Removing Voter Biases from All-NBA Selection: Using Data

[TheNorthCydeRises]

With some of the voters for the All-NBA team already revealing some of their choices, it's mind boggling how the media simply chooses their favorite players.  There's no way that most of them watch enough NBA to evaluate the entire league.  And when you're putting guys on the team that haven't even played 60 games this season, I think it's time we take the subjectivity out of the hands of the media.

So instead of letting biased sports writers and commentators choose the All-NBA teams, why not do it with a criteria of stats that can accurately determine who should be selected?

I'm looking at 6 categories to judge players by, and ranking each player according to how they compare to others in that statistic.  You add the numbers up across the board and you get the weighted average of the sum of their rankings, to determine the spots.

Here's the criteria

• Player Winning %:   Too often, these writers will look at a team's record, and give value to that player for the record.  Most times, it's accurate.  But with players missing a ton of games these days, the actual team winning percentage when the player plays, may be skewed one way or another.  Winning matters. And I don't think guys who put up stats on mediocre teams should be seen in the same light as guys who do the same on high level teams.  So I'm weighting this category 3x as much as the others.
  • Weighted percentage:  42.8%

 

• PER:  People don't like this stat, because it tends to skew higher toward bigs who score and rebound. But PER is pretty accurate at identifying the impact players in the league. 
  • Weighted percentage:  14.3%

 

• Overall RAPTOR: I like RAPTOR because its one of the few advanced metrics that tries to put value on both offense and defense. 
  • Weighted percentage: 14.3%

 

• Win Score / 48:  This has always been a favorite stat of mine, because it rewards efficiency and statistical excellence, within the time you're in the game.  Even bench players can put up great WS/48 numbers. Okongwu has the 2nd best WS/48 number on the Hawks with .185, only behind Capela's .201. 
  • Weighted percentage:  14.3%

 

• VORP: Baseball analytic guys swear by VORP. In the NBA, VORP rewards your stat producers and the guys who play many games.  And if you're excellent at your position, VORP will clearly indicate that.  Trae Young produced a VORP of 3.4 this season.  Good, but definitely not in the top 20 of players.  Last year, he had a VORP of 4.8, which placed him in the top 10. 
  • Weighted percentage:  14.3%

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Guards

 

Instead of me making an assumption of who I thought the top 5 guards were in the league, I wanted to make sure I didn't miss anybody. So for the guards, I took who I thought were the best 18 guards in the league, excluding guys who didn't play at least 50 games in a season.

The players that you see in red are the players that didn't play in at least 65 games.  This would make them ineligible to make an All-NBA team once the new CBA kicks in.

Once again, I have 6 criteria that I'm looking at, with Player Winning % being weighed 3x heavily than the other categories. The above graphic is sorted by player winning %.  Here are the final results:

 

 

When you reward winning, the lead guards on the high level teams should get the most credit.  If people were really real about how they voted, and didn't punish James this season for playing less than 60 games, then James Harden should be 1st team All-NBA.

He's been very good as the leader of the Sixers attack, facilitating at a high rate, while playing a very good all-around game.  But with him only playing 58 games, you almost have to take that into consideration ( although some writers are talking about putting Dame Lillard on an All-NBA team ), which raw stat wise, he's deserving.  But I'm sorry. Even when he played, his team didn't win 50% of their games, so I cant reward that.

Instead, how about we reward Donovan Mitchell, who has been great as the #1 option of the 51 win Cleveland Cavaliers.  28.3 pgg - along with 4 dimes and 4 boards, with 48% FG and 39% 3FG numbers, puts him as one of the top impact guards in the NBA this season.

Jrue Holiday's value is definitely propped up by the winning.  He doesn't have #1 offensive option responsibilities like Mitchell, but his steady play on both ends of the floor has made Jrue a valuable piece for the #1 Milwaukee Bucks.

I put Jaylen Brown at guard, even though I probably should've put him at forward.  I thought Brown would have a better shot at making one of the teams at Guard.  But I honestly was surprised at how low some of his advanced metrics were.  He only posted a 19.5 PER, despite his 26.6 ppg average. This is mainly because he shot 33% from 3, and only 75% FT on 5 attempts.  Shockingly low RAPTOR and VORP ratings.

Our own Trae Young ranks 16th out of 18th.  Despite the 26 ppg - 10 assists, he hasn't had an efficient year offensively, and the advanced metrics across the board show this.  And with his team being the poster child for being .500, it's hard to make a case to elevate Trae above some of the other guys.

 

Going with the data, and eliminating the players in red, here are the All-NBA selections at guard.

 

1st team

• Donovan Mitchell
• Jrue Holiday

2nd team

• Luka Doncic
• Jaylen Brunson

3rd team

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
• Jalen Brown

 

 

If you include the RED players, here are your teams:

1st team

• James Harden
• Ja Morant

2nd team

• Donovan Mitchell
• Jrue Holiday

3rd team

• Stephen Curry
• Luka Doncic

 

If you don't weight the player winning % category, and make that equal with the other categories, and add the players in red, here are your teams:

1st team

• Luka Doncic
• Stephen Curry

2nd team

• Damian Lillard
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

3rd team

• James Harden
• Donovan Mitchell

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Forwards

 

The biggest question that voters will have is this:  Do I add Kevin Durant to an All-NBA team?

The answer should be NO. 

He only played in 47 games this year and not even in 60% of the games.  But he checks the box in every other category.  He has the 2nd highest player winning % of all of the forwards on this list. He put up a 50/40/90 season with an eye popping 61.4% eFG.  And he had a 29 pt - 7 rebs - 5 asst season on only 18 shots per game.  He was outstanding.

But 47 games.  Why reward him for 47 games of work?  Because he's great.  Next season, it won't matter because he'll be ineligible.

 

 

I hope Giannis is OK. He went down hard in that Miami game and didn't return.  Of course with Giannis out, Miami had a field day to steal Game 1 in Milwaukee.  But during the season, Giannis was his normal stellar self.  Being top 3 in all categories sees him as the top forward in the game.

Jayson Tatum followed up his great season last year, with a 1st team All-NBA worthy this season. 30 ppg - 9 rebs - and almost 5 assist a game powered Boston to the #2 spot in the East.  The guy has become an offensive nightmare in this league.  He has room to be a little more efficient. And if he does, he'll start to get a lot of 1st place MVP votes.

Jimmy Butler has had the best season of his career, on a Miami Heat team that, next to the Hawks, were the most "middest" team in the NBA.  23 - 6 and 5 on 54% FG ( career high ) and almost 2 steals.  In the new format though, Jimmy gets screwed, by only playing 64 games.  I'm sure if he's this close next season, putting up the same stats, they'll make some sort of exception for Jimmy to be considered.

Jaren Jackson Jr looks like he's finally ready to take the leap to being a perennial All-Star.  After making his first All-Star team, and taking over as the leader of the Grizzlies in the absence of "Ghost" Morant, JJJ has really taken his game to the next level after the All-Star break.  Not only did he average 21 ppg after the break, he kept up his stellar defensive play, averaging almost 3 blocks per game.

 

All-NBA teams ( eliminating RED Players )

1st team

• Giannis
• Jayson Tatum

2nd team

• Jaren Jackson Jr
• Julius Randle

3rd team

• Evan Mobley
• Lauri Markkanen

 

All-NBA teams ( including RED players )

1st team

• Giannis
• Kevin Durant

2nd team

• Kawhi Leonard
• Jayson Tatum

3rd team

• Jimmy Butler
• Jaren Jackson Jr

 

All-NBA team ( player win % weighed equal with other categories + RED players included )

1st team

• Giannis
• Jimmy Butler

2nd team

• Kevin Durant
• Kawhi Leonard

3rd team

• Jayson Tatum
• Lebron James

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Centers

 

This has been a 2-man race to see who is going to be 1st team All-NBA at center, and to be honest, for the league MVP.  Jokic is a 2x MVP.  Embiid is looking for his 1st MVP award.  And the sentiment seems to be sliding toward Embiid as the MVP.

Embiid leads the league in ppg scoring for the 2nd year in a row.  33 - 10 and 4 dimes, to go with almost 2 blocks. Probably most impressive is that he goes to the FT line almost 12 times a game, making 86% of his FTs. The guy has done everything asked from him, outside of having his team post the best record in the NBA, to deserve the league MVP. 

But Jokic is still stuffing the stat sheet with historic efficiency.

PPG and Rebs are down ( 24.5 - 11.8 respectively ), but he averaged a career high 9.8 assists, basically putting him 12 assist away from averaging a triple double . . . as a center.  He posted 29 trip-doubs this season, leading the league.  And although he slashed the number of 3s he took in half ( only 149 this year, down from 288 ), he's shooting a career high 38% from 3, which translated into a career high from the field at 63%.

Regardless of who is picked, you really can't go wrong either way.

 

 

Jokic earns the only perfect score among centers.  #1 in every category.

But let's give a major shout out to Domantas Sabonis. He was traded away from Indiana last season as the Pacers decided to re-tool their team. The Kings, who needed a big to pair with De'Aaron Fox, welcomed Sabonis with open arms.  After adding Kevin Huerter in the offseason, the Kings were ready to take off.  Sabonis responded with a type of season that people described that his father could put up.  19 - 12 ( led the league in rebounds ) - and a career high 7 assists, helped the Kings return to the playoffs, and secure the #3 seed in the West.

 

All-NBA team ( exluding RED Players )

1st team

• Nikola Jokic

2nd team

• Joel Embiid

3rd team

• Domantas Sabonis

 

All-NBA team ( including RED players )

1st team

• Nikola Jokic

2nd team

• Joel Embiid

3rd team

• Domantas Sabonis

 

All-NBA team ( player win % weighed equally + players in RED included )

1st team

• Nikola Jokic

2nd team

• Joel Embiid

3rd team

• Anthony Davis

[TheNorthCydeRises]

The writers who vote for All-NBA are clowns.

Please take subjectivity out of this process.  They can't be trusted.

[macdaddy]

This is really cool.  It actually isn't as far off who was actually picked as i expected though.   I like the idea of placing a lot of value on winning but in that respect i think players from teams who didn't make the playoffs should be eliminated.