Atlanta Hawks fans look forward to a dry, fully-functional Friday night at the Highlight Factory, as the home team squares off with the Orlando Magic (7:30 PM Eastern, SportSouth, FoxSports Florida) on the first night of a Floridian-flavored back-to-back series this weekend. If things aren’t exactly “dry” in the arena tonight, that’s only because it’s the Hawks’ annual “Hoops ‘n Hops Night,” a cavalcade of local craft brews on display for thirsty adult fans.

Orlando (19-40) arrives tonight having won three of their last four games. They were just 45 seconds away from a frothy four-game streak (their first since 2012) on Wednesday before they squandered an eight-point lead. The Magic were foiled in the closing seconds by a game-tying triple from Miami’s Henry “Don’t Call Me Bill” Walker, before falling short in overtime.

It often seems to go that you don’t know what you’ve got ‘til you ditch Vaughn. Amid his third season in The City Beautiful, Frère Jacque struggled to keep his sleepy Magic team above water. While expectations of postseason glory were still reasonably tempered coming into this season, there was a lingering sense that several young prospects were not contributing and/or not developing quickly enough under Vaughn’s guidance.

A 2012 first-rounder, Andrew Nicholson’s playing time and confidence has dwindled from one season to the next. Former D-League star Dewayne Dedmon showed promise in Golden State and Philly, but his playing status was Dedmon Walking on most nights in Orlando. 2012 second-rounder Kyle O’Quinn, a floor stretching forward with defensive aptitude, has been getting yo-yoed in and out of the starting lineup as Vaughn favored the veteran Channing Frye. Vaughn couldn’t be more heartless to Mo Harkless, cutting the former starter’s playing time nearly in half after he fell out of favor.

The Magic turned to another acorn off the Spurs’ family tree, Orlando assistant James Borrego, who huddled with Mike Budenholzer for seven years in San Antonio. In 2010, Gregg Popovich replaced Borrego with the recently-retired Vaughn after the former left to join another Spurs alum, Monty Williams, in New Orleans. Then, Borrego jumped to Central Florida to assist Vaughn, after the latter took the helm with the Magic in 2012.

Like most NBA coaches these days, Borrego preaches that only players who commit to playing sound team defense will get to consistently see the floor. But unlike most teams, the Magicians are indeed practicing what he’s preaching. Orlando gave up 100+ points to opponents to 14 consecutive opponents, including a ten-game losing stretch, until Vaughn got canned. Conversely, the Magic have yet to yield triple-digits to any opponents in the seven games since Borrego took over.

While they haven’t faced a Murderer’s Row, two of those Magic opponents were the Bulls and Wizards, while two games in this latest stretch included overtime. Only the Raptors (96.3 opponent points per 100 possessions) have posted a better defensive efficiency rating than the Magic (96.5) since Borrego took over.

Borrego has also slowed things down for his mostly young charges, simplifying the halfcourt execution on offense, demanding greater pressure on ballhandlers and swifter transition on defense. The reduced pace (NBA-low 92.5 possessions per-48 since February 6) has allowed the Magic to raise their competitiveness level. So far, they’ve averaged 1.2 more points per game than their opponents under Barrego, the net scoring at minus-6.4 PPG under his predecessor this season. Orlando’s 9.8 opponent fastbreak PPG this month is an NBA-low.

Magic fans and management look on enviously at the strides being made by mid-tier NBA draftees like the Hawks’ Dennis Schröder, who had another productive night (17 points, 3-for-5 3FGs, four assists and one turnover) in a win over Dallas on Wednesday. Still, it hasn’t exactly been the old-fogies (Frye, Willie Green, Ben Gordon, Luke Ridnour) running the show in O-Town, especially lately.

Aside from DeMarcus Cousins, fourth-year center Nikola Vucevic is the top talent among NBA teams certain to be watching the playoffs from home. His monstrous play (34 double-doubles, tied-2^nd in NBA with Cousins; 16^th in NBA scoring, 7^th in NBA rebounding) had him on the periphery of an All-Star nod, especially before the mid-January losing skid commenced. Vooch’s 18 points and 11 rebounds made a huge difference between the Magic’s wild last-second victory over the Hawks on December 13 and a six-point loss in Atlanta when he sat out with back spasms the night before.

He’s no shot blocker like Dedmon or O’Quinn, but Vucevic is doing a better job of altering shots in the paint. With help from his fellow big men, Orlando is doing a better job of enforcing the interior lately, opponents scoring just 33.3 PPG this month in-the-paint (the Magic outscoring foes by 14.0 PPG) and a measly 8.7 PPG (2^nd-lowest in NBA) on second-chances. Al Horford, Paul Millsap, and Mike Scott’s shooting from mid- to long-range will be needed to soften up the Magic defense tonight. The trio shot 7-for-12 against shorthanded Dallas outside the paint on Wednesday.

The second-overall draft pick from 2013, Victor Oladipo (16.6 PPG) hasn’t found his range (32.4 FG% on jumpers, 19.6 3FG% in his last 15 games), a crucial component of his game if he is to become a long term backcourt mate alongside rookie Elfrid Payton. But he remains an effective slasher and cutter, and a crowd-pleasing highlight film on the break. He also grabbed a career-high 13 rebounds against the Bosh-less heat on Wednesday.

While Orlando is keeping games close-to-the-vest, that’s not entirely good news for lotto rookie point guard Elfrid Payton (5.8 APG, leads all rookies). Opponents are resorting to the Hack-a-Elf strategy against Payton (53.4 FT%, 48.4% on the road) in the fourth quarters. However, Borrego has been unwavering on keeping Payton (27 total assists, four TOs in his past three games) in, to control the ball and keep it out of the opponents’ hands.

When it comes to the passing game, there isn’t much more choice. Just 54.5% of the Magic’s field goals this season have been assisted (27^th in NBA), a proportion that’s dropped to 51.9% (29^th in NBA) under Borrego. In the halfcourt offense, Borrego is soaking up the shot clock and turning to Payton to pick the preferential play: either Vucevic’s post-ups, Frye’s perimeter pops, or Oladipo’s and Tobias Harris’ slashes toward the hoop. On broken plays where Payton can’t get the ball back, the ball finds its way to Oladipo (7 assists, 6 TOs vs. ATL on Dec. 13) or Evan Fournier, often with wildly variable results.

Oladipo’s athletic exploits may cause DeMarre Carroll to latch onto him instead of Harris, whose 15-foot buzzer-beater eclipsed Kyle Korver’s would-be game-winner in December’s payback match. Harris (17.0 PPG; 20 points, 5 assists, 3 blocks vs. ATL on Dec. 13) has reached a comfort zone playing with his elder cousin Frye, and would be a steady offensive threat, but has been in-and-out of the lineup while dealing with a host of calf/ankle/knee injuries.

Harris is probable to play tonight despite continued knee soreness. Lotto rookie Aaron Gordon also has been saddled with foot/ankle injuries. He sprained his other ankle on Wednesday, sometime after his sneaker flew off during a drive into the paint, and will sit tonight’s game out.

Jeff Teague (24 points, 8 assists @ ORL on Dec. 13) and Schröder will be directed by Coach Bud to push the pace on the Magic, but in the Borregoball era, they will find the lanes far more clogged than in previous meetings. When they drive into the paint, their teammates have to keep moving and keep the passing lanes open.

Floaters and giant-killer shots over Vucevic and the Magic bigs may prove more effective than trying to bore through the thickets in search of layups and trips to the free throw line. Orlando does hack (NBA-high 4.3 additional personal fouls per game this month), but the Hawks’ guards must avoid drawing offensive charging fouls and taking wild shots before the whistles blow.

Korver is nowhere near as obsessed with “50/50/90” as Hawks fans watching his three-point shooting take a downturn (37.9 3FG% and 40.7 FG% this month). He sits squarely at 50% from the floor, and he’d need to go 0-for-7 from downtown for his three-point percentage to dip into the 40s. But the greatest long-term threat to 50/50/90 fame is at the charity stripe.

Kyle has not been there in the past two games and only twice in the past seven, bringing his free throw attempt output below the “Qualifying” threshhold. His teammates should look more for Korver, often freely cutting under the basket ahead of chasing defenders, for layups and and-1 opportunities. Opponents are more likely to lose Korver around the basket in the opening (52.7 FG%, 49.4 3FG%) and closing quarters (57.3 FG%, 61.5 3FG%), the times he is usually at his most dangerous beyond the arc.

If all ten men run down the court after a missed Magic shot and forget to rebound the ball, don’t blame the craft beers. Orlando (21.3 O-Reb%) is the only other NBA team that abdicates offensive rebounding as much as Atlanta (21.1 O-Reb%), although Millsap has gone on a little glass-crashing tear of late (5.3 offensive RPG post-All-Star Break, 1.7 pre-Break). The edge for much of this game will go to whichever defense effectively coaxes the opposition into settling for shots outside of their comfort zone. Usually, that’s been the Hawks (47.2 February opponent eFG%, 7^th lowest in NBA).

Golden State tapped out in Cleveland on Thursday, and lumbers into Toronto tonight. If the Warriors slip up again, the most slept-on team in the East will have a chance to re-take the NBA’s top record with a win over Orlando tonight. If the Warriors prevail, then the Hawks (45-12) have an opportunity today to widen its gap over the Eastern Conference to nine games, ahead of a quick trip to South Beach tomorrow.

Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3