Rested, or rusted?

We’ll get a truer sense of where the Indiana Pacers are tonight as they ride their snowplows into the Philips Arena to face the Atlanta Hawks.

With a snowstorm cancelling a mid-week tilt against the Bulls, Indy got 5 days of “rest” (assuming they weren’t out shoveling), before holding off a second-half surge by the reeling Phoenix Suns in Indianapolis last night.

At 17-12, the Pacers are on a season-high four-game winning streak and have taken over the reins of the Central Division, with their traditional leading scorer, Danny Granger, unavailable for at least another month as his knee rehabs. They beat the team the Hawks bested last night, the Cavaliers, in Cleveland by ten points last week.

We get yet another team that hasn’t emerged victorious at The Highlight Factory in a minute, last winning here over six years ago. That December 2006 game included guys like Speedy Claxton, Shelden Williams, Salim Stoudamire, Darrell Armstrong, Sarunas Jasikevicius, and Maceo Baston. In the November 7 matchup in Atlanta, the Pacers were up by 14 points in the final quarter before the Hawks pulled the rug out from under them. Atlanta ran off 18 straight points featuring a bombardment from Kyle Korver and Jeff Teague in that stretch.

The Hawks aren’t the only team that’s benefitted from a fairly favorable schedule. Indiana is just 2-9 versus “playoffs-if-the-season-ended-yesterday” teams (Atlanta’s 7-7). Tonight would be their first win against such a team since beating Chicago and Portland on December 4-5.

How will Teague, coming off a career scoring night (27 points, including the clinching nine final points in the fourth quarter, and 8 assists), perform against George Hill? The Suns used Sebastian Telfair’s season-high 19 points plus 6 assists to keep Friday’s game against Indiana close. Lance Stephenson has been moved into the starting lineup by Coach Frank Vogel expressly to slow the roll of whoever in the backcourt has the hotter hand, although it’s worth noting he’s not a shot blocker (1 block this season) and has been hampered by an ankle sprain.

Expect a lot of one-and-done basketball tonight. Indiana shoots just 42.6% on the season (27^th in NBA), but they hold opponents to NBA lows of 89.9 PPG, 41.0 FG% and 30.6 3FG%. Some of that is the general caliber of the teams they’ve played, but much greater factors are a grinding, slow-paced offense (28^th lowest pace... they might wanna change their name) and a tight man defense that forces teams into tough shots and keeps them off the glass.

Lacking an array of accurate shooters, to stay competitive the Pacers rely on defensive rebounding to limit opponents’ opportunities. They’re second in the league for per-game total rebounds (46.0 per game) and defensive rebounds (33.6 per game). It’s definitely a team effort. They have a bigs-heavy roster that can throw 2012 All-Star Roy Hibbert, leading scorer David West, Tyler Hansbrough, and Ian Mahinmi at the glass, plus they send guards and wing players like Paul George, Hill and Stephenson to help out. George is the only non-power forward-or-center in the league who leads his team in defensive rebounds per game. He’s had three double-digit defensive rebounding tallies in his past five games.

The Hawks are not strong on offensive rebounding (10.4 per game, 22^nd in the NBA), but on the other end they boast four players (Ivan Johnson, Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, Josh Smith) with defensive rebounding per-possession rates that exceed the Pacers’ top player (David West) in that category. We’ll see how they’ll hold up against the Pacers’ bigs while battling hip issues and, in Ivan’s case, coming off of a stomach virus. Horf and Ivan will try to make a go of it while Smoove rests that hip flexor tonight.

Hill has responded to his full-time starting gig with career-high scoring and passing numbers (15.2 PPG, 1.7 three-pointers per game, 5.2 APG), although he struggles shooting long-range twos (23.7 FG% from 16-to-23 feet).

George is back on the cold side of a hot-and-cold season shooting the ball (35.0 FG% his last 3 games, 42.4% on the season). He’s also 6-for-28 on threes in his last six games.

West (team-leading 17.3 PPG on 49.1 FG%) is still able to find his offense with ease, although he's been below his scoring average in four of the last five games. He'd be back to his 20 PPG days if Indiana would pick up the pace, or if he could get his free throw shooting (71.4 FT%) back to his customary 80% level. After that eye-opening first half against Cleveland, it will be interesting to see how much time Anthony Tolliver gets with Smoove out of action, at least to help tend to West, who has also become a more proficient passer (career-high 15.8 Assist percentage).

Hibbert has still not come around offensively (career-low 40.2 FG%), but he’s making up for it on the other end. He is up to third in the NBA for both defensive rating (94.9 opponent points per 100 possessions) and blocks per game (2.8). Giving the rising-tide-lifting-all-ships concept legitimacy, George, Hibbert, West, and Hill are all in the top 15 for defensive win shares.

The game should come down to which team can take smarter shots, and which can hold off opponents in transition after missed shots. Lou Wlliams could be a great target for outlets when the Pacers are not set in their halfcourt defense. The hawks will have to gameplan for the athletic Gerald Green and George on fast breaks (Sam Young will be out with the flu).

(Side note for you crazy college kids back early from the break: the Hawks are selling tickets at the Philips Arena window for $15 tonight with a valid college, or UGA "wink", ID).

Go Hawks!

~lw3