“Gin? Do you see gin? I don’t see any gin!”
Top 3 in-conference records in the NBA East? Well, for starters, there’s the Cavaliers at 12-4. Then, there’s the Celtics at 10-4. Right behind them? Your Atlanta Hawks, who come into today’s visit with the Milwaukee Bucks (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, Fox Sports Wisconsin) sporting a sound 9-5 mark versus its fellow conference teams. So, why are the Cavs and C’s looking fancy with first- and third-seeds, while your Fine Feathered Friends are peering at the playoff picture from the outside?
The conference, after Cleveland and probably Toronto, is shaping up to be a tightly wound pack for the rest of the field, down to the 11th and perhaps even the 12th seed. To distinguish oneself among that subset, it helps tremendously to take care of business on the road, especially versus teams that would (or should) not be favored to win if they were playing in your house (yes, Phoenix, I’m looking at you).
Beating Western teams is cool, but an average-or-above road record not only increases the likelihood of a 2-through-4-seed in the East, it does wonders for your team’s first-round confidence if you wind up 5-through-8.
The Cavs got tripped up by Atlanta less than a month ago, but reasserted their spot atop the East, thanks to a 6-3 record in away games. Boston is merely 5-4 at home, but they’ve got Tommy Heinsohn on the verge of writing love letters when they leave the Gahden, going 8-5 on the road so far. It’s early, but the four Eastern Conference teams with above-.500 road records rank 1-through-4 in the East, a similar deal for seven teams out West.
As for the Hawks? Well, they come into the worst-named NBA stadium (the BMO Harris Bradley Center -- what is that, even?) trying to avoid a slide to 4-9 away from Thank Goodness We’re Not T. Rowe Price Philips Arena.
After a nice 3-1 road mark to start the season, Atlanta (11-12) could only come out on top in one of their next eight away games. While those contests were packed in the space of 18 days, with two home games in the mix, the Hawks’ next nine road games are spread out over 33 calendar days, with six interspersing games back home. That allows Mike Budenholzer and the Hawks’ crack coaching staff significantly more time to prepare and adjust as needed.
South Wisconsin does it like nobody does! The Bucks’ halftime entertainment on this Flashback Friday features one-hit wonder Montell Jordan (“Let’s Ride”? “Get It On Tonite”? Please, nobody’s trying to hear that). The L.A. dance-floor crooner (now Gwinnett County preacher!) is aware he needs to get his groove on before he goes to get paid. Yet, with all respect due to Montell, there’s just one guy on the floor of this Who’s This Harris Bradley Guy Center consistently showing people How to Do It.
If you’re able to say Giannis Antetokounmpo without clicking your tongue, you’re a better person than I am. You could also say Giannis is a certified G, and a bonafide stud, already at the newly tender age of 22. This forward-guard is 6-foot-11, boasting a 12-foot-2-inch vertical, a foot-long hand and a 7-foot-3 wingspan, and while Jason Kidd can’t teach that, he’s certainly giving it his best try.
Aside from Antetokounmpo, only centers David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon have averaged over 20 PPG, 8 RPG, two blocks and two steals per game in any season. Giannis, however, is not a center, and he throws in 6.1 APG for good measure, providing Kidd a multifaceted weapon that can be deployed everywhere except beyond the offensive 3-point line (23.9 3FG%). He compiled 15 points, 12 boards and 11 assists (plus four blocks and a pair of steals) in Wednesday’s win over Portland, and his next triple-double game would already tie him with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (8) for the all-time Bucks franchise mark.
The nine-time All-Defensive Team member, coach Kidd is crafting a team with a young, defensive imprint, led by Antetokounmpo and the surprisingly nascent center John Henson (2.2 BPG in 11 games since becoming a starter, in place of Miles Plumlee). Even Greg Monroe, relegated to Kidd’s bench, is getting into the act (team-high 2.6 steals per-36, up from 1.1 last season). Buck opponents have shot an NBA-low 42.7 FG%, including 37.6 2FG% in-the-paint (outside the restricted area) and a league-low 31.8 3FG% (29.4% above-the-break).
As for offense? Well, it’s not their forte, but even without Khris Middleton around, Milwaukee (50.8 2FG%, 7th in NBA) is showing they have more than enough to fill in the gaps. Slashing power forward Jabari Parker (21.8 PPG) is slowly finding his range (46.5 2FG% from 16 feet out; 32.8 3FG%). Plus, they’ve got ATLien rookie Malcolm Brogdon (41.9 3FG%, team-high 92.0 FT%) and hired guns Mirza Teletovic, Tony Snell, Jason Terry and Michael Beasley (probable, sprained foot). That’s to say nothing of point guard Matthew Dellavedova, who deserves nothing being said of him.
In one of their finest quarters of play, the Hawks (led by a bench brigade of Taurean Prince, Tim Haradway, Jr., and Ryan Kelly) rattled off 19 consecutive points in the second quarter along the way to a 31-9 frame against the visiting Bucks on November 16.
Milwaukee did their best to scramble back in it during the second half, led by Parker’s 15-point third-quarter, whittling a 24-point Hawk lead down to three late in the final quarter. But the deficit proved just a little too big for the Bucks (39.8 team FG%) to overcome as the Hawks maxed out their record at 9-2. Atlanta’s 48.6 team FG% in their 107-100 win was the highest allowed for any Bucks opponent this season.
While the Hawks went on to stumble their way into December, Milwaukee (11-9) has prevailed in six of their past eight games, including five of their last six. That stretch included a sound thumping of the Cavs at home and a close loss to the Spurs after a 13-point halftime lead, plus – wouldn’t you know it – a pair of road wins, at Orlando and in Kidd’s personal catnip of Brooklyn.
As Bob Rathbun noted earlier today, Buckshot results in 108.8 PPG and 48.3 FG% at home, compared to 94.7 PPG and 41.4 FG% outside of Milwaukee. Thus, the Hawks need to take the things they do best and put that show on the road, if teams like the Bucks are to be defeated in their own house.
The league’s leader at 4.5 offensive rebounds per game, Dwight Howard (7 O-Rebs, 17 total rebounds vs. MIA) should decide if he wants to help produce second-chance points for Atlanta, one of the worst perimeter shooting offenses in the league (32.1 3FG%, 28th in NBA; 30.3% of FGAs from 3-point land, 12th-highest in NBA; 4-for-19 3FGs vs. MIA). Or if, alternatively, Dwight wants to help thwart quick scores by Milwaukee, the East’s top fastbreak-scoring offense (16.5 fastbreak PPG, 5th in NBA).
In transition, Antetokounmpo and Parker are likely to have a bead on Thabo Sefolosha and Paul Millsap (4 steals, 3 blocks vs. MIA on Wednesday), respectively. So, it’s probable that Howard will not want to get caught parked beneath the offensive hoop when his teammates loft long-range shots or turn over live balls (Milwaukee’s 18.9 PPG off TOs, 2nd in NBA). Notably, only one of Dwight’s seven O-rebs against the heat on Wednesday followed a teammate’s shot from outside the paint.
Instead, expect Howard and the Hawks’ pivot players to be actively involved in high screens to spring Dennis Schröder (last 4 games: 48.3 FG%, 87.5 FT%, 8.0 APG, 1.5 TOs/game), Malcolm Delaney and Tim Hardaway, Jr. (active after banging his knee vs. MIA on Wednesday) free inside.
The long arms of Henson and Antetokounmpo converging on Schröder and the Hawks’ driving guards naturally raise the degree of difficulty for shots off penetration. Rather than being stationary and watching the guards force up circus shots, Atlanta’s forwards need to move toward the corners and provide outlets for the guards’ passes.
Budball, Activate! When three-point shots go up, there is no time to admire the handiwork; the Hawks’ forwards must get back on defense and account for Giannis and Jabari, who each benefitted from some practice-session tutelage from Kussin’ Kevin Garnett this past week. Granted extra floor time with the momentary absence of Kent Bazemore (knee, mind), look for an active defensive effort from rookie Taurean Prince off the bench, especially if the starters fail to keep up in transition.
As demonstrated at the start and the close of the Hawks’ 103-95 win over Miami, Schröder (8-for-15 FGs, 7 assists, 2 TOs) is doing a better job of sensing when, and how, to call his own number. Delaney (last five games: 34.8 eFG%, 18.6 assist%; 41.7 eFG% and 28.4 assist% in prior games) gets caught up in iso-ball and must disabuse himself of the notion that he’s starring for Lokomotiv Kuban.
Howard’s primary backup, Mike Muscala, has had a career season on offense, generally boosting the Hawks’ bench production. But his biggest challenge is becoming evident on the opposite end of the floor. Moose has secured the rebound on just 16.7% of contested rebound opportunities, the lowest among 56 at-least-occasional centers averaging at least 15 minutes per game.
Granted, a lot of that can be attributed to pairings with Howard, who gets first dibs when they’re in together (Dwight+Moose +14.1 D-Reb% as a 2-man combo). But when Muscala plays the 5-spot alongside Millsap (Sap+Moose -6.5 D-Reb%), he must do a better job of boxing out and securing the board. Defensive rebounding is a task that’s especially pressing for Muscala tonight, given Millsap’s and Sefolosha’s varied defensive efforts to keep the Bucks outside the paint (49.3 PPG in the paint, 2nd in NBA).
Just like there’s no 20-point shot that at once erases a double-digit lead, there’s no 3-game victory that instantly vaults Atlanta back into contention in the East. It takes a trend to make yourselves trendy, and these Hawks are charged with getting their confidence back on track. There’s no better place to do that than on the road, where the Hawks have struggled mightily in recent weeks. It’s time to Buck the trend!
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
