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Hawks - Bucks


lethalweapon3

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blog-0374001001363817797.jpgSomebody, check Kurt Russell’s availability. The Milwaukee Bucks may need his help, because for the last few weeks of this season, they will be starring in Escape from Miami. Situated in the dreaded eighth-spot, two games behind the Celtics and Bulls, and 2.5 games behind the Atlanta Hawks with 16 left to play, they’ll need to rally just to avoid drawing the red-hot HEAT in the first round of the playoffs.

The Bucks got a crucial home win last night against the Portland Trail Blazers, 102-95 to keep themselves above .500 (34-32) on the year. It’s their second triumph in a row, the prior one at home versus Orlando. But to get a more competitive first-round playoff matchup, they really need to beat a fellow Eastern Conference Top 8 team. Amazingly, that’s something the Antlered Ones haven’t accomplished since January 9 (0-6 since then).

They’ll try getting over the hump and prevailing at Philips Arena for the first time since November 2010. They get two more cracks at the Hawks, including next Sunday in Milwaukee. The only other upper-half Eastern foes they’ll have on the schedule are Indiana (Friday), Miami, and New York, once each.

It’s yet another team with an oft-cited sense of urgency coming into the Highlight Factory. Last time around, the Hawks blitzed the playoff-thirsty Dallas Mavericks with 113 points on 56 percent shooting -- and still got blown the heck out. It will be imperative for Atlanta to tighten up screen-and-roll defense against Milwaukee’s guards, who will penetrate and look for easy buckets or easier trips to the foul line. Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis, and J.J. Redick each shoot more than 2.5 FTAs per game, and all three hit more than 78 percent of them.

Back on February 23, Al Horford proved to be The Big Cheese in America’s Dairyland. He tractored the NBA’s leading shot-blocker, Larry Sanders for a game-clinching hook shot in the closing seconds of Atlanta’s 103-102 win at the BMO Harris Bradley Center. Horford matched Jeff Teague’s 23 points and tacked on 11 rebounds to give the Hawks’ road trip a nice kickstart and the Bucks their third straight defeat. He’ll be going for his fifth consecutive double-double but needs to keep pace with Sanders on the defensive end (just one blocked shot in his last six games).

Meanwhile, Sanders is trying to prove to Coach Jim Boylan he can keep his composure on the court, having been tossed in two consecutive games last week, including one hilarious scene where he thumbed-up each ref on the way off the floor. Posting him up repeatedly may fluster him again, and offer the Philips Arena crowd a little levity.

Josh Smith provided five assists but turned the ball over four times against the Mavs. The Hawks can be crazy good when Smith’s passing efficiency is high. Atlanta’s 18-6 when he commits know more than two turnovers in a game (4.4 APG in those games), and 9-2 when he manages to keep it down to one TO (4.8 APG). Including the Dallas game, Atlanta is 0-3 when he takes at least 4 shots and misses them all, and 5-14 in those games (min. four 3PAs) whether he makes one or not.

Smoove’s Oak Hill alum, Jennings goes through hot-and-cold streaks with his shot, and that game (11 points on 4-for-11 shooting, 5 assists in 30 minutes) was the start of a brief one. He shot 4-for-7 on threes against Portland yesterday on the way to 24 points, coming off a five game stretch where he shot 18-for-56 from the floor. He has been distributing the ball recently, with 9.3 assists per game in his last four and 10.8 so far this month.

Sharing his high-scoring backcourt with Jennings, Ellis’ offensive efficiency has taken a hit up until recently. He’s shooting just 42.1 FG%, worst for the eight-year veteran since his rookie season, and just 26.2 3FG%, his lowest since 2008 when he hardly took those shots at all. But his numbers are up since the All-Star Break, averaging 23.6 PPG, 7.3 APG, and 4.4 RPG while shooting 48.6 FG% (35.0% on threes, 39.0% in March). Without continued improvement, though, rumors of Ellis’ forthcoming contract opt-out ($11 million due next year) may be greatly exaggerated. Against Atlanta’s pass-heavy offense, he’ll be beneficial to the Bucks tonight if he’s causing turnovers for his opponent (2.0 steals per game, 3rd in NBA) and not creating so many of his own (3.1 TOs per game, 8th in NBA).

Why are they still hatin’ on the Haitian? Samuel Dalembert had his best outing against Portland (16 points and 7 rebounds) since enduring a week-long suspension for missing the team’s shootaround on February 26. Starting for the second time in three games after being used sparingly since getting suspended, it appears Coach Boylan may stick with Dalembert if he can provide defense and rebounding over the home stretch.

Two Wheel-of-Fortune nightmare answers, Ersan Ilyasova (hip) and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (turf toe), will be sitting this one out. With Tobias Harris now settled in Orlando, these injuries will put more pressure on the small forward position. “Mike D” Dunleavy will have to be beastin’ from the perimeter (43.3 3FG%, 7th in NBA, just behind Ilyasova). Hawks’ wing players should be able to slip past Mike’s D to create buckets for themselves and their teammates.

Go Hawks!

~lw3

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