“FOUND: Something Steph Curry can NOT do well!”
You wanna lock down a playoff spot in the East? Win your games on the road. Go all the way back to 1984, the first time NBA conferences carried eight teams into the playoffs, and you’ll find that among the Eastern Conference teams on the outside looking in, not one finished their season with an away-game record of 19-22 or better.
For teams like the Atlanta Hawks (14-15 on the road), a winning road record makes the rest of the regular season schedule academic. This upcoming 5-game road trip is loaded with landmines, including tonight at the high-flying Golden State Warriors’ house (10:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast, NBATV, CSN Bay Area). But if the Hawks continue to shake free of their winter doldrums, take care of business against lesser teams, and pull off a big win or two, they can sew up their ninth-straight playoff appearance, in a nicer spot than most.
The biggest issue for the Hawks going into tonight’s game in Oaktown? Trick-shot-artist extraordinaire-turned-MVP Stephen Curry is questionable to play, perhaps resting the twisted ankle he played through during Saturday night’s stunning overtime victory in Oklahoma City. Most threes in a game? Most threes in a season? Most buckets in the league this season from 30-feet-and-out? Most consecutive games with a three-pointer? All NBA marks established, re-established, and/or newly-shared by Curry in the past week alone. Not too bad! Why, his performances have become Abdul-Rauf-esque!
Curry will at least be on-hand for a heroes’ welcome, as the Warriors return to Oracle Arena (24-0 at home, last home loss to Chicago on January 27, 2015) for the first time since February 9, completing their arduous cross-country, cross-All-Star-break trip in grand style. As much of a Steph infection that Curry (36 points on a personally tepid 14-for-22 shooting from the field, 5-for-11 on 3s @ ATL on Feb. 22) has inflicted upon the league, Atlanta probably prefers to gameplan for tonight hoping he’ll be on the floor, as his presence takes one less excuse for a letdown performance by the Hawks off the board.
Head coach Steve Kerr’s staff must be aware that these Hawks have already blown games to teams missing the likes of Kyrie Irving, Jonas Valanciunas, Al Jefferson, Rudy Gay, Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, Blake Griffin, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, and Hassan Whiteside. So sitting Curry at this juncture wouldn’t be a terribly risky decision. For the Hawks (33-27), the task ahead if Curry sits is making sure tonight doesn’t become The Shaun Livingston Show.
Be it Curry, Leandro Barbosa or Livingston, Atlanta guards Jeff Teague and Dennis Schröder must put Golden State’s floor leaders to work by maximizing their lateral movement. That’s done by compelling them to work through multiple screens on defense, or applying pressure on the ballhandler from halfcourt whenever the Warriors have the ball, working them toward the sidelines instead of the hoop.
Heavy minutes for Livingston (2-for-14 on 3s in two seasons w/ GSW) would certainly take a three-point threat off the board. Thus, limiting his ability to post-up the Hawks’ guards, and to drive-and-kick outside to perimeter threats like Klay Thompson (41.3 3FG%) and Harrison Barnes (41.2 3FG%, 5-for-14 3FGs @ ATL), would be key to rendering his input negligible.
Like Curry, sixth-man Andre Iguodala (hamstring) was shelved for today’s shootaround ahead of tonight’s game, although the likelihood is greater that Iguodala plays. The Hawks were successful in neutralizing point-forward Nicolas Batum in Sunday’s win over Charlotte, and similar principles should be in play here with Iguodala (3-for-12 FGs, 0-for-6 3FGs @ ATL), assuming he suits up, and Draymond Green (2-for-10 FGs, 0-for-4 3FGs, 4 TOs despite 14 rebounds and 9 assists @ ATL).
Green has been less Donkey from Shrek, and more Eeyore from Winnie the Pooh lately. He’s been lashing out first at Miami’s Hassan Whiteside, then at coaches and teammates, as he has struggled to get good looks (28.1 FG% 0-for-9 3FGs) in the last four games of Golden State’s road trip. He’s been less effective of an interior shooter at Oracle Arena (49.3 2FG%) than on the road (53.7 2FG%). Paul Millsap and the Hawks’ forwards must disrupt his passing lanes and force tough shots without fouling. They must also be mindful of the need to crash the defensive boards and not getting caught ball-watching when Warrior shots are hoisted.
Before outlasting the Hawks in ATL, the Dubs were torched by Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum (72 points, 12-for-16 3FGs) in Portland, then eked past the Clippers despite a combined 65 points by Chris Paul, Jamal Crawford, and J.J. Redick. In Golden State’s next game, Atlanta’s starting backcourt of Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver could only muster 20 points (2-for-9 3FGs) between them, leaving the heroics mostly to reserves Dennis Schröder and Tim Hardaway, Jr. (13-for-21 FGs, 30 points) as Atlanta crawled back into contention from 23 points down in the third quarter.
Last week, Miami was able to gain a lead in the final minute against Golden State, thanks to Dwayne Wade’s 32 points and a 15-point (3-for-3 3FGs) effort from backup Josh Richardson. Russell Westbrook contributed a double-double (26 points, 13 assists) for the Thunder on Saturday and might have been able to put a lid on the Warriors in regulation, but for his 0-for-6 shooting on threes (2-for-16 FGs beyond 5 feet) plus seven turnovers.
Outside shooting by the Hawks needs to be on-point, at least for early stretches during tonight’s game. Atlanta has become accustomed to wearing out opponents in the paint (+3.2 net PPG in-the-paint, 6th in NBA), in hopes the home-run perimeter shots (34.0% of 4th quarter shots being 3FGAs, 7th in NBA) will arrive in the fourth quarter. It worked out on Saturday when Kent Bazemore and Al Horford’s threes gave the Hawks the breathing room they needed against hard-charging Charlotte. But against Golden State, the outside jumpshots need to serve as the body blows to set up interior plays later.
Post-waiver-wire acquisitions Kris Humphries and Anderson Varejao will be suited up and ready to play in a pinch, if needed. Both will help spell the rebounding gaps brought on by the respective injury departures of Atlanta’s Tiago Splitter and Golden State’s Festus Ezeli.
In crunch-time situations, the Warriors have held opponents to a league-low 16.7 3FG%. But in those closing quarters, Warrior opponents score a league-high 47.4 points-in-the-paint per-100 possessions. That’s fine-and-dandy when the game is a laugher by then, or if Curry is around to serve as a late-game savior. But if Atlanta can successfully spread out Andrew Bogut (5 blocks @ ATL, incl. 3 crucial 4th-quarter swats at the rim as GSW pulled away) and Green early by making them work the defensive perimeter, those players will be less likely to deny cutters late.
A surprising win, with or without a healthy Curry, would make for a nice start to what could be a momentous road trip for Atlanta. But as important as a road win, for the Hawks, would be a competitive effort from the jump.
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
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