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dlpin

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Posts posted by dlpin

  1. Not only was Rondo a real PG, and led the team in assists, all of the big three could pass.

    The year they won the title he put up 10 and 5. Hardly a significant improvement over bibby/hinrich/teague. Right now? Yes. Back then? no.

    If you replaced Rip Halmilton with JJ on that Detroit Piston Team.. don't they still win? Isn't JJ the best player on that team?

    I've already said that the only way that JJ would be the best player on a title team is if it was a team like those pistons. Defensive player of the year, 3 on the all the defensive team, 4 all stars, etc.

    Kendrick Perkins. Brook Lopez. Andrew Bogut, Joakim Noah, When do you want me to stop?

    The truth is.. when you're talking about Horf the C, in a series... He's not that good. Horf is made of paper stats. He's good enough to get 19/10 because the league is weak and he can score against weak competition... especially when he's the kick out on Joe or Jamal or Bibby's play. However, when teams focus on Horf, what does he do?

    Look at his playoffs. He went from being a 55.7% shooter to being a 42.3% shooter this year.

    Yr 1 .499 to .472

    Yr 2 .525 to .424

    Yr 3 .551 to .523

    Yr 4 ..557 to .423

    These are Horfs regular season to Playoffs numbers. Every year, he dropped. Some years very significantly.

    First year = Boston

    Second Year = Miami and Cleveland.

    Third Year = Milwaukee (without Bogut) and Orlando

    FourthYear = Orlando and Chicago

    How many other Centers go from being over 50% sometimes 55% shooting on the year to under 45% shooting as easily as Horf?

    Really? You think that Perkins as a center makes the hawks title favorites? Even though Perkins couldn't take the Thunder, with a much better cast, to the finals? Noah makes the hawks a contender?

    All those players are worse than JJ. But none of them make the hawks a contender.

    JJ and Gasol would be about equal if they played with each other. What did Gasol ever do when he was the main guy in Memphis? He didn't even win a playoff game. Both JJ and Pau could alternate being the #1.

    1- No, they wouldn't. Gasol not only has more all nba selections, but if you want to compare gasol in memphis to jj you have to look them at the same period. The last full, healthy season Gasol had in Memphis, 05-06, he was the best player on a 49 win team that had Mike Miller as the second best player. Joe Johnson was leading the hawks to 26 wins. I don't know anyone anywhere that would rather have JJ over Gasol.

    2- Gasol and Johnson wouldn't win the title. Gasol and Kobe needed 7 games and a major injury to a celtics starter to win the 2nd title.

    The 2000 Indiana Pacers squad that got to the NBA Finals and took the Lakers to 6 games, consisted of these players

    - Jalen Rose ( leading scorer at 18.2 ppg . . also averaged 4.8 rebs and 4 assists - 47% FG - 39% 3FG )

    - Reggie Miller ( averaged 18.1 ppg - 45% FG - 41% 3FG )

    - Rik Smits ( center who averaged 12.9 ppg - 5.1 rebs )

    - Dale Davis ( 10 pts - 9.9 rebs )

    - Mark Jackson ( 8.1 pts - 8 asst )

    - Austin Croshere ( 6th man . . 10.3 pts - 6.4 rebs )

    - Travis Best ( 8.9 ppg - 48% FG - 38% 3FG )

    - Sam Perkins ( 6.6 ppg - 41% 3FG )

    1- That was the weakest period in the east in a long time. The only reason they took the lakers to 6 was because Kobe was young and injured (missed almost 2 full games of the finals). If Kobe didn't miss game 3, that series would have been a sweep.

    2- You are shortchanging those players with those numbers. 4 of those players had been all stars at one point in their careers, and Jalen Rose was the most improved player that year.

    But the question remains: which team would be both a contender and have JJ as the best player? I guarantee you can't come up with one short of putting 4 all stars/all defensive players of almost similar skill alongside him.

  2. Yes they do.

    Iverson needed an elite defensive team around him, anchored by one of the games all-time best shot blockers, and a very good perimeter defender in Aaron McKie, and even he couldn't beat the Lakers but once.

    Kobe needed a very good post scorer and an elite perimeter defender, along with a decent center and a versatile 6th man forward. Before that, the Lakers were a team just like us.

    It's like I listed in a post earlier this morning. Guys like T-Mac, Grant Hill, Vince Carter and Gilbert Arenas were all considered to be superstars at one point in their careers. And as that superstar, none of them reached the Finals, because they lacked some of the key elements championship teams need to get to that next level. If you're not a lights out defensive team, you better be a damn good and efficient offensive team with multiple scorers who can get it done.

    Huh? Are you really going to argue that superstars need as much help as JJ would need to win a championship? Would those 6ers teams with JJ instead of Iverson make the finals? Would those lakers teams with JJ instead of Kobe win two titles? Not to mention that if JJ was playing with Gasol, JJ wouldn't be the best player on the team anymore.

    Also, to recap, here's what Diesel said:

    My premise is that before we go evaluating JJ, at least give him a team with a full skillset.

    He needs a low post scorer.

    He needs a low post defender.

    He needs a real PG.

    Not just "help," but those specific skill sets. Who was the real PG in those lakers teams? Was Rondo a "real pg" when the celtics won the title? The only championship teams to have significantly better point guards than who JJ has played with are the pistons and the spurs. Rondo now is better, but sophomore rondo wasn't. Fisher isn't. 37 year old Payton wasn't. As for low post scorer and defender, the teams that had that had them as the best player on the team (shaq, duncan, hakeem).

    As for the examples you mentioned, Carter and Arenas were never superstars (0 1st team all nba selections for both of them) and T-Mac and Hill were unlucky in getting hurt during their primes.

    Again, no one denies that superstars need help. But players who aren't superstars need even more help. But let's end the diversion. Please construct a team that would satisfy the two following conditions: 1- it would be a favorite to win the championship and 2- JJ would be the best player on it.

    Really?? This is what you think when you see Allstar by Al's name? He's a paper All star. Just like most of our team. We look good on paper but on the court, you don't necessarily get what you thought you would.

    Name one low post player who is better than Horford but worse than JJ that would make the hawks a contender?

  3. Before we get into your questions.. I want you to understand my premise.

    It's not that I'm saying JJ needs a superstar on his team. I'm saying that these guys had a superstar.

    My premise is that before we go evaluating JJ, at least give him a team with a full skillset.

    He needs a low post scorer.

    He needs a low post defender.

    He needs a real PG.

    But this is what I am talking about. IF JJ is to be the best player on the team, he'd need a team that is good, all star or all defensive level 1-5. Which is rare (and why detroit was so good). Superstars don't need that much.

  4. I think it's funny to say that using the zone means the win wasn't respectable. The zone wasn't legal and now is. On the other hand, the hand check and the charge area have changed as well, and few teams in nba history benefit more from those changes than this heat team. There is a reason why lebron and wade shoot free throws at a higher rate than even jordan did. Is it not respectable to force contact in the no charge zone like they do because that wasn't in the rules before?

    As for respectable:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdvwepbKG9E

    HuR88.gif

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foaPMZxtzx4

  5. Name of external link

    If the NBA was so Dominant.. why did so many ABA stars go to the NBA and become superstars?

    Dr. J.

    Dan Issel

    Artis Gilmore

    Connie Hawkins

    Moses Malone

    George Gervin

    Maurice Lucas

    David Thompson

    etc...

    Why is it that they were considered to have the best referees?

    Why is it that they had legendary coaches before the NBA would pick them up:

    Larry Brown

    Hubie Brown

    Doug Mo...

    Then there's this:

    Sportswriter Bob Ryan: "When writers such as Jim O'Brien and Peter Vescey wrote that the two leagues were very close, that some ABA teams were among the top five of all pro basketball teams, I thought they had no objectivity and that they were too close to the teams they were writing about to really understand pro basketball. Then came the merger, and Denver and San Antonio won division titles. What could I say? Guys like Jim O'Brien were right.

    Wait. there's more..

    Without the ABA, you wouldn't have:

    3 pt shots.

    pressing defenses.

    Slam dunk contest.

    Shot clock.

    The ABA was the innovative league. The NBA was the well established league. The NBA had it's older stars. The ABA were attracting the younger stars. We're not talking about USFL here, we're talking about a League that had it had the financing and business sense would have put the NBA out of business easily.

    Doesn't change the fact that the ABA was clearly inferior. All 4 teams that moved to the nba did worse than in the ABA. But the ABA/NBA discussion is besides the point. Even if you include the ABA in the discussion we are still talking about only 3 mvps in 60+ years of basketball not in the hall of fame. And all 3 not in the hall of fame had worse careers than KG. There is no doubt in anyone's mind that KG would be in the hall of fame even without boston. Just like everyone is sure that Nash will be there as well.

  6. This is an argument, but it is a misleading argument.

    I can easily say...

    What about Malone? What about Dirk? What about Charles? What about Nash? What about Iverson? What about Robinson (pre Duncan)?

    Then it goes back to what I pulled out before. 5 teams 51 NBA Championships.

    Then you have to go back and look at those teams again.

    Bird played with the original Big three.

    Thomas played with Dumars and a team full of Pistons.

    Magic had the Lakers.

    Jordan had Pippen.

    Robinson didn't do a thing until he got Duncan.

    Duncan had either Robinson or Manu/Tony

    Wade had Shaq.

    Shaq had Kobe.

    Kobe had Gasol

    And the Second big three had each other.

    What "real" all-star quality player does Joe have? Somebody you can mention with Dumars, Pippen, Kobe, Pierce, Allen and Gasol?

    Why couldn't Shaq win a championship in Orlando?

    Why did Barkley never win a championship?

    You have to make an admission that MVP is just coincidental when you find the amount of MVPs that are ringless and the circumstances by which these MVPs got their rings.

    They got their rings because they were on the right team at the right time.

    KG was an MVP in Minny... Why couldn't he win a championship with them?

    Let me help you. Wrong team. Wrong time.

    Had he stayed there, he would have never won a championship.

    Had Bron stayed in Cleveland, he would have not won a championship.

    Bosh in Toronto would not have sniffed championship.

    Rose in Chicago.. he has time.

    Diesel, no one denies that great players need help. The question was if JJ can be the best player on a title team, not whether he needs more help. Let me ask you two questions:

    - In which team, of all those you listed, would JJ be the best player?

    - Name 2 players who are worse than JJ and would transform Atlanta into instant title contenders if they came here? And I don't mean in addition to Horford and Smith, but instead of them. Because as I said, JJ can be the best player on a title team if the team has 4 other all star/all defensive nba type of players like the 04 pistons had.

  7. Not true.

    Spencer Heywood Still waits.

    Artis Gilmore just got in.. but he had more credentials than most people who were picked first ballot. (Bill Walton amoung others)

    Alex English is waiting. but he was never MVP

    Dennis Johnson finally got in . But he was never MVP

    Bernard King is waiting but he was never MVP.

    The way that these selections are made is toss some names up in the air and whosoever name falls into a circle is in.

    He was MVP of the ABA. ABA which people pretty much universally recognized as being mostly inferior, and that only started having a dedicated committee in the hall of fame last year.

    Just as with Artis Gilmore (who got in because of the aforementioned just created ABA committee).

    ABA MVP is nowhere near the same thing as NBA mvp. Spencer Heywood is proof of that. 30ppg and mvp as a rookie on the aba, 20ppg and only 4 all stars in the NBA.

    Even then, only 3 aba mvps are not in the hall of fame.

    So yes, KG was a lock to be on the hall of fame before boston. Yes. KG was a much better player than anyone currently on the hawks, and was the best player on the celtics. It makes no sense to compare JJ to KG.

    So, to go back to the original question: the only way JJ is the best player on a title team is if the team is very well coached and every other starter on the hawks is very close to JJ in skill.

  8. The MVP-Title connection is really very strong.

    In NBA's entire history, only 6 mvps never won a title, and that number will reduce soon (malone, barkley, nash, iverson, nowitzki, lebron).

    Conversely, the only nba champions that did not have an MVP are the1951 Rochester Royals, the 1979 seattle supersonics, and the 04 pistons. Which is why I said that for JJ to be the best player on a championship team it would have to be something like the 04 pistons, where the team has a top notch coach and all 5 players are sort of equivalent all stars (the one starter to never make an all star, Prince, was in the all defensive teams multiple times). Short of that, it is very, very unlikely that JJ wins a title as the best player.

  9. You meant to say...

    KG + 2 first ballot hall of famers.

    Even if you think that KG is better than those other guys, that doesn't diminish who they are?

    That's like Saying Wade is nothing because he's playing next to Lebron.

    Moreover, I don't think you can truly judge what JJ is without having a good sound team.

    or atleast one other guy that can demand a double team?

    Pierce and Allen only became 1st ballot hall of famers because of playing with KG and winning a title. Before that, they were borderline at best. Reggie Miller still isn't in, and if you look at Allen's career pre Boston they were very similar.

  10. The 34 year old Sam Cassell shot 49% FG - 40% 3FG and averaged 20 points and 7 assists the year Minnesota went to the WCF. He had one of his best years of his career that year. Cassell, even more than KG, was the leader of that squad that kept them steady and had the ability to make big shot after big shot. Since people love using PER and win score/48, Cassell's PER that year was a whopping 22.8 ( ridiculous for a PG, seeing that PER usually favors the high scoring, high rebounding PF types ) and had a win score per 48 minute number of .205. Both numbers trump the best seasons of Horford, Smith, AND Joe Johnson. Cassell scored 20 points or more in 41 of the 81 games he played in that year. That made him a legit #2 option that had the ability to even be a #1 option at times. Neither Horford nor Smith have ever been able to score like that. He played so well, that he earned 2nd team All-NBA.

    Spreewell was a former #1 then a #2 option type scorer who could get his own shot. On that Minnesota team, he was the ideal #3 option with his ability to score the basketball from the SF position. He was essentially their Jamal Crawford, a guy who was streaky, but could explode and have a big game every now and then. 34 games of 20 points or more and 6 games of 30 points or more for Spree that year.

    Both Hassell and Ervin Johnson were defensive guys who could limit what their man did at their respective position. Johnson was essentially a better version of Jason Collins, while Hassell always drew the assignment against the best perimeter scoring wing. Those two moves kept KG from playing center all the time, and kept Spree from having to guard the top offensive scorer at times, enabling both guys to have the energy to still play defense, but really concentrate on offense.

    Their starting 5 trumps any starting 5 that JJ has had in Atlanta. They were the perfect balance of elite offensive scoring and defensive prowess. You couldn't double KG in the post, because Cassell would kill you with the 3 ball and Spree was still a decent slasher to the hole.

    And that's not even including the high percentage 3 point shooters they could bring off the bench in the form of Fred Hoiberg, Wally Szczerbiak, and Troy Hudson, who all shot above 40% from 3 that year.

    Olowokandi was sorry for a former #1 pick, but serviceable as a stop gap center. Gary Trent ( the Shaq of the MAC ) was at least seviceable as a backup PF that played limited minutes ( posted a PER of 12.9 that season, which was better than Josh Powell, Shelden Williams, Joe Smith, or any other reserve PF we've had here ). Even Mark Madsen's goofy self brought something to the table as an energy guy that could play PF and a little C. LOL @ him and that "forearm in the back" defense that he used to play all the time.

    2003 - 04 Timberwolves

    - KG ( the superstar and MVP of the league )

    - Cassell ( the all-star PG who had a career year )

    - Spreewell ( the slasher/shooter who was a legit #3, sometimes #2 option )

    - Hassell and Johnson ( the defensive specialists in the starting lineup )

    - Hoiberg, Wally, and Hudson ( the 3 point specialists off the bench )

    - Olowokandi and Madsen ( the "dirty work" bigs that helped keep KG fresh)

    - Trent ( the reserve PF was capable of having a "nice" game 1/3rd of the time )

    That team was beautifully constructed with the addition of Cassell, Spreewell, Hassell, Johnson, Hoiberg and Madsen to that team in that year.

    Chemistry, ability and balance > ability, low IQ, and no balance

    I see that you used numbers for the Cassel part and not for the Sprewell part. Is that because 33 and 34 year old Sprewell in MN poster PERs of 14.7 and 12.1? (league average being 15).

    That team, other than Cassel at 22.8, had no one esle even at PER 16. Their 3 point specialists and "dirty work" bigs are the sort that are a dime a dozen. Hassell is still relatively young and hasn't been able to find the same minutes anywhere else in the NBA. So even if I grant Cassel, Horford, Smith and Crawford are still better than anyone KG played with during his peak years (post 2000) in MN. Not to mention that in 7 of those first round exits, 4 times it was to the western conference champion and some of the all time best teams. And all 7 of them much better than any team the hawks have faced in the 1st round with the exception of Boston.

    Point being that, yes, great players do need good supporting casts, but in the case of Joe Johnson we are talking about supporting casts that are already almost as good as him. Any better and he becomes the "supporting cast."

  11. I think you guys are mixing up the arguments a bit. One side seems to be arguing that it is not Joe's fault that the team hasn't moved beyond the 2nd round, and the other is arguing that Joe cannot be the best player on the team if the hope is to win it all. The thing is that both those statements can be true.

    As far as the debate itself, the comparison to the celtics is not a good one. At least 2 of the big 3 were better than what Joe Johnson currently is. If the hawks are looking for a blueprint, the 04 pistons would be a much better model to emulate. Lots of borderline all stars, good coherent unit and good coaching. That should be the goal. As for the celtics, as the board's resident celtics fan, let me address a few things:

    I think it was Diesel that brought up the Paul Pierce example, which was a guy who was much maligned by the fan base as a guy who couldn't get the Celtics even to playoff level once Antoine Walker left. But once he got legit help in the form of KG and Allen, he all of a sudden became a more efficient, even iconic player for the Celtics. Because he didn't have to do it every night, he sacrificed some of his shots, but made the most of the shots he took.

    Paul Pierce was never maligned by the fanbase. Antoine Walker was. Pierce made the playoffs the first year without Walker (03-04), and when the celtics failed to make the playoffs the two years after Walker's second stint with the team, the fanbase maligned Doc (in 05-06) and in 06-07 everyone knew the team was tanking for the draft.

    Sturt . . the sad thing about this thread is that of the games that we DID win in the playoffs, JJ was either THE REASON or the 2nd top reason why.

    And people saw that, but rip into the guy because he couldn't do it for 12 games, instead of 6.

    The fact is that if we had guys on JJ's level, especially if they're guys who can get their own shot . . with one of those being a big . . we probaly beat Chicago.

    Because even if JJ was off, you'd have 2 other guys who could take the scoring lead.

    People talk about KG in Boston, but the better comparison may be to talk about KG in Minnesota. KG in Munnesota was a very good player who couldn't get it done in the playoffs. 7 consecutive 1st round losses for him. And their fans talked about how he couldn't make game winning shots.

    But lo and behold, as soon as he got complimentarty guys who had the ability to take over a game and make big shots, keeping KG from doing everything, the T-Wolves damn near made the NBA Finals.

    ( Talking about Cassell and Spreewell, of course ).

    JJ and Jamal, when playing together, are essentially 1a and 1b. So imagine if we had a 1c that did most of his scoring down low? At that point, we may only need 2 of the 3 to be real good on any given night, to win a game. If all 3 were good, we'd be tough to beat.

    We were 6 - 0 when JJ got 20 pts or more . . 5 - 1 when Crawford got 20 pts or more. If we had a 3rd guy that could get us 20 pts down low on ant given night, that would be the type of asset needed to get the Hawks to the next level.

    JJ plays with much better players than KG ever played with in MN. Horford alone is better than anyone he played with there. KG made it to the conference finals with a team that started a 34 year old Sam Cassell, a 33 year old Sprewell, Trenton Hassel (who in any other playoff team wouldn't even be in the rotation) and a 36 year old Ervin Johnson. None of these players hold a candle to Crawford, Horford, and, on good days, Smith.

    I still think that KG is getting too much credit as the guy on those successful BOS teams. He was definitely a key cog and perhaps the most important but those teams were well constructed and and well coached. Our current roster pales in comparison to those BOS teams and JJ isn't the reason why. I get the premise, but don't see much symmetry between the two situations.

    No, it is actually the opposite: KG doesn't get enough credit. Paul Pierce is still playing at a similar level that he was in 08. Same for Allen. Rondo is much better. And yet the celtics are much worse. Why? KG has slowed down considerably because of injuries. When KG went down in 09, the celtics started allowing 9 points more per game. A single player being responsible for a 9 point swing in one end of the floor is incredible. This was a team that in 09 was 27-2 when he first got hurt. And he continued playing hurt, and when he aggravated the injury the celtics were 44-11. They finished 62-20. So fully healthy KG: 27-2 ; KG playing injured or out, 35-18.

    I do agree that there is no symmetry between the two teams.

    No. By the time he was traded, he was no longer considered a superstar. He was seen as a statpadder who was on the down side of his career. He had never met the promise that his stats and allstar appearances suggested. That's why they traded him.

    Yes, he was considered a superstar. And no, KG was never seen as statpadder. In fact, one of the knocks against him was precisely that he wasn't aggressive enough in looking for his shot. Criticism of him was precisely because he hesitated to "take over" offensively. The reason they traded him was never because he never met the promise. If anything, he exceeded the promise of a 5th pick. He was traded because the Wolves were going nowhere fast, so they wanted to rebuild and get cap space instead of losing him for nothing.

    • Like 2
  12. In theory, I am in favor of a hard cap.

    But in reality, I don't think a hard cap is going to work in the NBA. The NBA is a lot more like the MLB than the NFL in that only a few franchises can truly be profitable.

    In the NFL, even the Lions, which had the worst revenue of any NFL franchise the year before last, made more money than 28 of the NBA teams. The NFL, because of the popularity of football, makes a lot more money.

    Meanwhile, in the NBA, like the MLB, only a few markets are big enough to allow teams to truly make a profit. A Forbes piece from a few years ago claimed that only 5 NBA franchises made a profit before counting money from the luxury tax, but that the luxury tax was enough to put a whole bunch of teams in the black. New York, LA, Boston, Chicago and Dallas can all spend close to 100 million in payroll, get bounced from the playoffs early, and still make a substantial profit. Other franchises struggle even when spending a fraction of that money.

    As such, the solution is to redistribute money some way, and a soft cap with a luxury tax does that. In the MLB the tampa bays and the st louis cardinals of the world compete by getting money from the yankees and red sox of the world.

    In an ideal world, all teams would spend the same. In the nba, it is better to have some redistribution of income like that.

    • Like 1
  13. the decline in popularity had less to do with the perception of athletes as thugs and more with the decline of big market teams. People who see nba players as thugs aren't fans anyways.

    Ratings for finals since 96

    NBC 1996 Chicago Bulls 4, Seattle Supersonics 2 16.7

    NBC 1997 Chicago Bulls 4, Utah Jazz 2 16.8

    NBC 1998 Chicago Bulls 4, Utah Jazz 2 18.7

    NBC 1999 San Antonio Spurs 4, New York Knicks 1 11.3

    NBC 2000 Los Angeles Lakers 4, Indiana Pacers 2 11.6

    NBC 2001 Los Angeles Lakers 4, Philadelphia 76ers 1 12.1

    NBC 2002 Los Angeles Lakers 4, New Jersey Nets 0 10.2

    ABC 2003 San Antonio Spurs 4, New Jersey Nets 2 6.5

    ABC 2004 Detroit Pistons 4, Los Angeles Lakers 1 11.5

    ABC 2005 San Antonio Spurs 4, Detroit Pistons 3 8.2

    ABC 2006 Miami Heat 4, Dallas Mavericks 2 8.5

    ABC 2007 San Antonio Spurs 4, Cleveland Cavaliers 0 6.2

    ABC 2008 Boston Celtics 4, Los Angeles Lakers 2 9.3

    ABC 2009 Los Angeles Lakers 4, Orlando Magic 1 8.4

    ABC 2010 Los Angeles Lakers 4, Boston Celtics 3 10.6

    Unsurprisingly, the lowest ratings came during the era when the 4 biggest basketball markets in the nation (la, ny, chicago, boston) were not competitive.

    • Like 2
  14. Superstar is a loose definition. In my mind, superstars are the mvp caliber players who can carry teams by themselves. In that case, no, Paul Pierce has never been a superstar.

    That said, and trying hard not to sound like a homer, Joe Johnson's career is not on the same level as Pierce's, even before the big 3.

  15. ...which a source said still included the $45 million hard cap but added a phase-in of the cap over a few years.

    Of course it's VERY early in the process so I would expect alot of bargaining before something gets worked out. My guess is that the owners will be willing to go up a reasonable amount on the cap number in exchange for getting some form of non-guarranteed contracts.

    The owners seem to want rules that protect them against themselves. They got the rule in place to stop the High School to the pros leap...now they want to protect themselves from giving out lousy longterm contracts that they can't get out of. Basically they want the NFL model (IMO).

    I can't really blame them/Stern (for wanting that), I just hope both sides are willing to bargain enough and that we have a season next year.

    Sure, it is early in the process. But we are a few weeks away from free agency, and if 45 million is the starting offer, then they are very far apart. The median team payroll now is 68 million, so we are talking about cutting salaries by about 1/3. As a comparison, the NFL wants to reduce payrolls by about 18%, and the lockout has been ongoing for 2 months with no sign of ending. And unless there is a decisive legal victory for one side in the NFL lockout which would discourage one of the sides in the nba from continuing, I see the nba lockout lasting a lot longer.

  16. http://aol.sportingnews.com/nba/story/2011-05-16/sbj-nba-proposes-45-million-hard-salary-cap#ixzz1MY8wVC6I

    First proposal includes non guaranteed contracts and 45 million hard cap. Which means that every team but the kings (current payroll at 44 mill) would have to cut between 7 million (clippers at 52) to 46 million (lakers at 91).

    Given how far apart the sides will likely be after this, I expect a long lock out. Just look at how much smaller the difference is in the nfl and how long their lock out has been going on.

    And I will say that I side for the most part with the players. How can the NBA be losing as much money as they claim when there have been so many attempts at buying some of the bottom feeding teams rejected? Someone bought the nets for 300 million in 04 and sold a controlling share (but not all of it) to the Russian billionaire in exchange for 700 million to build the Brooklyn arena. From 300 to 700 in 5 years is a pretty good investment.

  17. The Bulls experiment is an study in how luck matters.

    They were one of the front runners to get KG and didn't get him because they didn't want to throw both Ben Gordon and Luol Deng in the mix. And so Ben Gordon left for free and Luol Deng is widely considered to be overpaid. Then they hired an overmatched nobody in Del Negro. And they have a looong history of draft busts (Eddy Curry, Marcys Fizer, Chris Mimm. They traded away Lamarcus Aldridge for Tyrus Thomas.

    Then they got lucky. 1st pick that got them Rose, Thibodeau got passed for headcoach by half a dozen teams, and their original favorite, D'antoni, picked the Knicks.

    They are a prime example of why in the nba it's better to be lucky than good.

  18. ESPN and it's stupid polls with stupid results. They probably spend about 5 minutes coming up with this stuff and it always favors the Boston, Chicago and LA teams that actually vote in these things.

    Was there a poll about Dallas vs LAL game 4? It probably went something like this: What happens in game 4? Lakers come back and win series (62%), Lakers take it to 6 games and lose (35%), Lakers get blown out by 36 (3%)?

    Just to clarify, this wasn't a poll. This is a contest where you win prizes if you guess several correct results in a row. In cases where the question is about margin of victory, espn tends to follow the vegas lines pretty closely.

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