Oh. It’s You.

Pardon us Atlanta Hawks fans for not trumpeting the arrival of your Brooklyn Nets, Joe Johnson, just in time for Game 1 in this opening round of the NBA Playoffs, here at the Highlight Factory (5:30 PM Eastern: GET DOWNTOWN EARLY!, SportSouth, TNT, YES Network). We trust you can find your own way back to the floor.

Most Hawks fans were hoping Joe and his underwhelming supporting cast would be watching the playoffs from the comfort of their own brownstones. But now that these guys are here, the top-seeded Hawks might as well make them useful.

Joe Johnson has been money… but not always in a good way. The highest-paid active NBA player has become an afterthought in NBA circles yet, conspicuously, ol’ Josephat seems fine with that. Johnson’s scoring contribution (14.4 PPG) is his lowest in 2003, and it has declined even more (12.6 PPG, 43.4 FG%) since the All-Star Break (10.8 PPG, 41.6 FG% in April). The only factor that has been on an uptick has been his rebounding, and that’s only because Nets coach Lionel Hollins insisted on using Joe as spackel for the mid-season hole they created at power forward.

His presence on the Philips Arena floor today serves as a reminder of what the Hawks were doomed to become in perpetuity, prior to Danny Ferry’s summertime heroics in 2012. We’ll never know for sure whether Jeff Teague and Al Horford would ever reach new heights, individually and collectively, in Atlanta, running into similar season-ending outcomes three seasons in a row while joining Hawks fans as spectators for Joe Johnson’s Dribblympics. But we have a sense that we know the answer.

Still, some of the highest decibel-readings ever recorded at Thrillips involved Joe lofting a dagger jumpshot as the guy who thought he was defending him wonders how he wound up sprawled out on the floor. When games get close late, the Nets still turn to Joe Jesus to save them. DeMarre Carroll will have a crucial role in keeping Johnson off the low block and rendering him not much more than a well-contested jumpshooter, and do that without piling up fouls. If the Hawks can build up a sizable cushion by the middle of the fourth quarter, Joe will grab his towel and his moneybags and find himself a seat.

While it’s cozy to think that Mike Budenholzer holds a considerable coaching advantage coming into the series, this is not Hollins’ first rodeo. The Nets’ head coach was running the show back when the 2011 Memphis Grizzlies became the last playoff team to knock off a 60-win team in the opening round. Their victim was a 61-21 San Antonio Spurs team, the #1 seed in the West ably assisted by Budenholzer.

Coach Bud’s Spurs would get a measure of revenge in the 2013 Conference Finals by sweeping the Grizzlies, prompting new ownership to can Hollins in order to search for a new flavor of vanilla. But if any NBA coach has the blueprint for upending top seeds, it is Hollins, who also starred on an 1977 Portland roster that had never made the playoffs yet swept the #1-seed Lakers in the Western finals before winning it all.

The keys to that 2011 series upset for the Grizzlies, who themselves had never won a single playoff game before, involved stealing Game 1 on the road, then holding serve back home for Games 3, 4, and 6. Hollins turned to Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol to exploit an inexperienced Tiago Splitter, a retiring Antonio McDyess, and a futile Matt Bonner, all of whom tried in vain to help Tim Duncan keep pace. Mike Conley and Tony Allen blanketed the perimeter and held the NBA’s top three-point shooting team to just 29.3 3FG% through six games, including the Spurs’ Manu Ginobili, who was hampered by an injured elbow.

Hollins unleashed Greivis Vasquez when he needed a jolt of offense in the deciding Game 6, as Conley sat with foul trouble. Relative unknown Sam Young also found whatever shots he wanted against San Antonio, prompting Budenholzer to insist a defensive stopgap at small forward (like soon-to-be rookie Kawhi Leonard) was crucial to contending in the future.

The Hawks, fortunately, do not have the same fatal flaws that Spurs team possessed. Instead of a committee, Atlanta has a well-rested All-Star in Paul Millsap at the power forward slot. Millsap has struggled to find his shot during shortened stints in his last three games. Still, Sap is ready to atone for his disappointing conclusion (as a shooter) to the 2014 series with Indiana, after the Hawks had backed the top-seeded Pacers to the wall in five games. Thanks to that series, backup bigs Mike Scott (returning after a late-season back injury) and Pero Antić have prime-time playoff experience under their belt.

Coach Bud also has a defensive ace at the 3-spot in Carroll, who is proving he cannot be left unguarded on the other end of the floor (last 9 games: 16.1 PPG, 58.3 FG%, 42.1 FG%). Instead of a hobbled Ginobili, Atlanta has Kyle Korver. Like Bonner in 2011, Korver is the league’s leading three-point shooter (49.2 3FG%; NBA-high 69.9 TS%). Unlike Bonner, Kyle is no slouch when it comes to team defense. Even without reserve Thabo Sefolosha, the Hawks have the defenders necessary to blanket Johnson no matter where Hollins deploys him.

In lieu of a 35-year-old Tim Duncan that was looking very much his age as that series wore on, Coach Bud can look to a fresh All-Star center in Al Horford, who must be chomping at the bit for a return to the postseason after missing 2014’s near-magical run. Al’s scoring is at a season-high 17.5 PPG this month, and that’s with rest thrown in (season-low 27.3 minutes/game in six April games).

Horford usually makes good reads against the Nets’ Brook Lopez. This season, Al shot 60.7 FG%, while averaging 17.8 PPG in the four-game season series. After joining Williams in Hollins’ doghouse, Lopez has been stupendous in the second-half of the year, averaging 21.1 PPG, 9.4 RPG, and 2.1 BPG since getting his starting gig back last month.

Bropez (4.4 PPG as roll man, 3^rd in NBA) and Thaddeus Young will certainly fill up the boxscore in this series. Their challenge is to thwart Horford’s mid-range mastery (48.4 mid-range FG%, 3^rd in NBA w/ min. 5.0 attempts), Millsap’s ability to score virtually anywhere on the floor (51.3 2FG%, highest since 2011), and both Hawks’ ability to blow past slow-footed defenders on the way to the hoop.

Jeff Teague won’t be hounded by a guard with the defensive chops of Conley. Instead, he and Dennis Schröder will deal with the more lax efforts by Deron Williams and Jarrett Jack to keep them out of the paint. Whether it’s staring down Derrick Rose or giving the Pacers fits, we’ve seen enough Playoff Teague over the years to know Jeff recognizes the postseason is the time to elevate his game and his team.

As effectively as he took the reins last postseason (19.3 PPG, 95.0 FT%), against Brooklyn, Teague should easily eclipse the 39.3 FG% and 5.0 APG efficiencies he had against the 2014 Pacers. Schröder (12.2) and Teague (10.6) are 1^st and 3^rd among the league’s playoff participants in scoring per-48 on drives to the hoop. Both guards should be effective in beating their man off the dribble and getting where they need to be on the floor to spark the Hawks offense.

He’ll join Johnson in the $20 million club in 2015-16, but this is D-Will’s last, best chance to shed the label of D-Idn’t as it pertains to his Nets legacy. Williams has shot just 40.7 FG% and averaged 6.8 APG in three postseason series with Brooklyn, a far cry from his headier days with Millsap and Korver in Salt Lake (45.8 FG%, 40.2 3FG%, 9.6 APG) when Hall of Fame honors seemed within reach.

The New York Daily News notes that in the clutch, the last two postseasons D-Will has shot just 13.3 FG%, 0-for-7 on threes. That’s not exactly Teague-Time quality. Once an automatic All-Star, this series could be Deron’s last time to shine… or tarnish.

Need an X-Factor in this series, Brooklyn? Here’s a Mirza! Teletovic (team-high 1.6 3FGs/game) will seem like a breath of fresh air for the Nets, following surgery to address blood clots in his lungs back in January. He’s listed as out for Games 1 and 2, but has been practicing with the team. Alan Anderson will play after missing the final couple weeks with an ankle sprain, and guard Markel Brown returns as a defensive stopgap after falling ill with the flu. But Teletovic is the guy with the ability to work in tandem with Bojan Bogdanovic and keep the floor spread for the benefit of Lopez and Young.

As a sixth man, Young had a role in toppling a 1-seed, joining forces with Elton Brand to upend a suddenly Rose-less Bulls team that had gone 50-16 in 2011-12. His most impactful game against the Hawks this season didn’t come while wearing a Brooklyn jersey. Thad was moved to small forward by Flip Saunders in January as the Timberwolves went tall from the 2-through-5 spots.

Theoretically, it forced Korver into a position to either play tighter man defense (at the time, against Andrew Wiggins) or switch up with Carroll and deal with Young. In either case, using Young to go big made Kyle less able to help the Hawks as an extra rebounder.

That ploy still didn’t stop the Hawks offense from getting the shots they wanted, but they did struggle defending Young (26 points, 11-for-14 2FGs, 7 assists, 4 offensive rebounds) around the rim. Hollins could go a similar route during the game by inserting Mason Plumlee, Cory Jefferson, or Earl Clark at the 4-spot, thereby shifting Korver onto either Johnson or Young. But those Nets have to at least be better than Young at defending Millsap, who enjoyed a season-high 15-for-16 day shooting free throws (28 points, 15 rebounds) against Brooklyn back on January 28.

This series will be high-scoring, but Brooklyn’s contention prospects revolve around the Nets’ ability to make stops. Since the Trade Deadline, among playoff teams, only the Mavs’ opponents shot better on the floor than the Nets’ (51.3 opponent eFG%, 6^th-worst in NBA), and only the Raptors’ opponents have scored more efficiently (105.6 points per 100 possessions, 8^th-worst in NBA).

If the Hawks commit a gaggle of unforced errors, or the Nets make the effort to try disrupting the Hawks’ pinpoint-passing game, a tight turnover margin will keep Brooklyn within shouting distance. In the two 20-plus-point blowouts against Brooklyn this season, the Hawks committed 16 fewer turnovers combined. In the other two games, including the Hawks’ three-point win in Brooklyn on April 8, Atlanta committed a total of two more TOs. Brooklyn has to do much more than hope the Hawks miss and wait for the rebound.

Taking care of the ball themselves is also crucial for Brooklyn. Since the Trade Deadline the Hawks have feasted off of turnovers (19.2 PPG, 3^rd-most in NBA, up from 17.9 PPG pre-Deadline). Including two losses to the Hawks, Brooklyn is 4-15 this season when they commit more than 16 turnovers in a game. Kent Bazemore will have an important off-bench role in rattling Brooklyn’s cage, and Atlanta’s bench mob must finish scores in transition.

Will the Nets’ lead guards wrest control of the game tempo, protect the ball and set up anything other than ill-advised iso plays? Will Brook Lopez crash the offensive glass but also be mindful of the need to get back on defense? Can they find someone able to keep Korver and Carroll cool from the perimeter? If they do those things, will they keep the game close enough to turn the ball to Joe Johnson for heroics in the clutch? In any case, will Joe even care?

It’s Playoff Time! Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3