“We always hang in a Buffalo Stance…”
No beads for you, Bud! Well, it’s not set-in-stone quite yet. But Atlanta Hawks’ Mike Budenholzer and his coaching staff probably won’t be heading to The Big Easy for any pre-Mardi Gras action, at least not without buying a ticket. At the minimum, the Hawks must win three straight games, beginning with a road win tonight versus the Miami heat (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, Fox Sports Sun in MIA), and then hope for some divine intervention.
Nonetheless, it’s probably for the best that someone other than the Hawks’ coaching crew is wasting time fake-game-planning for Paul Millsap and the Eastern Conference All-Stars. A couple weeks of rest, re-assessment, and re-calibration should prove beneficial for a staff and roster that endured some humbling defeats during the first half of the season, but also pulled a few plums out of the pie.
28 victories at this point of the season (11-4 since Christmas Day, 2nd in the East; 14-10 at home and on the road) is above most outsider expectations, given the sea-changes at several positions. But the Hawks’ positioning in the NBA standings also reflects how much more they could have accomplished by now, with a little tightening-up and strategic adjustments on both ends of the floor.
Despite the departure of Kyle Korver, the Hawks have improved their perimeter shooting significantly (39.4 January 3FG%, 6th in NBA; 32.6% and 29th in NBA before last month). The rise is good enough that, apparently, the memo has been passed on to Dwight Howard: Budball is back in season.
We’ve had many chuckles at Al Horford’s expense over the Hawks’ rise to modest respectability in the defensive rebounding department. But in the past month, Atlanta’s 74.0 D-Reb% was not a laughing matter, in a virtual tie with Milwaukee as the worst in the league.
The NBA’s leading cherry-picker (4.3 O-Rebs per game), Howard is indeed curbing his appetite for second-chance opportunities (3.4 O-Rebs per game in January, down from 5.4 in December). But his deep positioning for post-up and lob plays diminishes Atlanta’s defensive cohesion, whenever opponents get live-ball stops and move in transition.
The thin bench options behind Howard and Millsap only exacerbate the defensive rebounding issues, and the rush by teammates to help compensate inside are part of the reason the Hawks slack on opponents attacking from the corners. Atlanta is one of just four teams, and the only team in the East (Dallas, Phoenix, Sacramento), allowing foes to hit on over 40 percent of threes from both the left and right corners.
Beyond getting back in position for rebounds, Dwight also finds himself increasingly out of position to help with blocks (2+ swats just once in his last 20 games; 12 times in his first 20 games). Rectifying defensive positioning and activity can enhance the Hawks’ already solid defensive rating (6th in the NBA since January 1), allowing them to sustain competitive ball even when they’re amidst the occasional offensive swoon.
Howard has to entrust his teammates, as they execute their first-shot plays, and abandon the offensive paint quicker. That’s particularly if he is to help the Hawks get over their first-quarter malaise (minus-5.7 1st quarter net rating, 2nd-worst in East, slightly worse than Miami’s minus-5.3).
It’s apropos that the heat are the hottest team in the East right now, albeit a tad startling. When last we left Erik Spoelstra’s club, Miami, losers at Philips Arena by a 103-95 score on December 7, were shorthanded and in the middle of a rough slide. Through January 13, they had won just once in 11 games, just twice in 15 games, just four times in 22 games.
They’re still shorthanded even today. Josh McRoberts (foot stress fracture) and Justise Winslow (labrum tear) are both probably out for the season. Josh Richardson (sprained foot) hasn’t played for weeks, Luke Babbitt remains questionable with an injured ankle, and James Johnson (probable) suffered a shoulder stinger in his last game. But just as things started looking bleak, the heat came out of nowhere like a Royal Rumble-winning signature move.
“It’s the East,” Dion Waiters reasoned to the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, “You can win five games, and be right back in the playoff hunt.” The heat went on to prove his assertion by rattling off eight consecutive victories, a streak highlighted by Waiters serving up back-to-back game-winning threes to topple the Warriors and Nets last week. Dion himself missed a chunk of time between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day due to a groin tear, and the never gun-shy gunner has enlivened Miami’s offense (27th in NBA for O-Rating, but 13th since Jan. 15) by simply picking up where he left off.
“I’d rather go 0-for-30 than 0-for-9,” Waiters (21.8 PPG, 48.9 3FG%, 4.8 APG during the win streak), the reigning Eastern Conference Player of the Week, postulated yesterday, “because, you go, 0-for-9, that means you stopped shooting. That means you lost confidence.” One wonders if the Philly native followed that plagiarized quip with, “I don’t want to be the next Michael Jordan. I only want to be Kobe Bryant.”
Now, despite being a half-game in front of the 15-seed, the heat (19-30) find themselves within four games of the 8-seed. Seeing badly-struggling teams in the 8-through-11 spots, Miami is starting to catch a case of playoff fever. “Same goal we had at the beginning: make the playoffs,” insisted forward James Johnson on Monday. It ain’t no (re)building year for us.”
That we’ve gotten this far without mentioning Miami’s two leading scorers is telling. Hassan Whiteside’s double-doubles haven’t been as impactful (11.6 PPG and 10.7 RPG during streak, down from 16.6 and 13.7, respectively) as he continues to struggle staying on the floor and out of foul trouble.
Count Blockula is adequately sealing off the rim, but he can’t quite sink his teeth into opposing ballhandlers beyond the restricted area, certainly not without some steady help. Despite his imposing presence, Miami allows an NBA-high 6.7 field goals per game in this interior zone (in-the-paint, non-restricted area).
A sprained ankle was bothering Whiteside as he slogged through last week’s game in Brooklyn. Coach Spo sat him in favor of Willie Reed, who defensively keyed the heat’s fourth-quarter comeback from 18 points down, then put up 20 points on 9-for-11 shooting to help the heat win in Chicago two nights later. Reed (73.5 FG% during streak) has not been the only surprise coming off the bench in Miami’s depleted frontcourt.
Okaro White is not your Superman. He’s not the kind of guy that you can leave open, and think that everything is okay (61.5 FG%, 55.6 3FG% in last 4 games). On Miami’s roster thanks to a roster exemption, the 6-foot-8 stretch-four has done quite a bit during his two 10-day-contract periods, making key plays during the winning streak to remain in Coach Spo’s late-game rotations.
Okaro has been White-hot, enough so that the team is reportedly looking to give one of the other heatles the heave-ho before White’s contract expires on Sunday. Disappointing free agent pick-up Derrick Williams (48 seconds of play in the past two weeks) is the most likely suspect. Tonight’s game may represent a last-chance for Williams or Babbitt to prove their worth and, maybe, keep Pat Riley from cutting bait.
Don’t expect any ring-chasing trade-deadline demands from Goran Dragic. Averaging 21.6 PPG (51.0 FG%, 42.3 3FG%) and 6.0 APG this month, the Dragon is quite satisfied with the direction of the team, especially compared to his situation in Phoenix where he was surrounded by redundancy. “I feel like I’m in the right spot,” he told the Palm Beach Post recently. “The city is awesome, the fans are great, the organization is the top organization in the league.”
Waiters’ emergence as an extra-passer and a quick-fire shooter has relieved the point guards, helping Dragic (career-high 26.6 Usage%) and Tyler Johnson (27 points, 13 in 4th-quarter, 4-for-5 3FGs off-bench @ ATL on Dec. 7) cut down on the ballhandling turnovers. Improved shooting from Rodney McGruder (47.4 3FG% during streak; 30.7% before) and Wayne Ellington (4-for-9 3FGs @ ATL on Dec. 7) has further elevated the heat’s efficacy on offense.
Tempering the heat tonight involves the Hawks’ defenders shooing Miami’s jump-shooters out of those pesky corners. Two days removed from a 68-minute war of attrition with the Knicks, it will really help Atlanta’s marathon men if a rehabbed Thabo Sefolosha (groin strain) can contribute on the floor.
After helping Kent Bazemore chase Carmelo Anthony all over the court, Millsap should find more room to roam at both ends versus Miami’s limited stock of forwards. Reinforcements in the backcourt should include Lamar Patterson, who returns on a 10-day contract after a decent run in the D-League. Coach Bud likes Patterson’s passing and versatility, and may turn to him in mid-game situations if the lead is close, and to rookies DeAndre’ Bembry or Taurean Prince if the lead is huge in either direction.
As one might imagine, Dennis Schroder has been a plus/minus negative, or a net-zero, in every game the Hawks have lost by double-digits. He caught somewhat of a defensive break without Derrick Rose on the floor Sunday, but he’ll need to make great reads to keep Dragic from feasting off screen plays and drives to the hoop.
The Hawks remain ahead of only Cleveland (ha.) in allowing 0.90 points per possession and 50.5 eFG% on P&R ballhandler plays. Miami ranks second in the league with 34.8 drives per game, and pass out of them an NBA-high 38.1% of the time, but score only 44.3 FG% on shot attempts from those drives (27th in NBA; Atlanta’s 44.2% ranks 28th). Just a quick diversion from Millsap or Howard should be enough to produce wayward shots.
While Atlanta’s swingmen need to anticipate Miami’s kickouts off penetration, their bigs must shield Whiteside and the heat from tip-ins and second-chance rebounds. Also, knowing the halfcourt habits of frontcourt personnel like Whiteside is key. The heat pass only 16.6% of the time (last in NBA, tied with Detroit) off of touches in the paint. When Whiteside brings the ball down below his shoulders, it could be ripe for the picking if the Hawks act quickly.
Howard (five straight double-doubles) was sloppy during his last visit to Miami (5 TOs in 24 minutes, during a 93-90 Hawks win on Nov. 15). But he was downright masterful the last time the two teams met in December (9-for-11 from the field, 5-for-6 from the free throw line, 17 rebounds, four assists, one turnover), thoroughly flummoxing Whiteside for three quarters.
The Hawks don’t need to engage in another 48-plus-minute dogfight, certainly not with James Harden and the Rockets lying in wait tomorrow in Dwight’s former stomping grounds. If Howard and the Hawks handle their transition and defensive tasks well, especially from the outset, they’ll find themselves in an ideal late-game situation tonight, one where Waiters’ hero-ball tactics won’t matter.
As for Coach Bud? Heck, he can laissez les bon temps rouler just as well from home.
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
