3FG%.

Per 36 for Huerter is 13.9 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 4.1 apg on 43.2% FG%, 36.3 3FG%.

 

I wouldn't argue against Huerter having the better defense, upside and intangibles.  But like you said, Korkmaz just signed for 3 years at 5mil per season. People are so eager to spend other people's money. Giving Kevin 18 or 20 per is madness.

I love Kev. But 20 per? Come on. 

[RedDawg#8]

At his best, Kev is a 12, 4 and 4 guy.

Take that how you want 

[thecampster]

10 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

We'll see what Kev gets but I really don't see him inking a $15M/yr with us.  Per 36 doesn't impact usage by the way, just normalizes minutes.  Every time Kev shares the court with Cam and Cam is shooting 10 bricks that's taking away opportunities for Kev.  Same for all the other guys that have to get touches on our team.  JC had the same issue but still got paid.

FYI, go back 18 months ago and look at my posts. I was stating back then that JC's numbers dictated he'd get a near max contract. I'm usually pretty close on these things.

JC's last 3 season average - 19/9 on 57% shooting and he shot 40% from 3 the last 2 years.

Kev's last 3 season average - 11.2/3.3/3.5 on 42% shooting and 37% from 3.

 

You can argue usage vs per36 vs floor companions all you want but comparing JC's restricted free agent year to Kev's extension year is very much apples to smoked cod. I love me some smoked cod but you can't compare the 2.  Offering the guy a 4 year deal starting at 13.2 and ending at 16.8 is hardly sneezing in his coffee.  Its what you pay if you want to keep him. It isn't what he's earned (stats wise).

Consider Bogi on extremely similar usage.  14/3.3/3.5 on 43% shooting and 37.5% from 3. The are almost the same player with Bogi being more mature, more aggressive, scoring 2.8 more ppg. He got 18 million on a compete to keep you contract (signed away in restricted free agency). The contract is less on an extension and Kev is younger, putting up slightly less in numbers/%.  15 per is right where he fits. His agent should take it and smile.

[Atlantaholic]

6 hours ago, RedDawg#8 said:

At his best, Kev is a 12, 4 and 4 guy.

Take that how you want 

that's what he has averaged up to this point. I would say that's his floor not his ceiling, no?

[macdaddy]

Kevin is really only coming off the bench at this point because we have Bogi and he's better.   But Kevin could easily be a starter for this team.   

[JeffS17]

4 hours ago, thecampster said:

FYI, go back 18 months ago and look at my posts. I was stating back then that JC's numbers dictated he'd get a near max contract. I'm usually pretty close on these things.

JC's last 3 season average - 19/9 on 57% shooting and he shot 40% from 3 the last 2 years.

Kev's last 3 season average - 11.2/3.3/3.5 on 42% shooting and 37% from 3.

 

You can argue usage vs per36 vs floor companions all you want but comparing JC's restricted free agent year to Kev's extension year is very much apples to smoked cod. I love me some smoked cod but you can't compare the 2.  Offering the guy a 4 year deal starting at 13.2 and ending at 16.8 is hardly sneezing in his coffee.  Its what you pay if you want to keep him. It isn't what he's earned (stats wise).

Consider Bogi on extremely similar usage.  14/3.3/3.5 on 43% shooting and 37.5% from 3. The are almost the same player with Bogi being more mature, more aggressive, scoring 2.8 more ppg. He got 18 million on a compete to keep you contract (signed away in restricted free agency). The contract is less on an extension and Kev is younger, putting up slightly less in numbers/%.  15 per is right where he fits. His agent should take it and smile.

Yeah, maybe you're right, but I just am usually wrong on the low side so I thought ~17-18 was about right.  The league is growing fast and the salaries grow with it.

 

Unrelated question -- can another team offer a max rookie contract to a player that is in RFA?  Or can only the team that drafted the player offer that?

[RedDawg#8]

2 hours ago, Atlantaholic said:

that's what he has averaged up to this point. I would say that's his floor not his ceiling, no?

Those are his highest totals across his 3 seasons.

He was able to play 30+ mins a game  the past 2 seasons, which may not happen again due to the depth of the roster. That's why I don't think his averages will change much going forward. 

Does he have the talent to average more, sure. But will we ever get to see it so long as his minutes stay the same or even lessen on a healthy roster? I doubt it. 

Kev is skilled, but his lack of aggression will always keep his numbers down. A 20 point performance sandwiched between games in the single digits. That's been his M.O.

He is a high level role player/ utility starter. You can't take one breakout performance and ignore the larger resume that shows he will score in the single digits 3x as often as he will score 20+, true in the both regular season and playoffs 

[AHF]

Just now, JeffS17 said:

Unrelated question -- can another team offer a max rookie contract to a player that is in RFA?  Or can only the team that drafted the player offer that?

Any team (with the cap room) can offer a maximum contract but a team holding bird rights can offer higher raises on that maximum contract.  (If you recall with JC the maximum contracts other teams could offer was materially lower than what we could offer if we included the higher raises.)

[thecampster]

7 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Yeah, maybe you're right, but I just am usually wrong on the low side so I thought ~17-18 was about right.  The league is growing fast and the salaries grow with it.

 

Unrelated question -- can another team offer a max rookie contract to a player that is in RFA?  Or can only the team that drafted the player offer that?

Next offseason, Kevin will be a Restricted Free Agent (RFA). As an RFA, any team can offer anything to him up to his max slot.  Most teams don't do this unless they are sure the other team won't match because once you make that offer, that salary is locked on your salary cap and you can't use it to sign anyone else. An offer sheet works just like a cap hold in that way.

[JeffS17]

10 minutes ago, AHF said:

Any team (with the cap room) can offer a maximum contract but a team holding bird rights can offer higher raises on that maximum contract.  (If you recall with JC the maximum contracts other teams could offer was materially lower than what we could offer if we included the higher raises.)

I know the raises can be higher with bird rights but what about the +5% of max kicker you get for getting all NBA/MVP/DPOY?

[AHF]

8 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Those are his highest totals across his 3 seasons.

He was able to play 30+ mins a game  the past 2 seasons, which may not happen again due to the depth of the roster. That's why I don't think his averages will change much going forward. 

Kev is skilled, but his lack of aggression will always keep his numbers down. A 20 point performance sandwiched between games in the single digits. That's been his M.O.

I don't think he has reached his peak but this is all good context that cautions against thinking he has a much  higher statistical upside based on what we've seen from him.

36 minutes per game would be a really aggressive assumption for him and his per 36 last season was 13.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 4.1 assists.  It would take a fundamental change in his aggression to really transform those numbers.  In terms of upside over last season, he shot only 36% from 3pt range last year and peak Huerter should be at 40% at some point in his career which would help his raw production and efficiency.

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

I know the raises can be higher with bird rights but what about the +5% of max kicker you get for getting all NBA/MVP/DPOY?

What you are talking about is the Designated Rookie Extension.  That is only available to the team that owns their bird rights so they need to resign with their own team or be traded to another team which can then use those rights to designate the player.  Teams are limited to two players resigned on the DRE and only one of them can have been acquired by trade.

[JeffS17]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

What you are talking about is the Designated Rookie Extension.  That is only available to the team that owns their bird rights so they need to resign with their own team or be traded to another team which can then use those rights to designate the player.  Teams are limited to two players resigned on the DRE and only one of them can have been acquired by trade.

So a team can always save money by not paying their star players and then just matching?  Like the Suns w/Ayton right now?

[AHF]

1 minute ago, JeffS17 said:

So a team can always save money by not paying their star players and then just matching?  Like the Suns w/Ayton right now?

Yes.  In turn, if the player is angry at that treatment they can simply sign a one-year deal with their current team and walk as an UFA after that season.  Or it could precipitate a situation like Ben Simmons where the player signs the new deal and then makes life ugly for their team because they felt they were mistreated.

My view on JC was that if he wanted this type of contract that we should not give it under any circumstances and should instead just match whatever offer he signed.

[JeffS17]

35 minutes ago, AHF said:

Yes.  In turn, if the player is angry at that treatment they can simply sign a one-year deal with their current team and walk as an UFA after that season.  Or it could precipitate a situation like Ben Simmons where the player signs the new deal and then makes life ugly for their team because they felt they were mistreated.

My view on JC was that if he wanted this type of contract that we should not give it under any circumstances and should instead just match whatever offer he signed.

Makes sense -- I was thinking about Ayton's situation with the Suns right now.  I feel like Sarver and co are blowing a lot of good will just to save a little money with the guy who should be a key piece of their future core.

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Makes sense -- I was thinking about Ayton's situation with the Suns right now.  I feel like Sarver and co are blowing a lot of good will just to save a little money with the guy who should be a key piece of their future core.

No argument there.  Seems penny-wise, pound-foolish to me.

[JayBirdHawk]

[ATLHawks3]

18 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Not too worried, even if the deal doesn't get done before the season starts. Both sides know that Kevin is a priority for the team long term.