Would a Ben Simmons trade be crazy?

[JTB]

I know @Diesel has already mentioned this like a thousand times if not more but I’m really wondering if a Simmons trade would be worth it.

First off I’m ONLY speaking of Simmons trade if it is a done deal he plays Center (or rather point forward) offensively and PF defensively.

Obviously there’s some pros and cons and clearly we’d had to give up a core player as well as give up Capela. It would be a 3 team deal if it could ever happen. Since many on the board rants on about defense so much I figured the ALL defense minded folks would love such a possibility.

 Take a moment and add Simmons in the starting 5 in Capelas place. As long as we keep Collins who would go back to starting center defensively and obviously we keep Trae with shooters at every other spot we are basically in the same boat offensively as we are with capela currently.

PG - Trae

SG - Huerter or Bogi

SF - Hunter or Cam

F - Simmons 

F - Collins 

 

We go away from the traditional lineup of having a true center and join the era of small ball by adding Simmons to the starting lineup as a Point Forward. We keep 2 of either Huerter or Bogi at the 2 to start and Cam or Hunter at the 3 to start.

Simmons isn’t a scorer by any means but if we are running a true small ball team both Simmons or Collins will have a speed/quickness advantage vs teams who roll out a true center. Again by no means is Simmons a true scorer but I’ve watched him long enough to know his strengths despite being afraid to shoot. If you send a true big out Simmons way to guard him, he will take that big off the dribble and get a easy layup …he’s also great in the open court and he’s a fantastic passer though to me not better than Trae who I consider a true playmaker. Simmons 16/8/8 could go a long way here and open up Collins to truly be our second scorer as Collins would now have two setup artist!

There’s no need to go into defense ….Simmons has proven he’s top notch elite at that end. But what we would be giving up is size in the post like before capela came and even some nights with capela here we still our but give JC credit he’s become a two way player and may actually do a lot better at center defensively  than he did earlier in his career besides no offense to Capela it’s not like he’s stopping the elite post scorers nor should he be necessarily.

 

I think it’s worth looking into. I see positives and clearly negatives with Simmons not shooting but the offense can be designed to take advantage of Trae and Simmons playmaking skills and no matter what us fans say the front office want to get the ball out of Traes hands more. Then look at Collins …he is so efficient he need more scoring opportunities but if Trae is the only one who can get him the ball at good spots that’s a problem. Trae and Simmons can figure out how to work off of each other. Another good passer may unlock a part of Traes game we haven’t seen yet.

 

The two biggest issues with Simmons is only him shooting and Hawks not having a true center size player for the big matchups. Other than that I would trade for Ben.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Any trade involving Simmons probably sends either Cam or Hunter + either Bogi or Huerter + 1st rd pick to Philly.  That would be my minimum asking price if I were them.  Philly has no use for Capela, but could use a 2-way wing and another shooter.  They'd probably want Collins though.

 

• PG - Trae
• G - Bogi
• F - Simmons
• PF - Collins 
• C - Capela

 

As much as I talk about the need for the Hawks to play big, I honestly love this lineup.  It's obvious this team needs to establish some sort of defensive identity, and this lineup would definitely do it.   

 

[JTB]

1 minute ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Any trade involving Simmons probably sends either Cam or Hunter + either Bogi or Huerter + 1st rd pick to Philly.  That would be my minimum asking price if I were them.  Philly has no use for Capela, but could use a 2-way wing and another shooter.  They'd probably want Collins though.

 

• PG - Trae
• G - Bogi
• F - Simmons
• PF - Collins 
• C - Capela

 

As much as I talk about the need for the Hawks to play big, I honestly love this lineup.  It's obvious this team needs to establish some sort of defensive identity, and this lineup would definitely do it.   

 

If we can’t involve a 3rd team for capela and be sure to keep collins in the trade along with Bogi or Huerter and Cam or Hunter I wouldn’t do it.

the lineup you have would clearly benefit defense overall but the offense would be even worse then it is now. You can’t have capela and Simmons in a starting 5. It’s either treat Simmons as a traditional center who you know can’t shoot but have some great added  benefits with abilities to passing and above avg athleticism or just don’t get the kid at all.

at this point it should be well received Simmons has to play with 4 shooters. While this lineup isn’t an all world defense it does give us the ability to switch at positions 3-5 defensively and be a good team defense. 

Pg- Trae (poor defender)

Sg- Huerter or Bogi (Could be avg defenders if the right talent is around either of them)

Sf- Hunter (elite defense potential)

Pf-Simmons (already established as an elite defender)

C-Collins (has turned into a good defender)

 

[terrell]

19 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Any trade involving Simmons probably sends either Cam or Hunter + either Bogi or Huerter + 1st rd pick to Philly.  That would be my minimum asking price if I were them.  Philly has no use for Capela, but could use a 2-way wing and another shooter.  They'd probably want Collins though.

 

• PG - Trae
• G - Bogi
• F - Simmons
• PF - Collins 
• C - Capela

 

As much as I talk about the need for the Hawks to play big, I honestly love this lineup.  It's obvious this team needs to establish some sort of defensive identity, and this lineup would definitely do it.   

 

Simmons and Capela on the floor together? Yikes......

 

[Diesel]

9 minutes ago, terrell said:

Simmons and Capela on the floor together? Yikes......

 

It's not that bad.    The defense is what will be better. Offensively, you still have guys who score and if you use Simmons correctly, he's a bigger asset.

[JTB]

Just to be clear to everyone who may read this thread…im only purposing a Simmons trade if we trade capela (3 team trade) and play Simmons as a point forward or playmaking center if there’s a such thing.

With shooters all around him in the starting lineup. I believe Simmons playing primarily at the 4 or 5 with Trae and Collins will open up his game to the max.

plus I personally believe such a move would give collins the sure nod as the teams second go to scorer.

[JTB]

50 minutes ago, Diesel said:

It's not that bad.    The defense is what will be better. Offensively, you still have guys who score and if you use Simmons correctly, he's a bigger asset.

The offense wouldn’t work. I think if we are speaking on adding Simmons with Capela then we are wasting time. Simmons is a glorified center in this era.

[Sothron]

There's no way on Earth Simmons is going to play point forward. He's been asked to do that for years in Philly and he refuses. He only will play point guard. 

[Threezus]

2 hours ago, JTB said:

Just to be clear to everyone who may read this thread…im only purposing a Simmons trade if we trade capela (3 team trade) and play Simmons as a point forward or playmaking center if there’s a such thing.

With shooters all around him in the starting lineup. I believe Simmons playing primarily at the 4 or 5 with Trae and Collins will open up his game to the max.

plus I personally believe such a move would give collins the sure nod as the teams second go to scorer.

The biggest problem with that is i would be willing to bet Simmons is long traded before  next season which is the soonest you could move Capela in a 3 team trade.  Capela is stuck with the Hawks no matter what this entire year and is impossible to trade.

[bleachkit]

It's too risky, no way Hawks would trade for him. His shooting issues, plus he's much of a team oriented guy, and also on a max deal. 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

People like to play around with the ESPN NBA Trade Machine to build a roster.  So let me play around with fivethirtyeight's Roster Shuffling Machine.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-trades-2022/

 

This thing is pretty neat because you can not only trade players, you can adjust their role on the team and see how that impacts a team's overall record.  They have some sliders you can adjust, to see what impact it will have on the team.

So how are the Hawks projected to look if I activated the injuries slider?

• 46 - 36 overall record
• 74% chance to make the playoffs
• 2% chance to win the championship

 

But the topic is how would the Hawks look under Ben Simmons? 

Scenario #1 . . . Capela is traded for Simmons, and we keep all of our wings:

• 45 - 37 overall record
• 67% chance to make playoffs
• 1% chance to win the championship

 

Scenario #2 . . . Collins is traded for Simmons, and we keep all of our wings:

• 45 - 37 overall record
• 71% chance to make the playoffs
• 1% chance to win the championship

Interesting that trading Simmons for a big, actually reduces our chances slightly.  So let's go a different route,

 

Scenario #3 . . . Hunter and Huerter is traded for Simmons

• 47 - 35 overall record
• 85% chance to make the playoffs
• 5% chance to win the championship

 

Scenario #4 . . . Hunter and Reddish is traded for Simmons

• 48 - 34 overall record
• 85% chance to make the playoffs
• 5% chance to win the championship

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I think the problem with our fan base, is that we believe want to believe so bad that our wings will pan out.  But right now, they're the actual weakness of our team because:

• they can't stay healthy
• their shooting comes and goes
• their defense slightly below average as a group
• and they don't make their teammates better via playmaking

 

That's why even RAPTOR says that the Hawks are slightly better off with a non-shooting, highly defensive rated player like Simmons, than 2 of our rotation wings put together.  Simmons is elite at passing and defending, good at rebounding, but very poor at shooting all around.  There is nothing our wings can do, that is elite. 

Position wise, here is the strength of our team as it relates to raw NBA Efficiency ( which is heavily raw numbers stat driven that normally increases with playing time ). Most stat nerds hate this metric because it's not purely analytical.  But it does show who is actually producing out on the floor.

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/teamstats/22/12/diffeff/1-1

• PG -  #5 overall . . . . Trae is the #1 rated PG - ( Wright is #65 - Lou is #71 )
• SG: - #26 overall . . . Bogi is #31 among SGs - ( Huerter is #34 )
• SF -  #18 overall . . . Reddish is #43 among SFs - ( Hunter is #50 )
• PF -  #4 overall . . . . Collins is #5 - ( Gallo is #37 )
• C -   #17 overall . . . Capela is #9

 

Our wings are decent, non-impact players on most nights. Their raw stats show that they ALL should be coming off the bench on a good team, and not starting.  They are role players at best, not impact players.  We keep waiting on one of them to really break out from the pack and develop into this high quality starter.  But so far, that hasn't been the case.  Of our wings, I trust Kevin over all of them, including Bogi.

[Diesel]

7 hours ago, JTB said:

Just to be clear to everyone who may read this thread…im only purposing a Simmons trade if we trade capela (3 team trade) and play Simmons as a point forward or playmaking center if there’s a such thing.

With shooters all around him in the starting lineup. I believe Simmons playing primarily at the 4 or 5 with Trae and Collins will open up his game to the max.

plus I personally believe such a move would give collins the sure nod as the teams second go to scorer.

Simmons would fit in perfectly as our 3 or OG.

One trade would be :  Gallo/Hunter/Cam for Simmons.

A second would be:  Gallo/Bogi/Cam for Simmons/Green

Nobody in Philly would do a Capela trade.   More importantly, we still need his rebounding.  Like him or not, he is an important part of what we do.  JC can't play C and can barely play PF against real PFs.    Simmons does not have to be a PF.   His ball handling ability makes him a great swingman.  We have JC shooting good from three.  We don't need every player to be a three point shooter.   If GS made it with DGreen and Zaza.. I think we'd be alright with Simmons and Capela. 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

16 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Simmons would fit in perfectly as our 3 or OG.

One trade would be :  Gallo/Hunter/Cam for Simmons.

A second would be:  Gallo/Bogi/Cam for Simmons/Green

Nobody in Philly would do a Capela trade.   More importantly, we still need his rebounding.  Like him or not, he is an important part of what we do.  JC can't play C and can barely play PF against real PFs.    Simmons does not have to be a PF.   His ball handling ability makes him a great swingman.  We have JC shooting good from three.  We don't need every player to be a three point shooter.   If GS made it with DGreen and Zaza.. I think we'd be alright with Simmons and Capela. 

 

I don't do this often to a post . . . but I 100% co-sign.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

So I'm still playing with these sliders on that Rotation Player Machine.  I decide to bring the kids up and adjust the minutes of everyone else.

I've traded Huerter, Hunter and Reddish for Simmons.  Here are the minutes ( barring no injuries )

• Trae - 34
• Simmons - 34
• Collins - 32
• Bogi - 29
• Capela - 30

 

• Gallo - 23
• Okongwu - 19
• Sharife - 12
• Jalen - 12
• Spot minutes for Lou, Wright, Dieng, and TLC

 

Hawks record:  50 - 32 . . . . . chance to make the playoffs - 95% . . .  chance to win the championship - 12% ( puts us in top 6 contenders )

[bird_dirt]

Who's gonna play the 4th quarter if you have both Simmons and Capella? Their FTs will push GM over the edge.

[swanlee]

Yes, he is a broken player and we broke him.

Edited December 21, 2021 by swanlee

[AHF]

I have all kinds of trouble picturing this.  Defensively, it is obvious how Simmons would be a huge upgrade for us. 

 

But I see anti-synergies all over the place:

• Trae/Simmons - Simmons refuses to play in a role where he doesn't control the ball and act as the PG.  He has been asked and refused.  People worry about whether Trae can mesh with an off-ball scorer.  How the heck is he going to mesh with Simmons when Simmons demands to be running action? While it would be good to improve Trae's off-ball movement, he is pretty terrible at it right now and he is a better passer than Simmons.  In particular, Simmons would struggle running  the PnR since teams can retreat to the rim against him and he won't shoot the ball to punish them.
• Floor Spacing - This is obvious but you have two guys who can't shoot more than 3 feet from the basket.  That is a problem in this era of the NBA on offense.
• Attacking the Rim - Our two most important actions right now are Collins going to the rim in the PnR and Trae's floater attacking the basket.  It is already a bit of a challenge to deal with Collins and Capela both wanting to rim run but with Collins being better at it and Capela not being able to do much of anything else.  Now you will have 3 players whose best offense is running to the rim while also needing room for Trae to penetrate with his floater.  Since Collins is an effective 3pt shooter that suggests planting him out there but that seems to be underutilizing him if we turn him into a floor spacing big who plays a catch and shoot game on the perimeter.  Neither Simmons nor Capela can be effective in space other than near the basket but neither is as good there as Collins.  And there sure as ---- isn't room for all three of them.
• Inconsistent wing offense.  This does nothing to address this.  The same inconsistencies we have there now will still be there but it will be exacerbated given the negative impact on floor spacing.

Just seems hard to rationalize this one.  Beyond fit issues, I worry about Simmons' ego and mental issues.  A Nick Anderson situation with his FT shooting looms over him after the last playoff run for Philly and his failure to report this season raises questions about whether he will ever be the same player he was at his best previously or if he will be fighting himself at times.  None of my concerns really revolve around the upside of our wings (i.e., I would not want to pass on Simmons because Cam or Hunter might become a star).

Just all kinds of questions for a guy who will be earning $34M next season.

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

I think the problem with our fan base, is that we believe want to believe so bad that our wings will pan out.  But right now, they're the actual weakness of our team because:

• they can't stay healthy
• their shooting comes and goes
• their defense slightly below average as a group
• and they don't make their teammates better via playmaking

 

That's why even RAPTOR says that the Hawks are slightly better off with a non-shooting, highly defensive rated player like Simmons, than 2 of our rotation wings put together.  Simmons is elite at passing and defending, good at rebounding, but very poor at shooting all around.  There is nothing our wings can do, that is elite. 

Position wise, here is the strength of our team as it relates to raw NBA Efficiency ( which is heavily raw numbers stat driven that normally increases with playing time ). Most stat nerds hate this metric because it's not purely analytical.  But it does show who is actually producing out on the floor.

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/teamstats/22/12/diffeff/1-1

• PG -  #5 overall . . . . Trae is the #1 rated PG - ( Wright is #65 - Lou is #71 )
• SG: - #26 overall . . . Bogi is #31 among SGs - ( Huerter is #34 )
• SF -  #18 overall . . . Reddish is #43 among SFs - ( Hunter is #50 )
• PF -  #4 overall . . . . Collins is #5 - ( Gallo is #37 )
• C -   #17 overall . . . Capela is #9

 

Our wings are decent, non-impact players on most nights. Their raw stats show that they ALL should be coming off the bench on a good team, and not starting.  They are role players at best, not impact players.  We keep waiting on one of them to really break out from the pack and develop into this high quality starter.  But so far, that hasn't been the case.  Of our wings, I trust Kevin over all of them, including Bogi.

100%.  The Trae is the problem crowd has got this all wrong.  Guys are literally saying stuff like we should wait and let wings develop because they might turn into James Harden.  I've also seen people say we should turn down a deal for Jaylen Brown because our guys will probably end up being better.

Our biggest weakness is at the wing, and we're supposed to wait a few years vs addressing the problem?  The belief in our wings is delusional.  John Collins outed Cam in the nicest way possible.  A guy who constantly doubts himself is not going to turn into a top 15 wing in the NBA.  We're not gonna win trotting out backup level wings. 

Very few people are seeing this and it's completely obvious.

[Final_quest]

Simmons would require a 3rd team to take our package.  Morey is not the kind of guy to accept Gallo and Hunter.  He doesn't trade two quarters for a dollar.  He thinks GMs who do that are idiots.