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Hawks - Grizzlies


lethalweapon3

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“I’d appreciate if you’d sign it, ‘To my biggest fan! With love, Pau’…”

What happens when you and your supervisor Swipe Right on one another? Or on the same person? Or when said person turns out to be the boss’ significant other? Hawkward!

Many a dilemma may be faced among participants during Tinder Night, as well as Bring Your “Boss” Night, at Philips Arena. But the odds are good that, someday, there will be a lovely story to share when lil’ Kyle Jeffrey Something-or-Other asks Mommy and Daddy how they first met.

While hundreds of attendees will be carpal-tunneling their thumbs swiping away on their IPhones in search of their Tinderonis, the Atlanta Hawks are on the prowl for their sixth-consecutive victory tonight, against the Memphis Grizzlies (7:30 PM Eastern, SportSouth in ATL, Fox Sports South in MEM). The Hawks have shocked the world in many ways lately, perhaps none more so than the way they’ve been bossing around the Western Conference. They’re going for their ninth-consecutive victory against a Western team tonight, and if that’s not some kind of team record (discounting the “Western Division” days of the ‘60s), it ought to be pretty close.

While the Hawks were the NBA love story in December, albeit largely unrequited until January, the Grizzlies (25-9) were that in November, sprinting out to a magnificent 15-2 start under coach Dave Joerger, like Atlanta’s Mike Budenholzer in his second season at the helm. They’ve been a seesawing 10-7 in the weeks thereafter, a five-game streak loaded with overtime victories followed by a four-game skid, followed by a 4-1 stretch marred only by a 29-point defeat in last Saturday in Denver. They come into Atlanta today after a Monday walkthrough with whatever’s left of the New York Knicks.

Memphis’ defensive intensity has slipped, from 97.8 opponent points per 100 possessions through November 30 to 106.0 since. SB Nation’s Grizzly Bear Blues notes in their game preview that much of the slippage can be traced to playing better perimeter-shooting teams. Opponents shot 33.1% from deep (8th-lowest in NBA) through November and 39.0% (3rd-highest in NBA) during the games in December and January. So Tony Allen and Courtney Lee, both in the starting lineup, will have their hands full with Kyle Korver and former Grizzlie rookie and fan fave DeMarre Carroll.

Memphis lives up to their “Grindhouse” name by toiling away in crowded spaces around the rim, their 47.1 in-the-paint PPG second only to New Orleans. Just 18.9 percent of their shots have been three-point attempts (3rd-fewest in NBA).

That gritty philosophy, however, does not translate into trips to the free throw line for opponents. Coupled with a low pace-of-play, Grizzlie opponents get just 20.8 free throw attempts per game (3rd-fewest in NBA).

Led by the strong court awareness of Mike Conley, the Grizzlies (13.1 TO%, 5th-lowest in NBA) give up a league-low 13.2 PPG off turnovers to opponents. Their assist-turnover ratio of 1.82 ranks third in the league and is just ahead of Atlanta’s 1.75. Conley will control the offensive set until something opens up inside, or if Gasol gets open from mid-range. If worse comes to worse, he has become a pretty good long-range sniper himself (44.2 3FG%, 8th in NBA).

With Conley, Allen, Lee, and even Vince Carter, Memphis has waves of backcourt defenders able to provide pressure on ballhandlers and disrupting the setup of opponents’ halfcourt plays. Jeff Teague and mayonnaise lover Dennis Schröder must avoid turning the ball over in large volumes.

With New Yorkers tuning out on hoops altogether, can we go ahead and relocate the All-Star Game to the Gasol family driveway? If voters have their way, Marc and his elder brother Pau are all but certain to face off in February as ASG starting centers. And Marc certainly deserves the fan love after a torrid run through mid-December that placed him squarely in the middle of MVP-contender discussions. Big Spain has transformed from a mere catalyst to putting the offense squarely on his back (team-high and career-high 26.4% usage rate), pushing the 20 PPG barrier after six seasons without surpassing 15 PPG.

Like many a Tinder user, the Grizz don’t allow for a second chance to make a first impression. Only the Pacers allow more second chance points than Memphis (11.1 PPG). While Tinder may disagree, opposites attract, and the Hawks are on the other end of the spectrum (14.8 opponent second-chance PPG, 2nd in NBA). 2012-13’s defensive player of the year has slipped a little with his defensive edge, particularly without Zach Randolph (knee) available. He remains a crafty passer (1.5 assist-turnover ratio), although not quite as slick as Atlanta’s Al Horford, whose 2.2 ratio ranks 1st among NBA starting centers.

Gasol will further cement his MVP footing if he can help figure out the defensive riddle at least until Randolph (11.4 RPG, 6th in NBA), who is expected to miss tonight’s action, returns. Memphis has plugged in Jon Leuer and birthday-boy rookie Jarnell Stokes at turns in the starting lineup in place of Z-Bo, but Tayshaun Prince played well in New York and may get his spot back. Either way, the Memphis frontline will have to find someone capable of slowing Paul Millsap, who has scored 20+ points in four of his last six games, particularly keeping him from making hay at the free throw line.

Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3

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