Hawks Lineups: How do you see it playing out?

[JayBirdHawk]

Just started listening: SF discussion.

Locked On Hawks - Daily Podcast On The Atlanta Hawks https://open.spotify.com/episode/2UM24zqRaqEJ3DB6Wt98Or

 

[gurpilo]

hace 5 horas, sturt dijo:

All good.

And "the wheel" was chosen instead of other Basque words because... ? You're a racing fan, too? You're always on the go?

Honestly speaking I Cannot remember why I choose the word, didn’t thought anyone would guess it.

[benhillboy]

16 hours ago, sturt said:

Not a popular thing to say, but we don't actually have exceptional proof just yet that 2021-22 Murray is what we should expect. He has years of underperformance and only one season of high performance, which was the caution flag in making the deal Schlields did. Glass half-empty, he regresses to the mean, and BogBog returns to the starting line-up.

Otoh, I think Aaron's a little more valuable... a little... than he seems to have gotten credit. That's more a criticism of how he's been regarded than it is a compliment to how good he is. He's a decent player in reality. He actually has shot from the arc better than his brother. The ding on him is that he's PG sized, but more of a SG in terms of skill set... but you can do a lot worse at PG, still.

 

Aside: @gurpilo I see that your username means "the wheel"... in Basque... is there a story there?

People capable of creative and original thought have no concerns for popularity.

These bar graphs are from almost two years ago but just as you say, I expect Murray to be somewhere in between his stellar ‘21-‘22 campaign and these mediocre-across-the-board values:

Here’s Trae’s from 2 years ago:

 

Trae is never going to cut, so Dejounte absolutely has to.

Trae, a career average three point shooter relative to the league, has got to lay off the step backs and highly-contested threes and spam the spot ups where he soars.  Especially when Murray is so far below league average in shooting percentage and rate.  With Kyle in the fold I’m gonna give Trae one more season to substantially increase the corner three frequency.  I’m sure Kyle has talked to him several times about it.  Y’all will hear about it officially through the media mid-season lol.
 

I have no idea how this table defines “off screen PNR” but for Trae to be near 50th percentile while Murray doesn’t even register the play type is alarming.

If this plot were from last season I would guess Murray’s PNR ball handler  and transition bars would be much taller, ball handler thicker.

Here are their radial plots:

 

 

Seem like pretty good matches in a lot of areas.  Trae’s “drawing contact” has dropped obviously with the new rules.  Dejounte’s assists, shooting percentage within 3 feet, and his FT attempts all spiked last season so the “drawing contact”, “playmaking”, and “finishing” slices should expand considerably.

The defense and elite rebounding for the position is obviously where he provides what Trae can’t and what Kevin couldn’t.  It is concerning why the “activity” is far above the actual impact though, there are big wings who accomplish more with less activity.  The author is wrong for that little sliver of defense in Trae’s plot lol. At least the activity is half respectable.

Out the gate I’m gonna be checking for how often Murray is tasked with pressing full court.  Only asking Holiday to do so ain’t gonna cut it.  You listening Nate?!?!

It’s gonna be a work in progress for sure but should be very entertaining.  There’s gonna be some awesome highs with their level of talent, with some spots of mistrust and confusion borne out of their grave lack of size and willingness to be on ball.  Derrick White had a lower usage on that team with considerably higher efficiency.  I don’t want Murray doing things that aren’t strengths.  I’m just speculating but I think his great ability to slither into tight spots may get him in trouble more than you’d like.

Edited October 2, 2022 by benhillboy

[benhillboy]

I’m eager to see Murray’s vision on a consistent basis to determine if that ridiculous assist to turnover last season wasn’t a fluke.  It’s very rare you see a steady three-year spike in improvement like his.

Edited October 2, 2022 by benhillboy

[JayBirdHawk]

Agree? Yes or No?

Predicting Every NBA Team's Best Closing Lineup

Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De'Andre Hunter and John Collins

Trae Young and Dejounte Murray are givens. They're the two best players on the Atlanta Hawks, and even if they're both used to being ball-dominant, they're also unselfish enough to figure it out.

Young's range should widen driving lanes for Murray. The other side of the coin is Murray's slashing pulling defenders inside and giving Young a few more catch-and-shoot opportunities.

Surrounding those two with as much shooting as possible should be the goal from there. De'Andre Hunter shot 37.9 percent from deep last season. Bogdan Bogdanovic is at 38.4 percent for his career, and he adds a dash of playmaking, too.

Having that much shooting and creation around a big like John Collins, who can score as either a roll man or floor-spacer, is going to be impossible to defend.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10050019-predicting-every-nba-teams-best-closing-lineup

 

[JTB]

7 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Agree? Yes or No?

Predicting Every NBA Team's Best Closing Lineup

Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De'Andre Hunter and John Collins

Trae Young and Dejounte Murray are givens. They're the two best players on the Atlanta Hawks, and even if they're both used to being ball-dominant, they're also unselfish enough to figure it out.

Young's range should widen driving lanes for Murray. The other side of the coin is Murray's slashing pulling defenders inside and giving Young a few more catch-and-shoot opportunities.

Surrounding those two with as much shooting as possible should be the goal from there. De'Andre Hunter shot 37.9 percent from deep last season. Bogdan Bogdanovic is at 38.4 percent for his career, and he adds a dash of playmaking, too.

Having that much shooting and creation around a big like John Collins, who can score as either a roll man or floor-spacer, is going to be impossible to defend.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10050019-predicting-every-nba-teams-best-closing-lineup

 

I think we already went through this and at least to me it’s been proven that Capela OR OO will need to be on the floor at the end of games.

Cant just take the defensive anchor or second best rim protector out the lineup in crunch time. I would disagree and say it’s very dependent on the situation really but typically Bogi or Hunter will be on the bench when the game is on the line and IT SHOULD be Trae, Murray, Collins, Capela or OO as guarantees to be on the floor when the game is on the line.

of course this is all just my opinion.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

15 hours ago, benhillboy said:

People capable of creative and original thought have no concerns for popularity.

These bar graphs are from almost two years ago but just as you say, I expect Murray to be somewhere in between his stellar ‘21-‘22 campaign and these mediocre-across-the-board values:

Here’s Trae’s from 2 years ago:

 

Trae is never going to cut, so Dejounte absolutely has to.

Trae, a career average three point shooter relative to the league, has got to lay off the step backs and highly-contested threes and spam the spot ups where he soars.  Especially when Murray is so far below league average in shooting percentage and rate.  With Kyle in the fold I’m gonna give Trae one more season to substantially increase the corner three frequency.  I’m sure Kyle has talked to him several times about it.  Y’all will hear about it officially through the media mid-season lol.
 

I have no idea how this table defines “off screen PNR” but for Trae to be near 50th percentile while Murray doesn’t even register the play type is alarming.

If this plot were from last season I would guess Murray’s PNR ball handler  and transition bars would be much taller, ball handler thicker.

Here are their radial plots:

 

 

Seem like pretty good matches in a lot of areas.  Trae’s “drawing contact” has dropped obviously with the new rules.  Dejounte’s assists, shooting percentage within 3 feet, and his FT attempts all spiked last season so the “drawing contact”, “playmaking”, and “finishing” slices should expand considerably.

The defense and elite rebounding for the position is obviously where he provides what Trae can’t and what Kevin couldn’t.  It is concerning why the “activity” is far above the actual impact though, there are big wings who accomplish more with less activity.  The author is wrong for that little sliver of defense in Trae’s plot lol. At least the activity is half respectable.

Out the gate I’m gonna be checking for how often Murray is tasked with pressing full court.  Only asking Holiday to do so ain’t gonna cut it.  You listening Nate?!?!

It’s gonna be a work in progress for sure but should be very entertaining.  There’s gonna be some awesome highs with their level of talent, with some spots of mistrust and confusion borne out of their grave lack of size and willingness to be on ball.  Derrick White had a lower usage on that team with considerably higher efficiency.  I don’t want Murray doing things that aren’t strengths.  I’m just speculating but I think his great ability to slither into tight spots may get him in trouble more than you’d like.

 

To be honest, that graph for Murray based on his 2019 - 20 performance, is way out of date.  He's a much better player than what that graph shows.  His playmaking, especially in transition, is something that makes him special when he has the ball.  

And the thing about Murray is that he doesn't have to play the point, in order to be a facilitator.  Nate would be crazy to take the ball out of Trae's hands, considering we had the #2 offense last year.  What will happen though, is that our 2 guard won't always settle to look for a 3.  He'll attack the paint and kick it out to shooters . . like Trae.

This is an element that we haven't had in Atlanta during the Trae Young era.  Those guys hardly ever get the ball back to Trae, after he gave it up to them.  He only got it back if they couldn't score.

With Murray, Trae is liable to get the ball in spots where he's wide open, because the defense is so concerned about Murray getting in the paint.

 

 

Trae is literally one of the top 5 spot up shooters in the league, but has very low volume because his teammates didn't get the ball back to him often enough.

As for the corner 3s, that's teammate dependent.  They have to be looking to get him the ball when open.  You'll see that play out in a few of these plays.

 

 

[Gray Mule]

All these stats!  Who you are on the floor with will determine a lot of your stats.  Young and Murray have never had another player to compare how they will fit together.  Having watched them play, we can make a lot of educated guesses.  

A terrible thought.  This may not work.  Oil and water don't mix.  

Yes, we believe.  This has to work and it will.  It will be great.  With these two, what one of them doesn't do well, the other one does.  We will have one of the very best back courts in the NBA!  Improvement in the east this off-season must include Atlanta!

[AHF]

13 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

To be honest, that graph for Murray based on his 2019 - 20 performance, is way out of date.  He's a much better player than what that graph shows.  His playmaking, especially in transition, is something that makes him special when he has the ball.  

And the thing about Murray is that he doesn't have to play the point, in order to be a facilitator.  Nate would be crazy to take the ball out of Trae's hands, considering we had the #2 offense last year.  What will happen though, is that our 2 guard won't always settle to look for a 3.  He'll attack the paint and kick it out to shooters . . like Trae.

This is an element that we haven't had in Atlanta during the Trae Young era.  Those guys hardly ever get the ball back to Trae, after he gave it up to them.  He only got it back if they couldn't score.

With Murray, Trae is liable to get the ball in spots where he's wide open, because the defense is so concerned about Murray getting in the paint.

 

 

Trae is literally one of the top 5 spot up shooters in the league, but has very low volume because his teammates didn't get the ball back to him often enough.

As for the corner 3s, that's teammate dependent.  They have to be looking to get him the ball when open.  You'll see that play out in a few of these plays.

 

 

Great  post.  This is definitely what I hope to see with Murray and Trae this season.

[Final_quest]

Let's look at a few guys VORP from last year:

Hunter = -0.8
Okongwu = 0.7
Dejounte Murray = 4.4

People are projecting Hunter and Okongwu to have a break out year and now we're wondering if Murray had a fluke year.  Why don't we believe in what actually happened on the court?  That's what I believe the most.  

[JayBirdHawk]

15 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

To be honest, that graph for Murray based on his 2019 - 20 performance, is way out of date.  He's a much better player than what that graph shows.  

Particularly since he was returning that year from a torn ACL the year prior.

[JayBirdHawk]

15 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

What will happen though, is that our 2 guard won't always settle to look for a 3.  He'll attack the paint and kick it out to shooters . . like Trae

...this is the biggest change we'll see, not having to settle for 3. It will change how defenses will guard our SG.

[macdaddy]

20 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

...this is the biggest change we'll see, not having to settle for 3. It will change how defenses will guard our SG.

Well in Kevin's defense he often attacked the paint and then backpedaled to the free throw line for a fade away.

(just kidding Kev.  (sort of))

[Gray Mule]

12 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Well in Kevin's defense he often attacked the paint and then backpedaled to the free throw line for a fade away.

(just kidding Kev.  (sort of))

What ever works!

[Diesel]

It's going to require motion and fast breaking. 

This is the one thing that Nate has to put in place.  Movement.   We can't be a slow offense.   DJM's strength is getting the ball to people while he's moving forward with the ball.   It requires lots of movement.   Thus far, we have had some systems with movement but our bread and butter has been 1, 5 and 1,4 PNR.. after that we have had nothing to the bucket (last year).  That's where the change has to come.   Has Nate coached movement before?  He had some in PTL.  Oladipo was Murray like in Indy.   But I don't know what happened with Brogdan. 

The one on the hot seat is Nate.   If Nate can't put together an offensive gameplan that considers everybody.. then he may as well retire. 

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

If the 1st preseason game is a forecast, the nine-man rotation until Bogi returns will be:

1st - Trae, DJ, Dre, JC, Cap

2nd - The Holidaze (courtesy of @Diesel), JJ and OO

[JayBirdHawk]

Preseason is Over!

Any Bogi update?

Any Clint update?

What does our top 9 look like? (No Bogi)

Trae seems to be playing the 1st quarter in it's entirety? Is this the plan? Thoughts?

Will AJ get any meaningful minutes?

 

 

[hylndr11]

they arent gonna rush bogi, hes too valuable if he gets back to what he did when he went on that tear year before last.  Hes prolly got anohter 6 weeks atleast.  

[JayBirdHawk]

On 10/2/2022 at 5:44 AM, benhillboy said:

I’m eager to see Murray’s vision on a consistent basis to determine if that ridiculous assist to turnover last season wasn’t a fluke.  It’s very rare you see a steady three-year spike in improvement like his.

It's only one game, but do you believe it now?

[JayBirdHawk]

It seems as if it will be a 9-man rotation that Nate will use, at least for now.

No AJ. (Koonin mentioned on radio two days ago to expect him to spend time in GL, so it appears he will get the JJ treatment)