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Hawks - Thunder


lethalweapon3

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blog-0229903001355959118.jpeg“Gee whiz… what will we do when we have to play the Thunder?”

That was the prevailing sentiment among most Atlanta Hawks fans for two days before November 4, after our Fine Feathered Friends had laid an egg in their home opener against what was expected to be an overmatched Houston Rockets squad. If Marcus Morris can light us up, what, pray tell, will Kevin Durant do to us?

By evening’s end, Hawks fans got their answer, in the form of a resounding 104-95 victory in Loud City.

But the question arises once again, as the Hawks return to Philips Arena less than 24 hours after another lackluster overtime victory versus the 3-19 Washington Wizards. “Gosh, if Jordan Crawford can have his way with us, for Pete’s sake, what will Russell Westbrook do to us?”

The Hawks pulled off the November Surprise in OKC while Josh Smith was sidelined with a sprained ankle, with Anthony Tolliver starting at power forward opposite Serge Ibaka. They also endured 22 first-half points from new acquisition Kevin Martin, coming off the bench to spell defensive stalwart Thabo Sefolosha. But Martin’s output was neutralized in the second half by Lou Williams, who shot just 1-for-6 from 3-point range in the game but still managed 14 points in the final quarter.

Essentially, Atlanta got a more balanced effort from its bench than the Thunder, who only had seven scoring contributors while all ten Hawks got in the scoring column. Durant, Westbrook, Martin and Ibaka may do a lot to us, but it still may not matter, if the Hawks play their cards right.

It helped to have Westbrook in Whoopsbrook form, making one critical blunder and questionable shot after another at crucial junctures of the game. KD was also perhaps a bit too passive -- as passive as one can be when dropping 22 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists, anyway -- as he was kicking the tires on the new wrinkles in Coach Scott Brooks’ offense.

Those wrinkles seem to be pretty well ironed out now, with the Thunder running off 11 straight games and 14 of their last 15, topping off a five-game homestand last Monday with a strong win against their archrival Spurs. San Antonio was missing both Manu Ginobili and Kawhi Leonard and could not withstand the surge from Ibaka, who drummed the Spurs with a career-high 25 points and season-high 17 boards.

How can your team rank dead-last in the NBA in field goal attempts per game (77.0, 30th in NBA), yet boast the league’s top record and the most points scored (105.8 per game)? If you’re OKC, rank second overall in three-point shooting (41.1%) and tops in free throw shooting (84.2%) and And-1 percentage (3.25%), and you’re well on your way.

I guess if there’s a way to critique a 20-4 team, they may be eating up too much of the clock setting up plays (91.9 points per possession, 15th in NBA) for some fairly obvious options. That sets them up for plenty of turnovers (15.05% turnover rate, worst in NBA), which should work right into the Hawks plans (16.8 turnovers per 48 minutes, 2nd in NBA).

Rebounding may not be as much of a challenge for Atlanta as it might seem. There are no Thunder players among the top 50 in the NBA for defensive rebounding rate (Durant’s team-leading 21.1 per 100 possessions ranks 57th; Ibaka’s 18.9 ranks 83rd), although Durant is top-ten in defensive rebounds per game. OKC’s interior defense basically consists of Ibaka skying for blocks (2nd in the NBA at 3.1 per game), while Durant vies for the rebound.

Oklahoma City also has no players in the top 30 for offensive rebounding rate, which doesn’t seem as much of a surprise, since there aren’t many misses on their end when they get a shot off. As perhaps another sign of being too deferential at times, the long-limbed Durant himself has just 2 offensive boards in his last 8 games.

This Just In: Ibaka has a reliable mid-range jumper now! He’s hitting an uncanny 66% from 10-to-15 feet, and 51% from 16 feet out to the 3-point line (41% from both distances last season). You truly have to play him honest outside the paint now. You actually want him settling for short-range jumpers (43% from 3-to-9 feet). Ibaka’s still not a threat to pass it once he gets the ball, though. He’s tallied just 8 assists in his 24 games.

Westbrook’s shot has been failing him as of late (33.9 FG% in his last 4 games), but he’s steadied his playmaking, averaging 9.0 assists and just2.0 turnovers in his last five games. Both Westbrook (8.8) and Durant (4.2) are experiencing career highs in assists per game. Jeff Teague has not done the best job of consistently creating pressure on opposing point guards, and needs to be a 40-minute presence tonight to create the transition baskets the Hawks will need to get an edge. Westbrook, of course, lives off dunks and lay-ins (3.3 FGM/game, tops among NBA point guards), so minimizing his ability to penetrate is key.

Al Horford’s in line for a bounce-back game after shooting a season-low 2-for-11 (18.2 FG%) against the Wizards, repeatedly blocked at the rim. He shot 11-for-19 (57.1 FG%) for 23 points and 12 rebounds, including a season-high 6 offensive boards.

When Smith has to rotate to help around the rim with Durant and Westbrook, Horford and the Hawks’ centers need to slide over and keep Ibaka from getting easy passes and follow-shots. If anything, you’ll want Kendrick Perkins and Hasheem Thabeet getting the ball instead (both in NBA Top 20 for turnover rate).

In close contests, Hack-a-Hawk will remain in effect until Atlanta proves they can focus and convert from the charity stripe. They have now left at least 10 points from free throws on the table in each of their last three games, and have missed more free throws than their opponents in each of their last four games. To the Hawks’ fortune, in only two of their seven losses (at GSW, vs. CLE) have the number of missed free throws exceeded the final point margin, although two overtimes against Washington might have been avoided had Atlanta not missed 9 and 11 free throw attempts in each game.

Go Hawks!

~lw3

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3124163678-1.jpg

Accompanying musical selection: "Don't Dunk on Perkins" by Eel Pot Alley.

Don't dunk on Perkins//he'll be mad at you//

don't dunk on Perkins//he'll be pissed at you//what can you do?//

you're just trying to raise a family//you're just trying to do your job//

you're not trying to raise a family the wrong way//

so don't dunk on Perkins//or he'll be looking for you//

don't dunk on Perkins//or he'll be mad at you//

there's nothing you can do//you're not trying to start an argument//

you're just trying to keep your job//

you're not trying to start an argument the wrong way//'cause every way is wrong//

don't dunk on Perkins//or he'll be mad at you//

don't dunk on Perkins//or he'll me mad at you//what can you do?

http://bit.ly/U9b4bA

~lw3

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It would be good to have Anthony Morrow (game time decision) available on offense, at least. OKC gives up the league's highest shooting percentage (48.2 FG%) for mid-range shots (10-to-15 feet). Among NBA players taking at least 0.5 shots per game from this range, Morrow ranks #1 at 72.7 FG%.

Devin will rest that sore foot according to C-Viv, who also just tweeted that LD stated there's a "strong possibility" of Johnny Ca$h making it rain against the Thunder. Hopefully, not just garbage-time minutes. I'll believe it when I see it!

~lw3

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