Would a Ben Simmons trade be crazy?

[macdaddy]

I don't think Simmons should be our second highest paid player.   I think he's a very good player but that doesn't mean he isn't overrated and overpaid.   He could get better and that's intriguing but I'm not down for that gamble unless we get a great deal.  

There are very few players in this league that can't shoot that are #2 or #3 guys on winning teams.   Gobert and Draymond are about all i can come up with.   And Draymond shoots 1000 times better than Simmons. 

I'm not against Simmons but i'd rather us spend the money elsewhere.   

[JeffS17]

Not to pile on here but defense is the only thing we need to solve for, and while Simmons is obviously a +defender, having Collins at center is just disastrous.  Collins doesn't have the size to defend true centers and he's not particularly good at it.  Rebounding becomes a massive issue as well.  We will likely have to play either Philly or Milwaukee in the playoffs and Collins at C will get absolutely eaten alive by those teams.  Any scenario where we trade for Simmons needs to be discussing OO as stepping up to a starter role and no one knows if he's capable of that yet (even though me and others are very high on him)

[macdaddy]

1 minute ago, JeffS17 said:

Not to pile on here but defense is the only thing we need to solve for, and while Simmons is obviously a +defender, having Collins at center is just disastrous.  Collins doesn't have the size to defend true centers and he's not particularly good at it.  Rebounding becomes a massive issue as well.  We will likely have to play either Philly or Milwaukee in the playoffs and Collins at C will get absolutely eaten alive by those teams.  Any scenario where we trade for Simmons needs to be discussing OO as stepping up to a starter role and no one knows if he's capable of that yet (even though me and others are very high on him)

that's a great point.   And a lineup of Trae/Cam/Simmons/JC/OO sounds pretty intriguing for the future but there is really only one go to scorer in that lineup.   The D would be pretty great though i would think.

[bleachkit]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I have all kinds of trouble picturing this.  Defensively, it is obvious how Simmons would be a huge upgrade for us. 

 

But I see anti-synergies all over the place:

• Trae/Simmons - Simmons refuses to play in a role where he doesn't control the ball and act as the PG.  He has been asked and refused.  People worry about whether Trae can mesh with an off-ball scorer.  How the heck is he going to mesh with Simmons when Simmons demands to be running action? While it would be good to improve Trae's off-ball movement, he is pretty terrible at it right now and he is a better passer than Simmons.  In particular, Simmons would struggle running  the PnR since teams can retreat to the rim against him and he won't shoot the ball to punish them.
• Floor Spacing - This is obvious but you have two guys who can't shoot more than 3 feet from the basket.  That is a problem in this era of the NBA on offense.
• Attacking the Rim - Our two most important actions right now are Collins going to the rim in the PnR and Trae's floater attacking the basket.  It is already a bit of a challenge to deal with Collins and Capela both wanting to rim run but with Collins being better at it and Capela not being able to do much of anything else.  Now you will have 3 players whose best offense is running to the rim while also needing room for Trae to penetrate with his floater.  Since Collins is an effective 3pt shooter that suggests planting him out there but that seems to be underutilizing him if we turn him into a floor spacing big who plays a catch and shoot game on the perimeter.  Neither Simmons nor Capela can be effective in space other than near the basket but neither is as good there as Collins.  And there sure as ---- isn't room for all three of them.
• Inconsistent wing offense.  This does nothing to address this.  The same inconsistencies we have there now will still be there but it will be exacerbated given the negative impact on floor spacing.

Just seems hard to rationalize this one.  Beyond fit issues, I worry about Simmons' ego and mental issues.  A Nick Anderson situation with his FT shooting looms over him after the last playoff run for Philly and his failure to report this season raises questions about whether he will ever be the same player he was at his best previously or if he will be fighting himself at times.  None of my concerns really revolve around the upside of our wings (i.e., I would not want to pass on Simmons because Cam or Hunter might become a star).

Just all kinds of questions for a guy who will be earning $34M next season.

Excellent synopsis of the risks involved. If there's a player Schlenk is going to bet his career on, it probably  isn't Ben Simmons. Also, we have a similar type player, though young and undeveloped, in Jalen Johnson. 

[JeffS17]

3 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

that's a great point.   And a lineup of Trae/Cam/Simmons/JC/OO sounds pretty intriguing for the future but there is really only one go to scorer in that lineup.   The D would be pretty great though i would think.

And another point to emphasize that @AHF made is that Simmons will have to develop a very good off-ball game if he wants to play with Trae.  Trae would also need to learn to play effectively off-ball.  Neither of them can really do that well at all right now so you're banking on a lot of development in areas that are unproven if we trade for Simmons

[marco102]

4 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Excellent synopsis of the risks involved. If there's a player Schlenk is going to bet his career on, it probably  isn't Ben Simmons. Also, we have a similar type player, though young and undeveloped, in Jalen Johnson. 

Yeah, but Jalen will shoot! 

[marco102]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

 John Collins outed Cam in the nicest way possible.  A guy who constantly doubts himself is not going to turn into a top 15 wing in the NBA.  

What are you referring to here?  John's quote about Cam being mad at himself for no reason? 

[macdaddy]

27 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

And another point to emphasize that @AHF made is that Simmons will have to develop a very good off-ball game if he wants to play with Trae.  Trae would also need to learn to play effectively off-ball.  Neither of them can really do that well at all right now so you're banking on a lot of development in areas that are unproven if we trade for Simmons

Well count me as someone who isn't that interested in Trae playing off the ball a lot.   I'd certainly like him to be able to do it well but for the most part we will be a lot better with the ball in his hands.   

[Final_quest]

18 minutes ago, marco102 said:

What are you referring to here?  John's quote about Cam being mad at himself for no reason? 

Exactly.  A player who is constantly talking poorly about himself does not have the mentality to become a top 75 player in the league.  Understand if everyone disagrees with me, but I believe Cam’s issues are significantly deeper than average self doubt.  He has a psyche problem that plagues him.  Anyone can change, but I think the odds are he is too fixated on negative self talk.    
Flame away and believe what you want.  

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

100%.  The Trae is the problem crowd has got this all wrong.  Guys are literally saying stuff like we should wait and let wings develop because they might turn into James Harden.  I've also seen people say we should turn down a deal for Jaylen Brown because our guys will probably end up being better.

Our biggest weakness is at the wing, and we're supposed to wait a few years vs addressing the problem?  The belief in our wings is delusional.  John Collins outed Cam in the nicest way possible.  A guy who constantly doubts himself is not going to turn into a top 15 wing in the NBA.  We're not gonna win trotting out backup level wings. 

Very few people are seeing this and it's completely obvious.

Problem is that Simmons isn't a wing on offense.  He is versatile enough to defend forwards or wings on defense but he is either basically a PG (handling the ball on the perimeter) or a center (working for shots at the rim).  I don't see this as addressing the issue with our wings.  It leaves us with the same wing issues we started with on offense and since you can't play Simmons on the perimeter unless he has the ball in his hands it means you are going to playing those same wings anyway so it probably forces Simmons to defend a big.

[marco102]

4 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Exactly.  A player who is constantly talking poorly about himself does not have the mentality to become a top 75 player in the league.  Understand if everyone disagrees with me, but I believe Cam’s issues are significantly deeper than average self doubt.  He has a psyche problem that plagues him.  Anyone can change, but I think the odds are he is too fixated on negative self talk.    
Flame away and believe what you want.  

Not going to flame away, but to say John Collins outted Cam is a weird way to put that.  Everyone knows Cam has some mental issues which this season, rather you want to admit it or not, he's seemed to have improved. 

He looks confident even after his misses which he didn't used to do. 

I'm happy to see some improvement and the quote John from John was after Cam made a shot and a steal I believe. He was upset about a blown defensive assignment I believe.

Edited December 21, 2021 by marco102

[Final_quest]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Problem is that Simmons isn't a wing on offense.  He is versatile enough to defend forwards or wings on defense but he is either basically a PG (handling the ball on the perimeter) or a center (working for shots at the rim).  I don't see this as addressing the issue with our wings.  It leaves us with the same wing issues we started with on offense and since you can't play Simmons on the perimeter unless he has the ball in his hands it means you are going to playing those same wings anyway so it probably forces Simmons to defend a big.

For sure.  My post wasn’t really meant to advocate for Simmons.  Mainly agreement that wings are our greatest weakness.

[Final_quest]

6 minutes ago, marco102 said:

Not going to flame away, but to say John Collins outted Cam is a weird way to put that.  Everyone knows Cam has some mental issues which this season, rather you want to admit it or not, he's seemed to have improved. 

He looks confident either after his misses which he didn't used to do. 

I'm happy to see some improvement and the quote John was referring to was after Cam made a shot and a steal I believe. He was upset about a blown defensive assignment I believe.

What Collins said speaks volumes in my mind.  Essentially a snap shot into Cam’s thinking.  He wasn’t calling Cam out and was trying to be nice, but it was telling.  Essentially it means Cam is constantly focusing on what he does wrong.  

[marco102]

1 minute ago, Final_quest said:

What Collins said speaks volumes in my mind.  Essentially a snap shot into Cam’s thinking.  He wasn’t calling Cam out and was trying to be nice, but it was telling.  Essentially it means Cam is constantly focusing on what he does wrong.  

You're entitled to your interpretation and agenda.

[Final_quest]

19 minutes ago, marco102 said:

You're entitled to your interpretation and agenda.

We need better wings.  A young guy with major self confidence issues is not the answer.  That’s what I really think.  

[marco102]

5 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

We need better wings.  A young guy with major self confidence issues is not the answer.  That’s what I really think.  

I'm aware.

[Gray Mule]

Whereas our starting center can't be traded until the season's end, it's useless speculation to set us up as a team without him.  If he becomes injured, he's still a Hawk and we play without him.  Otherwise he's here for the remainder of this season.

Gorgui Dieng, agent 0017, Danilo Gallinari and John Collins have all put in a little time at center to spell our starter.  If Ben Simmons refuses to play anything except PG, why would anyone believe he would do it anywhere else?  

[TheNorthCydeRises]

3 hours ago, bird_dirt said:

Who's gonna play the 4th quarter if you have both Simmons and Capella? Their FTs will push GM over the edge.

 

The question you should be asking is . . . how many points will the opponent score, if we have a frontline of Simmons - Collins - and Capela?

The great thing about the "Hack-a-whomever", is that strategy maybe works like 10% of the time.  But coaches really don't think things through.

If you foul Capela or Ben, and they make 1 - 2 FTs, that's still a point that you got on the possession.  Even if they go 0 - 2 FT, your defense is more than likely set, and you can defend on the other end and prevent them from scoring.

Take this scenario of 5 possessions for each team.  How do the Hawks fare?

Scenario:  Hawks up by 5 . . 5 min to go in the game:

• Capela fouled . . . makes 1 - 2 FTS . . . . Hawks up by 6
• Opposing team miss FG
• Capela fouled . . . makes 0 - 2 FTs
• Opposing team makes 3 pt FG . . . . . . . Hawks up by 3
• Simmons fouled . . . makes 1 - 2 FTs . .. Hawks up by 4
• Opposing team miss FG
• Simmons fouled . . . makes 0 - 2 FTs
• Opposing team misses 3 pt FG
• Simmons fouled . . . . makes 1 - 2 FT . .  Hawks up by 5
• Opposing team makes FG . . . . . . . . . . .  Hawks up by 3
• 2 minute mark . . NO MORE INTENTIONAL FOULING ALLOWED

 

So in this 5 possession scenario, the Hawks only make 3 of 10 FTs for 3 . . . but they held the opponent to 2 - 5 FG for 5 points.

Hawks only lose 2 points in the 3 minute span in which the intentional fouls were committed, and still have a 3 point lead.

If you have good defense, the "hack-a" strategy is null and void.

[JayBirdHawk]

2 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

The question you should be asking is . . . how many points will the opponent score, if we have a frontline of Simmons - Collins - and Capela?

The great thing about the "Hack-a-whomever", is that strategy maybe works like 10% of the time.  But coaches really don't think things through.

 

Can't foul them if they're on the bench though. 

[macdaddy]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Can't foul them if they're on the bench though. 

exactly.

30 million on the bench in crunch time