I hope you offensive junkies are watching the playoffs closely this year!

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

By the way, I do appreciate your historical review but just like the title of this thread states...I was only referring to this year's playoffs.

I don't find a single game or single year, etc. to be of much value compared to a larger data set.  The smaller the sample size the more margin for randomness and error if you are trying to extrapolate useful patterns and conclusions.  That is why I did the last 10 years.  Thought it would bring more value to the discussion and smooth out for injuries and other random things that can skew results in a smaller sample.

[Peoriabird]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

I don't find a single game or single year, etc. to be of much value compared to a larger data set.  The smaller the sample size the more margin for randomness and error if you are trying to extrapolate useful patterns and conclusions.  That is why I did the last 10 years.  Thought it would bring more value to the discussion and smooth out for injuries and other random things that can skew results in a smaller sample.

So you just decided to change the discussion...lol

[Peoriabird]

18 minutes ago, AHF said:

I don't find a single game or single year, etc. to be of much value compared to a larger data set.  The smaller the sample size the more margin for randomness and error if you are trying to extrapolate useful patterns and conclusions.  That is why I did the last 10 years.  Thought it would bring more value to the discussion and smooth out for injuries and other random things that can skew results in a smaller sample.

Let me ask you something...were there rule changes this year that affected the offense and defense?

[AHF]

9 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

So you just decided to change the discussion...lol

It seemed to me that you were suggesting that there was a strong correlation between defense and playoff success that we should use to inform decisions on how to approach next year's roster.  Correct me if I'm wrong on that front.  I was bringing additional data to add to that discussion in much the same way you might look at Capela's career FT% in assessing whether to expect him to shoot 47% next year.

7 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Let me ask you something...where their rule changes this year that affected the offense and defense?

I don't think so.  Last significant rule changes that fundamentally affected balance on offense and defense were the zone defense and hand checking rule changes.  The most significant change for this year was around when refs would call free throws but I don't think that has really moved the needle on the balance between offense and defense for playoff basketball in my estimation.  The more impactful aspect of reffing in the playoffs is the same as when LA faced off against Sacramento...certain stars and teams get favorable calls or no-calls that others don't even when the same thing happens on the floor.  That was in place before this season and remains in place and it can change over time.  Jordan is a good example because he was the victim of this against Detroit (hacks went uncalled) and the benefit of gift free throws and ignored pushing off, etc. later on in his career.  The change to ruling out gimmicky foul baiting hasn't affected the game that much, imo.  Maybe a few less FTs per game this postseason but nothing like the impact of hand checking rules.

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

 The change to ruling out gimmicky foul baiting hasn't affected the game that much, imo.  Maybe a few less FTs per game this postseason

Lol! Never mind

[AHF]

11 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Lol! Never mind

Bucks averaged 20.75 FTA this year in the playoffs and 20.78 FTA per game in last year's playoff run.  Is that supposed to move the needle or meaningfully change the balance of basketball as we know it?

[Hawkmoor]

Defense? 

[JTB]

9 hours ago, AHF said:

NBA Finals Participants

2021 Champion:  Bucks #6 in ORTG; #10 in DRTG; Runner-Up Suns #5 in ORTG; #9 in DRTG

2020 Champion:  Lakers #11 in ORTG; #3 in DRTG; Runner-Up Heat #7 in ORTG; #11 in DRTG

2019 Champion:  Raptors #5 in ORTG; #5 in DRTG; Runner-Up Warriors #1 in ORTG; #13 in DRTG

2018 Champion:  Warriors #3 in ORTG; #11 in DRTG; Runner-Up Cavs #5 in ORTG; #29 in DRTG

2017 Champion:  Warriors #1 in ORTG; #2 in DRTG; Runner-Up Cavs #3 in ORTG; #21 in DRTG

2016 Champion:  Cavs #3 in ORTG; #10 in DRTG; Runner-Up Warriors #1 in ORTG; #5 in DRTG

2015 Champion:  Warriors #2 in ORTG; #1 in DRTG; Runner-Up Cavs #3 in ORTG; #18 in DRTG

2014 Champion:  Spurs #7 in ORTG; #3 in DRTG; Runner-Up Heat #5 in ORTG; #11 in DRTG

2013 Champion:  Heat #2 in ORTG; #9 in DRTG; Runner-Up Spurs #7 in ORTG; #3 in DRTG

2012 Champion:  Heat #8 in ORTG; #4 in DRTG; Runner-Up Thunder #2 in ORTG; #11 in DRTG

 

So among the 20 finals participants over the last 10 years:

The average ranking in ORTG was 4.35

The average ranking in DRTG was 9.45

 

14 of the 20 finished top 5 in ORTG (70%)

8 of the 20 finished top 5 in DRTG (40%)

 

19 of the 20 finished top 10 in ORTG (95%)

12 of the 20 finished top 10 in DRTG (60%)

 

From a pure numbers perspective it seems pretty obvious that exceling at both offense and defense is a characteristic of most of these teams.  Likewise, it seems obvious that there is a stronger correlation between strong offensive performance and making the finals than there is with strong defensive performance (as measured in ORTG/DRTG).

Thanks for sharing this and honestly it goes past 20 years for those who are wondering!

 

ive always said no matter the era offense has always trumped defense…..not that defense isn’t important cause it is but there’s clear data that the stronger offensive teams tend to make deep playoff run even if their defense sits right outside the top 10.

 

“Defense wins championships” is not a saying I would apply toward the NBA.