One trip to The Varsity will change your life, Nikola!
Our predictably unpredictable Atlanta Hawks are going nowhere -- at least, in the standings, they are. While several Eastern Conference clubs are beating up on one another, the Hawks will continue their lurch toward the All-Star Break by playing Western Conference teams, like the visiting Denver Nuggets tonight (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, Altitude Sports in DEN).
Despite another horrible home loss, this time to Utah last Monday night, Atlanta remains closer to the East’s 2-seed (Boston) than they are to the 7th seed (Chicago). That means, aside from a possible slide down to the 6th seed, below Jeff Teague’s surging Pacers, the Hawks (30-22) are likely to remain smack in the middle of the playoff picture, unimpacted by the shifting sands around them. Another skin-of-their-teeth victory, another double-digit defeat, won’t make much difference in the near-term.
The Nuggets, reinvigorated with passing wizard Nikola Jokic at center, are interested in staying in the 8th-seed in the West. The team hasn’t been to the playoffs since getting dispatched by Steph Curry and Jarrett Jack’s upset-minded Warriors in 2013.
In their case, Denver is slightly closer to 7-seed OKC than they are to the 15-seed Lakers. Willing to commit to second-year pro Emmanuel Mudiay (out tonight with a back injury), Denver is apparently disinterested in the 2017 bumper crop of point guards to be had in the lottery. Head coach Mike Malone is hopeful his early-season experimentation (with Jokic off the bench, or starting at power forward) didn’t blow his team’s postseason chances.
Home to the lowest average attendance in the NBA, the Pepsi Center was sold out last Friday for a Nuggets game against Milwaukee. The Greek Freak is often worth the price of admission, but he alone isn’t what’s filling up the arena for a Bucks-Nuggets game.
Jokic has tantalized with his crafty moves and zippy dishes served from the high and low post. Starting regularly only since mid-November, his ability to move the ball as a big (5.8 assists per-36, 1st among NBA centers) is drawing comparisons to Arvydas Sabonis, Vlade Divac, and Marc Gasol. “I believe the only muscles you need in basketball,” Jokic was quoted by Sports Illustrated as saying, “are the ones in your brain.”
The Joker’s passing has been able to offset the steep learning curves for Mudiay and two rookie guards, Jamal Murray and Atlanta native Malik Beasley. His efficient scoring (65.0 TS%, 3rd in NBA) has allowed the Nuggets to bubblewrap Danilo Gallinari (out with a groin strain), Wilson Chandler and Kenneth Faried (starting tonight, after missing Monday’s 110-87 win over Dallas for personal reasons) as GM Tim Connelly works the phones for trades. And while Giannis’ Bucks, Porzingis’ Knicks and Joel’s 76ers have been settling southward of late, Jokic’s Nuggets (23-28) has moved to the top among the West’s sub-.500 clubs.
Denver still has a sour taste from Atlanta’s visit back in December. They were up 108-100 with just 98 seconds to go when some fortuitous whistles (and a technical foul called on Malone) granted the Hawks nine unanswered free throws to close out the proceedings. Six of Dennis Schroder’s 12 fourth-quarter points came from the free throw line. Schroder has 27 points in the game, followed by Paul Millsap, who went 8-for-10 from the line to finish with 20 points.
Jameer Nelson has been filling in for Mudiay, the Nuggets 5-4 in this latest span. Malcolm Delaney struggled to keep Nelson, who turns 35 years young tomorrow, in front of him during the December matchup. Both he and Schroder have to stop Denver from making hay out of dribble penetration.
Jokic is seeking to bounce back after being generally ineffective in that December contest (fouled out in 19 minutes, 5 TOs). At turns, he’ll try to work Dwight Howard (DNP’d in December @ DEN) into foul problems and draw Atanta’s center away from the basket. Howard will do well to stay at home in the post and thwart Jokic’s attempts to connect with cutting teammates like Faried, Gary Harris and Will Barton (season-high 31 points, 5-for-7 3FGs, 8 rebounds, 5 assists vs. DAL on Monday).
The Nuggets center and guards will also be on the lookout for Denver’s many three-point shooters (even without Gallinari), most notably stretch forward Darrell Arthur, who sinks 1.5 threes per game at a 50.7 3FG% clip. In the five games since Thabo Sefolosha was shelved to heal a groin injury, Hawks opponents have hit on just 32.1% of their three-point attempts (10th lowest in NBA since Jan. 29), which would be really encouraging if Atlanta was shooting better than 31.1% (25th in NBA) themselves.
Millsap and the Hawk forwards have to be sufficiently familiar with Denver’s personnel to know which opposing player is going to loft shot from the perimeter and which are likely to put the ball on the floor and barrel toward the hoop. Faried’s return provides a boost to Denver’s NBA-best second-chance scoring, so boxing out the Manimal, Jokic, and Jusuf Nurkic is key to the Hawks suppressing their opponent’s offense.
The win over Dallas notwithstanding, Denver is all about offense. Atlanta needs to exploit the Nuggets’ lackadaisical defense (110.2 D-Rating, 30th in NBA), although Denver does perform marginally better on the road (109.4 road D-Rating, 24th in NBA).
The Nuggets allow 18.7 PPG off turnovers, making it incumbent on Schroder, Kent Bazemore, and Tim Hardaway. Jr. to pounce as every transition scoring opportunity arises. Sefolosha’s absence has been most felt in this area, as opposing players have turned the ball over just 11.6 times per game, compared to Atlanta’s 15.2.
Millsap insists that a return to top-notch defensive intensity is the key to avoiding another huge letdown. “We have to get back to being that defensive powerhouse that we were earlier,” he told the AJC on Monday, after the Hawks got tuned up by the Jazz.
Bazemore disagrees. “I don’t think it’s defense,” he retorted. “I think we put ourselves in a tough position with quick and hurried shots, not quality shots, and scrambled back on defense.” Baze added, “We got to move the ball. That helps everything else.” While the tie always goes to the All-Star in any disagreement, the correct answer to the Hawks’ in-game woes is usually somewhere in the middle. If they figure it out soon, they might finally be going places.
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
