“We both had to lead a Funky Bunch!”
Hey, Chicago Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg, are you ready to receive your gift?
Those familiar with these gamethreads are familiar with my Coach Bud Gift Theory, in which I posit that the head coach of the visiting Atlanta Hawks (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, CSN Chicago), reasonably secure in his current circumstance, lays off the gas and grants beleaguered colleagues a chance to pad their disappointing records with a win or two, especially when such opposition comes into the contest significantly shorthanded.
The CBGT hypothesis is supported by the recognition that some of Atlanta’s worst defeats are often accompanied by an uncharacteristically slow game pace. The Hawks’ record when they play below-average tempo (11-13) isn’t disastrous, while spacing the floor and shooting the ball well tends to help pump up the winning side of the ledger.
But then, you see some of those losses: by 15 points to a Lakers team without Russell or Randle, an 18-point deficit to the Pelicans that only seemed to widen once Davis got hurt. Deficits of 44 points to a Raptors team that started out the year a meager 8-6, and 36 points to a Pistons team that was having a tough time getting to .500. Two losses, over a span of six days, to a T’Wolves squad that was billed as up-and-coming but had already been fading out of playoff contention.
And then, you look at the precarious position these opponent’s coaches are in. First-time coaches, and first-year veteran sideline managers struggling to make their mark, plus longer-tenured coaches on at least a warming, if not raging-hot, seat. Only then do you wonder if the jig is filled with helium.
The first half of Monday’s 115-105 letdown to the Clippers wasn’t terribly different from the road flop in Detroit just last week. To be fair, falling behind 58-40 at halftime to an L.A. team missing Chris Paul and Blake Griffin (the latter returning one night later, just in time to watch his team blow a 19-point lead to the Embiid-less 76ers in Philly) is kind of a marked improvement from the slouchy 42-18 first quarter against the KCP-less Pistons, who were again falling out of playoff contention.
Stan Van Gundy and Doc Rivers should be sending Hallmark cards Bud’s way any day now. Each have been given a chance (two, in SVG’s case) to right their respective ships. It’s courtesy of a Hawks team (26-19) that, is playing right at, if not above, expectations, when one looks purely at the record and the standings, even with all the presents Santa Bud brings to the arena.
Hawks fans willing to reject CBGT rightfully see it as an excuse for listless and sloppy play, particularly on the defensive end of the floor when their own shots aren’t falling. A consistent theme in these defeats involves the Hawks (sliding down to 11th in pace, still 3rd in the East) allowing themselves to be ground into a tempo amenable to their opposition.
Suddenly, as the game slows down and the Hawks stop forcing the issue, struggling shooters like Marco Belinelli, Tobias Harris, Jamal Crawford, and Austin Rivers (5-for-10 3FGs vs. ATL on Monday) find their sea legs, and precious few comebacks by the Hawks, no matter how spirited, prove to be enough. That’s especially the case when the toasted Hawks swingmen, like Thabo Sefolosha, Kent Bazemore and Tim Hardaway, Jr. (1-for-6 FGs vs. LAC), aren’t matching the energy and production from the outset.
A heaping of congeniality from Coach Bud’s Hawks would be right on time for the Bulls (23rd in pace) and Hoiberg, perhaps the most side-eyed coach in the league right now. Chicago (23-23) is aiming for their third-straight win, but they enjoyed some Referee’s Delight late in Saturday’s 102-99 edging of the Kings, and managed to find a team even more moribund than they were in Orlando last night.
Before those two victories, the Bulls had dropped five out of seven, including last week’s 102-93 loss in Atlanta (Coach Bud tried to offer up some fourth-quarter bait, but the Bulls couldn’t bite hard enough). Much like Rivers, Hoiberg is pulling levers behind the curtain, in hopes his current rotation might be a consistently winning one.
You’ll forgive the good people of Marquette University for feeling a bit more chipper than usual. Their men’s college hoops team knocked off top-seeded Villanova last night, and while their fans were storming the floor in Milwaukee, alums Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler went on a theft spree down in O-town. The pair combined for ten steals in their 100-92 win against the Magic, Wade’s seven steals plus 21 points the most by any player aged 34-years-or older since Boston’s Dominique Wilkins (as per Basketball-Reference) way back in 1994.
Wade, Butler and the Bulls hope Dennis Schröder (5 TOs, one first-quarter assist and one second-quarter assist vs. LAC) will be as gracious with the basketball as Elfrid Payton (8 TOs vs. CHI) was yesterday. It was a case of too little, too late in the second half against the Clippers, but it was more effective movement and pinpoint passing from Schröder, Hardaway, and Paul Millsap (combined 18 assists, 3 TOs vs. LAC) that had the Hawks masquerading Monday’s outcome as something like a true contest, Atlanta crawling within five points of L.A.’s big lead on several occasions.
Shot-jackers like rookies Denzel Valentine (2-for-8 3FGs @ ATL last Saturday) and Paul Zipser, Nikola Mirotic (0-for-5 3FGs @ ATL), Doug McDermott (4-for-6 3FGs @ ORL) all come off the bench for Hoiberg, whose Bulls rank dead-last in perimeter accuracy (31.6 3FG%), and not much better inside the arc (47.0 2FG%, 29th in NBA). He’s turning to young Jerian Grant (3.5 assists, 1.8 TOs per-36) to help initiate the offense, ahead of marginalized point guards Rajon Rondo and Michael Carter-Williams.
Whether it’s Butler or the backups, Grant needs to find open-and-ready shooters somewhere on the floor. That’s if he intends to bounce back from a disappointing run (no assists in 20 minutes) in Orlando, his fifth time in six starts for the Bulls where he finished with two-or-fewer assists. Either that, or he needs to initiate contact on drives and get to the free throw line (95.2 FT%). Going 5-for-5 on fourth-quarter freebies versus Atlanta’s backups, Grant’s clock-stopping offense helped slow Saturday’s contest down and monumentally turn the tide for Chicago.
Robin Lopez and the Bulls would greatly appreciate the charity of early foul trouble from Dwight Howard. His first called foul on Saturday came with the Hawks up 43-15, the second and third personals assigned to him with Atlanta already up 76-46 in the third quarter. Comparatively, Bud sat Dwight on Monday when the center collected his second foul early in the first quarter. The Clips were only up 13-12 on the poor-shooting Hawks, but even with a tentative Howard back on the floor in the second quarter, the seeds for a rout were sown.
If Lopez struggles against Howard again, look for Hoiberg to turn to Cristiano Felicio (team-high 10 rebounds in 20 minutes vs. ORL), whose high pick-and-rolls helped the Bulls offense get off the ground yesterday. Like the Clippers, the Bulls hope to exhaust the Hawks’ backup big options, with Mike Muscala (sprained ankle) still questionable to play, Bruise-illian Tiago Splitter nowhere to be found, and Kris Humphries (9 rebounds in 20 minutes vs. CHI) occasionally over-utilized of late.
Before getting DNP’d after six minutes of burned-out first quarter action against the Clips, Hump recorded 15+ minutes of play in the four prior games for the first time since his days with the Wizards in December 2015. The extra rest should serve Kris well tonight, in relief of Howard.
With coaches’ votes already in, nothing Millsap does tonight will bolster his candidacy for a fourth-straight All-Star nod, the most since Joe Johnson logged six consecutive appearances from 2007-2012. Only Nique’s 9 and Lou Hudson’s 6 were longer runs.
It’s likely that lower-performing bigs in higher-favored NBA locales (or Indiana) would earn some votes, especially if supposedly serious coaches delegate the task to assistants. Seeking a “true center” on the roster, players like Howard may vulture away a few key votes, particularly if coaches wish to reward Atlanta for getting back to above-average status. Nit-pickers may look discerningly at Millsap’s career-low 47.9 2FG% and choose to look elsewhere. But as one might expect, there is no NBA luminary that cares less about a possible snub than the Paul-star.
“Whatever happens, it’s not about that,” Millsap shared with the AJC earlier in the week. “It’s about this team, and getting this team where it needs to be.” If he gets the honor once again, it will be more about representing his team more than himself. “A lot of teams have done great and should have guys in there,” he said, casually including his Hawks in the mix.
Whether a trip back to his native Louisiana is in the cards or not, expect Millsap to continue his integral role in forcing stops and boosting the Atlanta offense. Getting inside scoring (5 dunks in 42 games, 40 in 81 games last season; career-low 25.7% of FGAs within 3 feet) is harder than it has been in the days when Bandwagon Al roamed the prairie. But the always versatile forward has offset those struggles by emerging as a reliable distributor (career-high 3.9 APG; Atlanta-low 2.2 TOs per game).
Millsap’s ability to keep Taj Gibson occupied should open up the Hawks’ offense early and often tonight. That is, if Coach Bud is not in such a giving mood. His floor general, Schröder has to keep the heat up high on the Bulls’ point guards, and must not allow his teammates to lumber up the floor in transition.
Atlanta is a much spiffier 15-6 when they play games at-or-above their season-long average pace. In those six losses, none were by more than seven points, and none have occurred since Russell Westbrook’s Thunder hung on to outlast the Hawks back on December 5. Since that date, only one of those uptempo victories came against a team with a .500 or better record, and that was Chicago last weekend. High-paced ball is competitive ball for the Hawks. Anything less is charity.
You remember the old adage, “Defense Wins Championships”? That saying is quickly becoming as anachronistic as “Hang Up the Phone”. Just five years ago, when Rondo was the NBA’s leading assist-maker and Howard the leading rebounder, there were just two Eastern Conference teams, and six NBA squads overall, allowing triple-digit scoring averages. Those were the days when bigs, point guards and top-tier scorers (like Wade) didn’t need to add a steady jumper to their repertoire, when coaches could thrive playing Grindhouse halfcourt ball.
That sun has set. Now, there are only three NBA teams holding opponents below 100 points per game, and even the Grizzlies are a mere 0.6 PPG away from reducing the number of teams to two. Offense is in, as LeBron James continues to suggest to his higher-ups, his in-name-only GM straining to feed him “playmakers” the way Seymour feeds his Venus flytrap. Defensive specialization, meanwhile, is quickly being left to the withering Sefoloshas, Gibsons, and Tony Allens that remain in the NBA world.
As it pertains to offensive bars for winning NBA games, “110” is the new “100.” The message to offensively dormant teams like the Hawks (24th in NBA with 102.9 O-Rating; 96.7 in losses, 28th in NBA) and the Bulls (19th in O-Rating, 24th this month) is abundantly clear: these days, if you’re not scoring, you’re not trying. Chicago is 9-0 when they hit the 110 mark, and 16-3 (with one loss coming 115-107 in Atlanta back in November) when they score at least 105. Atlanta is 13-2 when getting to 110 points, Monday’s 115-105 loss dropping them to 18-4 when they reach at least 105.
Whichever of the Bulls or Hawks establishes their offensive groove at the beginnings of quarters and halves will find themselves not only victorious tonight, but better suited to compete come playoff time… if that’s what they wanna do. (Am I doing this right, LeBron?)
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
