“I hear what you’re saying, Coach… but with all due respect, a Frankfurter really is a sandwich!”
Back to the Crab Barrel we go! The Atlanta Hawks’ wretched road swing concludes with a visit to the home of one of the hottest teams in the East, the Milwaukee Bucks (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, Fox Sports Wisconsin).
Atlanta (37-34) could soon swoop down into a three-way tie (albeit while holding a momentary tiebreaker) for fifth in the LeBronference with another loss tonight, particularly if somebody can slip Nikola Jokic some of Indiana’s fine corn liquor before his Nuggets face the Pacers. Despite the probabilities of losing six in a row, the Hawks won’t gain any sympathy from a Milwaukee team whose upward momentum has been thwarted by Atlanta at every opportunity this season.
Tough defeats at the hands of Mike Budenholzer’s club in November and December sent the Bucks on three-game skids. They traipsed into Atlanta at 20-18, back on January 15, and stumbled out with a 111-98 loss, initiating a 2-12 stretch that seemed to doom their playoff prospects. Those hopes dimmed even further when the expedited February return of top-gunner Khris Middleton (48.3 3FG% in past 19 games) was cruelly offset by a season-ending injury for forward Jabari Parker.
Rather than folding, Jason Kidd’s team has rallied, and now sit just a game behind the Hawks for the fifth-seed in the East. While the Hawks flounder, the Bucks (36-35) have surged, on a 10-2 run since March 1. During the winning stretch that began three weeks ago, Milwaukee has joined Miami and Golden State as the only NBA teams in the top-ten of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Dennis Schröder (5-for-13 2FGs, 0-for-3 3FGs, 10 TOs in 104-100 loss @ WAS on Wednesday) would be apt to know that Milwaukee’s 19.3 points per-48 off turnovers during this run rank 3rd in the NBA, just ahead of the Wizards’ 19.0. Conversely, opponents’ 13.7 points per-48 off Milwaukee’s Buck-ups rank 5th-lowest. Ball control and mind control will once again be essential for Schröder, especially whenever Matthew Trollavedova [/selfban] enters the fray.
The Bucks excitedly return to the BMO Harris Bradley Center after a six-game road swing, suffering losses only at Memphis and Golden State. They’re on pace for their best in-conference finish since George Karl’s 2001 conference finalists, and the most victories since the Brandon Jennings-led Fear the Deer squad (46-36) succumbed to Jamal Crawford’s Hawks in a 2009 seven-game first-round series.
Kidd is getting his ship righted even while deploying not one, but two rookies in the starting lineup. Greater Atlanta Christian School product Malcolm Brogdon is about the only first-year player capable of challenging Dario Saric for Rookie of the Year honors. He ranks 3rd among the rookie crop with 10.0 PPG, shooting from deep at a 40.6% clip and grabbing a rookie-high 1.1 SPG while keeping turnovers (4.1 APG, 1.5 TOs/game) to a minimum. Meanwhile, Thon Maker supplanted Parker in the frontcourt. While he has struggled lately, Maker provides more length and energy to help the Bucks be disruptive to opposing halfcourt offenses.
The effective replacement of Parker with Middleton in the lineup is transforming Milwaukee’s offense from one dependent on paint points (NBA-high 48.0% of points in-paint pre-All_Star Break; 43.4% post-Break) to one living-and-thriving by the three-pointer (27.7 3FGA% pre-All-Star-Break; 30.5% of shots post-Break). The Bucks lofted a season-high 35 three-point attempts in their 116-98 win in Sacramento on Wednesday, sinking 45.7 percent of them. Middleton hit three triples, along with bench mates Jason Terry and Mirza Teletovic, while Brogdon and trade acquisition Spencer Hawes each nailed a pair. Many of those makes are due to one teammate drawing a lot of attention.
The absurdly long straw that stirs Milwaukee’s drink has been Giannis Antetokounmpo (team-highs of 32 points, 13 boards, six dimes @ SAC), who has lived up to every fantasy player’s fantasy. No NBA player in history has ranked among the league’s top-20 in any season for total points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks (since at least 1973-74, when the last two categories were first officially tallied). And yet the Greek Freak (21st in total assists) is very close to clearing this bar. Only Kevin Garnett (1999-2000; 2003-04) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (with Milwaukee in 1973-74) has ever been top-25 in those five categories. A strong finish for the Bucks might even earn him some 5th-place MVP votes at season’s end.
Standing in Alpha-Bits’ way is Atlanta’s Ersan Ilyasova, a teammate during much of Giannis’ first two seasons in the league. Ilyasova will need to keep his distance, figuratively speaking, allowing Antetokounmpo only enough space to either jack isolation three-pointers (11-for-44 3FGs in past two months) or put the ball on the floor and risk drawing charges. Getting a step past Ilyasova, either in the halfcourt or in transition, can easily deflate the Hawks’ defensive efforts.
The Hawks’ last victory over the Bucks in January came courtesy of the hot hands of starters Kent Bazemore and Paul Millsap, plus then-new Hawk and former Buck Junior Dunleavy off the bench (combined 11-for-17 3FGs). Millsap and Dunleavy’s long-range accuracy helped make some guy named Delaney (team-high 9 assists, 2 TOs) the brightest-looking rookie point guard named Malcolm on the floor.
Unfortunately, although milk allegedly does a body good (not so much milk chocolate, Dwight), Sap and Baze’s knee maladies make them unable to make the trip to America’s Dairyland. Atlanta will need replacement starter Ilyasova (10-for-27 2FGs, 6-for-22 3FGs as a road Hawk), and either of Kris Humphries or Mike Muscala to provide more of an offensive presence than they have done in recent contests. Better execution on their end will keep Schröder and Howard from pressing so much when the ball is in their hands.
The Hawks’ thinned-out bench shot 9-for-27 from the field in D.C., 9-for-29 in Charlotte, and 12-for-35 back home versus Portland. Once Moose’s forte (37-for-50 FGs first 11 games; 3-for-8 2FGs post-All-Star Break), Atlanta’s weathered backup big man needs to collect-and-finish around the rim during his short stints, instead of being preoccupied with his wayward outside shot (1-for-9 3FGs post-Break) to help a team desperate for reliable offense (50.2 post-Break eFG%, 25th in NBA; 101.1 post-Break O-Rating, 29th in NBA) anywhere on the floor they can find it.
Despite committing 7 turnovers, Schröder scored 33 points (8-for-12 2FGs, 4-for-7 3FGs) to help the Hawks top the Bucks, 114-110, in their last visit to Milwaukee on December 9. But it was a then-struggling Tim Hardaway, Jr. who provided the dagger off a nice feed from Howard, securing an Atlanta comeback from 20 points down at halftime.
The Bucks will blanket Hardaway (THJreak at 23 games; team-high 29 points and two blocks @ WAS) as often as possible from the perimeter. But Timmy also has the athleticism to score on cuts, something both he and Taurean Prince (along with the Hawks’ more-mindful ballhandlers) ought to exploit whenever their Buck defenders get caught flat-hoofed.
On the season, Milwaukee’s opponents have taken 29.0 restricted-area shots per game (4th-most in NBA), and none of the NBA’s other four least relentless teams in this zone allow a higher conversion rate than the Bucks (60.7 opponent restricted-area FG%).
During this particular three-point game streak, Hardaway has also helped the Hawks by eliminating his early-season woes from the free throw line (85.5 FT% last 23 games). Only the Kings, Blazers, and Knicks have fouled the Hawks more frequently this season than Milwaukee (25.0 personals per game). Having Milwaukee get excessively physical to prevent quick-finish cuts and lobs can help Atlanta keep the Bucks beyond the arm’s proverbial reach.
There remains ample time for the Hawks to fret over longer-term objectives, like finishing with a winning record this season. But for the moment, the only thing that matters is eschewing excuses, and picking up a road win to steer some long-lost momentum back in Atlanta’s direction.
~lw3
