Well, is it finally time for a changing of the guard or not?

Not “guard,” as in "a member of the Hawks’ backcourt." That can wait, at least until Thursday afternoon.

Ever since Dwight Howard started getting all wishy-washy about his stay in the Magic Kingdom a couple seasons ago, the Hawks have comfortably held the role of the Atlanta Also-Rans: the second-best team, essentially by default, in the NBA’s Southeast Division.

There are two teams that would kill for that undistinguished designation right now. The Charlotte Bobcats have reached the postseason just once in their history, but sit in the 8^th seed, just two games behind Atlanta (25-27). The second squad is tonight’s opponent for the Hawks, the Washington Wizards (7:30 PM Eastern, SportSouth, CSN Washington), who haven’t finished a season in that spot since the salad days of Gil Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison.

Despite having dropped three straight games and five of their last six, the Wiz (25-28) get a chance to earn the red ribbon by breaking another Hawks Hex and winning their first game at Philips Arena in twelve tries. It’s a losing string that goes back as far as their last win in Atlanta in November 2008, when DeShawn Stevenson stepped up for an injured Agent Zero to upend the Hawks in overtime.

Back in December, Trevor Booker (24 points and 14 rebounds) led a fourth-quarter charge to lug the Wizards into overtime, despite the absence of Bradley Beal and a bad shooting night (6-for-22) by John Wall. Inbounder extraordinaire Pero Antić brought his A-game in the extra frame, lobbing a pass across the court to Al Horford for the game-winning ten-foot jumper.

No one is hungrier to seize the tarnished silver medal than former Hawks player and current Wizards Head Coach Randy Wittman, the victim of his own insufferable temper as he got T’d up and tossed while protesting a fourth-quarter charge call in Washington’s 103-93 home loss to Toronto last night. Like the Hawks against the Pacers, Washington was listless in the first quarter, falling behind by as many as 17 points to the Raptors, before scrambling late to make the final score respectable.

Wittman’s been at his wit’s end for three seasons trying to get a modicum of job security, and a strong finish leading to a postseason berth could accomplish that. There are three Southeast teams angling for a playoff spot without any shot at a division title, and finishing second in this division greatly enhances the likelihood of opening the first round against a team like the Raptors or Bulls, instead of the HEAT or Pacers. A conference semifinal trip would likely mean Wittman finally earns himself a full 2014-15 season without teetering on the edge of a pink slip.

All-Star Weekend was kind to both franchises. Paul Millsap, Dominqiue Wilkins, Pero Antić each got to watch their teams win their contests, Harry the Hawk got to feast on Kevin Hart, and fans around the world discovered that Sir Foster’s crunk classics blaring on an organ aren’t so corny when they serve as background to quality on-floor talent. Meanwhile, Wall vaulted over his headbanded mascot (I think that was really Al Harrington in there) and was awkwardly handed the Slam Dunk Contest trophy, while Beal made a final-rack run to send Nelly into St. Lunacy and force an extra session with Marco Belinelli in the Three-Point Contest.

The weekend festivities were a coronation of sorts for Wall (career-high per-game averages of 19.8 points, 8.5 assists, and 2.1 steals), now the top all-around point guard in the East, pairing with Beal (career-high 16.9 PPG, 2.0 three-pointers per game, 3.4 assists per game) to form what has become the top backcourt in the Southeast. It remains vexing, however, that Wittman can’t seem to get these two playing well at the same time for any stretch. Wall still struggles with his outside shot (32.1 3FG%; 35.8 2FG% outside the paint), and Beal is the only Top 100 NBA scorer who shoots worse from within the three-point arc (40.4 2FG%) than outside it (42.7 3FG%). It's like chocolate and peanut butter that can't form a Reese's.

The duo has scored 20+ points in the same game just once all season, back in mid-December. In 12 games where Beal exceeded 20 points, albeit largely on dishes from Wall and Trevor Ariza, Wall’s scoring average dipped to 14.6 while he shot a mere 33.9% from the field. To make waves in the postseason, the Wizards’ backcourt shotgun cannot be firing off one barrel at a time.

Wittman is also carefully monitoring the floortime for his most efficient two-way big man. Nene is scoring 16.0 points per game in February after getting shelved in mid-December (and brought off the bench for nearly a month after) to deal with a host of calf, Achilles, and foot injuries. If the Brazilian misses extensive time on the back end of their playoff push, the Wizards, and by extension Wittman, are likely sunk.

The Polish Hammer, Marcin Gortat, provided 18 points and 11 boards against the Raps but has been fairly inconsistent. As the trade deadline approaches, nary a GM is clamoring for the cluster of disappointing draftees in the Wizards’ stead (Trevor Booker, Otto Porter, Jr., Kevin Seraphin, Jan Vesely). In the 30 games since dropping 24 on the Hawks, Booker has not scored more than 13 in any game, his rebounding and scoring way down after Nene returned full-time.

GM Ernie Grunfeld is in the final year of his own contract, and could really use a phone call to arrange a deal that bolsters D.C.’s front line. One target might be Dunwoody’s Chris Singleton, who is playing a little more efficiently in his third season but hopelessly buried at the 3-spot behind Ariza, Martell Webster and Otto Porter.

To avoid losing seven straight games for the first time since March-April 2007, the Hawks must out-produce the Wizards along the corner-three zones. The Hawks top the East with 7.1 corner-three attempts per game (40.8 corner 3FG%, 4^th in NBA), and the Wizards are right behind them at 6.8 per game (39.7 corner 3FG%, 9^th in NBA). Ariza (46.2%), Webster (45.5%), and Beal (43.7%) are the obvious culprits in this area for the Wizards, as are Korver (47.6%) and Lou Williams (45.5%) for Atlanta.

Korver will again be stretched thin defensively if DeMarre Carroll (hamstring) remains unavailable, but he, LouWill and Paul Millsap must disrupt kick-outs and make perimeter shots tough on the Wizard wings without foolishly fouling.

Millsap must avoid foul trouble and dominate the forward matchup with Nene, working his way around Gortat to get to the rim. Elton Brand must avoid foul problems as well, especially with Gustavo Ayón and Pero Antić out of action.

Meanwhile, dunk champ Wall must be rendered a jump-shooter. Wall shoots 62.7 FG% in the front half of the painted area, and 40.6% on the right side above-the-break on threes, but just 32.6% anywhere else on the floor.

According to SportVu stats, Jeff Teague (5.2 PPG) actually outscores Wall (4.0 PPG) on drives to the basket, but only a handful of NBA players with similar production shoot a worse percentage than Teague on drives (40.7 FG%). Teague has to take advantage when Gortat gets occupied elsewhere on the floor.

Go Hawks!

~lw3