2023-24 Salary Cap Discussion Thread

[JayBirdHawk]

2023-2024

Salary Cap $134 million

Luxury Tax $162 million

 

Max Salaries for 2023'24:

25% - $33.5 mil

30% - $40.2 mil

35% - $46.9 mil

[JayBirdHawk]

On 11/9/2022 at 10:40 PM, sturt said:

  

This got me thinking.... needed to take a deeper dive into what these "unlikely" incentives are for Capela and DJM... and, are they really unlikely, or just sorta maybe kinda unlikely.

Here's what I found, and my own estimates of likelihood for each:

CLINT CAPELA

- $1M for the team making the conference finals + him playing 2000 minutes

This is Clint's 8th legit season (technically 9th, but his first season he barely played)... and he's topped 2000 minutes three times, but in only one of those three (2017-18 HOU) did he also go to a conference finals.

10% Likely

 

- $500K for achieving minimum of 30% DRB + him playing 2000 minutes

Of those 8 legit seasons, Clint's actually achieved that benchmark 4x... and two of those times (2017-18 HOU and 2021-22 ATL) he logged 2000 minutes. Through the first 10 games, he's at almost a 27% pace.

25% Likely

 

- $500K for achieving a minimum of 65% at the free throw line

Clint has never finished a year with anything higher than 63%. His career average is 53%, and so far in 2022-23, he's doing a little better than that, 56%.

5% Likely

 

DEJOUNTE MURRAY

- $500K for hitting 125 3-point shots

Dejounte has never finished a year having made more than 96 from the arc (ie, last season). However, through just 10 games, he's made 23, so it would seem he's preparing to blow through that target. That's a pace that puts him close to 190 for the season.

90% Likely

 

- $500K for finishing the season at or above 58% in true shooting %

This one's tougher, as his high mark was the 53% he earned last year. He's near 54% for this season so far, and that's representative of good shooting from the arc and exceptional shooting from the FT line.

10% Likely

 

- $500K for making the league's first or second All-Defensive Team

DJM's made that team once (2017-18 SAS), and I'm inclined to think he'll get even greater attention beside Trae for whatever defensive numbers he posts. And he is posting some numbers that will support that pursuit. Still, what will the competition be like? Hard to say.

50% Likely

 

So, if my guesses are in the ballpark, the end analysis suggests Schlenk should budget for $500,000 in incentive payments, and be prepared to pay out as much as $1,000,000... all for DJM. However, there's a not-good-but-reasonable chance that Clint could earn as much as $1,500,000 above that $1,000,000 for DJM.

DJ has currently made 85 3s - which seems the most likely of all these incentives. He may still sneak in all defense.

Clint is at 62.5% freethrow

[sturt]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Clint is at 62.5% freethrow

Thrills me to think he's got a shot at that one, and I'm sure I'm not alone.

Looks like he's have to average about 30 minutes per game at this point to conquer the 2000 minute line.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

Thrills me to think he's got a shot at that one, and I'm sure I'm not alone.

Looks like he's have to average about 30 minutes per game at this point to conquer the 2000 minute line.

Yeah, that isn’t happening.  I think we can safely rule all the incentives with a 2000 minute condition as being out of the money.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

wow.

[sturt]

5 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

wow.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

On 1/22/2023 at 8:55 AM, JayBirdHawk said:

DJ has currently made 85 3s - which seems the most likely of all these incentives. He may still sneak in all defense.

Clint is at 62.5% freethrow

 

DJ on track to get his $500k bonus for hitting 125 made threes. He is currently as 110.

Clint at 61.3% freethrow.

Haven't checked, but CC might hit this incentive.

He makes an extra $500,000 for finishing with a 30 percent defensive rebounding rate

 

[JayBirdHawk]

On 2/17/2023 at 1:22 PM, JayBirdHawk said:

 

DJ on track to get his $500k bonus for hitting 125 made threes. He is currently as 110.

 

With 5 made 3 tonight and a total of 122, DJ is 3 3ptrs away from 125 made 3s and his 500K bonus. 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[sturt]

Clint's making a great assualt on the Koncak line.... his .592 is within striking distance of Koncak's career .599 FT%.

He's not getting to 65%, tho, near certainty of that.

So that aside, the only other thread to the luxury tax line is DJ getting named to the all-defense 1st or 2nd team. Not seeing that. If anything, last season's Gs may all repeat.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Clint is close to his 30% rebounding rate incentive with 29.2%, however he's short of the 2000 minute threshold, he currently at 1624 minutes 

LTBE $500,000 (30% defensive rebound rate + 2k min)

He's  currently at 60% from the freethrow line, needs 65% to meet his 500k incentive. At a minimum, He'll need to take at least 17 freethrows over the next 5 games and make all of them to get to 65%.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Mid-Level Exception

Year	Standard MLE	Taxpayer MLE	Room MLE
2023/24	$11,368,000	$7,021,000	$5,853,000
2024/25	$11,936,400	$7,372,050	$6,145,650
2025/26	$12,504,800	$7,723,100	–
2026/27	$13,073,200	–	–
Total	$48,882,400	$22,116,150	$11,998,650

The standard mid-level exception is available to over-the-cap teams that haven’t dipped below the cap to use room and don’t go over the tax apron. It can run for up to four years, with 5% annual raises. Once a team uses the standard/non-taxpayer MLE, that team is hard-capped at the tax apron for the rest of the league year. 

The taxpayer mid-level exception is for in-the-tax teams, or teams that want the flexibility to surpass the tax apron later. It can run for up to three years, with 5% annual raises.

The room exception is for teams that go under the cap and use their space. Once they’ve used all their cap room, they can use this version of the mid-level exception, which runs for up to two years with 5% annual raises.

[JayBirdHawk]

Current Rostered Salary:

Total $170.9 million ($162.9 million*) *Fernando, Mathews, Krejci and Martin are unguaranteed.

#15 pick will be about $4 million.

Salary cap $134 million

Luxury Tax $162 million

First Tax Apron - $169 million 

Second Tax Apron - $179.5 million

[JayBirdHawk]

With the playoffs viewership as high as they are, I would surmise that the salary cap and corresponding LT below may jump another 2 million from earlier projections. We will know the end of June.

 

 

[sturt]

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2023/4/10/23675198/projecting-the-2023-24-nba-salary-cap-dallas-mavericks

[bird_dirt]

Unofficial new CBA rules are going to hit teams that are over the tax threshold pretty hard. It makes me wonder if this is something Tony knew was coming and why he was adamant about staying below the tax line.

In short, teams in the tax are extremely limited in what they will be able to do, and even their draft picks can be affected.

Here are some of the reported, albeit unofficial, changes via 

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/04/running-list-of-changes-in-nbas-new-collective-bargaining-agreement.html

 

Second tax apron

The NBA’s current “tax apron” is set a few million dollars above the luxury tax line. For instance, in 2022/23, the tax line is $150,267,000 and the tax apron is $156,983,000. Teams above the tax apron aren’t permitted to acquire players via sign-and-trade, use more than the taxpayer portion of the mid-level exception, or use the bi-annual exception.

In the new CBA, the NBA will implement a second tax apron that will be $17.5MM above the tax line. Teams above that second apron will face a new set of restrictions, as follows:

• They won’t have access to the taxpayer mid-level exception.
• They won’t be able to trade away their first-round pick that’s seven years away, beginning in 2024/25. If the team remains above the second apron in two of the next four seasons, that draft pick that was frozen for trade purposes will fall to the end of the first round (I also heard the team that ends the year with the highest payroll automatically gets the last pick of the draft regardless of how they finished the year, but IDK if that’s legit). If they stay under the second apron for three of the next four seasons, the pick would become unfrozen.
• They won’t be permitted to send out cash in trades.
• They won’t be able to aggregate salary for matching purposes in trades. So no trading JC + Hunter for “Player X.”
• Teams above either tax apron won’t be permitted to sign “buyout” players. 
• Teams above either tax apron also won’t be able to take back more salary than they send out in any trade and will be limited to a lesser form of the taxpayer mid-level exception. That new MLE will be worth $5MM and can’t be used for deals exceeding two years.
• During the 2023/24 league year, teams above either tax apron will only be permitted to take back up to 110% of their outgoing salary in a trade, rather than 125%.
• Starting in the 2024 offseason, teams above either tax apron will only be permitted to take back up to 100% of their outgoing salary in a trade. So no bundling players, and you can only take back equal or lesser salary. Have fun figuring out good trades that aren’t just salary dumps. 
• There will be a limit on how many minimum-salary players can be aggregated for salary-matching purposes during offseason trades.

The second tax apron is expected to be phased in over the next two seasons.

Players will be able to be paid more than ever, but I think teams will be less inclined to hand out huge contracts so freely given how limiting high payrolls will make team movements. Rookie contracts and value contracts will be gold. I wonder if the Hawks are kicking themselves for trading away so many second rounders now  

I’d love to hear from some of our cap experts. I know we are projected to be well over the threshold next year. What’s our outlook look like given these new potential changes? 

[JayBirdHawk]

Pinned at the top of the board.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Second Apron Rules:

 

 

[Spud2nique]

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Second Apron Rules:

 

 

Thought there’s only one apron due to one cook in the kitchen! 

[sturt]

Big news, relatively speaking.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/06/nba-increases-salary-cap-projection-for-2023-24.html

3m increase for tax line.