“Tinder Love, Love So Tinder. Holding Me Close to You…”
The NCAA doesn’t consider a 7-seed in the West Region beating a 3-seed in the East Region to be an upset. But fans of the Atlanta Hawks would feel just a tiny bit of a letdown if the Atlanta Hawks don’t ground the Houston Rockets (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast) on Swipe Right Night 2.0. After all, the Hawks have been making their case to march back toward a second-straight Final Four.
Not too wild about the prospect of a $20-mill-plus-making Al Horford? The Rockets envy you. They’ve been shelling out that amount for Dwight Howard (61.8 FG%, 2nd in NBA; 28.9 D-Reb%, 6th in NBA) for a few years now, and are poised to compete with themselves this summer by paying him much more. The 30-year-old center has played a steadier role in the Rockets’ halfcourt offense, but still shoots a hack-able 50.4 FT% as his usage has fallen to the level of his rookie season.
The Pride of The SWATS, Howard remains an interior help defender par excellence. But leaving his own assignment unattended leads to performances like Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns (32 points, 13-for-22 FGs, 11 rebounds) yesterday. And it’s Dwight’s Rockets, not the Hawks, who allow a league-high 11.7 O-Rebs per game.
Atlanta’s driving guards will be adequately checked by Patrick Beverley, and shooters by Trevor Ariza (career-high 2.1 SPG), but they can’t cover everybody. Cuts by Hawks forwards and wings will render Howard a paint traffic controller and allow for jumpers galore by Al Horford and Paul Millsap (combined 11-for-20 FGs on Thursday, as the Hawks cruised against depleted Denver).
The one guy who can stop D-12 from returning to Clutch City in free agency also happens to be the team’s other pillar. There have been reports that, ever since the 2014 playoffs, the two have been coming-and-going through GM Daryl Morey’s revolving door and asserting that this one-horse town’s not big enough for the two of them, each Rocket pleading with Morey to work the phones for a deal involving the other guy. The animosity has been evident on the floor as well.
“No chemistry with that group. (Bleep)ing horrible!” That was former Hawks star Jason Terry’s postgame utterance, after a final loss before the All-Star Break sent Houston back below .500. Since Kevin McHale got dispatched in November, that duty of mixing this toxic brew into something palatable has fallen to J.B. Bickerstaff, a finalist for the “At Least You Tried!” award from the Bart Simpson Foundation.
Bickerstaff tried to weave Collipark’s Finest, Clipper outcast Josh Smith, into the starting power forward spot after the Break. Suffice to say, it hasn’t worked out. After Josh shot 30.4 FG%, 21.1 3FG%, and 20.0 FT% while totaling one steal and no blocks in five starts, Bickerstaff has been Smoovely explaining why he’s been DNP-CD’ing Smith in the last seven games.
“Josh is taking care of his body right now, working to get himself healthy,” Bickerstaff said, cryptically, to the Houston Chronicle. “When he got here (from the Clippers, in late January), it had been a while since he played. We kind of thrust him into a position and made him play. His body wasn’t prepared for it at that time. So, he’s taking this time to get his body prepared so he can help us down the stretch.” That’s Bickerstaff’s story, and he’s sticking to it.
In lieu of Smoove, whose body allegedly isn’t ready, the Rockets have been turning to Donatas Motiejunas – yes, the guy who couldn’t pass a physical, nixing his trade to Detroit at the deadline – and Michael Beasley, fresh off of winning MVP in the Chinese Basketball Association and scoring 63 points in the CBA All-Star Game.
Donuts put up 17 points in last night’s home win against the T’wolves, and Beas matched that number coming off the bench against, perhaps ironically to Smith, the team that drafted him. Bickerstaff also likes to go small and shifts Trevor Ariza to the 4-spot on occasion. Back in the Highlight Factory, expect to catch Josh and JET stepping away from the bench to grab a food court slushie when Kiss Cam time comes around tonight.
Houston’s PB didn’t come with much of a J in the past, but Patrick Beverley’s jumper is getting wet (career-best 40.2 3FG%), as demonstrated last night against Minnesota. The Rockets point guard nailed five of his nine three-pointers and still found time to dish out a career-best 10 assists as his pairing with Harden (29 points, 14 assists, 9 TOs, 3 steals) kept the Wolves hungry all night. Hawks guards will need to close out on the perimeter when Beverley or Ariza are hovering. Houston religiously avoids settling for mid-range shots (10.7 FGAs per game, 3.6 fewer than the next-lowest team).
It’s rarely a bad thing to be compared to Artis Gilmore, but Harden is well on his way to relieving the A-Train of an unwanted NBA record. The reigning Player’s Choice MVP is going to blow past Gilmore’s record of 366 turnovers (4.5 per game), compiled while playing for the ne’er-do-well Bulls back in 1977-78. Harden raised his goofs-per-game average on Friday to 4.6, and while the assists are up from his real MVP-runner-up season, they’re not increasing relative to the turnovers.
Harden runs into a Hawks team that ranks 3rd behind Houston (10.2 team SPG) and Boston with 9.3 steals per game. While all the signs are there that this should be a wild back-and-forth game, the Rockets allow 0.5 more PPG off of turnovers, while Atlanta scores a net-positive 2.7 PPG (4th-best in NBA).
The Rockets will push the tempo with Harden looking to run fullcourt and draw contact, allowing the league leader in free throw attempts (career-high 10.5 FTAs per game; 86.7 FT%) to feast from the line. Whether it’s Beverley on Jeff Teague and Dennis Schröder, or Harden on Kyle Korver and Tim Hardaway, Jr., those Hawks have to keep in front of their man and allow forwards to provide help with strips and pass pickoffs. Those help defenders should include a rested Kent Bazemore.
Tonight will feature the rare on-floor meeting of guys who once swiped right on Kardashians. Kris Humphries will provide the requisite help around the paint to keep Howard and Clint Capela from producing second-chance opportunities (13.7 second-chance PPG, 5th in NBA). As is the case with turnover-transition points, the Rockets are a net-negative in this department, allowing 14.4 second-chance PPG (4th-worst in NBA). Expect Millsap, Humphries, and the Hawks’ big men to judiciously try extending Atlanta’s possessions.
The Rockets will want to avenge the 121-115 loss to the Hawks in H-Town back in late December. Howard had 30 points (10-for-12 FGs, 10-for-18 FTs) and Harden added 26 (6-for-16 FGs, 11-for-12 FTs). But after starting out with a 41-25 first quarter and enjoying an 11-point fourth-quarter lead, Houston was overwhelmed by Horford (30 points, 5-for-7 3FGs, 14 rebounds), Teague (22 points, 8 assists, 1 turnover), and Bazemore (26 points, 5-for-9 3FGs), three of four Hawks starters with 20+ points. But for Kyle Korver’s 0-for-10 3FGs, or Schröder being in an abbreviated “player development” exile, it could very well have been five.
Ty Lawson scored 14 points in that defeat, but can’t be kicked around anymore since he was waived in February, putting a lot more of the workload onto Terry. Bickerstaff needs to find enough defensive solutions to keep the Rockets close, and they’ll have to weaken Atlanta’s wing rotation with foul trouble to allow Harden to play Heroball at the close.
With consistent on-ball pressure, transition defense and ball movement on offense, the Hawks can continue giving its fans more reasons to be smitten by what they’ve been accomplishing lately.
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
