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Hawks - Bobcats


lethalweapon3

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blog-0791375001358974523.jpgThese are trying times on Trade Street, as the Charlotte Bobcats (10-31) are coming to understand their lot in life. They’ve won just three of their past 29 NBA contests and are fighting off the awakening Washington Wizards and Cleveland Cavaliers for dead last in the NBA.

Complacency may be setting in for a team that, thanks to its fast start, has already surpassed the worst record in NBA history from the previous season. Now, though, they have a new futility record to fend off.

Since starting out 5-2 at Time Warner Cable Arena, culminating in a one-point win against Toronto on November 21, the Cats fell 101-91 to the Atlanta Hawks two nights later. Two months have passed and they still haven’t won a single home game since. A loss tonight to the Hawks, winners of seven straight in this series, will move these Bobcats within three games of tying the all-time longest NBA home losing streak of 19 games, set by Jim Jackson’s 1993-94 Dallas Mavericks.

They’re hoping for a lifeline from the Hawks, who enjoyed their largest margin of victory of the season (113-90) in the last meeting with the Bobcats in Atlanta on December 13.

Charlotte’s scoring differential of -8.3 PPG is easily the worst in the league. Nonetheless, they’ve managed to keep their margins of defeat within 10 points for six of their last nine losses. They’ve also given up less than their NBA-high 103.2 opponent PPG in each of their last seven games.

All the losing hasn’t seemed to hamper the sophomore campaign of Kemba Walker. The 6’1” guard is starting to find his scoring touch, shooting 50.8 FG% in his last four games, and has a slim turnover rate (8.95 TOs per 100 possessions) that’s bested among starting point guards only by Chris Paul and Jose Calderon. Like Kyrie Irving, surely his assist rate would be higher if he had some reliable shooters and finishers around him.

Low turnover rates among the guards (Reggie Williams, Jeff Taylor, Ramon Sessions, and Gerald Henderson have even lower rates than Walker) and a high volume of free throws (19.7 free throws made per game, 2nd most in NBA) keep the Cats within purring distance even when their shots are off, which is often (42.4 FG%, 27th in NBA). Sessions and Ben Gordon come off the bench, but are the next two highest scorers after Walker. Sessions is scoring a career-high 14.3 PPG, and leads all qualified Eastern Conference guards in free throws made per game (4.8 FTM/G). The Hawks will want to minimize the hacking, as Charlotte is still 5-1 when they draw 27 or more personal fouls.

Walker achieved a career-high 35 points on Monday with 6-of-7 three-point shooting against Jeremy Lin and the Rockets. Charlotte surged to an 11-point halftime lead in that game, but could not hang on as James Harden took control with 21 trips to the free throw line, sinking 19 of those shots.

Charlotte’s fourth-leading scorer is a guard, too (Henderson). The guards are taking charge because there’s not much help coming from the frontcourt. The Bobcats are among the top five shooting teams volume-wise in the league at-the-rim, but because they rely on guards more than bigs, they convert at a woeful 57.7% (lowest at-rim FG% in NBA). Tyrus Thomas is earning a team-high $26 million over this and the next two seasons, but is deployed sparingly. Byron Mullens has of course been unreliable as a steady post presence, but it doesn’t help that he’s sidelined with an ankle sprain. Opponents are trapping the Bobcat guards and daring players like Brendan Haywood, Bismack Biyombo, DeSagana Diop, and Thomas to make something, anything, happen.

Their top offensive option among power forwards? You guessed it, Hakim Warrick. Acquired in the trade of Matt Carroll to New Orleans, Warrick moved into the starting lineup on January 11 and has scored at least ten points in five of his last six games.

Meanwhile, #2 overall pick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist seems to be losing his way at small forward. The rookie is shooting 38.7 FG% in his last seven games (6.7 PPG), and has just seven steals and eight blocks over his last fifteen. Coach Mike Dunlap and the Bobcat guards have to find a way to get MKG more involved via the transition offense. He’s connecting on just 25.8% of his jump shots. DeShawn Stevenson will start tonight, apparently to stick with Kidd-Gilchrist, Gordon or Henderson if any of them get a streak going.

The degree of difficulty for the Cats is less steep tonight. Atlanta will rest Al Horford, one day after posting a season-high 28 points, to address his lingering hamstring and calf injuries. Horford, the team’s top defensive rebounder, will be joined by the Hawks’ top offensive rebounder, Zaza Pachulia, on the injury list as Pachulia deals with a sore Achilles.

Ivan Johnson, in his first NBA start, will be subbed by Johan Petro and Anthony Tolliver as they endeavor to achieve at least parity with the Bobcats’ frontline. Johnson has averaged 13.6 PPG and 6.1 RPG in the five games this season where he’s played 20+ minutes. He will have to be ready for putbacks and passes in the paint as Biyombo leaves him to help with Josh Smith and the penetrating Hawk guards. As Zaza did in a start last week spelling Smith, Ivan will need to pass the ball out more than he’s accustomed to doing (7.25 assists per 100 possessions, second lowest on the team). On defense, Johnson and rookie Mike Scott (fresh off a career-high 11 points and 7 boards) will have to be focused and prepared to box out when Charlotte’s guards drive for shots.

As Road Warriors go, Kyle Korver has been less Hawk and more Animal. He’s shooting just 38.8 FG% at Philips Arena (9.9 PPG), but a superb 52.7 FG% (11.4 PPG) in away games. Korver also stays hot with little time off. His 50.7% from three-point range on the back end of back-to-back nights dwindles as he get more days off (46.3% with 1 day rest, 40.0% with 2 days rest, 30.4% with 3 or more days rest). The Hawks should look for him early and often… and so should the Bobcats.

Expect Henderson and rookies MKG and Jeff Taylor to shadow Korver along the arc. Even without Lou Williams and Charlotte native Anthony Morrow, the Hawks have a plethora of options besides Korver (Devin Harris, John Jenkins, Jeff Teague, and re-arriving revelation Jannero Pargo) at their disposal to get open for shots. Bobcat opponents score 9.4 3FGs per game, most in the league, while shooting them at the second-highest percentage (38.6 3FG%).

Go Hawks!

~lw3

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