Filling out the roster

[sturt]

@AHF, here's the thing. If on September 2nd, what Schlields has given up during this off-season is effectively...

 

Kevin Huerter+2nd Round Pick

for

Jordan Clarkson + 1st Round Pick + ~$2m of cap savings

 

... I don't think you're all that concerned about paying tax regardless. That's a deal you make every day and twice on Sunday.

 

And that's coming from someone with a K-Von mancrush. What drives me to that conclusion is that while I prefer K-Von for the long-term, the reality is, we have two years here to score big with this new DM toy. Contending needs to happen immediately. Clarkson is the better option in the short-term.

[AHF]

2 hours ago, sturt said:

@AHF, here's the thing. If on September 2nd, what Schlields has given up during this off-season is effectively...

 

Kevin Huerter+2nd Round Pick

for

Jordan Clarkson + 1st Round Pick + ~$2m of cap savings

 

... I don't think you're all that concerned about paying tax regardless. That's a deal you make every day and twice on Sunday.

 

 

I'm not impressed with Jordan Clarkson.  He shot 41.9% from the field last year and 31.8% from 3.  I'd call Huerter for Clarkson a straight downgrade especially with age in the picture.  Absolutely would not pay the tax for him.  I'd call that bad cap management.

[sturt]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I'm not impressed with Jordan Clarkson.  He shot 41.9% from the field last year and 31.8% from 3.  I'd call Huerter for Clarkson a straight downgrade especially with age in the picture.  Absolutely would not pay the tax for him.  I'd call that bad cap management.

If shooting were the only thing in the equation, couldn't argue with you.

 

Since it's not... indeed, it seldom is the case... I do argue.

 

No matter if you just want to take the previous season (as you cite), or if you're like me and you routinely run the last 3 years of stats to get a firm grasp of what to expect... or if you split that difference (two seasons) as I've done here...

... you pretty much get the same results, and reach the same conclusions... the overall better asset by maybe a half-step has been Clarkson. His age is an asset in the context where the focus is the next 2 years. And importantly, K-Von can be a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency point guard, but Clarkson can effectively take a few PG minutes every night (what would be ADay's 5-7 minutes), in addition to taking what minutes JDay is currently postured to get (what I'm estimating to be 15-17 minutes).

Then, cherry on top... er, on the bottom line as the case may be... if you're able to make a deal for him for a 2nd, when you've obtained a 1st in the SAC deal, "hell yeah."

Encourage you to reconsider before Schlields calls to get your recommendation. (I've already given mine. )

[AHF]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

If shooting were the only thing in the equation, couldn't argue with you.

 

Since it's not... indeed, it seldom is the case... I do argue.

 

No matter if you just want to take the previous season (as you cite), or if you're like me and you routinely run the last 3 years of stats to get a firm grasp of what to expect... or if you split that difference (two seasons) as I've done here...

... you pretty much get the same results, and reach the same conclusions... the overall better asset by maybe a half-step has been Clarkson. His age is an asset in the context where the focus is the next 2 years. And importantly, K-Von can be a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency point guard, but Clarkson can effectively take a few PG minutes every night (what would be ADay's 5-7 minutes), in addition to taking what minutes JDay is currently postured to get (what I'm estimating to be 15-17 minutes).

Then, cherry on top... er, on the bottom line as the case may be... if you're able to make a deal for him for a 2nd, when you've obtained a 1st in the SAC deal, "hell yeah."

Encourage you to reconsider before Schlields calls to get your recommendation. (I've already given mine. )

I would think long and hard about firing my GM if he made me a repeater tax team to get the (at best) marginal upgrade that is Jordan Clarkson over Kevin Huerter.  A .541% TS%, 33% from 3pt range chucker (his numbers over the last two seasons you site above) is not a need that is worth going into the tax.  Huerter shot .556% TS% and 38% 3pt over the same period. 

The one thing Clarkson has going for him for metrics like PER is that he is a chucker as you can see from his headscratchingly high 28.2% usage rate (compared to KVon's 17.3% rate).  While that helps his PER, I don't think it is actually a good thing.  That usage rate puts him on par with guys like Zack LaVine (28.8% usage rate last season and whose TS% over the same period is almost .100% higher) and above guys like Klay Thompson (~25% usage rate for his career).  It is a problem to have a .541% TS% and that kind of usage rate.  Bear in mind Cam Reddish had a .543% TS% last season by way of comparison.  (Being a less efficient scorer than Cam is not a good thing).  

I also think Clarkson's defensive metrics are seriously inflated by playing on an elite defensive team in Utah for what that is worth.

Going into the tax is a really big deal.  He isn't close to worth it, imo.

But don't take my word.  Just watch and you'll see that Clarkson doesn't get added to this team.  Schlenk is too smart for that.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Going into the tax is a really big deal. 

Hawks are currently a tax team, so any trade for OG, Clarkson etc - Hawks have to send out "matching' salary. The 125%+100k rule applies

[sturt]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I would think long and hard

So, let's just get this out of the way.............

 

.... and... to the substance...

A "marginally better" K-Von is fine by me for the reasons already given.

I can't emphasize enough... it's not like this team should be predisposed to saving money in these two years of Murray it is guaranteed to have. It's not likely to get easier. If you can make your rotation appreciably better at little talent cost, it has to happen.

Now.

Remember... at this point, you're not actually considering the difference between K-Von and Clarkson... no.... this is the difference you're considering....

 

 

[sturt]

On 8/21/2022 at 8:41 PM, sturt said:

Could we see some trade of either of the former SAC assets in September?

We know this much... the theory has been out there for awhile that Schlields isn't done with this roster... perhaps uninformed theory, but a theory nonetheless.

Of course, I've spent the off-season mostly intrigued by OKC assets that seemingly could be had by virtue of the fact that they are on the short list of teams that must cut down some of their contracts before the season, one way or another. But/and my greatest OKC interest has always been someone who isn't even on their roster, but that they merely have rights to sign if they ever could get together on something... Micic.

Been intrigued just in the last 24 hours, though, to think about another team in a similar situation as OKC and to the same extreme of having 18 contracts, but only 15 slots into which to fit them. HOU received too much in return from DAL to not part ways with some of their booty, and it's thought that every one of those guys is likely to be playing somewhere else other than HOU. But most attractive is the guy going into his 3rd year who, The Athletic reported, has asked to be traded: Kenyon Martin, Jr.

Truly, he could be a fit for us behind Hunter.

Rocket bloggers have theorized they should be able to get a protected 2nd round pick for him, and that seems in the ballpark to me.

I'd propose breaking up the Holiday brothers, me. I'm like someone else here who recently said he prefers to think of BogBog as a SG, not a SF.

Further, I think Marquese Chriss has had 2 pretty strong seasons in the last 3. DAL probably most hated to part with him of all the assets that they sent to HOU. He would slot in very nicely as that other big that I'd like to think we're going to acquire at some point. Not that I've given up on Derrick Favors--I really think if/when OKC cuts him, someone's going to get him on a minimum contract and find he's got a lot of miles still left on that tread. But lately, the OKC beat writer has offered that he's begun to feel like they might keep Favors after all, in view of his veteran leadership. So, Chriss is a worthy thought here.

So... this trade with the better of our two 2024 2nd round picks also going to HOU sounds like a square deal to me.

Would KM get minutes ahead of Mo Harkless? Not really sure if they're both healthy, but then KM's the better bet to stay healthy, of course. And, too, KM costs you less than $2m this and next season... so, at worst, it's reasonable to assume he'd be your highest producing player per-dollar next season.

 

 

Dovetailing this post... from a Rockets blogger on Fansided...

https://twitter.com/Kyle__Boone/status/1562509699026628614?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1562509699026628614|twgr^be245a439fcba26a3117247b1d2252a7167deaad|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbssports.com%2Fnba%2Fnews%2Fchet-holmgren-injury-update-thunder-fear-no-2-overall-pick-has-suffered-ligament-damage-in-foot-per-report%2F

[AHF]

3 hours ago, sturt said:

So, let's just get this out of the way.............

 

.... and... to the substance...

A "marginally better" K-Von is fine by me for the reasons already given.

I can't emphasize enough... it's not like this team should be predisposed to saving money in these two years of Murray it is guaranteed to have. It's not likely to get easier. If you can make your rotation appreciably better at little talent cost, it has to happen.

Now.

Remember... at this point, you're not actually considering the difference between K-Von and Clarkson... no.... this is the difference you're considering....

 

 

I still think if we wanted someone like Clarkson we would have dealt for him instead of Justin.  Don’t see it.  But I will absolutely come back here and give an enthusiastic tip of the cap to you if Schlesinger acquires him.  (While I blast TS for being dumb enough to spend that dough for a subpar chucker.)

 

3 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Hawks are currently a tax team, so any trade for OG, Clarkson etc - Hawks have to send out "matching' salary. The 125%+100k rule applies

Good point on what a deal like this needs to look like.

[sturt]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I still think if we wanted someone like Clarkson we would have dealt for him instead of Justin.  Don’t see it.  But I will absolutely come back here and give an enthusiastic tip of the cap to you if Schlesinger acquires him.  (While I blast TS for being dumb enough to spend that dough for a subpar chucker.)

1. Don't know that he was ever thought to be available. All the talk for Utah, obviously, has surrounded Gobert and Mitchell, and it's hard to imagine Utah would want to make any smaller deals until they figure out what's happening with both those two. Indeed, my only reason for even thinking Clarkson might be marketable is because if they do send out Mitchell, (a) that would signal almost certainly they're in full rebuild mode, and (b) that almost certainly will mean that they give serious consideration to moving bigger money vets on the roster.

 

2. A deal built on Clarkson for JDay+Mo is doable. (Essentially $13.3m coming in against a possible $13.6m allowed)

 

3. I don't think this is going to happen. Let me be clear about that. It's merely one of those things that theoretically could.

I'm much more inclined to think the other trade idea could work out--KJ Martin is understood to have asked to be traded, HOU needs to shed some contracts anyway, and if it were Martin/Chriss for JDay, for the tax conscious, you're looking at a salary savings anyhow. Having Martin and Harkless behind Hunter would be pretty stout. All three are SFs with significant time at PF as well, and BogBog ends up getting nearly all of his minutes at SG, which a lot of us prefer.

As for Chriss, he really did turn some heads in DAL as-if he finally was looking something like his draft reports thought he could be....

 

And for people like @Diesel who are pounding the table for a guy whose history proves he's not bashful to mix it up....

 

 

 

[sturt]

22 hours ago, sturt said:

1. Don't know that he was ever thought to be available. All the talk for Utah, obviously, has surrounded Gobert and Mitchell, and it's hard to imagine Utah would want to make any smaller deals until they figure out what's happening with both those two. Indeed, my only reason for even thinking Clarkson might be marketable is because if they do send out Mitchell, (a) that would signal almost certainly they're in full rebuild mode, and (b) that almost certainly will mean that they give serious consideration to moving bigger money vets on the roster.

 

2. A deal built on Clarkson for JDay+Mo is doable. (Essentially $13.3m coming in against a possible $13.6m allowed)

 

3. I don't think this is going to happen. Let me be clear about that. It's merely one of those things that theoretically could.

 

Don't look now, but given the incoming from the Lakers, it seems that much more likely that Clarkson is going to be suiting up with some other team this season. Maybe not ATL, but some other team.

[sturt]

Fwiw... took a moment to look at the last 3 years of the objects of my most recent affection in this thread, per Raptor...

 

 

[Spud2nique]

On 8/24/2022 at 8:58 PM, sturt said:

1. Don't know that he was ever thought to be available. All the talk for Utah, obviously, has surrounded Gobert and Mitchell, and it's hard to imagine Utah would want to make any smaller deals until they figure out what's happening with both those two. Indeed, my only reason for even thinking Clarkson might be marketable is because if they do send out Mitchell, (a) that would signal almost certainly they're in full rebuild mode, and (b) that almost certainly will mean that they give serious consideration to moving bigger money vets on the roster.

 

2. A deal built on Clarkson for JDay+Mo is doable. (Essentially $13.3m coming in against a possible $13.6m allowed)

 

3. I don't think this is going to happen. Let me be clear about that. It's merely one of those things that theoretically could.

I'm much more inclined to think the other trade idea could work out--KJ Martin is understood to have asked to be traded, HOU needs to shed some contracts anyway, and if it were Martin/Chriss for JDay, for the tax conscious, you're looking at a salary savings anyhow. Having Martin and Harkless behind Hunter would be pretty stout. All three are SFs with significant time at PF as well, and BogBog ends up getting nearly all of his minutes at SG, which a lot of us prefer.

As for Chriss, he really did turn some heads in DAL as-if he finally was looking something like his draft reports thought he could be....

 

And for people like @Diesel who are pounding the table for a guy whose history proves he's not bashful to mix it up....

 

 

 

Chriss already has his go around a in the league. Talented, sure, why can’t he stick? I don’t want his issues around a positive locker room. He doesn’t move the meter enough to be worth the risk to me. Pass.

[sturt]

5 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

to me. Pass.

 

Hmmm...

Changed my mind.

Chriss isn't the throw-in to the deal, he's the target. Forget KJ, just do whatever you have to do to trade for Chriss, even if you have to give up a 1st.

[JayBirdHawk]

6 minutes ago, sturt said:

 

Hmmm...

Changed my mind.

Chriss isn't the throw-in to the deal, he's the target. Forget KJ, just do whatever you have to do to trade for Chriss, even if you have to give up a 1st.

 

No one is giving up a 1st for journey man (5 teams already) Marquese Chriss on a vet min.

[sturt]

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

No one is giving up a 1st for journey man (5 teams already) Marquese Chriss on a vet min.

Right. But. That was before we learned what we just learned, tho.

If the Rockets played hard ball, I'd even be tempted to go as high as 2 FRPs unprotected.

 

[Spud2nique]

6 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

to me.

To me and Schlenk actually. 
 

Spud/Schlenk 2020 Okongwu  

Spud/Schlenk 2022 Griffin  

#iamcolonel #imschlenkierthanyou 

If we’ve learned anything from the past it’s that I been right. 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

Right. But. That was before we learned what we just learned, tho.

If the Rockets played hard ball, I'd even be tempted to go as high as 2 FRPs unprotected.

 

This is a joke right?  That is one of the craziest statements I think I've ever seen on this site.  

10 hours ago, sturt said:

Fwiw... took a moment to look at the last 3 years of the objects of my most recent affection in this thread, per Raptor...

 

 

Good reference point.  Thanks for posting.  Definitely is evidence in support of my statement that Clarkson's DRTG numbers were greatly overstating his actual subpar defensive capabilities.  Makes Justin Holiday look a little better from that perspective.

[Spud2nique]

18 minutes ago, AHF said:

This is a joke right? 

 

[sturt]

25 minutes ago, AHF said:

This is a joke right?

[sturt]

27 minutes ago, AHF said:

Clarkson's DRTG numbers were greatly overstating his actual subpar defensive capabilities.

I should have already said this, no kidding.... you're right on that.

My thing is to look at a DRTG for a player, and then compare that to his team's overall DRTG... dunno why they don't just translate it that way to begin with, but then, who am I to complain... we enjoy such an ocean of statistics these days compared to when I was younger and you'd be fortunate if your local newspaper would run just the basic NBA stats once a week.

Clarkson is consistently 2-3 points worse than his team's overall in the seasons I looked at.

 

That said.... as I'm sure you know... Clarkson got that 6th man award for good reason... he's some high octane fuel booster offensively.