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Hawks - 76ers


lethalweapon3

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blog-0075749001362613463.jpgWhen looking at the lineups at the start of the season, one could not help but glance at the Atlantic Division and make the sobering recognition that, with the cagey Celtics, wisened Knicks, and retooled Nets, that somebody will be settling for fourth place.

It turns out that role fell to the Philadelphia 76ers, tonight’s opponent for the Atlanta Hawks coming off of a decidedly half-baked road trip. The Sixers are kicking off a three-game road swing through the Southeast, losers of their last ten road games (2-18 in their last 20 away games) and winners of just one of their last ten overall. They offered not much resistance to the Boston Celtics last night in Philly, pressed into shooting just 41% in a 109-101 defeat.

They rolled the dice and apparently came out craps, shipping off Andre Iguodala, Nikola Vucevic, Mo Harkless, and a future first-rounder in a multi-team deal that netted them a potential star center in Andrew Bynum and veteran Jason Richardson. Bynum, an unrestricted free agent this summer, has not healed after a non-invasive procedure for his bruised right knee and is dealing with swelling in both knees. J-Rich was shut down for the remainder of the season after requiring knee surgery himself.

In Bynum’s absence, the Sixers are not a terribly physical bunch. Heavily reliant on Spencer Hawes, Lavoy Allen, and Kwame Brown, they’re last in the league for personal fouls drawn per game (16.4 opponent PF/G), and last in free throws made per game (12.1 FTM/G, two places ahead of the Hawks’ 13.7). More minutes will be allocated to 6’11” rookie Arnett Moultrie, who scored ten points on all five field goal attempts versus Boston. While he has not drawn trips to the line himself lately, he shot 78% on free throws at Mississippi State, fifth-highest among NCAA centers last year. Over the last four games, he made all 12 of his field goals.

After the West Coast road trip, Senor Al Horford has edged ahead of Sir Charles Barkley for 20th all-time in career field-goal percentage (54.1%, 5th among active NBA players). He’s shooting 63% since the All-Star break (54.1% before the break) and has averaged 24.1 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in those eight games. With limited resistance from the Sixers in the post, he and the Hawks’ frontcourt players need to take the ball to the hole repeatedly, and outrun their opponents on the fastbreak.

Akin to Woodsonian Hawks teams of the recent past, the Sixers depend heavily on ball control (12.6 TO/G, 2nd-fewest in NBA), a plodding pace (21st in NBA), and modest defensive efficiency (105 opponent points per 100 possessions, 12th in NBA) to keep themselves in games when they lack offensive firepower (92.1 PPG, 29th in NBA). Nick Young, another offseason acquisition, sprained an ankle last week and will remain out of action indefinitely. Dorell Wright comes off the bench looking to approximate production lost with Richardson and Young unavailable. Jeremy Pargo lit up Atlanta back in November with the Cavs, and is available if more offensive punch is needed.

To sustain a defensive focus in the backcourt, Royal Ivey (yes, that Royal Ivey) has been starting lately at the 2-spot. He has actually improved at the offensive end, with career highs of 46.0 FG% and 44.3 3FG%, although he’s far from a primary option. The Hawks’ shooters at the wing will be closely guarded by third-year guard-forward Evan Turner, who has yet to really turn the corner. The former second-overall pick averages career highs of 14.1 PPG, 36.4 3FG%, and 4.5 APG, but with a boost in minutes his overall efficiency has not been quite what was expected of him. Damien Wilkins will also be deployed to frustrate any dribble-driving Hawks, including Devin Harris, who missed out on Atlanta's 99-80 loss in Philadelphia on December 21, but will start tonight with DeShawn Stevenson at small forward.

One silver lining in this deep-sixed Sixers season is the long-predicted emergence of Jrue Holiday (19.1 PPG) as a top-flight point guard. STATS LLC reports that the 2013 All-Star’s per-game assist total (8.5 APG, 3rd among active NBA players, up from 4.5 in 2011-12) represents the league’s largest jump in that category. That this is happening without Bynum or other previously expected offensive contributors at his disposal is an impressive feat. Holiday also leads the NBA in turnovers (4.0 per game), but with the Sixers turning over the ball so little as a team, that only serves to show, in contrast to the Hawks, how ball-dominant the point guard role is for Philly’s offense. When he gives up the ball, it is important for Atlanta defenders to deny him from getting the ball back, forcing other decision makers late in the shot clock.

Another emerging player is former Yellow Jacket Thaddeus Young (career-high 14.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.7 SPG, and 0.9 BPG). Young may not get consideration for Most Improved Player in the league this year as his free-throw shooting is down sharply (55.5 FT%, down from 77.1% in 2011-12). However, his turnover rate (7.4 pert 100 possessions) is among the five lowest in the league. Despite becoming the second-best offensive option in Philly, his usage rate is surprisingly down from previous seasons. Expect that to change as the regular season draws to a close.

New Hawk acquisition Shelvin Mack had a cup of tea with the Sixers about a month ago, playing just seven minutes in four games. He was invited back to the Wizards after getting waived in training camp, actually starting in his first two games, but was dropped in a squeeze play once John Wall was prepared to return. A fairly stable passer and energetic defender, Mack will have time to work on his wayward jumpshot and conditioning behind Jeff Teague and Devin Harris.

Sixers Coach Doug Collins has that Larry Brown look about him. Buoyed by the prospects of The ‘Drew and Jrue Show, Collins signed a contract in October extending his services through 2013-14. But with the chips not falling and the season unraveling, Collins seems to be at wit’s end and looking for the nearest exit out of the City of Brotherly Shove.

The 76ers sit in the ninth-place position, ten games behind the Hawks with 23 games to go, with Toronto and Detroit nipping at their heels. Any opportunity the Hawks allow Philadelphia to pull off a victory at Philips Arena tonight would greatly disappoint paying fans and serve merely as a granted stay for the Sixers’ eventual execution.

Go Hawks!

~lw3

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