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The Mega Super Rumor Thread (Part 2)


NBASupes

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11 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

In other words...stop blaming the players for everything! A lot should go into this to make this thing work! There is enough talent now so go into the lab and find a way.

In essence.. yeah.

I hear people talk about JC as if he were trash here.   However, the reason no good trades can be found is because he's not easily replaceable.   This isn't the 90s when you had Karl Malone, Duncan, Barkley, and KG... This is to 2020s and JC is one of the better 4s.  He's not KD but who is??  The issue is that we have all this talent and we have to manage this talent so that it works the best that it can. 

It's not possible for a player to just "develop" a shot at this level.  Hawks fans think it's possible for OO to magically develop a shot over the offseason when all of his life, he's been developed as a 5.   Give me a break.  IF that's the case, I'm waiting for Bogi to develop a crossover move to the basket.  I'm waiting for Hunter to develop rebounding instincts.  It doesn't happen that way. 

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Too many squawkers value offense at all cost over defense and modern NBA teams are positional in terms of grading.

 

Look at Pat Bev. He generally always has a good TS for a PG, he has elite defensive versatility, and he has a tremendous feel for the game and good BBIQ. Yet he's on his 5th team in 5 years and maybe on his 6th team soon. 

Why? Because an elite defender who's defensively versatile but is average at running an offense and lack self creation skills who is also offensively limited is not that valuable as a PG in the modern NBA. Now, this player was perfectly fine in the 90s but in the 2020s, he has value but how much?

JC has clear and obvious value. The thing is, what teams want from a PF, he doesn't do. Like Pat Bev at PG, Myles Turner, Lamar Odom, Josh Smith, Buddy Hield, and others like this is they are luxury players. Players that you want to have for elite depth but if you gotta pay them, they are always the first on the list to go. 

I clearly think JC can win a lot of 6th man of the year awards but as a starter, he has limitations that really hurt his value regardless of what his stans and lovers say.

They have a tendency to look at what he does and says, he's good man, why don't people give him his flowers. People like me say, he is good but he doesn't fit the modern PF at all. That's a defensive position in 2022. Even Minnesota realize that and realized they had to pair KAT with one of the best defensive centers to ever play the game to protect him and KAT is an elite offensive player unlike JC who's just a very good one at best. He's limited to a degree on offense as well.

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A fact of life:  Some people can.  Other people can't.  Quit trying to "get rid of" John.  We've already done that to Red Velvet.  Enough already.  We have a backup already (Jalen) and we don't need another one.  Question - - Is our #1 draft pick a 2 or a 3?  Trading away our veteran shooter (Danilo), I hope he is able to replace him.  Who do you think that is better than John that we can afford?  Me neither.

🧑‍🔧Under repair.

Edited by Gray Mule
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3 hours ago, Final_quest said:

What's tough is JC seems like one of the best personalities on the team, add to that being a true pro that improves his game each year.  Our current rebuild literally started with him, and he was on the all rookie team without Trae.  Unlike our picks from more recent years, he came into the league as an impact player.  

If this posted analysis from RandomFan is wrong, why are no teams offering enough to acquire JC?  There has to be truth to this.  I hate that it rings true, but I would love an answer to my question if anyone disagrees.  I've heard others say we are crazy to trade him, but let's go Windhorst with the question:

People say John Collins is one of the best PFs in the league, yet no one will offer enough for him when we make him available.  Why is that?  

If I had to guess, I'd say it's because of how we value Collins. Teams probably want him on the cheap, but in doing so, we'd substantially upgrade them while getting a marginal return for our own team. 

Conversely, if they give us the value we're seeking... It could be the catalyst that flips this thing into a dynasty. Trae Young is a problem. He carried a decent team to the brink of the finals. He'll be scary with a great team.

I think JC, Young, and Murray are the core of a great team. Especially the attitude those guys have. I'd really like to see them develop together. 

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4 hours ago, Final_quest said:

I really don't intend to pick on you personally, but it's more the substance that I disagree with.

Substance, great. That's why we're here.

(Forgive me, too, that I had it in the back of my mind that you were one of the couple or three taking shots at word count a week or two ago... a kind of ad hominem. Not worth my time to go back and research, and so I take it that I must have attributed that erroneously.)

 

4 hours ago, Final_quest said:

That was not based on a group that had played together for several seasons. 

Um, what??? Well, not "several" by the definition of most, but JC was in his 4th year with the team, Trae and KVon their 3rd, Hunter and Reddish their 2nd.... and that, along with rookie Big2O, was considered the young core who was gaining familiarity and chemistry with every month they continued together. Sure, the young core wasn't enough on its own, but it indisputably was a core. And if I didn't say it that way before, I misspoke. That was the thrust of my thought, and then, when you just stack season upon season, you just exponentially increase the positives of that group's familiarity with each other.

 

4 hours ago, Final_quest said:

most teams who win add to their homegrown talent... Homegrown talent or bust is the wrong model.  

If I may correct you... it's not "most" teams, it's "every" team.

...hehe...

Self-evidently, if a GM relied exclusively on homegrown talent, adding a first and second rounder every year... the simple math says it would take 8 years to have a roster of only homegrown guys.

Your point that a GM must add "outsiders" is well-taken, and irrefutable. The idea that any team implements a "homegrown talent or bust model" is a strawman... that doesn't really exist, and practically speaking, it couldn't.

I'm left to think we're talking past one another.

Let me try to better define the concern.

The distinction is that most GMs essentially have a collection of outsiders, and not enough homegrown talent to constitute a core.

We are on the verge of that right now. If we get down to having Trae, Hunter and Big2O as all that remains, don't think anyone would consider 3 players a "core," and especially not in their present state where the latter two haven't really yet impressed all that much in the big picture.

Once you give up that core, you give up an advantage that only comes through (a) good drafting and (b) patience...

And it is rare that a team can gain that advantage because "a" is rare enough, and "b" is that much more rare.

4 hours ago, Final_quest said:

You can't point to our past success that came from recently acquired veterans as a reason to say the way forward is to stop acquiring proven NBA players. 

This is just further indication that we're talking past each other. Never said what you just suggested I said.

And it's actually a little insulting in a small way that you define my position as-if that extreme, that ignorant.

 

The way forward when the roster has accumulated a .653 track record when not convoluted with Gumbo Hawks rendering a big effect is to keep intact as much as you possibly can keep intact, granted that the core is young and thus naturally prone to continued improvement/development.

We were always going to make some modification this off-season, and probably even if we'd somehow pulled off ATL's first trophy--there was never a realistic way to keep Gallo on the coming season's roster. But that's as much as had to be done.

 

If anyone doubts my attitude in any of this, that person's just not paying attention... I've been saying that much consistently and loudly. And so I applauded the Gallo trade (... in fact, I'm over the moon about it b/c for sooooooooooooooooooooooooooo long here, we were told that it was almost certain that we'd be releasing him and getting nothing out of it.)

 

Beyond that, though, if you're going to make any other trade, you have to have a strong preference for trading someone who isn't part of that young core, unless the offer is just that overwhelming that you have to... that's my opinion.

By almost all assessments I've read, it's understood that what on-court talent we got in return for KVon was something less than his on-court value to our team and our 2022-23 hopes.

It was, by almost all assessments I've read, understood that it was a lux tax motivated deal.

If that's accurate, then I fail to see where the substance is in defending moving him, assuming the goal is to contend.

 

"Well, if you'd moved BogBog, you would have gotten less in return than you got for KVon."

That is what some have told us, and I have no reason to doubt their sincerity, though objectively and without offending, it's not 100% accurate intel every time we get intel. And, as importantly as anything, it's not my money... and my paycheck doesn't depend on those decisions.

 

I'm just another fan with an opinion. And all things being equal, I come back to what I said about "a" and "b" above.

 

 

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1 hour ago, REHawksFan said:

JC is a good player.  At capacity, he's a really good player.  If I'm the GM, I'm not trying to trade JC.  But I'm also not hanging up the phone if someone wants JC.  The issue I see is that the Hawks are only getting 80% or so of JC's capability. Whether it's because of Clint or the way Trae plays or whatever the reason, we aren't getting JC at HIS best.  And that's a problem.  IF that means we can trade JC for a player that "fits" better with the current version of the Hawks and thereby makes the Hawks better, then go for it.  I have no idea if they can do that or not.  

We've seen JC's production decline across the board each of the last 2 seasons (which coincide with Clint coming to the Hawks):

Pts:  21.6 => 17.6 => 16.2

Reb: 10.1 => 7.4 => 7.8

FGA:  14.8 => 12.2 => 11.9

FG%: 58.3% => 55.6% => 52.6%

3pt:  40.1% => 39.9% => 36.4%

2pt:  64.2% => 61.5% => 58.8%

TS%:  65.9% => 64.5% => 61.0%

Blk: 2.0 => 1.7 => 1.7

PER:  23.5 => 20.6 => 18.7

USG:  22.7% => 22.2% => 20.5%

 

It seems fairly obvious (to me anyway) that JC has sacrificed his game for the sake of the team the last two years.  It's either that or he peaked in year 3 in the NBA which seems a lot less plausible.  So if he's sacrificing for the Hawks, the question becomes is 75-80% of JC better than 100% of a better fitting player (again, if such player exists)?  That's the question the Hawks GM has to answer.  This isn't about "getting rid" of JC just for sake of it (don't buy into Peo's nonsense), it's a question of how do the Hawks get better and what is the best fit for the current construction of the Hawks.  I don't think it's an easy formula to figure out.  It's nuanced because you also have to factor in the coaching / scheme / etc..    

This two year sample is misleading. You are comparing a healthy John Collins season to one where he struggled with injuries the entire season.

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14 minutes ago, marco102 said:

Looks like the Hawks should be interested him.

Roby's been on my shopping list for about 6-8 weeks.

Problem now is that he probably has some better opportunity to sign-up with a team that isn't settled at PF as we are (knock on wood). At best, he could hope to earn the 3rd PF slot here, while there could be other teams where he may have a realistic chance to fight for a 2nd PF slot. And he's not a proven talent that you're going to offer him much more than a minimum contract, if at all.

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6 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

He would cost Atlanta the LT. I don't know if he is worth that for Atlanta

Said this a couple of times now.... as long as you're in the ball park this early in the new year... it's not really that big of a deal. The final accounting isn't until the end of the season, and of course, many teams make trades at the February deadline to get themselves in a more favorable position. And too, it's not like we're going to go into the new season with 12 players anyhow... gotta pay for 2-3 more.

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1 hour ago, REHawksFan said:

I mean....  that's simply not true.  JC developed a 3pt shot at this level.  He took none in college and less than 1 per game his first season in the NBA, making 34.0%. Then in Year 2 he's taking 2.6 per game and making 35%. Then in Year 3 he's taking 3.6 per game and making 40.1%.  That's developing your shot over the course of an offseason.  Some players can do it. Some can't.  JC was a 73% FT shooter in college so his stroke was at lease passable to extend his range.  OO was 72% FT shooter in college with a good looking stroke.  Not sure there's any reason to think he can't also extend his range.  

It's for sure not impossible. But I will say it is rare. 

I think Horford is another great example of someone who developed an outside shot. 

As for OO do we even know that he can't shoot? He literally didn't take a single jumpshot last year.

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11 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

This two year sample is misleading. You are comparing a healthy John Collins season to one where he struggled with injuries the entire season.

I disagree.  It's a 3 years comparison and he wasn't hurt for two full years.  He's clearly taken a back seat to Clint in the PNR and the numbers bare that out.  He's no longer a focal point of the offense.  We all talked about it all year...he gets lost in favor of Clint far too often (especially when you consider that JC is far better at finishing than Clint is).   

It is what it is at this point.   

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3 hours ago, Final_quest said:

If this posted analysis from RandomFan is wrong, why are no teams offering enough to acquire JC?  There has to be truth to this.  I hate that it rings true, but I would love an answer to my question if anyone disagrees.  I've heard others say we are crazy to trade him, but let's go Windhorst with the question:

People say John Collins is one of the best PFs in the league, yet no one will offer enough for him when we make him available.  Why is that?  

Because, unlike some of the posters on here, the Hawks organization only wants to trade him in a deal for a clear upgrade to the roster.

That does not imply that he holds no trade value. We are trying to flip him in deals for Star level players. We are not just trying to give him away and nobody will take him. 

Big difference.

All teams want to win trades. It is no secret that the best player in a trade is usually the team that wins the deal. So  we are coming in at a disadvantage as a team with no stars to trade. 

Unfortunately, some people fell in love with the idea of moving JC for a draft pick are mad that Schlenk is too smart to do that.

You guys act like we are having a yard sale and nobody is stopping at his table. No. We made Cam available and took what we could get for him.

We are using JC to try and to date up. We are not being rejected by ugly girls. Ugly girls are still shooting their shot at us for him and WE are saying no. Even cute girls are looking our way but we are not interested in a lateral move. We want an upgrade and so does the other side.

That is not a knock on JC’s value because we refuse to sell low on him like we did Cam and Kev.

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