“… AND SEND ATLANTA THE INVOICE!”
Welcome to the NBA Crab Barrel! Cleveland is well outside of it, and Toronto has figured its way to the top of the rim. But after that, it’s catch-as-catch-can among eight Eastern Conference competitors, including our floundering Atlanta Hawks and tonight’s visitors, the Detroit Pistons (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, Fox Sports Detroit).
A mere two games separate third-seeded Chicago from tenth-seeded Indiana. While the Hawks enjoyed some time above the fray, they now find themselves stuck in the middle with the Pistons (10-10), who hope to nab their third-straight victory at the close of their four-game road trip. How you get to 10-10, and where you’ve been in recent years, certainly colors your team’s outlook around the league.
Aside from some brief maladies, excused absences and DNP-Rest days, the Hawks have been a reasonably healthy outfit, even more with the return of forward Mike Scott to the fold. All-Star Paul Millsap’s recent hip problem has been disconcerting, but his absence was not the reason Atlanta fell in Phoenix on Wednesday, to a Suns team that was without a vital cog as well.
A team stocked with veterans and ample playoff experience, led by a former Coach of the Year that guided his franchise to the conference finals two seasons ago, will never be looked upon fondly for its descent to 10-9 after a decent 9-2 start.
At the other end of the sideline, after many years of swings and misses, the Pistons rode a hot late-season wave to creep into the 2016 Playoffs, their first appearance in seven seasons. Much of that run was guided by the wild-shooting point guard Reggie Jackson, who has been out since the preseason to deal with knee and thumb injuries. Jackson hopes to return to the floor soon, but in the meantime, he’s been joined on the IR by another Reggie. Returning recently from injury himself, guard Reggie Bullock tore his meniscus just over a week ago, and will miss at least a couple months.
Jackson’s absence left coach Stan Van Gundy to turn more of the Pistons’ offense over to a lot of young and under-experienced players, including Tobias Harris and Georgia native Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (career-highs of 14.9 PPG, 3.0 APG, 38.1 3FG% and 82.5 FT%). The old-heads in the staring unit include 27-year-old Marcus Morris and 28-year-old Ish Smith (6.1 APG, 1.5 TOs/game), the latter holding the fort until Jackson returns, the former biding time until Stanley Johnson finds his bearings. Andre Drummond (13.2 RPG, 3.6 offensive) capably cleans up the offensive glass while helping make stops in the paint (1.6 SPG, 1.1 BPG).
So even though they’re on pace for a worse finish than the 44-38 recorded last season, and even though they’re doling out the 3rd-highest payroll in the league (thanks to a certain somebody in China; second only to the Cavs in the East), Detroit is perceived as overachieving, and 10-10 looks like a masterstroke of genius for Van Gundy. Blowing out the Hornets (112-89, despite Drummond’s first-half ejection for an elbow; 39.7 opponent shooting) in Charlotte on Tuesday, then running circles around Al Horford’s Celtics in Boston (121-114; 8 offensive rebounds for Drummond) one night later, flavors the soup quite nicely.
Critical to their “success”, SVG isn’t forcing players to do more than they’re capable of doing. Heady play by backup bigs Aron Baynes and Jon Leuer (career-high 6.8 RPG, 2nd on team) allows Drummond adequate rest and keeps him out of foul trouble. They leave it almost exclusively to the point guards to execute catch-and-shoot plays; the assist-turnover ratios of Smith (4.1, 2nd in NBA) and Beni Udrih (3.9) are stellar, and the team’s turnover rate of 11.9 per 100 possessions is the second-best in the league.
Most notably, hardly anyone aside from KCP and Harris (35.3 3FG%) can hit shots from outside, so the team isn’t directed to take many of those shots (22.8% 3-point attempt rate, lowest in NBA). Detroit shoots threes with the exact same inaccuracy (33.3 3FG%) as the Hawks. But while Atlanta jacks up 26.1 tries per game, the Pistons shift those shots (19.8 3FGAs per game) to the interior, where they’re far more capable of scoring (NBA-high 67.2 2FGAs and 32.6 2FGs).
The Pistons score a little less from night to night, by result. But, with decent perimeter D (34.5 opponent 3FG%), superior boxouts (NBA-best 10.9 opponent 2nd-chance PPG; Atlanta’s 14.1 opponent PPG ranks 22nd) and far superior transition D (NBA-best 11.8 opponent PPG off turnovers; Atlanta’s 20.3 opponent PPG is next-to-worst), combined with a slower pace (25th in NBA), Detroit gives up a lot fewer points as well. While Atlanta remains the most defensively efficient team in the league on a per-possession basis, Detroit gives up just 97.5 PPG, 2nd-lowest in the NBA, with an efficiency that ranks 4th-best.
Atlanta’s challenge tonight is to find ways to coax Piston players out of their comfort zones. The offense-defense bench combo of Tim Hardaway, Jr. (21 points, 7-for-10 2FGs @ PHX; now tied with Dwight Howard at 61.9 2FG%) and Thabo Sefolosha (team-high 2.2 SPG; 4.9 RPG, 3rd on team; 5 steals and 8 boards @ PHX) should be up to that task.
Junior, whose pops assists Van Gundy in Detroit, must continue working on his on-ball defense and perimeter shooting while resuscitating his free throw accuracy. The more he rounds out his fullcourt game, the more pressure gets placed on Mike Budenholzer to revisit his unyielding affection for the Bazemorver pair starting at the wing.
When the Pistons shoo Hawk shooters off the 3-point line, Dennis Schröder and Malcolm Delaney need teammates (aside from Howard) able to catch-and-finish in and around the paint, and Hardaway seems to be a good candidate to fill the bill. The Delaney+Hardaway coupling has given the Hawks a net +15.3 points per 100 possessions, best among any Atlanta 2-Man combo with over 200 minutes together (as per Basketball-Reference). The scoring advantage is followed by Millsap+Sefolosha (+14.0) and Millsap+Hardaway (+11.7).
Cutting down the giveaways is paramount, Atlanta’s 15 first-half TOs having put them in an unnecessary hole in Phoenix. But just as troubling are all the transition buckets they’re ceding to opponents. Kent Bazemore is not getting back as effectively as he has in seasons’ past, and Millsap’s mobility has been slowed by injury.
When Schröder gets schloppy and Dwight is hovering around his opponent’s basket, or when Dwight gets sloppy himself, the opposite end has been a virtual layup line for opponents, with just Dennis and Kyle Korver (3 points @ PHX) on their heels in retreat. Hawks opponents are emboldened to push the ball downcourt quickly, and have been granted 13.7 fastbreak PPG (10th most in NBA).
Among NBA players logging 400+ minutes so far, Howard (17.2) and Bazemore (17.1) give up the league’s most and second-most points per-36-minutes off turnovers, with Schröder (16.7, 5th) and Korver (15.9, 9th) not far behind, Millsap (17th) and Mike Muscala (23rd) being brought along for the ride. Relevant to this evening, Detroit’s Morris is the league’s second-most stingy in this regard (8.4), with KCP (8.6) and Ish (8.9) also nearby. If Bazemore continues to struggle with help defense in transition, Budenholzer should look not only to Sefolosha but rookie Taurean Prince to step it up on his behalf.
The second-best team to Detroit in disallowing points off turnovers? Toronto, for whom the Hawks will leave after tonight’s game to face tomorrow. The league’s leading player in points off turnovers And fastbreak points? Russell Westbrook, whose Thunder will arrive here at Thrillips for a game on Monday. So it’s imperative that the Hawks show major improvements in TNT (transition ‘n turnovers), if they intend to keep this season from blowing up early.
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
