Spud’s favorite 2023 prospect for Hawks

[Final_quest]

38 minutes ago, AHF said:

As it played out, I think he would have started [played a huge role in the rotation] for the first part of the year and would have been in high demand as a trade target.  Tons of teams could have used someone like him.  Someone like LA would have been desperate for him with the way they started the year.  I still think waiting and trading him in-season would have been the best balance to strike.  Bogi might have had a setback and never played this season in which case he would have been critical to the team.

I guess that's my problem with this thinking.  Everything would work out perfectly if we'd have kept Huerter and it played out like this.  Problem is we had no way of knowing how it was going to play out though.  The whole argument is hindsight bias.

#1. We didn't know if Bogi would be back or not taking those minutes. 

#2. You guys are assuming Huerter would have shot lights out for us under Nate's system and had higher trade value. 

It could have just as easily turned into a situation where Huerter wasn't fitting into the rotation or that he has two months of poor shooting.  If either of those happen there is no market for trading Huerter for a 1st round pick.  You get his likely top value when it is offered, especially if you know you are not committed to the player.  

As far as @JayBirdHawk saying it showed low confidence in Murray.  All I can say is every team in the NBA is wanting to build their draft capital.  It's basically the top trade currency, and you should always be strategic with how you spend and acquire first round picks.  To say our job is done when we traded for Murray is a losing strategy.  Your job is never done as a FO.  

[JayBirdHawk]

3 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

As far as @JayBirdHawk saying it showed low confidence in Murray.  All I can say is every team in the NBA is wanting to build their draft capital.  It's basically the top trade currency, and you should always be strategic with how you spend and acquire first round picks.  To say our job is done when we traded for Murray is a losing strategy.  Your job is never done as a FO.  

First priority should be fielding a competitive team....and as much as you talk about draft capital, this trade was ALWAYS about getting under the Tax first - and that was my major issue with it. Ownership was more interested in avoiding the tax like the plague.

[Final_quest]

8 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

First priority should be fielding a competitive team....and as much as you talk about draft capital, this trade was ALWAYS about getting under the Tax first - and that was my major issue with it. Ownership was more interested in avoiding the tax like the plague.

A lot of truth to this, but I actually have less of a problem with avoiding the tax at that point in time than others.  If we would have kept Huerter and paid the tax, what do you think would have happened last year?  That question may deserve it's own thread.  My thoughts:

#1. Slightly better overall record and still a first round series playoff loss

#2. Nate is still our coach

#3. No trade for Bey

#4. No minutes for AJ all season

We would have paid the tax to keep Huerter and Nate.  Not that great of an outcome.  

[JayBirdHawk]

20 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

A lot of truth to this, but I actually have less of a problem with avoiding the tax at that point in time than others.  If we would have kept Huerter and paid the tax, what do you think would have happened last year?  That question may deserve it's own thread.  My thoughts:

 I understood avoiding the tax, It was more so of the timing of it:  It did not need to be before the season started. We could have either trade Huerter or Bogi at the deadline depending on our record.  Maybe we get a better player if Huerter played as well as he did earlier on, or it could have been Bogi traded.

[JayBirdHawk]

22 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

#2. Nate is still our coach

That may be the saving grace, not having Nate ....but then again he would have still butted heads with Trae and TS would still be gone.

[Final_quest]

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 I understood avoiding the tax, It was more so of the timing of it:  It did not need to be before the season started. We could have either trade Huerter or Bogi at the deadline depending on our record.  Maybe we get a better player if Huerter played as well as he did earlier on, or it could have been Bogi traded.

I guess that sounds like playing with fire to me.  Hope that the deal you want is ALSO available at the trade deadline knowing that you already have a deal you like right now.  

[Final_quest]

6 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

That may be the saving grace, not having Nate ....but then again he would have still butted heads with Trae and TS would still be gone.

I really think Nate is still the coach through that whole season, and Quin Snyder may pick Milwaukee as his next stop.  

[JayBirdHawk]

2 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

I guess that sounds like playing with fire to me.  Hope that the deal you want is ALSO available at the trade deadline knowing that you already have a deal you like right now.  

Well, we played with fire when he had a sorry bench to start the year with only OO as the only returning bench player with some real experience.

[macdaddy]

Just now, Final_quest said:

I really think Nate is still the coach through that whole season, and Quin Snyder may pick Milwaukee as his next stop.  

Yeah that's the scary part although i'm guessing Kyle and Landry had their eye on Quin the whole season.  No way Nate comes back next season barring a finals run. 

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Well, we played with fire when he had a sorry bench to start the year with only OO as the only returning bench player with some real experience.

They traded Huerter months before the ACTUAL start of the year.  Bogi was supposed to be back, and had been one of the top bench players in the league the previous year.  Then you also would have an allstar PG playing with the bench at all times Trae or DJM.  The core of the bench was supposed to be 3 starter level players.  

[AHF]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

He would have played in lieu of Justin Holiday.

Agree but I think he would have played more than Holiday as well because he is much, much better than JHoliday.

[AHF]

2 hours ago, Final_quest said:

I guess that's my problem with this thinking.  Everything would work out perfectly if we'd have kept Huerter and it played out like this.  Problem is we had no way of knowing how it was going to play out though.  The whole argument is hindsight bias.

#1. We didn't know if Bogi would be back or not taking those minutes. 

#2. You guys are assuming Huerter would have shot lights out for us under Nate's system and had higher trade value. 

It could have just as easily turned into a situation where Huerter wasn't fitting into the rotation or that he has two months of poor shooting.  If either of those happen there is no market for trading Huerter for a 1st round pick.  You get his likely top value when it is offered, especially if you know you are not committed to the player.  

As far as @JayBirdHawk saying it showed low confidence in Murray.  All I can say is every team in the NBA is wanting to build their draft capital.  It's basically the top trade currency, and you should always be strategic with how you spend and acquire first round picks.  To say our job is done when we traded for Murray is a losing strategy.  Your job is never done as a FO.  

How is it hindsight bias when many of us said it immediately after the trade happened?  I am recognizing how things played out today but I said basically the day that trade happened that I felt like it was too early to do it.  That is the opposite of hindsight bias.

[JayBirdHawk]

6 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

They traded Huerter months before the ACTUAL start of the year.  Bogi was supposed to be back, and had been one of the top bench players in the league the previous year.  Then you also would have an allstar PG playing with the bench at all times Trae or DJM.  The core of the bench was supposed to be 3 starter level players.  

Huerter was trade July 7th.

Bogi had surgery late May with at least a 3 month recovery timeline - so if he is cleared to begin on court work at the beginning of September, right around training camp.  Then of course the ramp up and conditioning required to start the season - that was optimistic. 

That was playing with fire knowing Bogi's knee injury history.

[bird_dirt]

I have zero faith that Kevin would have played as well or as many minutes in Atlanta as he did in Sacramento in Nate’s “system.”

Hawks sold high on that one, and I’m not upset about it, especially since getting Bey later. 

[AHF]

10 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

I have zero faith that Kevin would have played as well or as many minutes in Atlanta as he did in Sacramento in Nate’s “system.”

Hawks sold high on that one, and I’m not upset about it, especially since getting Bey later. 

That is definitely a fair take.  I still think he was worthy of a first round pick at the deadline even if he didn't shoot as well here as he did in Sacramento.  He was a young player with a strong track record as a shooter and had a big Game 7 performance on his resume.  I've got no problem if people are good with the return.  I just always felt like we weren't under the gun to deal him before the season started and that the return wasn't going to be much different than what we got.

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

How is it hindsight bias when many of us said it immediately after the trade happened?  I am recognizing how things played out today but I said basically the day that trade happened that I felt like it was too early to do it.  That is the opposite of hindsight bias.

OK, well what do you think would have happened if we kept Huerter?  

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

OK, well what do you think would have happened if we kept Huerter?  

Based on  how he played this year, I think that he would have shot pretty well, we would have been much stronger for the first 1/2 of the season, and we would have had a nice range of offers to unload him for that sweet, sweet cap relief and pick but if we were showing ourselves to be legit contenders we could have kept him and gone for it like actual contenders do.  But if I'm handicapping what would have happened in this hypothetical, I think we are better but not true contenders and he gets traded with most everything else playing out much the same way.  So it is less about where we are today and more about whether it would have been smarter to retain flexibility and the possibility of being the best version of the Hawks this season.  (From the moment that trade happened, you knew it actively made us worse for this season and was done primarily to avoid the tax.)

[Final_quest]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

 (From the moment that trade happened, you knew it actively made us worse for this season and was done primarily to avoid the tax.)

With the addition of Murray we were supposed to be a lot better.  Let's say Huerter was still on the team today.  Don't you think people would be suggesting we should make a trade because we can't even play a lottery talent like AJ with two strong backups in Huerter and Bogi?   

Even though some people seem like they want an emotional win out of knowing we are paying a luxury tax.  The actual team would still be overstocked at Huerter's position.  Keeping Huerter and going into the tax would have been a hollow victory. 

I would say one thing our team has done well recently is moving assets when we can still get value for them.  The Cam move was brilliant.  Then trading the Charlotte pick before it turned into an established fake first.  Trading Gallo at the last minute.  I think we are gonna move Capela next and it will be similar, right before everyone sees he is on the decline.  

[macdaddy]

14 hours ago, Final_quest said:

I would say one thing our team has done well recently is moving assets when we can still get value for them.  The Cam move was brilliant.  Then trading the Charlotte pick before it turned into an established fake first.  Trading Gallo at the last minute.  I think we are gonna move Capela next and it will be similar, right before everyone sees he is on the decline.  

Great point.  I'd say though that with Kev we actually lost a solid young rotation player on a good contract.  And we haven't made a move like that in the Trae Young era.   These other moves were great deals for us but we also didn't give up anything in the process. 

[Final_quest]

2 hours ago, macdaddy said:

Great point.  I'd say though that with Kev we actually lost a solid young rotation player on a good contract.  And we haven't made a move like that in the Trae Young era.   These other moves were great deals for us but we also didn't give up anything in the process. 

Huerter is the best asset we've traded, apart from our picks in the Murray trade.  If we were to keep him, we would have Bogi, Huerter, and AJ.  They all deserve minutes.  Then you have two salaries with Bogi and Huerter at the same position that total like $32M.  How do you resolve this with Huerter on the roster?