This is a pretty big game. For the Boston Celtics.

Even Aaron Hernandez has shown more fight of late than the Celtics, losers of their last five games with no victories over playoff contenders since January 22. Now a solid 12-seed in the putrid Eastern Conference, the Celts already have one foot firmly established in the water for the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery.

To make it a double, though, they need BOTH the Brooklyn Nets and tonight’s opponent, the Atlanta Hawks, to suck hard enough to fall out of the playoffs. It’s a hard sell given the firewall the Knicks, Cavs, and Pistons are putting up, but 8-seed Atlanta (one win in their last 10 games) is doing all it can to make the prospect tantalizing. The Hawks are kicking off their six-game road-trip tonight, while the Nets are in the tougher back-end of their seven-game tour.

Boston (19-39) blew their last three chances to control that destiny, including a blown fourth-quarter lead against the Hawks on December 31, yet they get another shot at engendering double-lotto-ball euphoria tonight at TD Garden (7:30 Eastern, SportSouth, CSN New England).

Like Atlanta (26-30), who is without Paul Millsap (season-highs of 34 points and 15 rebounds vs. Boston on Dec. 31) Boston will likely be shorthanded on the floor. Starting forward Jared Sullinger (15.3 PPG, 10.9 RPG in February) has been Head Coach Brad Stevens’ best play over the past month but is recovering from a mild concussion sustained last Friday. Sully is the team’s third-leading scorer, and the second-leading scorer, guard Avery Bradley, remains out as he deals with an ankle sprain.

That leaves Rajon Rondo (10.8 PPG, 7.8 APG), back from his own year-long hiatus after an ACL tear, leading a starting lineup that would make you wonder if Billy Knight recently moved to New England.

Gerald Wallace (season-highs of 7.0 PPG and 4.1 RPG in February) cannot look any more like a broken man than he has lately, yet Crash (58.9 2FG%, 29.7 3FG%) was recently shifted to the starting shooting guard slot, making room for former reality star Kris Humphries to play center. There’s no chance for a buyout since Wallace is still owed $20.2 million from somebody over the next two seasons after this one. He'll get a bit of a break tonight as Stevens will go with former Grizzlie Jerryd Bayless, his first Celtics start after logging 30 minutes and putting up 13 and 16 points in his past two games.

Essentially, the idea by Stevens is to establish a Pick-and-Pop Festival for the newly-28-year-old Rondo, who needs a big night to help the media get over Birthdaygate. With Wallace dispatched back to the bench, the forward slots go to leading scorer Jeff Green (22.0 PPG, 38.6 FG% post-All-Star-break) and Brandon Bass. Rookie Kelly Olynyk (21 points and 5 assists vs. Atlanta on New Year’s Eve; 21 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists vs. Utah on Monday) usually joins the party off the bench, but he's out with a sprained toe. On defense, Jeff Teague and the forwards will be busy trying to disrupt Rondo's efficiency with the Pick-and-Pop execution.

It’s a nice approximation of what Rondo had back in the glory days alongside Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. After all, he’s managed six double-digit assist tallies in six of his last seven games, four of those games a double-double. He’d have many more if his teammate’s shots fell through the nets nearly as proficiently as their Celtic forebears’ did.

Boston’s 43.4 team FG% is the fourth-worst in the league, and the 32.6 3FG% is the third-worst. Only Madison Rising and Don King have been as cringe-inducing as the Celtics offense whenever Phil Pressey (28.4 FG%) subs in for Rondo. So their chances for winning on their parquet floor rest heavily on Humphries, Bass, Green, and Wallace’s collective ability to crash the boards when shots go up. The Celtics have a 3-22 record when their total rebounding percentage drops to 49% or below, 16-17 otherwise.

The Hawks will want to shoo Boston out of the corners, where the Celtics shoot 40.7 3FG% (3^rd highest in NBA… watch out for Chris Johnson) on the season, and lay off them above-the-break (30.4 3FG%, 2^nd lowest in NBA), where no player aside from Rondo shoots above 35%. Atlanta needs to be more careful with the shooing aspect, though. Were it not for the epidemic of fouling three-point shooters, Atlanta might lead the league in fewest free throw shots allowed per field goal attempt (24.7% opponent free throw attempt rate; 5^th lowest in NBA).

Tonight’s game concludes a run of six back-to-back games in the past month for the Hawks, including four pairs in a row. Atlanta will get a chance to rest and reload for a few days before the heavier part of their road trip (at Phoenix, Portland, Golden State, the Clippers, and Utah) kicks in. Their 9-19 road record is already worse than that of Detroit (10-15) and the Knicks (9-17), so a win tonight on the heels of the close-call versus Chicago could build some positive vibes going into that road trip.

With Millsap unavailable to repeat his Lewis Scott impersonation at the Garden, the heavy rebounding duties fall once again on the venerable Elton Brand and the Hawks’ forwards (DeMarre Carroll, Kyle Korver, Mike Scott). Also look for more floor time allocated to Dexter Pittman (3 offensive rebounds in under 2.5 minutes last night vs. the Bulls) and Cartier Martin, who only logged 2.5 minutes last night.

"Rondo. Everybody says I play like Rondo." Dennis Schröder has heard that for much of his hoops-playing life. He was a DNP-CD yesterday but would greatly relish an opportunity to get some run against one of his perceived mentors. Either way, Schröder would match up favorably with anyone else Stevens trots out to run point, as would Stevens' former star at Butler, Shelvin Mack (17 points, 7-for-9 on 2FGs vs. Chicago), who will start the game alongside Teague at the 2-spot.

Go Hawks!

~lw3