“I must say, Woody… my hips are feeling just fine right now!”
Remember last week, when I said it’s unlikely the Atlanta Hawks will have a chance to eliminate anybody from playoff contention? Well, that’s technically still true as the Milwaukee Bucks stop here, at Philips Arena (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast, Fox Sports Wisconsin), but just barely.
For Milwaukee (30-42), their Tragic Number is down to 3, thanks in part to Myles Turner’s birthday bash yesterday in Indianapolis, and in part to their own 3-game losing skid, lowlighted on Monday by a last-second tip-in loss to Andre Drummond at Auburn Hills. If the 8-seed Pistons prevail at home tonight against Charlotte ahead of their Saturday night affair with the re-visiting Hawks, and if the Bucks falter in Atlanta, that’s just about all she wrote for any postseason prayers up in America’s Dairyland.
But what’s the big deal, really? There’s no use in crying over melted cheddar. All things considered, this season is an unqualified success for Jason Kidd’s staff. The Bucks’ head coach missed 15 games in mid-season to recover from hip surgery, and his replacement, Spurs acolyte Joe Prunty, held serve with an 8-9 record.
The team struggled with the squeezeplay of having Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, and Greg Monroe on the floor simultaneously, choosing to go with their 2015 free agent prize as a center. And they never could get comfortable with their rudder at point guard, Michael Carter-Williams never quite being to Kidd’s liking, up until MCW’s own season-ending hip surgery was announced at the end of February.
Even before Carter-Williams’ departure, Kidd recognized the MCW-Monroe starting tandem was hampering his defensive gameplans. Kidd benched MCW and Monroe for awhile, and has since tried to plug ‘n play with backups at the point. But a guilty verdict was handed down in the case of “The Stairs vs. O.J. Mayo”, sending Option B out for the season as well with his broken ankle.
That leaves the remaining lead-guard choices as Jerryd Bayless (now the starter) and second-year guard Tyler Ennis. After undergoing bone spur surgery back in November, Greivis Vasquez just began practicing with the team, but is unlikely to appear tonight.
The depth behind Middleton has been shaky as well. Rookie shooting guard Rashad Vaughn hasn’t quite turned the corner, so the Bucks brought in former Hawks guard Jared Cunningham on a ten-day to see if he can shake things up a bit. Bayless (44.0 3FG%, 4th in NBA) and Middleton are about all Milwaukee has in terms of perimeter shooting, although Kidd has been encouraging Ennis to look for his shot more lately.
Parker (career-high 13 rebounds plus 28 points @ ATL on Feb. 20) continues shaking off the cobwebs after missing most of last season’s turnaround due to injury. Middleton (2nd in NBA for minutes played; tied with Kyle Korver at 40.5 3FG%, 14th in NBA) struggles at times to live up to his new contract, but admirably fills in Milwaukee’s offensive gaps.
Monroe (24 rebounds in two OT games vs. ATL this season) has been steady but hasn’t shown measurable improvement in much of anything, aside from maybe blocking shots, without Drummond around to help him at the pivot. Alpha-Bits (career-high 16 rebounds plus 28 points vs. ATL on Jan. 15) continues to fill out his boxscore lines as best he can. But defensively, Giannis cannot be patrolling the perimeter and the paint at the same time, and leads the NBA with 228 personal fouls.
So with all that working against them, plus a still ridiculously young roster devoid of vets like Zaza Pachulia and Jared Dudley (probably passed Orlando as the league’s youngest; their oldest active veteran, Bayless, is 27 years old), a 30-to-35-win season should be considered a successful step forward. That is, if it were not for the Worst-to-Mediocre season of 2014-15 that sprang the Bucks into the playoffs, going from 15-67 to 41-41. Despite the high expectations at the outset, consider this season more of a correction and recalibration for Kidd and the Gang.
Any victories at this point are just Ones to Grow On for 2016-17. That includes the pair of overtime wins the Bucks have over the Hawks (42-30) this season. Neither victory was of the apply-hoof-to-tailfeather variety, and big shots in both games by Al Horford (16-for-30 2FGs, no free throws vs. MIL this season) kept the Hawks in the running. But in both contests, the Hawks’ multifaceted perimeter offense failed to stand out against a mostly limited 3-point shooting team.
In Milwaukee in January, the Hawks shot the same from deep (30.0 3FG%) as their opponents, despite lofting 20 more attempts. Back at the Highlight Factory one month later, the Bucks made a paltry 3 of their 17 3FG attempts, but percentage-wise, Atlanta didn’t fare much better with 24 more three-point shots (9-for-41 3FGs) than Milwaukee, and ultimately couldn’t take advantage of Alpha-Bits fouling out in regulation.
The Hawks weren’t great shakes up in Washington, either, through the first three quarters (10-for-30 3FGs) on Wednesday night. But then Dennis Schröder popped off a trey with three minutes to go, showcasing his versatile potential, and the spigot stayed on throughout the fourth quarter (7-for-12 3FGs), while the Hawks defense clamped down on John Wall and the Wizards for the 122-101 runaway victory. But for Atlanta’s super-sub, Milwaukee might not have needed OT to top the Hawks in either game.
Can we all just hold hands and declare it together, definitively, out loud? “Dennis Schröder is The Best Sixth Man in the East, at least!” Someone out West is sure to win the annual hardware. But among Eastern reserves with at least 15 minutes-per-game and 50 games played without starting, only Toronto’s Patrick Patterson has a better net rating (+10.9) than Schröder (+10.4).
In this category of backups, only Evan Turner (4.7 APG) averages more assists (4.6 APG), and no one averages more than Schröder’s 11.1 PPG over the course of this season. Throw in the absence of a bench sidekick like Tim Hardaway, Jr., until after the All-Star Break, and Schröder’s effectiveness only becomes starker. Take Dennis’ inside-outside threats with an invigorated commitment to defense, and he eclipses more lauded bench guys like Boston’s Turner or Cleveland’s Matty Dellave-dive-on. Plus, the precocious point guard doesn’t hit age 23 until September.
There’s a saying that the most popular man in town is the backup quarterback. Jeff Teague remains, to use Budspeak, “a big part of what we do.” But to keep from eventually getting Bibbied himself, our Agent Zero has to be a bigger offensive threat, particularly at the outset of games like this, when opponents have meager options at the 1-spot.
Despite 10 assists against the Bucks in January, Jeff shot just 4-for-13 from the field, egging Mike Budenholzer on to turn to Schröder, who promptly plopped in 16 points and added 5 dimes in just over 19 minutes. In the next matchup with Milwaukee, Jeff shot just 2-for-8 and struggled to play with a second-half wrist injury. This time, Dennis did yeoman’s work in 40 minutes (25 points, 8 rebounds, 10 assists), bringing his shooting to 16-for-29 FGs in the pair of games against the Bucks.
Washington thought they had Wednesday’s game in the bad, until they fell victim to The Budenhustle beginning in the back half of the third quarter. Rather than a Teague Takeover (3-for-10 FGs, 1-for-5 2FGs, 9 points and 6 assists in 26 minutes), Atlanta foisted a Schröder Shakedown (7-for-9 FGs, 8 assists in 20 minutes, four 3-point-assists in four fourth-quarter minutes) upon Wall and his suddenly flummoxed Wizards. The Menace also entered in the opening quarter with the Hawks down 25-15. Within five minutes, the Wizards hadn’t scored, and Atlanta tied the game. What’s the German word for “Microwave?”
Teague and Schröder need to continue making smart ballhandler decisions, as they’ll face an opportunistic Milwaukee squad that, despite their faults, are just about as eager as the Hawks (19.1 points off turnovers) to score in transition (18.8 PPG off turnovers, 3rd in NBA; league-best +6.2 PPG off TOs in March).
Paul Millsap (25.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG vs. MIL this season) was the biggest turnover culprit for Atlanta on Wednesday (5 TOs @ WAS, 3 off Wizard steals) and needs to make swifter decisions when he’s fed the ball inside, before Middleton, Alpha-Bits and the Bucks go for the strips. Hawks defenders must also play close-to-the vest on Bucks ball-handlers, forcing the action and disallowing the ability for Milwaukee’s core offensive starters to function in space.
In addition to their offensive advantages at the point, the Hawks must exploit their advantage in terms of team defense. While Atlanta’s defensive measures since January 1 (97.1 opponent points per 100 possessions, 42.2 opponent FG%, 30.9 opponent 3FG%) all lead the league, the Monroe-infused Bucks have dropped from 4th in defensive efficiency in 2014-15 to 20th (105.4 opponent points per-100) this season.
Monroe and his athletic associates (including Barnes-magnet John Henson) love to build up an edge on the interior (NBA-high 50.3 PPG in-the-paint), but are so single-minded on scoring around the rim that they’re subject to runouts at the other end. Despite their touted size, the Bucks are also dead-last in defensive rebounding (72.4 D-Reb%). Neither Bucks victory over the Hawks included Atlanta’s Kris Humphries, who played just 16 minutes in D.C. and should be well-rested in advance of this back-to-back set with the Bucks and Pistons.
With another big game in Detroit tomorrow night, there’s no need for the Hawks to be Kidd-ing around in overtime again versus Milwaukee. To make tonight a small-g good Friday, Teague’s job is to guide the starters to a sizable first-quarter lead, then to leave it to Schröder and the bench mob to make quick venison out of the Bucks.
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
