Filling out the roster

[macdaddy]

Clarkson would honestly be huge for us off the bench but let's talk about the elephant in the room.   

We haven't had tats like that on the Hawks since Deshawn Stevenson.  

[Spud2nique]

27 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Clarkson

Ya I’ve mentioned him a few times in the past. Wanted him for a couple years now. He gets buckets and as we all know and were reminded by the great Bill Russell… rip sir. #goat  

 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

That said.... as I'm sure you know... Clarkson got that 6th man award for good reason... he's some high octane fuel booster offensively.

 

I'm not that impressed to be honest.  High octane fuel isn't a .532% TS%.  That is volume driven scoring - not efficient value add scoring.  He is a very volatile guy.  HIs 2019-20 was great.  His 2021-22 was pretty terrible.  I'm still not sure how he won the 6th man award in 2020-21 because he has had significantly better seasons than that except that of course voters are driven by points per game and that was his high season in PPG.  I'd much rather have Clarkson's 2019-20 season where he was scoring 15.2 ppg at a .574% TS% than his 2020-21 season scoring 18.2 ppg at a .547% TS%.  That is taking 3.6 more shots per game to score 3.2 more points per game.  That isn't a better season, imo.

I want my 6th man scorers like Lou Williams in his prime with seasons scoring at a:

2015-16 .584% TS%

2016-17 .593% TS%

2017-18 .574% TS%

That is high octane.  Clarkson has 2 out of 10 seasons where he has hit a >.550% TS%.  (League average last season was .566% TS%).

Volume scoring is not nearly as useful as efficient volume scoring.

[sturt]

His 21-22, coupled with Ainge being theoretically predisposed to rid their roster of double-digit salaries, is why you might be able to get him for a reasonable price in trade.

But again, I repeat... I don't see the Hawks being the other team in a deal for him. I have to think others can offer something better. And besides, BogBog is going to be that first wing off the bench for us, knock on wood.

That said... offensively, one can find things to not like, but the overall package is stout...

[macdaddy]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I'm not that impressed to be honest.  High octane fuel isn't a .532% TS%.  That is volume driven scoring - not efficient value add scoring.  He is a very volatile guy.  HIs 2019-20 was great.  His 2021-22 was pretty terrible.  I'm still not sure how he won the 6th man award in 2020-21 because he has had significantly better seasons than that except that of course voters are driven by points per game and that was his high season in PPG.  I'd much rather have Clarkson's 2019-20 season where he was scoring 15.2 ppg at a .574% TS% than his 2020-21 season scoring 18.2 ppg at a .547% TS%.  That is taking 3.6 more shots per game to score 3.2 more points per game.  That isn't a better season, imo.

I want my 6th man scorers like Lou Williams in his prime with seasons scoring at a:

2015-16 .584% TS%

2016-17 .593% TS%

2017-18 .574% TS%

That is high octane.  Clarkson has 2 out of 10 seasons where he has hit a >.550% TS%.  (League average last season was .566% TS%).

Volume scoring is not nearly as useful as efficient volume scoring.

is .532 TS% really that bad?  I'm guessing for guards this is pretty middle of the road and was brought way down by shooting 31% from 3.  53% from inside the arc was better than any backcourt player on our team last year.

[AHF]

24 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

is .532 TS% really that bad?  I'm guessing for guards this is pretty middle of the road and was brought way down by shooting 31% from 3.  53% from inside the arc was better than any backcourt player on our team last year.

Compare it to Hawks guards and wings from last year (not counting our small sample G-league talents):

Trae Young .603%

Delon Wright .576%

Kevin Huerter .570%

Bogdan Bogdanovic .562%

TLC .556%

DeAndre Hunter .547%

Cam Reddish .537%

Clarkson .532%

Lou Williams .500%

 

So here is how he stacks up:

WAYY worse than:  Trae, Delon, Bogi and Huerter

Significantly worse than:  TLC & Hunter

A little worse than:  Cam

Way better than:  Lou 

 

You tell me how impressive that number is after examining the competition.  For me, it is pretty ugly for a $13-14M price tag. 

Given the expected roles for Bogi and Clarkson, for example, I think it is a pretty direct comparison that I would rather feed Bogi all day, every day than Clarkson.

Given what I saw from Hunter, I sure don't want to stunt his growth offensively to feed Clarkson who is a shot eating machine when he is on the floor.  (He is like Lou, etc. who are only there to lob the ball towards the basket.)

Given that we are right near the luxury tax line, I sure don't want to open myself to being a repeater in order to add him to the roster to pull shots away from those wings.  Overall between Trae, DM and Bogi, I don't feel like there is a gap where we need a chucker to fill shots at the PG or SG positions.  A guard or big with offensive skills seems like a bigger need for filling out the roster especially if you are going to spend $14M to do it.

[macdaddy]

I"d much rather have a healthy Bogi as our 6th man.   But i hate typing 'healthy Bogi' so much also.  

[JayBirdHawk]

6 hours ago, sturt said:

Right. But. That was before we learned what we just learned, tho.

If the Rockets played hard ball, I'd even be tempted to go as high as 2 FRPs unprotected.

 

Good one.....where's the camera?

[sturt]

Here's the thing that's gnawing on me as we get closer to the season... I get @AHF's inclination that McM has some trust level in JDay.

 

But that doesn't mean Schlields' shouldn't be on the prowl for a better option. They should.

If BogBog's health had been stellar in his two ATL seasons thus far, it's likely not an issue... you roll with JDay, probably, in that case.

 

Since it has been, though, and because time is of the essence now... you've got two years of Murray you can count on... have to be ready to strike, ready to be aggressive if an upgrade opportunity emerges.

 

To be honest, I've not been nearly as enthusiastic about Clarkson as some might have assumed. He makes for a fun highlight reel. But I'm uncertain about the fit for the same reasons I would be uncertain if we were talking about the pros and cons of adding a younger Jamaal Crawford.

 

In case you haven't heard or weren't paying attention, I believed Visilije Micic was precisely the kind of asset you'd want in that role, but that's water under the bridge now.

 

And because there just isn't much of an inventory of options similar to Micic, my attention tilts toward, instead, replacing JDay with a legit SF option that holds the potential to exceed what you can expect from Mo.

Ironically, it's a younger version of Mo that I'm looking for. Not sure there's one out there, but it seems the most reasonable pursuit... KJ Martin could be. His first two years hint at it.

So, yeah, that option holds the most interest at the moment. Who knows what opens up, though, if/when Utah makes their next move.

[Spud2nique]

1 minute ago, sturt said:

Schlields

Schlspud you mean but I digress…  

[Spud2nique]

2 minutes ago, sturt said:

To be honest, I've not been nearly as enthusiastic about Clarkson as some might have assumed.

[sturt]

20 hours ago, AHF said:

Compare it to Hawks guards and wings from last year (not counting our small sample G-league talents):

Trae Young .603%

Delon Wright .576%

Kevin Huerter .570%

Bogdan Bogdanovic .562%

TLC .556%

DeAndre Hunter .547%

Cam Reddish .537%

Clarkson .532%

Lou Williams .500%

 

So here is how he stacks up:

WAYY worse than:  Trae, Delon, Bogi and Huerter

Significantly worse than:  TLC & Hunter

A little worse than:  Cam

Way better than:  Lou 

 

You tell me how impressive that number is after examining the competition.  For me, it is pretty ugly for a $13-14M price tag. 

Given the expected roles for Bogi and Clarkson, for example, I think it is a pretty direct comparison that I would rather feed Bogi all day, every day than Clarkson.

Given what I saw from Hunter, I sure don't want to stunt his growth offensively to feed Clarkson who is a shot eating machine when he is on the floor.  (He is like Lou, etc. who are only there to lob the ball towards the basket.)

Given that we are right near the luxury tax line, I sure don't want to open myself to being a repeater in order to add him to the roster to pull shots away from those wings.  Overall between Trae, DM and Bogi, I don't feel like there is a gap where we need a chucker to fill shots at the PG or SG positions.  A guard or big with offensive skills seems like a bigger need for filling out the roster especially if you are going to spend $14M to do it.

You and Jay are much too focused on the shooting % from my perspective. It's true that it's hard to overemphasize that aspect of a player's game when he's a wing. But... just my opinion... I think you succeed.

[Spud2nique]

3 minutes ago, sturt said:

Mo

Harkless? 

[Spud2nique]

10 minutes ago, sturt said:

Ironically, it's a younger version of Mo that I'm looking for.

I found one!!!! Dorian Finney-Smith.

Same player and exactly 7 days younger than Mo!

Give it up Stu! 

Edited August 27, 2022 by Spud2nique

[sturt]

Might help to point out, for those who give RAPTOR some gravity.... JDay's 21-22 season?... it's not the top-most dot, it's the bottom one.

 

 

Not the trend you want to see in a guy you're intending to give double-digit rotation minutes.

[sturt]

2 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

I found one!!!! Dorian Finney-Smith.

Same player and exactly 7 days younger than Mo!

Give it up Stu! 

I'm honestly impressed.

I mean, by the effort.

Not so much the discernment... not likely to find anyone who believes DFS is someone DAL would consider parting with, and even if they were, not likely to be able to obtain him without creating new holes to have to fill in the rotation.

[JayBirdHawk]

Current Roster heading into Training Camp:

18 Total Player (13 full guarantees, 1 partial)

PG: Young, AHol
SG: Murray, Bogi, Martin*
SF: Hunter, JHol, Griffin
PF: Collins, Johnson, Harkless
C - Capela, Okongwu, Kaminsky

• *2022-23: $450,000 guaranteed, fully guaranteed on 1/10/23

G-2W Players: Chaundee Brown, Trent Forrest
E-10 Players: Tyson Etienne, Chris Silva

[Currently $1.2 million over the Luxury Tax]

[JayBirdHawk]

On 8/23/2022 at 8:39 AM, Gray Mule said:

When the exact date for being over or under the tax comes, this team will make moves.  They will not be just a few dollars over.  They will be over a large amount, or they will be under.  Not that the tax would be a lot if they are just over.  It would not be.  However, they would put themselves in a position of being repeat offenders and they would miss out on the payoff for being under, which is a hefty amount.

Don't lose a pocket full of money when you don't have to!

Following up: we are currently $1.2 million over.

Besides being repeat offenders it also limits what you can do in trades being under vs over the tax. 

For $1.2 million, you'd want to be under considering we'd more than likely be over for the 2023-24 season.

[JayBirdHawk]

On 8/24/2022 at 11:47 AM, sturt said:

Kevin Huerter+2nd Round Pick

for

Jordan Clarkson + 1st Round Pick + ~$2m of cap savings

 

... I don't think you're all that concerned about paying tax regardless. That's a deal you make every day and twice on Sunday.

No you don't. You have not considered Clarkson's $14 million (PO that he would more likely than not picp up) that's due next season that pushes us even further into the tax next season when Hunter's deal licks in. JHol and Mo are both expiring contracts.

[kg01]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

PG: .... AHol

This how we referring to players now?  Mods just gonna let this go?