((DISCLAIMER: Two words. “SAMPLE SIZE!”))

Is today the day the Student finally becomes the Teacher?

Mike Budenholzer is 0-for-2 against his former head honcho, having left a probable coach-in-waiting gig with tonight’s opponent, the San Antonio Spurs (8:30 PM Eastern, SportSouth, Fox Sports Southwest) to pursue a coach-right-now opportunity with the Atlanta Hawks.

Last season, Gregg Popovich successfully set out to show he can earn rings and gold balls either with or without his former next-in-command. But after coming away victorious after the last dress rehearsal at AT&T Center, Coach Bud hopes to come away with the Hawks’ first regular-season triumph in San An in over 17 years, going back to when Dominique Wilkins played for the Spurs. While still trying to get its sea legs, Atlanta nearly pulled it off last season. Alas, Bud’s evil scheme was foiled by Punisher-superfan Tim Duncan’s 16-foot jumper at the close of last December’s 102-100 nail-biter.

If you think the Hawks (1-1) are all rested up, with three days off between games, imagine how anxious Grouchy Gregg and his defending champion Spurs (1-1) are, having not played since losing in Phoenix on Friday night. “A pain in the neck,” Popovich described an early schedule layover that most NBA teams would kill for. A five-game-in-seven-day stretch, beginning with tonight’s affair against Atlanta, is a literal hangnail as far as Coach Pop is concerned.

The time off has granted Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard additional time to recuperate from an eye infection, and given center Tiago Splitter time to return after missing the preseason with a calf strain. Having both dressed will make it possible for the Spurs to sink their teeth into opposing offensive schemes, as is their custom.

Marco Belinelli, Matt Bonner and Austin Daye were thrust into the starting lineup during their initial two games, plus Aron Baynes got additional playing time. Leonard’s (Game 1) and Splitter’s absences became evident by way of porous defense in the paint (76.3 restricted-area FGs per 100 possessions, 3^rd most in NBA) and on the more palatable mid-range twos (8.5 opponent FGs and 47.2 opponent FG%, NBA-high through 2 games). Tim Duncan and catalyst-français Boris Diaw have done the best they could to stop their fellow bigs, but the Spurs have been caught in the fourth quarter trying to hold the fort against penetrating guards like Isaiah Thomas, Monta Ellis and even Devin Harris.

The wide-wingspanned Leonard did not manage to grab a contract extension in the offseason, but that should work out fine, as another strong season should lead to a hefty restricted-free-agency payday next summer. A reigning All-Defensive second-team member, Kawhi will be around to help Danny Green try and cool off Kyle Korver, who had to wait until the fourth quarter against the Pacers to get back to dive-bombing the basket. Leonard, Green, and Manu Ginobili were a combined 1-for-15 shooting on Friday against a Phoenix team (two steals the whole game) that wasn’t trying too all that hard to make stops. A return to defensive intensity around the perimeter is paramount for the Spurs, especially if this trio remains offensively tepid.

Korver will be ready-to-go tonight, after an undisclosed illness kept him out of practice until Tuesday. But even if he’s not feeling 100%, Atlanta may hardly skip a beat on the offensive end if Mike Scott gets his touches. Scott and Korver momentarily rank first (95.8%) and second (95.3%) in the NBA in effective field goal percentage (minimum 15 minutes played), the duo trading places in the league rankings for total shooting percentage.

In a battle among two of the NBA’s most traditional point guards (JUST KIDDING! WHAT’S UP, Y’ALL? LOL), Jeff Teague can open things up even more for his sharpshooters by getting around Tony Parker and actually converting on occasion amidst the trees in the lane, drawing defenders instead of just rebounders. As @TheFuzz, @macdaddy, et al., aptly alluded to in the pre-pregame thread, Jeff and Tony are both among the league’s top-8 driving guards, but the senior Parker distinguishes himself by shooting 62.5 FG% on his drives this season, compared to Teague’s 33.2 FG%. Teague has made 7 of his 17 shots inside the restricted area through the first two games, but 8 of his 9 field goal attempts outside the restricted area, including a pair of mid-range gems late in the fourth quarter to put the Pacers to bed on Saturday.

Buoyed largely by the dynamic catch-and-shoot duo of Korver and Scott, the Hawks are presently behind only Dallas (52.4%) for field goal percentage (50.3 team FG%). The Spurs escaped their banner-dropping season-opener against those Mavs with a 101-100 victory on a last-minute three-pointer by Parker.

Meanwhile, only Golden State (39.5%) has had better fortune than Atlanta at keeping opponents dissatisfied at the other end of the floor (39.8 opponent FG%). So, why haven’t the Hawks looked like world-beaters thus far? With all the missed shots they’re engendering, they’re not securing defensive rebounds as they should (29.0 opponent O-Reb%, 6^th highest in NBA), despite Al Horford’s best efforts (81.0 rebounds per 100 chances, highest among starting centers). Paul Millsap (36.1% of rebounding chances, lowest among NBA players with double-digit chances) has to pick up the slack on the defensive end when Al sits, while Pero Antić and Elton Brand must make their limited minutes count.

Also, the Hawks are leaving 8.0 PPG on the table at the free throw line (68.0 team FT%, 4^th worst in NBA), despite Jeff Teague’s best efforts (13-for-14 FTs; 10-for-10 vs. Indiana). It’s not helping that their opponents’ 83.3 FT% ranks second only to the foes of the Spurs (84.0 opponent FT%). Atlanta’s whiffed freebies can turn games where they should be cruising into nail-biters, leaving otherwise benign teams like the Pacers within Chris-Copeland-shooting-distance of the lead. Millsap (6-for-13 FTs) is again the team’s biggest offender, but Horford (just two free throw attempts in two games) and the team’s more accurate shooters have to pursue forays inside the paint and draw contact.

No, a loss tonight to Budenholzer’s Hawks won’t make Popovich happy. But then again, whatever does, really?

Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3