Elimination Practice!

It will be just about a wrap for the Phoenix Suns if they lose tonight to the Atlanta Hawks (7:30 PM Eastern, SportSouth, Fox Sports Arizona) at the Highlight Factory. The most successful regular-season franchise in NBA history without a single NBA title (55.2 Win%) will have gone five seasons without a postseason shot at championship glory. If they grant the winningest franchise in NBA history without a single championship their 2600^th victory and the franchise-record 58^th win for a season, Phoenix will have to cheer on San Antonio for a stay of execution from the Thunder.

It’s been a season in phlux for PHX. After letting a late lead to the Hawks slip away at home back on March 13, Jeff Hornacek’s crew ran off four straight wins, including impressive victories on back-to-back nights at Houston and versus Dallas. But then followed five consecutive losses, and a streak-busting 87-85 home win versus Utah (nearly blowing a 13-point second-half lead) did little to instill confidence toward a final playoff dash.

Injuries have also taken their toll as the Suns (39-38) have set down the stretch. Center Alex Len broke his schnoz against the Hawks in March and remains sidelined. Trade-deadline acquisition Brandon Knight missed that game with an ankle sprain, and will likely be shut down for the season as he tries to heal his heel. Backup guard Marcus Thornton is likely to miss tonight’s contest as he’s been recovering from a sprained toe.

Sparked by an embarrassment of riches with offensive-minded lead guards, the Suns finished below 90 points in five of 54 games prior to the All-Star Break. After wheeling and dealing to reduce the number of ballhandlers, their offense has short-circuited seven times in the past month alone, including the 96-87 loss to Atlanta on March 13.

One could almost get around those paltry numbers among the dredges of the Eastern Conference; not so much without a sound defensive strategy out West, something Phoenix hasn’t had since at least the Scotty Skiles years. The good news is since March 1, the Suns’ 99.5 defensive rating has been the 5^th best in the league. In that time, opponents have shot just 33.2 FG% in the paint outside of the restricted area (second-lowest in NBA, behind Nerlens Noel’s Sixers) and just 31.8 3FG% (6^th-lowest in NBA) above-the-break.

Unfortunately, Phoenix’s 94.3 offensive rating since March 25 has been worse than everyone, save for the Knicks, and the lack of reliable shooters has been obvious (25.9 3FG%, worst in NBA over the last ten days). While Eric Bledsoe tries to mimic Russell Westbrook to the best of his ability, only the Thunder possessed a lower assist-percentage (49.8%) in that time.

At least for now, this is definitively Bledsoe’s team, for better or worse. After he and the Suns dragged each other through a summer-long restricted free agency impasse before agreeing to a five-year, $70 million deal, it’s a little early for the hybrid guard to be experiencing a regression in production already, particularly after the trade departures of Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas.

On the season, Bledsoe’s shooting from the floor is down (33.6 FG% on jumpshots) from the half-season of his contract-year in 2013-14, and it has been markedly worse away from home (29.8 road 3FG%). His assists are up a tad from last season (career-high 27.4 assist percentage, up from 27.0), but so are his turnovers (18.2 turnover percentage, up from 17.8). Mini-LeBron is at his most effective when he’s around the rim for dunks, layups, and rebounds, and drawing foul shots (career-high 80.3 FT%). Phoenix is 12-4 when Bledsoe grabs at least 8 boards.

For the Hawks (57-19), Jeff Teague (8-for-12 FGs, eight of Atlanta’s 40 assists vs. BKN on Saturday) ought to be relentless creating havoc in the paint off screens. Teague should try to get Bledsoe into foul trouble early, given Bledsoe often struggles to heat up in the first half. The Suns are 3-12 when Bledsoe gets called for at least four personal fouls in a game, and if he sits, Hornacek will have to turn to Archie Goodwin and D-League pick-up Jerel McNeal. Teague shot just 4-for-13 back on March 13, but rang up nine assists while turning over the ball just once.

Baze and Boz! Kent Bazemore (5-for-6 FGs @ PHX) will likely have fun courtside today with new Hawks signee Lake Bozman, a kid who has shown plenty of heart. On the court, Bazemore was credited with hounding Bledsoe (7-for-12 FGs, but seven turnovers, four in the final quarter) last month as the Hawks blotted out the Suns with a 31-14 fourth quarter advantage. Starting guards Bledsoe and P.J. Tucker (12 combined TOs, 10 assists) wound up registering more turnovers than the entire Hawks team (11 team TOs) by the end of the game.

Paul Millsap led the way for the Hawks in Phoenix last month, with team-highs of 23 points, 9 rebounds, 3 blocks and 3 steals. Mike Scott’s toe had him sitting for the first time this season due to injury, but he played nine minutes Saturday during Atlanta’s resounding home win over Brooklyn after missing 11 games. While Millsap takes at least a couple games off to rest his sore shoulder, it will be interesting to see whether Scott works on his offensive play in the post against the Morris Twins, or if instead he’ll be satisfied with target practice from the perimeter.

Scott is shooting just 17.1% on treys since the All-Star Break. So while he works to get back up to speed, Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer may continue to delegate The Threegional Manager’s duties to yet another Mike. With extended minutes in his last five games, Mike Muscala has hit Plinko on five of his seven threes.

With Sap out, the Hawks will need both Muscala and Scott to fight for rebounds and make defensive stops against the Morrii (13-for-25 combined 2FGs, 40 points and 13 rebounds vs. ATL on Mar. 13), keeping the centers from having to overcompensate in rotation. Scott has just three blocks all season long, but Atlanta’s 15-2 this season when he gets at least one steal. Moose had double-digit rebounds in road losses to Charlotte and Detroit, but didn’t grab one in 19 minutes against the Nets on Saturday.

It’s safe to assume Goodwin has this game circled on his calendar. His nine second-quarter points helped the Suns take back the lead last month against the Hawks. But in the second half, he took exception to Dennis Schröder’s Pippen-esque staredown after he fell trying to stop a fastbreak jam. The brief kerfuffle drew a double-technical as the Hawks seized the momentum and left Goodwin looking at a Badloss. This Archie wants Dennis to stifle himself.

Schröder went through a full practice yesterday and returns today after missing a couple games with a toe injury. Coach Bud may reduce the animosity by keeping Dennis’ minutes limited and continuing to roll with Shelvin Mack off the bench. Mack is working his way out of a shooting slump (career-low 39.9 FG%) by going 10-for-16 and combining double-digit scoring with solid passing (11.0 PPG, 4.0 APG, 4.0 RPG, 1.5 TOs/game) in his last two appearances.

Brandan Wright has shot the ball and rebounded well in Len’s absence (67.5 FG%, 16.0 PPG and 8.5 RPG in four starts), lessening the need for Hornacek to look to Markieff (last 12 games: 17.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.4 SPG) to hold the fort in the pivot. But aside from Wright’s shotblocking as a helper, he continues to struggle staying with his man on defense.

Al Horford should find little problem getting open mid-range shots, courtesy of his guards’ forays into the Suns’ interior. But he will also want to force Wright to defend him in the post and draw trips to the free throw line. Horford has taken five free throw attempts in his past eight games. He should be well-rested after having played just 44 minutes in the previous seven days.

Oh, there you are, Gerald Green! One season after averaging a career-high 15.8 PPG, Green’s shooting, all-around play and confidence have diminished, and he has been benched with regularity by Hornacek (seven DNP-CD’s since the All-Star Break, including vs. ATL last month). On Saturday, though, he saved Phoenix’s bacon against the Jazz with his first 20+-minute game in over a month, coming off the bench and putting in most of his team-high 24 points (10-for-17 FGs) on dribble-out-the-clock isolation jumpers.

Green’s obsession with proving he’s “not just a dunker” often distracts him from focusing on the roles Hornacek desires of him on the floor. Gerald feels he has the Green-light early in the game and must jack shots (1^st quarter: 49.0 3FG%, 31.3 2FG%; 2^nd quarter: 29.7 3FG%) before he gets benched. So Green may draw Thabo Sefolosha and DeMarre Carroll early in the game to keep him cooled off.

Hawks generally don’t fly far without good wings, and Carroll has been pretty good lately. He was nominated for conference Player of the Week after averaging 17.7 PPG and shooting the lights out (72.4 FG%, 50.0 3FG%), including his 20-8-5 tally against the Nets where he sunk 4-of-5 from downtown while helping to keep Joe Johnson a non-factor. The Hawks’ spacing has made it difficult for opponents to figure out what to do around the perimeter with JYD, who has mastered his runner off drives to the paint. Carroll’s shooting 55.8 FG% in-the-paint and 47.7% on jumpers up to ten feet from the rim.

Whichever of Kyle Korver (6-for-9 3FGs in his last two games) or Carroll that isn’t hounded by Tucker should have a field day getting open shots, especially if Markieff can’t sag off of Muscala or Scott to help. Korver will want to help on the interior with the defensive rebounding to keep the Suns to one-and-done possessions. Atlanta is 22-1 (the one loss being to Boston’s Evan Turner at the buzzer) when Kyle gets at least five defensive boards; they’re 34-4 when he gets at least four.

The road to a championship involves finishing off teams whose backs are to the wall, taking opponents’ must-win games and turning them into losses. Today and tomorrow, the Hawks will benefit from the practice of taking on teams like the Suns and Nets and doing their part to conclude their seasons earlier than they'd like.

Win One for Lake! And Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3