Are we gonna do the dynasty draft this year?


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FWIW I tallied the "SUM-MELOS" (explained on page 81 in the back of the below Dynasty Draft thread -- Please excuse Miss Ashley, she's fresh from the shower! Don't be so Juddmental!)...

... for 2016-17 through 2020-21 and will summarize the results either this week or next depending on when I get freed up. 

Some early items gleaned from the assessment...

* SUM-MELO, back in 2016, correctly predicted four of the top five 2020-21 finishers, albeit not in order.

* Jokic and Embiid were drafted WHERE???

* Most everyone drafted between two and five players who are long gone from the NBA by 2020-21. @Diesel, @h4wkfan, JayBirdHawk, and @ViewsFromTheSquawk fared the best in drafting players still active.

* 12 of 16 teams finished Top-5 in at least one season.

* 2 teams finished 2020-21 better than in 2016-17

* 6 teams finished 2020-21 better than in 2019-20

* The top nine 2020-21 finishers all exceeded 2016 predictions of SUM-MELO for that fifth season, by a range of 17 to 37 percent.

* "Champs" (Top spots in SUM-MELO) for each season... @Alex (2016-17), @capstone21 (2017-18), @JayBirdHawk (2018-19, best single season over five years), and two-time reigning champ @AHF (2019-20, 2020-21)

* 2020-21's top five finishers drafted at the top (1st), early-middle (7th and 8th), and bottom (15th and 16th) of the Dynasty Draft. Top-5 in 2020-21... AHF, @Buzzard, capstone21, JayBirdHawk, and @HopefulHawksFan.

 

~lw3

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9 minutes ago, lethalweapon3 said:

FWIW I tallied the "SUM-MELOS" (explained on page 81 in the back of the below Dynasty Draft thread -- Please excuse Miss Ashley, she's fresh from the shower! Don't be so Juddmental!)...

... for 2016-17 through 2020-21 and will summarize the results either this week or next depending on when I get freed up. 

Some early items gleaned from the assessment...

* SUM-MELO, back in 2016, correctly predicted four of the top five 2020-21 finishers, albeit not in order.

* Jokic and Embiid were drafted WHERE???

* Most everyone drafted between two and five players who are long gone from the NBA by 2020-21. @Diesel, @h4wkfan, JayBirdHawk, and @ViewsFromTheSquawk fared the best in drafting players still active.

* 12 of 16 teams finished Top-5 in at least one season.

* 2 teams finished 2020-21 better than in 2016-17

* 6 teams finished 2020-21 better than in 2019-20

* The top nine 2020-21 finishers all exceeded 2016 predictions of SUM-MELO for that fifth season, by a range of 17 to 37 percent.

* "Champs" (Top spots in SUM-MELO) for each season... @Alex (2016-17), @capstone21 (2017-18), @JayBirdHawk (2018-19, best single season over five years), and two-time reigning champ @AHF (2019-20, 2020-21)

* 2020-21's top five finishers drafted at the top (1st), early-middle (7th and 8th), and bottom (15th and 16th) of the Dynasty Draft. Top-5 in 2020-21... AHF, @Buzzard, capstone21, JayBirdHawk, and @HopefulHawksFan.

 

~lw3

Perfect 👍 Just where I like to be, not slippin and not showing off. :indifferent: 

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9 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

I am game and also are we doing another Yahoo Squawk Basketball League? I have bem in one of those as well for several years.

I just went into Yahoo and see the live draft is October 11th!

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6 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Ya I was just gonna tell u that. But now I noticed 12 teams we should have kept it at 10, oh well.

Why should it be 10? Not enough players or something?

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* Summations of CARMELO scores (SUM-MELOs) assumed a minus-0.1 score for players who were inactive/retired/had an unavailable CARMELO score in any particular season.

TOP-FIVES BY SEASON

 

2016-17:

1.       Whining Spartans Fan (@Alex) – 54.6

2.       @AHF U-Niques – 54.1

3.       (tie-3rd) H4wkfans (@h4wkfan / @IheartVolt) – 51.1

4.       (tie-3rd) New Day Rocks (@LucastheThird) – 51.1

5.       Atlanta Ganstaslappas (@Diesel) – 48.5

Dynasty MVP: Kawhi Leonard (Whining Spartans Fan) – 15.2

Scoring Leader: Stephen Curry (H4wkfans) – 17.3

 

2017-18:

1.       Capstone’s Crew (@capstone21) – 58.1

2.       AHF U-Niques – 57.7

3.       Flocking Buzzards (@Buzzard) – 56.7

4.       Birds of a Feather (@PSSSHHHRRR87) – 48.3

5.       Lethal Obsession (@lethalweapon3) – 44.7

Dynasty MVP: Victor Oladipo (Capstone’s Crew) – 14.1

Scoring Leader: James Harden (Flocking Buzzards) – 17.4

 

2018-19:

1.       Jaybird Lady Squawkers (@JayBirdHawk) – 60.6

2.       AHF U-Niques – 58.9

3.       Flocking Buzzards – 53.2

4.       New Day Rocks – 46.2

5.       Hopeful Hawks Fans (@HopefulHawksFan) – 45.2

Dynasty MVP: Paul George (Jaybird Lady Squawkers) – 18.5

Scoring Leader: James Harden (Flocking Buzzards) – 20.1

 

2019-20:

1.       AHF U-Niques – 53.3

2.       Flocking Buzzards – 42.7

3.       (tie-3rd) Atlanta Air Force (@pimp) – 37.4

4.       (tie-3rd) Birds of a Feather – 37.4

5.       (tie-5th) Lethal Obsession – 36.5

6.       (tie-5th) New Day Rocks – 36.5

Dynasty MVP: Rudy Gobert (AHF U-Niques) – 11.4

Scoring Leader: James Harden (Flocking Buzzards) – 19.4

 

2020-21:

1.       AHF U-Niques – 46.1

2.       Flocking Buzzards – 44.3

3.       Capstone’s Crew – 41.8

4.       Jaybird Lady Sqauwkers – 37.1

5.       Hopeful Hawks Fans – 33.1

Dynasty MVP: Rudy Gobert (AHF U-Niques) – 13.6

Scoring Leader: Nikola Jokic (Hopeful Hawks Fans) – 17.5

 

Individual team profiles to follow.

~lw3

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AHF U-NIQUES

GM/PBO: AHF

Head Coach: Quin Snyder

First-Round Draft Position: 7th

2020-21 Projection in 2016: 35.1 (2nd)

2020-21 Finish: 46.1 (1st, above Projection by 31.3%)

Likely 8-Player Rotation: Kyle Lowry, Jamal Murray, Jaylen Brown, Kevin Durant, Rudy Gobert; Marcus Smart, Danny Green, Dario Saric

Scouting Report: Likely the most successful of teams with a current All-Star-level starting five, especially if Murray could have stayed healthy in time for 2021's postseason.

SUM-MELOs by Season: 54.1 (2nd in 2016-17) / 57.7 (2nd in 2017-18) / 58.9 (2nd in 2018-19) / 53.3 (1st in 2019-20) / 46.1 (1st in 2020-21)

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FLOCKING BUZZARDS

GM/PBO: Buzzard

Head Coach: Dwane Casey

First-Round Draft Position: 15th

2020-21 Projection in 2016: 36.7 (1st)

2020-21 Finish: 44.3 (2nd, above Projection by 20.7%)

Likely 8-Player Rotation: John Wall, Jrue Holiday, James Harden, Kyle Anderson, Joel Embiid; Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jakob Poeltl

Scouting Report: Led by a pair of perennial MVP contenders (incl. Embiid at pick #96), the Buzzards would fly higher with a healthy Wall, but at least Holiday has picked up the slack.

SUM-MELOs by Season: 42.8 (10th in 2016-17) / 56.7 (3rd in 2017-18) / 53.2 (3rd in 2018-19) / 42.7 (2nd in 2019-20) / 44.3 (2nd in 2020-21)

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CAPSTONE’S CREW

GM/PBO: capstone21

Head Coach: Mike Budenholzer

First-Round Draft Position: 1st

2020-21 Projection in 2016: 27.8 (5th)

2020-21 Finish: 41.8 (3rd, above Projection by 50.4%)

Likely 8-Player Rotation: Reggie Jackson, Nicolas Batum, Harrison Barnes, Karl-Anthony Towns, Clint Capela; Victor Oladipo, Rudy Gay, Al Horford

Scouting Report: Buoyed by lots of still-active NBA players, Horford's and Oladipo's ebbs have been compensated on the Crew by the rebounding careers of several veterans.

SUM-MELOs by Season: 47.1 (6th in 2016-17) / 58.1 (1st in 2017-18) / 43.7 (5th in 2018-19) / 27.0 (11th in 2019-20) / 41.8 (3rd in 2020-21)

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JAYBIRD LADY SQUAWKERS

GM/PBO: JayBirdHawk

Head Coach: Gregg Popovich

First-Round Draft Position: 8th

2020-21 Projection in 2016: 26.0 (10th)

2020-21 Finish: 37.1 (4th, above Projection by 42.7%)

Likely 8-Player Rotation: Mike Conley, Khris Middleton, Paul George, Dwight Powell, Jusuf Nurkic; Justise Winslow, Jabari Parker, Steven Adams

Scouting Report: Although guard depth is a challenge, the Lady Squawkers would have a sturdy starting five in 2021, especially if Coach Pop could figure a way to get Adams and Nurkic on the floor together.

SUM-MELOs by Season: 33.2 (15th in 2016-17) / 40.1 (8th in 2017-18) / 60.6 (Peak Season by any team, 1st in 2018-19) / 28.6 (10th in 2019-20) / 37.1 (4th in 2020-21)

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HOPEFUL HAWKS FANS

GM/PBO: HopefulHawksFan

Head Coach: Erik Spoelstra

First-Round Draft Position: 16th

2020-21 Projection in 2016: 28.0 (3rd)

2020-21 Finish: 33.1 (5th, above Projection by 18.2%)

Likely 8-Player Rotation: Kyrie Irving, Goran Dragic, Aaron Gordon, Domantas Sabonis, Nikola Jokic; Malik Beasley, Taurean Prince, Hassan Whiteside

Scouting Report: A few too many retirees and inactives to contend in 2021, but the Hopefuls hit it out the park with picks like MVP Jokic at #48 and Sabonis to support Kyrie.

SUM-MELOs by Season: 35.1 (13th in 2016-17) / 34.8 (10th in 2017-18) / 45.2 (5th in 2018-19) / 33.6 (8th in 2019-20) / 33.1 (5th in 2020-21)

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VIEWS’ SQUAD

GM/PBO: @ViewsFromTheSquawk

Head Coach: Brad Stevens

First-Round Draft Position: 3rd

2020-21 Projection in 2016: 22.1 (13th)

2020-21 Finish: 31.2 (6th, above Projection by 41.2%)

Likely 8-Player Rotation: Russell Westbrook, Buddy Hield, Gordon Hayward, Julius Randle, Nikola Vucevic; D’Angelo Russell, Derrick Rose, Norman Powell

Scouting Report: A sturdy crew now led by Randle, the Russells' high-volume but low-MELO scores and Hayward's injuries keep them from climbing higher.

SUM-MELOs by Season: 37.8 (12th in 2016-17) / 23.9 (15th in 2017-18) / 37.7 (10th in 2018-19) / 24.4 (14th in 2019-20) / 31.2 (6th in 2020-21)

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SPUDSTERS

GM/PBO: Spud2Nique

Head Coach: Billy Donovan

First-Round Draft Position: 13th

2020-21 Projection in 2016: 27.3 (tie-7th)

2020-21 Finish: 31.0 (7th, above Projection by 13.6%)

Likely 8-Player Rotation: Dennis Schröder, Devin Booker, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Gorgui Dieng; Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Stanley Johnson, Tristan Thompson

Scouting Report: Booker and Jimmy hitting their strides, with Draymond holding steady in 2021, keeps this boat afloat. A few of the overseas selections didn't pan out in the long run.

SUM-MELOs by Season: 43.0 (9th in 2016-17) / 31.4 (12th in 2017-18) / 28.1 (13th in 2018-19) / 30.7 (9th in 2019-20) / 31.0 (7th in 2020-21)

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ATLANTA GANSTASLAPPAS

GM/PBO: Diesel

Head Coach: Stan Van Gundy

First-Round Draft Position: 14th

2020-21 Projection in 2016: 17.0 (15th)

2020-21 Finish: 30.8 (8th, above Projection by League-best 81.2%)

Likely 8-Player Rotation: Jordan Clarkson, Klay Thompson, Jae Crowder, Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond; Cory Joseph, George Hill, Thaddeus Young

Scouting Report: With the sole inactives as BIG3 title contenders, the Slappas still have lots of role-playing bigs and a super sixth-man. Would rank higher with a functional Klay and Kevin Love.

SUM-MELOs by Season: 48.5 (5th in 2016-17) / 33.9 (11th in 2017-18) / 42.1 (8th in 2018-19) / 25.3 (13th in 2019-20) / 30.8 (8th in 2020-21)

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BIRDS OF A FEATHER

GM/PBO: PSSSHHHRRR87

Head Coach: Kenny Atkinson

First-Round Draft Position: 2nd

2020-21 Projection in 2016: 19.3 (14th)

2020-21 Finish: 30.1 (9th, above Projection by 56.0%)

Likely 8-Player Rotation: LeBron James, Andrew Wiggins, Robert Covington, Kelly Olynyk, Serge Ibaka; Rajon Rondo, Alec Burks, Dwight Howard

Scouting Report: LeBron is still going strong, and he's flanked by serviceable forwards and bigs. Sadly, the options at the guard spots has Bron extending arms in frustration.

SUM-MELOs by Season: 45.4 (8th in 2016-17) / 48.3 (4th in 2017-18) / 27.1 (tie-14th in 2018-19) / 37.4 (tie-3rdin 2019-20) / 30.1 (9th in 2020-21)

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LETHAL OBSESSION

GM/PBO: lethalweapon3

Head Coach: Terry Stotts

First-Round Draft Position: 11th

2020-21 Projection in 2016: 31.3 (3rd)

2020-21 Finish: 27.9 (10th, below Projection by 10.9%)

Likely 8-Player Rotation: Chris Paul, Brandon Ingram, Kent Bazemore, Bobby Portis, Jonas Valanciunas; Josh Richardson, Robin Lopez, Kristaps Porzingis

Scouting Report: A mediocre squad, despite a pair of All-Star-caliber guards and serviceable bigs. Aside from Porzingis, drop-offs from prior-season peaks have been mild.

SUM-MELOs by Season: 33.7 (14th in 2016-17) / 44.7 (5th in 2017-18) / 21.8 (16th in 2018-19) / 36.5 (tie-5th in 2019-20) / 27.9 (10th in 2020-21)

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NEW DAY ROCKS

GM/PBO: LucastheThird

Head Coach: Jason Kidd

First-Round Draft Position: 10th

2020-21 Projection in 2016: 26.5 (9th)

2020-21 Finish: 27.6 (11th, above Projection by 4.2%)

Likely 8-Player Rotation: Kemba Walker, Seth Curry, Bradley Beal, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nerlens Noel; Elfrid Payton, Dion Waiters, LaMarcus Aldridge

Scouting Report: Giannis, Brad, and Kemba could only carry this collective but so far. Much of the supporting cast either have moved on, are playing overseas, or soon will be.

SUM-MELOs by Season: 51.1 (tie-3rd in 2016-17) / 41.8 (6th in 2017-18) / 46.2 (4th in 2018-19) / 36.5 (tie-5th in 2019-20) / 27.6 (11th in 2020-21)

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H4WKFANS

GM/PBO: h4wkfan / iheartVolt

Head Coach: Rick Carlisle

First-Round Draft Position: 5th

2020-21 Projection in 2016: 27.4 (6th)

2020-21 Finish: 26.2 (12th, below Projection by 4.4 percent)

Likely 8-Player Rotation: Stephen Curry, Evan Fournier, Will Barton, Derrick Favors, Myles Turner; Patrick Beverley, Patty Mills, Wesley Matthews

Scouting Report: Curry and Turner hold up the tentpoles for a squad loaded with active players who peaked at least a couple seasons ago.

SUM-MELOs by Season: 51.1 (tie-3rd in 2016-17) / 36.2 (9th in 2017-18) / 43.5 (7th in 2018-19) / 33.7 (7th in 2019-20) / 26.2 (12th in 2020-21)

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