Will the Atlanta Hawks join the 82^nd percentile tonight? According to ESPN Stats, when teams are tied at two game apiece in best-of-seven NBA Playoff series, the team that takes Game 5 has gone on to win the series (in either Game 6 or 7), 81.7 percent of the time. Will the top-seeded Hawks take care of business tonight at the Highlight Factory against the Washington Wizards (8:00 PM Eastern, TNT, 92.9 FM in ATL)? Or will they remain satisfied with being known as an uphill-climb kind of team?

The probabilities get much bleaker for teams that come into Game 5 down 3-1. So, it took a now-or-almost-never situation on the road in Game 4 to squeeze the best all-around playoff performance we’ve seen out of the Hawks’ point guards. Together, Jeff Teague and Dennis Schröder directly contributed 16 of Atlanta’s 30 assists and just three of the Hawks’ 13 player turnovers. Their ability to sustain that level of play and contribute a bit more on the defensive end should allow the Hawks to continue playing much of the game from the front.

While Teague’s offense remained a mixed-bag around the rim in Game 4 (5-for-11 within five feet of the goal), he maintained possessions after drawing contact and made the Wizards pay at the free throw line (6-for-7 FTs), keeping pace with Wizards guard Bradley Beal (8-for-9 FTs). Jeff also sunk a pair of crucial three-pointers, including a vintage Teague Time shot in the closing minute-and-a-half to grant Atlanta the necessary breathing room for victory.

Schröder will also want to shake off the yips in the paint (2-for-7 FGs within six feet in Game 4), but he remains the NBA playoff leader with 16.6 points-per-48 on drives to the hoop (LeBron James is second among active players at 12.9). Thus far, Will Bynum (12.2 per-48 on drives through 3 playoff games) has proven much more effective than Ramon Sessions in counterbalancing Schröder’s offensive attack.

While most everyone looks at John Wall’s imprint on the game as a scorer and a passer (league-high 12.6 playoff APG), what Washington may be missing most from his wrapped hand are his steals (1.7 regular-season SPG, 8^th in NBA) and deflections. Atlanta’s pass-heavy attack has them blowing away the conference semifinal field with a 2.44 assist/turnover ratio (Chris Paul’s Clippers are a distant 2^nd, with 1.77).

Staying True to Atlanta by adhering to the ball-sharing philosophy, the Hawks’ 72.8% of field goals assisted, and 20.2 assists per 100 possessions are well above everyone. Without Wall’s disruptive presence, there’s no reason the Hawks can’t improve on those values in Game 5.

Dennis also hit a crucial three-pointer in the fourth, he and Teague connecting from a spot on the floor (the corner) where Kyle Korver has been shielded the whole series. Atlanta’s coaching staff must concoct more effective screen plays, and demand better timing from Atlanta’s ballhandlers, to get Kyle daylight where he’s most effective (54.1 corner 3FG% in regular season, 29.4% in playoffs).

As Korver struggles to contain Washington’s top offensive threat, and as DeMarre Carroll comes into Game 5 nursing a hip pointer, one can expect more of Jeff Teague and reserve guard Kent Bazemore splitting defensive duties on Beal.

Atlanta reaches its defensive nadir when it fails to stay home against the Wizards’ top perimeter threats (Pierce, Beal) and when they do not shut down lanes for the most predictable driving guards (Bynum, Sessions). Until Korver’s offense thaws, Paul Pierce has taken over the top postseason spot with 10.4 catch-and-shoot PPG, hitting on 52.8% of those shots (55.1% on threes) compared to Korver’s 43.5%.

Perhaps smelling himself a bit after his Game 3 heroics, Pierce nailed his first four treys, but could not do enough defensively to keep Atlanta (59.1 first-half team FG%) from building a double-digit first-half lead, largely on the strength of a conga line to the basket for assisted layups. When Atlanta cooled off in the second half (34.9 team FG%) of Game 4, so did Pierce (1-for-3 3FGs).

Cover your eyes, Mike Budenholzer! In the second round of the playoffs, Al Horford and Paul Millsap are 4^th and 7^th, respectively in the league for offensive rebounds per game. Nene found a bit of an offensive pulse back home in Games 3 and 4, but he and Marcin Gortat have seemed to lack synchronization for most of this series, excepting perhaps while Millsap was fighting the flu.

Until Washington’s bigs can demonstrate an ability to make Atlanta pay in transition, the board-crashing will and should continue. Atlanta was held to just 10 fastbreak points in Game 4, but the Wizards couldn’t produce enough of their own (15 fastbreak points) to make a difference.

Larry Drew is not on the opposing sideline, yet, so there’s no reason for the Hawks to look so hapless on defense coming out of timeouts. In Game 4, the Wizards scored either a basket or free throws after every one of the first eight timeouts where they gained the initial possession. Those included two quick-strike Wizard scores that took all of five seconds off the clock during the final 70 seconds of action.

The ninth chance came when Paul Pierce clanked a wide open (courtesy of a WWE-style screen from Nene) three-pointer that could have tied the game with six seconds left. That play took less than three seconds to unfold. Coach Bud continues to make Raggedy Randy look strategically competent, and as long as that continues, the Wizards will remain in contention in the series, with or without Wall.

The past month has been just as much the Ref-offs as the Playoffs, where close calls or non-calls can tip the outcome of the game. Atlanta can’t afford a close-to-the-vest game in the fourth quarter where an untimely travel call, a "blarge," or a bovine-scatological Flagrant-2 ruling could shift the momentum in the Wizards’ favor. So focus and precise execution are paramount factors for the Hawks throughout this contest.

Game 5 is a pivotal point in the NBA Playoffs, and Atlanta did what it needed to do to get its homecourt advantage back. Do the Hawks want to be in a “Win and Don’t Come Home Unless It’s Game 1” situation on Friday night? Or would they prefer the “Win or Don’t Even Bother Coming Home” scenario? The ball, like the odds, is in their court.

Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3