“Wade in the Water…”
Hail, hail, the gang’s all* here! What the heck do we care now?
*Well, just about the whole gang is back for the Atlanta Hawks is back, ready to kick off the post-All-Star schedule with tonight’s meeting with the Miami heat (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast, SUN Sports). And Hawks Nation couldn’t possibly be happy… umm… happier, that is!
The GM-foreplay session otherwise known as NBA Trading Season finally wrapped up yesterday, and few teams came away pregnant with a title contender due to arrive in June. After the smoke cleared at the deadline, every Hawk that was bantered about for months on end, by media and fans alike, was still standing right here in Georgia Granite Gray.
The two players that did get sent packing were among the most forgotten. Third-stringer point guard Shelvin Mack reunites with Gordon Hayward and Quin Snyder in Utah in hopes of an expanded role. Meanwhile, the season-long developmental plans for Justin Holiday were kicked to the curb, as he was dealt to Chicago. As part of that 3-way deal, our old friend Kirk Hinrich will give it another go in the 404.
Yes, Al Horford is still an ATLien. He did indeed have to leave the country, though – off to Mexico for vacation, then a quick globe-trot to Canada as a willing, last-minute All-Star replacement. Hate it or love it, Al’s here for as long as Coach/Exec Mike Budenholzer is around to admire him.
Horf does absolutely everything the Hawks staff asks him to do, and swears off doing a few things that they ask him not to do. No overpursuing offensive rebounds. No diving and wrestling with minimum-contract opponents for 50/50 balls bouncing below his waist. Let your teammates help you out on the glass. He’s absolutely “integrAl” to everything Budenholzer planned to do since the coach first arrived here from San Antonio.
Bawse remains a 50% shooter from the floor despite raising his three-point shot volume by nearly 500 percent. He’s still a key component to the Hawks’ improved defensive efficiency despite poor defensive rebounding, and he’s well on pace to send his prior-season tallies in blocked-shots out into the second row.
If Al chooses to cash in on a multi-year-guaranteed Max-infused deal this summer, Atlanta’s brain trust is confident they have options (well short of a 5-year Max, but nothing approaching the mythical Hometown Discount) that beat whatever 4-year deals are thrown his way from outsiders (including the tax-haven teams) in terms of take-home cash. If Budenholzer is Dr. Frankenstein, Al Horford is the monster he’s counting on, for better or worse, and yesterday’s non-events made that clear.
When last we saw Hinrich (unavailable tonight) with the Hawks, it was in the 2012 Playoffs, when he returned to the bench as Horford arrived for the final two games of the ill-fated first-round matchup with the Celtics. The prior postseason, Captain Kirk was the starting point guard, capably guiding the Hawks toward an upset of the Magic – until his hamstring gave out with just three minutes left in Game 6, forcing Atlanta to turn the floor-leader keys over in the next round, to a fresh-faced Jeff Teague.
In that time, Teague has transformed from OMG-is-he-ready to Y’know-he-ain’t-so-bad, to steady playoff-caliber starter, to All-Star on a conference leader, to a shaky-ankled trade target in 2016. As was the case with Horford and perhaps Kyle Korver, Hawks Brass was on the phones waiting for a deal that would knock their socks off. And yet there they stood as the sun set on Thursday, shoes still laced tight.
Coach Bud still believes there’s more juice worthy of squeezing out of Teague’s orange, and Jeff’s solid, resurgent play in the weeks prior to the All-Star Break (20.0 PPG, 51.1 FG%, 53.8 3FG%, 5.5 APG in February) lends credence to that notion.
“We really like our group,” Budenholzer crowed yesterday, after somebody apparently yanked the pull string in his back. He intends to rely on the pillars of Horford and Teague, along with All-Star forward Paul Millsap, plus improved shooting from Kyle Korver (51.7 February 3FG%), a bounceback from the struggling Kent Bazemore, and enhanced bench production from Dennis Schröder, Hinrich, Thabo Sefolosha, Mike Scott, Mike Muscala and/or Edy Tavares, to carry the day through a very daunting close to the regular season.
Going forward, here is what the Hawks (31-24) are up against. After squandering much of a fairly cupcake schedule, Atlanta has the toughest schedule of opponents remaining in the East, a collective 55% opponent winning percentage. No team in the East (including five teams currently at 50%) has a closing slate that even approaches Atlanta’s.
They’ll face juggernaut Golden State twice in a span of ten days. Then there will be back-to-back nights at Staples versus Kobe and the Clippers, part of a five-game road swing that concludes in second-seeded Toronto. Five of their final seven regular season contests are against the East’s current Top 3: the Cavs, Raps, and Celts. Add a few dashes of playoff-hungry teams (Pistons twice, Wizards thrice, Hornets, Bulls, heat, Jazz, Pacers, Grizzlies, Rockets) to taste, and you’ve got yourself quite a hearty stew.
There are 15 home games left in this 27-game stretch. But a third of them come during this five-game homestand that begins tonight and concludes the month of February. Including tonight and tomorrow’s game (vs. Milwaukee), ten of their next 19 games will be on back-to-back nights. Are these Hawks up to the task of facing adversity and finishing strong? We’ll find out soon, because if the NBA Trade Deadline showed anything, most of the NBA Southeast has no plans of relenting against the reigning division champs.
Charlotte (3 GB of ATL, winners of last 3 games) always seems like they’re one-step-forward-two-steps-back, but the Hornets re-tooled after losing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist again, acquiring Courtney Lee from Memphis ahead of Al Jefferson’s return to action. Washington (5.5 GB of ATL, division-best 7-4 vs. Southeast teams) reunited smoldering Sun Markieff Morris with Marcin Gortat and Jared Dudley, news that seems to have reinvigorated their aging center. Orlando (6.5 GB of ATL) won’t have the Hawks to kick around, but they brought in some veteran talent to couch around Dunk Contestants Victor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon for a heady stretch run.
And what about Miami (29-24, 1 GB of ATL, winners of last two games w/ ATL)? Well…
Maybe the biggest winners of all in yesterday’s limited player movement action were Micky Arison’s pockets. Mastermind Pat Riley saved the heat owner quite a bit of repeater tax dough by getting the team below the luxury tax line, and he did it without moving any of stars Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade or even free-agent-to-be Hassan Whiteside.
Having barely missed the postseason in 2015, the playoffs remain of paramount importance to the heat. Not the least of those reasons is because this summer’s first-rounder (top-10 protected) likely goes to Philadelphia anyway, courtesy of the LeBron 2010 compensation and, subsequently, fleeing LeBron’s commandeered Cavs trade for Kevin Love that sent Thad Young from Philly to Minnesota in 2014.
Nonetheless, any excitement in South Beach over keeping the Big Two around for the playoff run has been muted. Horford’s cross-continental trek during All-Star weekend came as a result of Bosh discovering another potential blood-clot scare, this time in his strained calf. While there’s still hope, a return to blood thinners for the heat’s leading scorer could put him on the shelf for a few months, at the very least.
Lightly-used Chris Andersen and Jarnell Stokes became balance-sheet casualties of the trade deadline, leaving Miami with Whiteside, virtual American Airlines Arena statue Udonis Haslem, and Josh McRoberts to back up Luol Deng (likely shifting to the 4-spot, as rookie Justise Winslow takes over at small forward) and Amar’e Stoudemire.
In recent weeks, Coach Spo had been benching Whiteside for whole games (including during Miami’s 105-87 home win over the listless Hawks on January 31), and even sitting him for whole fourth quarters. Now without Bosh, and with Stoudemire (5-for-7 FGs, 5 O-Rebs vs. ATL on Jan. 31) not having logged a 30-minute game since December 2014, Spoelstra will need his moody big man to step up in a big way going forward. But Whiteside won’t be available tonight, since a flagrant-2 elbow toward the Spurs’ Boban Marjanovic on February 10 will have him suspended for tonight’s contest.
The Miami bigs will be desperate to avoid early foul trouble, something the heat is customarily quite good at doing (league-low 17.5 personals per-48). It’s up to the Hawks’ guards and wings to drive and cut to the basket for shots at the rim, while the bigs pick-and-pop early and often. Atlanta can then flip the script in the second half with Millsap and Horford attacking the rack as Miami’s options thin out.
The Hawks have been pushing the tempo (5th in pace since Jan. 1; Miami ranks 27th) and are capable of wearing down what’s left of Miami’s frontline if they look for good shot opportunities early in the shot clock and move the ball cross-court.
Wade, like Bosh, had been quite the ironman for Miami all season long, on pace for his most regular-season appearances since 2010-11. But now he’s suffering from soreness in the back of a knee, and is a gametime decision for tonight’s affair (the heat host Washington tomorrow). His sitting out would leave Goran Dragic (12.2 PPG) as the heat’s leading scorer among returning starters, on a team that went into the break ranked 24th in offensive efficiency. Rotator cuff surgery for second-year player Tyler Johnson leaves the heat similarly thin at the guard spots if Wade cannot go.
For however long Wade (31.6 usage%, 5th in NBA) sits, Dragic at least won’t have to deal with the struggles trying to mesh his own ball-dominant play with Wade’s. Dragic will have free range to Tetris his way into the lane (what he recently called his “attack mode”) in search of layups and the occasional kick-outs to Gerald Green (team-high 4.3 3-point attempts/game, 31.9 3FG%), McRoberts and Deng (36.1 3FG%). For as long as Spoelstra can tolerate it, Green will resort to Go For Yours offense in an attempt to pick up the slack.
Teague and Schröder have to apply pressure up the court and stay with Dragic and Beno Udrih on drives, leaving it to the wings and forwards to intercept the Miami guards’ passes to the perimeter and kickstart the transition offense. Korver and Bazemore also need to alternate perimeter defense with help-rebounding duties.
From Kyrie Irving and Jonas Valanciunas, to Al Jefferson and Rudy Gay, to Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight to Tobias Harris and Blake Griffin, you could field a nice little All-Star Game with the array of NBA stars absent on teams that went on to beat the Hawks anyway this season. The Hawks’ offensive execution especially at critical junctures (late games, falling behind by double-digits) has long been, as Budenzolzer says ((pull-string)), “not where it needs to be,” a key part of the blame he laid to explain the underwhelming pre-All-Star start to the season.
Miami is 11-2 this season in games decided by 5 or fewer points. Even without their two top scorers, top rebounder and shot-blocker, top 3-point shooter, and top assist-man, this isn’t a team Atlanta wants to leave hanging around late in the second half.
This homestand will go a long way toward establishing whether these Atlanta Hawks are a team that desires homecourt advantage in the playoffs, or even the playoffs in the first place, and whether they’re a squad that’s out to make noise in the playoffs, noise that’s not a whimper, once they get there. The gang’s all here. And they understand that it’s up to them to remind Atlanta’s rabid hoops fans why they should care.
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
