Would a Ben Simmons trade be crazy?

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Can't foul them if they're on the bench though. 

 

But we'll potentially give up only 5 points, instead of 10 points.

That's why I hate it when Nate pulls Capela and puts in Gallo . . and we go to the Collins - Gallo - Huerter/Cam/Bogi frontline, with Trae and Kevin.   That team might be the best scoring 5, but they may be the worst defensive 5 as well. 

I don't want our best defenders on the bench, if we're trying to hold onto the lead. 

[macdaddy]

16 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

But we'll potentially give up only 5 points, instead of 10 points.

That's why I hate it when Nate pulls Capela and puts in Gallo . . and we go to the Collins - Gallo - Huerter/Cam/Bogi frontline, with Trae and Kevin.   That team might be the best scoring 5, but they may be the worst defensive 5 as well. 

I don't want our best defenders on the bench, if we're trying to hold onto the lead. 

It's about free throws and offense but it's also about switches late in the game right?   Most teams if they are behind aren't playing a guy that can be well defended by Clint.   They're playing scorers.  

Against the Rockets Capela played 8 minutes of the fourth and managed to only pull down 2 rebounds while they just rained buckets down on us.   I"m often happy to see him sitting late in games.  

[AHF]

On 12/21/2021 at 1:35 PM, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

The question you should be asking is . . . how many points will the opponent score, if we have a frontline of Simmons - Collins - and Capela?

The great thing about the "Hack-a-whomever", is that strategy maybe works like 10% of the time.  But coaches really don't think things through.

If you foul Capela or Ben, and they make 1 - 2 FTs, that's still a point that you got on the possession.  Even if they go 0 - 2 FT, your defense is more than likely set, and you can defend on the other end and prevent them from scoring.

Take this scenario of 5 possessions for each team.  How do the Hawks fare?

Scenario:  Hawks up by 5 . . 5 min to go in the game:

• Capela fouled . . . makes 1 - 2 FTS . . . . Hawks up by 6
• Opposing team miss FG
• Capela fouled . . . makes 0 - 2 FTs
• Opposing team makes 3 pt FG . . . . . . . Hawks up by 3
• Simmons fouled . . . makes 1 - 2 FTs . .. Hawks up by 4
• Opposing team miss FG
• Simmons fouled . . . makes 0 - 2 FTs
• Opposing team misses 3 pt FG
• Simmons fouled . . . . makes 1 - 2 FT . .  Hawks up by 5
• Opposing team makes FG . . . . . . . . . . .  Hawks up by 3
• 2 minute mark . . NO MORE INTENTIONAL FOULING ALLOWED

 

So in this 5 possession scenario, the Hawks only make 3 of 10 FTs for 3 . . . but they held the opponent to 2 - 5 FG for 5 points.

Hawks only lose 2 points in the 3 minute span in which the intentional fouls were committed, and still have a 3 point lead.

If you have good defense, the "hack-a" strategy is null and void.

Have to point out that any team that can hold the opponent to 0 FT and a 20% FG% is going to win every game.  That defense, however, isn't sustainable even for the best teams.  On an anecdotal basis, any defense can achieve it but 20% FG% is assuming something well outside the norm on a larger sample size.  I guess that is another way of saying I don't think you can count on a Capela/Simmons defense being this good.  Embiid and Simmons sure weren't and I think Embiid is a better defender than Capela.

[thecampster]

On 12/21/2021 at 7:15 AM, TheNorthCydeRises said:

People like to play around with the ESPN NBA Trade Machine to build a roster.  So let me play around with fivethirtyeight's Roster Shuffling Machine.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-trades-2022/

 

This thing is pretty neat because you can not only trade players, you can adjust their role on the team and see how that impacts a team's overall record.  They have some sliders you can adjust, to see what impact it will have on the team.

So how are the Hawks projected to look if I activated the injuries slider?

• 46 - 36 overall record
• 74% chance to make the playoffs
• 2% chance to win the championship

 

But the topic is how would the Hawks look under Ben Simmons? 

Scenario #1 . . . Capela is traded for Simmons, and we keep all of our wings:

• 45 - 37 overall record
• 67% chance to make playoffs
• 1% chance to win the championship

 

Scenario #2 . . . Collins is traded for Simmons, and we keep all of our wings:

• 45 - 37 overall record
• 71% chance to make the playoffs
• 1% chance to win the championship

Interesting that trading Simmons for a big, actually reduces our chances slightly.  So let's go a different route,

 

Scenario #3 . . . Hunter and Huerter is traded for Simmons

• 47 - 35 overall record
• 85% chance to make the playoffs
• 5% chance to win the championship

 

Scenario #4 . . . Hunter and Reddish is traded for Simmons

• 48 - 34 overall record
• 85% chance to make the playoffs
• 5% chance to win the championship

 

Try Gallinari, Bogi + 2 protected future 1sts for Simmons in a 3 team trade. It works. Have Simmons playing 16 minutes a game at the 1, 16 minutes a game at the 3/4/ (depending on need/lineup.

Your lineup looks like this.

Trae/Simmons/Shariffe or Wright.

Huerter/Reddish (start either)

Simmons/Hunter (yah, I said it).

Collins/JJ/Simmons

Capela/OO or Dieng.

 

In every scenario you have 2 to 3 - 3point shooters on the floor at all times, 3 core defensive players on the floor at all times. Start Simmons for 6 minutes. Start the 2nd quarter with him when Trae sits. to the bench with 2-3 minutes left in the 2nd/4th quarters depending on scenario.

Imagine a unit where Simmons, Reddish, Hunter, JJ, OO are all on the floor at the same time. That's the longest armed/pass deflecting lineup you could possibly see.

Figure those wins out!!!

[macdaddy]

21 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Try Gallinari, Bogi + 2 protected future 1sts for Simmons in a 3 team trade. It works. Have Simmons playing 16 minutes a game at the 1, 16 minutes a game at the 3/4/ (depending on need/lineup.

Your lineup looks like this.

Trae/Simmons/Shariffe or Wright.

Huerter/Reddish (start either)

Simmons/Hunter (yah, I said it).

Collins/JJ/Simmons

Capela/OO or Dieng.

 

In every scenario you have 2 to 3 - 3point shooters on the floor at all times, 3 core defensive players on the floor at all times. Start Simmons for 6 minutes. Start the 2nd quarter with him when Trae sits. to the bench with 2-3 minutes left in the 2nd/4th quarters depending on scenario.

Imagine a unit where Simmons, Reddish, Hunter, JJ, OO are all on the floor at the same time. That's the longest armed/pass deflecting lineup you could possibly see.

Figure those wins out!!!

Elite teams have great shooting.   I don't think we have enough if we replace Bogi and Gallo with Simmons.  Unless Kev, Cam and Hunter become a lot more consistent.