Hey, Golden State Warriors! First to 60!

For some NBA teams, such challenges are associated with points in a game. For the Warriors and the Atlanta Hawks, the race is on to break the 60-wins barrier, a place neither franchise has boldly gone before. They meet tonight at Oracle Arena (10:30 PM Eastern, SportSouth in ATL, CSN Bay Area in SFO, ESPN), each team trying to get a leg up on homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs as the NBA season nears the home stretch.

The Warriors (53-13) have a tougher sled to pull. Their magic number to secure homecourt advantage through the Western Conference playoffs is down to nine, while the number to clinch the East is down to three for the Hawks (53-14). Meanwhile, 13 of Golden State’s remaining 16 games are against current Top-8 teams from either conference, compared to six of Atlanta’s remaining 15.

On the positive side for the Dubs, nine of their remaining games are here at Oracle, where the Warriors are 30-2 and haven’t lost a game in nearly two months. However, their visitors this evening have an NBA-best 23-10 road record (one less loss than the Warriors), already a franchise record with a month of basketball still to go. A road win in Oakland could also give the Hawks the edge in a tiebreaker scenario, should it become necessary. Warriors coach Steve Kerr does not wish to deal with “Does Mike Budenholzer have your number?” media questions for the next several months, so victory tonight will be of utmost importance to him.

Both teams come into this contest absent at least one key cog for their title aspirations. Klay Thompson sprained his ankle during Monday night’s nip-and-tuck victory over the Lakers, stepping on Tarik Black’s foot. While Klay played through it, the injury will have him sidelined for another week to ten days. Thompson scored a team-high 29 points in a losing effort against the Hawks in Atlanta on February 6. He also led the way against L.A., holding the fort with 12 first-quarter points until Stephen Curry’s shot got spicy (two points in the first half; 17 in the second). Curry also tweaked a wrist in the Lakers game, but is good-to-go.

Just one night before taking out Splash Brother Number Two, the Lakers’ Not-So-World Class Wrecking Crew tried to turn off the lights of the Hawks’ Kyle Korver, Jordan Hill doing his best to leave Korver’s beak looking more like Toucan Sam’s. Besides lethal sharpshooting from Thompson and Korver (3^rd and 1^st in NBA for catch-and-shoot PPG, respectively), both players log a lot of floor mileage (about 2.4 miles per game) trying to keep their respective offenses humming.

Klay’s injury is likely to bring sixth-man Andre Iguodala (6 assists off the bench vs. LAL on Monday) to the top line. Dre will be re-assessing who he can hone in on with his rugged defensive play, now that he won’t be chasing Korver (5-for-9 3FGs vs. GSW on Feb 6) through multiple screens. He will likely set his sights on Atlanta’s point guards, Jeff Teague and Dennis Schröder, who had little trouble executing the Hawks’ offense (14 combined assists, 3 turnovers) during their last meeting with the Warriors.

Golden State’s starters all rank in the NBA’s top-ten for defensive rating. If Iguodala can head off the Hawks’ point guards at the pass, or at least funnel them into defensive wizards Draymond Green (1.7 SPG, 1.3 BPG; 5 steals vs. LAL on Monday) and Andrew Bogut (NBA-best 94.2 defensive rating, min. 20 minutes/game), he’ll take pressure off of Curry (league-high 2.2 SPG) and Harrison Barnes expending their energies trying to play pick-your-poison with ex-Warrior Kent Bazemore (46.1 catch-and-shoot 3FG%) and DeMarre Carroll (1.6 catch-and-shoot threes per game, 41.4 3FG%).

Atlanta also remains without Mike Scott (17 points, 5-for-7 FGs vs. GSW on Feb. 6), whose broken toe has him out-of-action for the foreseeable future. Bench guys like Shelvin Mack (last two games: 16.0 PPG, 52.2 FG%, 42.9 3FG%) and John Jenkins must continue to keep moving and cutting in Atlanta’s halfcourt offense to get themselves open for decent shots.

Green (career-high 20 rebounds at ATL on Feb. 6) provides activity, arm-length, and awareness, allowing the Warriors to cover the whole floor defensively. Kerr even trusts the 6-foot-7 forward to play meaningful minutes at the pivot. However, Green can get excessively touchy, both on-the-court (3.3 personal fouls per game, tied-3^rd among active players; 11 technicals, tied-4^th in NBA) and off of it, as demonstrated recently by former Hawk and professional fly-in-ointment Dahntay Jones. Having Kerr preserve Green due to extracurricular activity can benefit the Hawks. Warrior opponents’ offensive rating soars from 98.2 to 105.1 when he is off the court.

Paul Millsap (21.0 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 58.1 FG% last two games), Pero Antić, and the game-rested Al Horford will try to open up the paint for their guards with a variety of screens and pick-and-pop shots. They need to be prepared to cut to the basket when Green and/or Bogut step away from the post, also to drive and collect foul shots when the Warrior bigs are drawn out to contest the Hawks’ jumpers.

On defense, the hawk-eyes of Horford (5 steals @ LAL last Saturday) and Millsap (15-game string snapped with at least one steal on Monday @ SAC) can make it hard for opponents to get anything established inside.

Despite his All-Star hardware, Curry (career-low 42.1 3FG%) has not been the most efficient long-range in-game shooter, even though he’s been much better after the All-Star Break (50.5 3FG%). When Atlanta is successful at boxing him in and getting him to settle for circus shots, the Hawks’ bigs must box out and keep his teammates from padding their stats with offensive rebounds (season-high 19 @ ATL on Feb. 6, 10 by Green) and extra-chance possessions. Those Warrior big men include Barnes, Marreese Speights and David Lee. Lee’s minutes continue to dwindle under Kerr’s watch, but he may see elongated stretches if he shows off his board-crashing acumen.

While the Warriors do many things exceptionally well, much like another G-State’s coach, they’re essentially down to one Achilles’ heel. While Golden State doesn’t turn the ball over a ton (14.6 TOs per 100 possessions, 16^th in NBA), when they do, they’re usually the result of steals (8.4 per game, 5^th in NBA), often at the hands of Curry. 13 of Golden State’s 14 turnovers in Atlanta were steals by the Hawks. Eleven of the Warriors’ 14 turnovers on Monday came by way of theft, including four of Curry’s six turnovers. Golden State raised its record to a pedestrian 4-3 whenever Steph commits six or more turnovers in a game.

Kerr has made possession-control a point of emphasis for his superstar point guard. Those errors-of-commission are not only costly for the Warriors but also for Curry (3.1 TOs per game, down from 3.9 last season), personally. His mother fines him 100 bucks, per turnover, each time he goes over three TOs in a game, giving back the same amount when he finishes under that tally.

Atlanta demonstrated in the February matchup that they could play at Golden State’s elevated pace (highest in NBA) and still beat them, the Hawks’ 59.1 effective field-goal percentage the highest the Warriors have allowed in a game all season. It was the last time Golden State played at above 100 possessions per-48 (100.8 @ ATL) and lost. Kerr seems to have slowed things down considerably since then. The Warriors exceeded that pace on thirteen occasions (out of 47) before the Hawks game; they’ve done so just twice in the 18 games that followed.

Teague (23 points @ SAC on Monday) and the Hawks’ point guard corps must strive to out-produce Curry for fastbreak buckets. While the MVP candidate Curry (6^th in NBA for PPG and APG, 5^th in true shooting percentage) does many things well, he is at his least dangerous when he is playing on his heels without the ball.

Steph’s 6.2 fastbreak PPG (2^nd in NBA) pushes the Warriors to the second in the league (20.9 PPG) in that category, but the Hawks have not been far behind lately (17.6 March fastbreak PPG, most in East). Horford, Carroll and Millsap can also assist the guards by beating their men down the floor and helping disrupt Curry’s paths toward the rim. They must avoid bailing out Curry (NBA-high 90.7 FT%) with trips to the foul line, and make him either a wild shooter, a tricky dribbler, or a wild passer.

The Warriors lead the NBA with 20.0 PPG off of turnovers, and the Hawks, again, aren’t far behind (18.3 PPG, 6^th in NBA). Whichever team executes better while pushing the pace is likely to have the upper hand in the contest. If both teams win all of their subsequent home games... after this one... the winner of this game is likely to be the host for the NBA Finals.

Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3