The Atlanta Hawks took two out of three games in their series with the Indiana Pacers (8:00 PM Eastern, SportSouth, NBATV). After having the Pacers on the ropes with minutes to go in Game 4, Atlanta now has to take two out of three games again. With a third road victory this month at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, the Hawks can earn a chance to close out a momentous playoffs upset in front of their home fans.

Paul Millsap (21.8 PPG, postseason-high 29 points in Game 4) has matched Indiana star Paul George point-for-point in this series. Being the team’s primary rebounder, he must be more judicious in his commission of personal fouls. His fourth foul, early in the third quarter with Atlanta up by nine, was a significant turning point in Game 4. Millsap amassed three total fouls in Atlanta’s two victories, and nine in their two defeats.

The Hawks (Millsap, and Mike Scott in particular) will have to continue putting pressure on David West to make stops on defense. He’s been whistled for just one personal foul in his last two games after settling for short stints due to foul trouble in Indiana. West shot 7-for-13 in both games in Atlanta, including the dagger three-pointer (just his fifth all season) in the closing minutes of the game. He also contributed three steals and two blocks in Game 4.

Also critical to the Hawks’ fate is the aggressiveness of Jeff Teague. In the Atlanta games, with George switching onto him more steadily, Teague became more of a passer, but was less effective as a finisher (12-for-35 combined shooting in Games 3 and 4). He’ll need to be more assertive in getting touches on halfcourt sets, initating the ball movement and resetting the offense when plays break down. He can get by George and make good things happen, but when he kicks the ball out his teammates must convert on their shots so Indiana will spread out some more.

Teague must also bounce back with a stronger defensive effort against George Hill (team-leading 58.3 2FG% this series), who bounced back from a 1-for-11 night in Game 3 to shoot 5-for-8 for the third time in this series, including his first two three-pointers of the playoffs and a layup in the final minute of Game 4. Continuing through the playoffs, this season the Hawks are 31-3 when Teague posted a plus-minus differential of +6 or higher, and 1-28 when his plus-minus was -5 or worse.

Teague and the Hawks’ small guards ought to create better looks for DeMarre Carroll (10-for-15 shooting in Atlanta’s two wins, 3-for-11 in their two losses), who ought to be collecting hazard pay trying to keep George (40.5 2FG% this series, down from 45.6% regular season) in check for most of the game.

While Roy Hibbert has been the center of attention in this series, the Hawks are getting little value out of Pero Antić as a starter. Now shooting 3-for-17 from beyond the perimeter and 3-for-10 within, he’s added just two assists and one block while averaging over 25 minutes per game. Negligible activity from the center spot hurts the Hawks more than it does the Pacers, who are now free to double-team Millsap and Teague or give extra help chasing Korver. The Pacers were able to climb back at the end without needing a single fourth-quarter contribution from Hibbert.

Meanwhile, Elton Brand is getting even less floor time (15.3 MPG) than he did during the regular season (19.4 MPG). While his patented shot from the elbows hasn’t fallen so far (2-for-10 FGs), he continues to be a sound shotblocker and a rebounder on both ends. It is certainly time to ramp up his contribution, relative to Antić’s, if the Hawks desire to close this series out quickly.

Indiana’s ability to tighten up the interior defense has resulted in a precipitous decline in Atlanta’s effectiveness inside the perimeter (47.8 2FG% in Game 1, 42.0% in Game 2, 41.0% Game 3, 35.8% in Game 4). With no centers to draw the Pacers attention, Indiana sat back and swatted 11 shots in Game 4, one more than the prior three games combined. The Hawks’ top four reserves (Lou Williams, Scott, Brand, and Mack) have been particularly anemic (32.6 FG% in this series).

On the other end, Atlanta gambled vigorously on defense in Game 4 (series-high 8 steals, including 4 thefts by Williams) but could not create sufficient defensive pressure (series-low 10 Indiana turnovers). With Indy shooting just 14-of-43 from three-point range in the last two games, Atlanta can afford to keep their post players around the paint, increasing the likelihood of unforced errors from clock-hogging Indiana like charges and offensive three-second violations.

Go Hawks!

~lw3